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Business Standard
12-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Consumer Price inflation falls to lowest since Feb-19
Ministry of Statistics stated in a latest update that year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of May, 2025 over May, 2024 is 2.82% (Provisional). There is decline of 34 basis points in headline inflation of May, 2025 in comparison to April, 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation after February, 2019. Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for the month of May, 2025 over May, 2024 is 0.99% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for rural and urban are 0.95% and 0.96%, respectively. All India inflation rates for CPI(General) and CFPI over the last 13 months are shown below. A sharp decline of 79 basis point is observed in food inflation in May, 2025 in comparison to April, 2025. The food inflation in May, 2025 is the lowest after October, 2021. The sharp drop in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of May, 2025 is mainly attributed to decline in inflation of Pulses & products, Vegetables, Fruits, Cereals & products, Households goods & services, Sugar & confectionary and Egg and the favourable base effect. Rural Inflation: Significant decline was noted in headline and food inflation in rural sector observed in May, 2025. The headline inflation is 2.59% (Provisional) in May, 2025 while the same was 2.92% in April, 2025. The CFPI based food inflation in rural sector is observed as 0.95% (Provisional) in May, 2025 in comparison to 1.85% in April, 2025. Urban Inflation: Significant decline was noted from 3.36% in April, 2025 to 3.07% (Provisional) in May, 2025 is observed in headline inflation of urban sector. Sharp decline is also observed in food inflation from 1.64% in April, 2025 to 0.96% (Provisional) in May, 2025. Housing Inflation: Year-on-year Housing inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 3.16% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 3.06%. The housing index is compiled for urban sector only. Education Inflation: Year-on-year Education inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 4.12% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 4.13%. Health Inflation: Year-on-year Health inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 4.34% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 4.25%. Transport & Communication: Year-on-year Transport & communication inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 3.85%(Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 3.67%. It is combined inflation rate for both rural and urban sector. Fuel & light: Year-on-year Fuel & light inflation rate for the month of May, 2025 is 2.78%(Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for the month of April, 2025 was 2.92%.
Indian Express
12-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Fall in food prices pulls down May CPI inflation to 2.82%, lowest since Feb 2019
A fall in prices of fruits, pulses, and cereals helped lower India's headline retail inflation rate to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May 2025, acording to data released on Thursday by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), possibly providing some more easing room to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). At 2.82 per cent, the latest inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was somewhat lower than economists' expectations of around 3 per cent. CPI inflation stood at 3.16 per cent in April 2025 and 4.80 per cent in May 2024. The last time retail inflation was lower was in February 2019, when it stood at 2.57 per cent. Per MoSPI data, food inflation as measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) almost halved to a 43-month low of 0.99 per cent last month from 1.78 per cent in April 2025 as fruit prices declined by 2 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) while those of pulses were down 1.7 per cent. Cereals also helped to bring down the overall food inflation in May 2025, with prices down 0.6 per cent compared to the previous month. Prices of vegetables, meanwhile, inched up slightly last month from April 2025. However, in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, retail prices of vegetables were down 13.7 per cent — the sharpest pace of decline since December 2022, according to Paras Jasrai, associate director and economist at India Ratings & Research. Proteins became more expensive on a sequential basis in May 2025. While the price of meat and fish was up 1.5 per cent m-o-m, egg prices rose 2.5 per cent and milk turned 0.7 per cent more expensive in May. Core inflation — which excludes items whose prices are volatile such as food and fuel and is seen as an indicator of underlying demand conditions — inched up to around 4.2 per cent, according to calculations done by The Indian Express. The steady rise in core inflation over the last year-and-a-half or so is suggestive of 'steady demand conditions' in the economy, said Jasrai of India Ratings. In terms of the regional break-up, urban inflation eased to 3.07 per cent in May 2025 from 3.36 per cent the previous month, while rural CPI inflation declined to 2.59 per cent from 2.92 per cent. Inflation in May 2025 was highest in Kerala at 6.46 per cent, while it was lowest in Telangana, at 0.55 per cent. According to Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Group, the downward trend in CPI inflation is expected to continue through October 2025, with averaging for FY26 likely to undershoot the RBI's latest forecast of 3.7 per cent. ICRA Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, expects retail inflation to decline further to around 2.5 per cent in June 2025 and average 3.5 per cent in FY26. 'Looking ahead, on a y-o-y (year-on-year) basis, as many as 17 of the 22 food items for which the daily data is released, recorded a lower y-o-y inflation in June 2025 (until June 10, 2025) vis-à-vis May 2025, barring most edible oils and tea,' Nayar said. 'Moreover, the GoI (Government of India) has reduced the import duty on edible oils effective end-May 2025, which would lead to a softening in prices going forward, thereby auguring well for the oils and fats inflation readings through the fiscal, which would also be suppressed by a high base.' Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge, said that while the India Meteorological Department's forecast of an above-normal monsoon reinforces the favourable outlook for food inflation, the spatial and temporal distribution of the rains will be critical. 'Despite the early onset, monsoon activity has slowed, although it remains early in the season, with potential for recovery in the coming weeks. Weather-related risks will need close monitoring,' Sinha added. While the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last week cut the policy repo rate by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50 per cent, it also tightened the stance of its policy to 'neutral' from 'accommodative', arguing that 'monetary policy is left with very limited space to support growth'. However, economists see the space for more one rate cut from the MPC, although not at the committee's next meeting in August 2025. Jasrai of India Ratings, for instance, expects a status quo on interest rates in August 2025 considering inflation is heading for the RBI's forecast of 2.9 per cent for April-June 2025 and the monetary easing affected so far. 'We expect, at max one more 25 bps cut this fiscal, unless there are surprises from global development or growth declines sharply,' Jasrai said. On Tuesday, the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3 per cent from its January 2025 prediction of 2.7 per cent citing 'heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty'. Growth in 2026 is expected to pick up only slightly to 2.4 per cent and further to 2.6 per cent in 2027. While a global recession is not expected, the World Bank's latest projections for the next two years, should they turn out as forecast, would mean average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s, it said. Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More
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Business Standard
12-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
India's retail inflation dips to over 6-year low of 2.82% in May: Govt data
India's retail inflation dropped to 2.82 per cent in May, down from 3.16 per cent in April, mainly due to a slower increase in food prices, according to government data released on Thursday. Food inflation in rural areas stood at 0.95 per cent and at 0.96 per cent in urban centres. The overall decline was driven by negative year-on-year inflation in vegetables (-13.7 per cent), pulses (-8.22 per cent), and spices (-2.82 per cent). Key staple categories like cereals and sugar witnessed moderate increases, with inflation of 4.77 per cent, and 4.09 per cent, respectively, while milk and oil products saw inflation of 3.15, and 17.91 per cent, respectively. Notably, prices of onions, tomatoes and potatoes registered strong deflation, which weighed heavily on the overall food basket. Meanwhile, prices of pulses dropped 8.22 per cent, following a 5.23 per cent decline in the previous month. May retail inflation: Rural and urban In rural India, headline and food inflation saw a notable drop in May 2025. Provisional data shows rural headline inflation stood at 2.59 per cent in May, down from 2.92 per cent in April. Food inflation, based on the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), also declined to 0.95 per cent in May from 1.85 per cent in the previous month. Urban areas also experienced a decline in inflation. Headline inflation in the urban sector fell to a provisional 3.07 per cent in May 2025, compared to 3.36 per cent in April. Food inflation in cities dropped significantly to 0.96 per cent in May from 1.64 per cent a month earlier. Housing: The year-on-year inflation rate for the housing segment stood at 3.16 per cent in May 2025 (provisional), slightly higher than 3.06 per cent recorded in April. Education: Inflation in the education sector remained largely stable, with a marginal dip to 4.12 per cent in May 2025, compared to 4.13 per cent in April. Health: Health-related inflation rose to 4.34 per cent in May 2025 (provisional), up from 4.25 per cent in the previous month. Transport and communication: The inflation rate for transport and communication increased to 3.85 per cent in May 2025, compared to 3.67 per cent in April. Fuel and light: Inflation in the fuel and light category eased to 2.78 per cent in May 2025, down from 2.92 per cent in April.
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
CPI inflation eases to 2.82% in May, logs 6-year low; food prices lead broad-based decline
India's headline retail inflation fell to 2.82% in May 2025, the lowest year-on-year rate since February 2019, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading was down 34 basis points from 3.16% in April, driven primarily by a sharp moderation in food prices and a favourable base effect. Food inflation, measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), dropped to 0.99% in May, its lowest since October 2021. This represents a steep fall from 1.78% in April and 8.69% in May 2024. The NSO attributed this easing to declining prices across key food categories including pulses, vegetables, fruits, cereals, eggs, sugar, and household goods and services. Rural and urban inflation trends Rural CPI inflation declined to 2.59% in May from 2.92% in April, while rural food inflation dropped to 0.95% from 1.85%. Urban CPI inflation eased to 3.07%, down from 3.36%, with urban food inflation falling to 0.96% from 1.64%. Sectoral inflation overview Housing inflation (urban only): 3.16% (vs 3.06% in April) Education inflation (combined): 4.12% (vs 4.13%) Health inflation (combined): 4.34% (vs 4.25%) Transport & Communication (combined): 3.85% (vs 3.67%) Fuel & Light (combined): 2.78% (vs 2.92%) Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Indian Express
29-05-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Daily subject-wise quiz : Economy MCQs on India's agricultural trade, oilseeds covered under MSP and more (Week 112)
UPSC Essentials brings to you its initiative of subject-wise quizzes. These quizzes are designed to help you revise some of the most important topics from the static part of the syllabus. Attempt today's subject quiz on Economy to check your progress. 🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for May 2025. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at With reference to India's agricultural trade, consider the following statements: 1. India's agriculture exports decreased in 2024-25 from the preceding fiscal year ended March 2024. 2. India agricultural imports have increased in 2024-25 over 2023-24. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 Explanation — India's agricultural exports increased 6.4% to $51.9 billion in 2024-25, up from $48.8 billion in the previous fiscal year, which ended March 2024. This was in contrast to the nearly flat 0.1% increase in the value of its overall goods exports, from $437.1 billion in 2023-24 to $437.4 billion in 2024-25. Hence, statement 1 is not correct. — However, the value of imports was far higher. While total merchandise imports increased by 6.2% between 2023-24 and 2024-24 (from $678.2 billion to $720.2 billion), agriculture imports increased by 17.2%. Hence, statement 2 is correct. — All of this comes as India is negotiating trade agreements with the United States and the European Union, both of which want tariff reductions and increased market access for their agricultural exports. Therefore, option (b) is the correct answer. To read more: How FTAs with US, EU, UK will impact India's farm trade Food and fuel inflation are largely driven by: 1. Rainfall 2. Temperature 3. Production policies of major petroleum exporting nations 4. Weather-related phenomena affecting crop output. Select the correct answer using the codes given below: (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 1, 2 and 4 only (c) 3 and 4 only (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4 Explanation — Between February 8, 2023 and February 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key short-term 'repo' lending rate for banks unchanged at 6.5%. — During the roughly two-year period (February 2023 to January 2025), inflation based on the official consumer price index (CPI) averaged 5.2% year on year. The consumer food price index (CFPI) rose even higher, to 7.6%. — At the same time, the so-called core inflation rate, which removes food and fuel goods from the CPI when calculating yearly price increases, was only 4.1%. Many cited the comparatively low 'core' inflation as sufficient rationale for the RBI's monetary policy council to lower interest rates. — Food and fuel inflation is primarily driven by supply-side factors such as rainfall, temperature, and other weather-related phenomena affecting food output, as well as geopolitical developments and production policies in key petroleum exporting countries. Therefore, option (d) is the correct answer. Consider the following statements: 1. The credit-to-deposit ratio of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) marginally decreased during 2024-25. 2. The gap between credit and deposit growth narrowed, with banks continuing to increase their term deposit rates to mobilise deposits to bridge the funding gap. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 Explanation — During the year 2024-25, the credit-to-deposit ratio of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) grew modestly as bank credit growth exceeded deposit growth. Hence, statement 1 is not correct. — However, the credit-to-deposit growth ratio has reduced, with banks continuing to raise term deposit rates in order to mobilise deposits and bridge the funding gap. Hence, statement 2 is correct. — SCBs saw further improvement in asset quality, as seen by lower gross NPA (GNPA) and net NPA (NNPA) ratios, as well as a continuing fall in the slippage ratio. The provision coverage ratio (PCR) and profitability metrics, such as return on asset (ROA) and return on equity (ROE), were strong, although the net interest margin (NIM) weakened. Therefore, option (b) is the correct answer. (Source: With reference to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), consider the following statements: 1. It seeks to put a tariff of up to 85 per cent on carbon intensive products such as iron, steel and aluminium. 2. It was first proposed by the World Trade Organisation. Which of the statements given above are correct? (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2 Explanation — India's goods exports worth at least $775 million to the UK continue to face the risk of higher duties under its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) despite the conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) earlier this month. — CBAM, a policy first proposed by the European Union and later adopted by the United Kingdom, attempts to impose a 35 per cent tax on carbon-intensive items such as iron, steel, and aluminium. Hence, statements 1 and 2 are not correct. — During discussions, India sought to win an exception for MSMEs from the CBAM policy after exporters informed the Ministry of Commerce and Industry that they were unable to meet the policy's stringent data requirements. Exporters were also concerned that complying with the carbon tax would compromise manufacturers' confidential trade data. — The UK official confirmed that CBAM was not included in the India-UK FTA, stating that these types of measures are typically not included in such agreements. — Arguing that CBAM is not WTO-compliant, India had also proposed a 'rebalancing mechanism' which would require UK to compensate Indian industries for losses incurred due to the policy. Therefore, option (d) is the correct answer. Which of the following oilseeds are covered under the minimum support prices (MSP)? 1. Niger 2. Groundnut 3. Sunflower 4. Soyabean Select the correct answer using the codes given below: (a) 2 and 3 only (b) 2, 3 and 4 (c) 1, 2, 3 and 4 (d) 3 and 4 only Explanation — The Centre announced minimum support prices (MSP) for 14 crops for the 2025-26 Kharif Marketing Season (KMS), with moong seeing the lowest and ragi the highest increase. — In recent years, the government has promoted millet crops such as ragi and jowar, declaring them as Shree Anna. Ragi accounts for only 0.51 percent of the country's gross cropped area and is primarily farmed in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh are the major jowar-producing states. — Among oilseeds, the MSP for niger seed has been established at Rs 9,537 per quintal, 9.41% more than the previous season, and soyabean (yellow) at Rs 5,328 per quintal, 8.91% higher. The MSP for groundnut and sunflower seeds has increased by 7% and 6%, respectively. Therefore, option (c) is the correct answer. To read more: Centre announces MSP hike for 14 Kharif crops; highest for ragi, 3% increase for paddy Sorry for the inconvenience caused. All remaining questions and answers are correctly marked. Daily Subject-wise quiz — History, Culture, and Social Issues (Week 112) Daily subject-wise quiz — Polity and Governance (Week 112) Daily subject-wise quiz — Science and Technology (Week 112) Daily subject-wise quiz — Economy (Week 111) Daily subject-wise quiz — Environment and Geography (Week 111) Daily subject-wise quiz – International Relations (Week 111) Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter and stay updated with the news cues from the past week. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.
