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Economy to slow, inflation to persist above Fed 2% goal: NABE survey
Economy to slow, inflation to persist above Fed 2% goal: NABE survey

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time6 days ago

  • Business
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Economy to slow, inflation to persist above Fed 2% goal: NABE survey

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. The U.S. economy, jarred by the highest tariffs since the 1930s, will likely slow to 1.3% growth this year as inflation persists above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the National Association for Business Economics said Monday, citing a survey of forecasters. Almost four-out-of-five economists (78%) consider import duties the biggest risk to the economy during the next 12 months, followed by 7% who deem geopolitical conflicts as the top risk, NABE said. Nearly half of panelists (49%) expect tariffs to push up inflation this year by between 0.5 and 0.99 percentage point, while 15% see an increase between 1 point and 2 points. 'Most of the panelists look for sluggish economic growth and elevated inflation to persist, at least for this year, and for inflation even to remain a little bit above target next year,' Nationwide Mutual Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic said during an NABE webcast. The impact on oil prices from war between Iran and Israel also threatens to bring about below-trend economic growth and rising price pressures, or 'stagflation,' according to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. A sustained $10 increase in oil prices would stoke inflation by 0.4% and erode gross domestic product by 0.4%, Sløk said in a client note Saturday, citing a Fed model. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged to $77.68 on Thursday during the outbreak of Iran-Israel hostilities before declining to $71.26 on Monday. 'Higher oil prices exacerbate the ongoing stagflation shock stemming from tariffs and immigration restrictions,' Sløk said, referring to how plans by President Donald Trump to deport undocumented workers would reduce the labor supply. Higher long-term interest rates and the resumption of student loan payments also pose headwinds to GDP growth but, along with tariffs and more expensive oil, will probably not cause a recession, Sløk said in a note Monday. Economists downgraded their median forecast for economic growth to 1.3% this year from 1.9% prior to Trump's April 2 announcement of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners, according to NABE. 'Downgrades to consumer spending, residential investment, government consumption expenditures and a larger trade deficit (net exports) drove the downward revision of the median forecasts,' NABE said. The economists' projection is gloomier than recent estimates by the World Bank and OECD, which forecast U.S. GDP growth this year of 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. 'The rise in trade barriers, heightened uncertainty and the spike in financial market volatility are set to weigh on private consumption, international trade and investment,' the World Bank said in a June 10 report. The personal consumption expenditures price index, minus volatile food and energy prices, will likely accelerate this year to 3.3% on a Q4-to-Q4 basis, a 0.5 percentage point increase compared with 2024, the association said, citing the median estimate of 42 economists. So-called core PCE is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. 'Higher inflation says the Fed should be hiking,' Sløk said. 'Lower GDP growth says the Fed should be cutting.' Fed officials on Tuesday will begin a two-day meeting to discuss the economy and monetary policy. Will policymakers 'put more weight on the upward pressure on inflation or more weight on the coming slowdown in growth?' Sløk said. Unemployment will likely average 4.3% this year and rise to 4.7% in 2026, the highest level since 2021, the NABE said. As the economy cools, the Fed will probably trim the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point this year from its current range between 4.25% and 4.5%, and by a half point next year, according to the NABE panel of economists. The quarter-point cuts will likely extend from the third quarter through Q2 next year, NABE said, citing the survey.

Vera Bradley gets new CFO amid leadership shakeup
Vera Bradley gets new CFO amid leadership shakeup

Yahoo

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Vera Bradley gets new CFO amid leadership shakeup

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Fashion and handbag retailer Vera Bradley appointed Coach and Proctor & Gamble alum Martin Layding as its new CFO, effective Thursday, as part of a sweep of executive leadership changes including the departure of the company's CEO, Jacqueline Ardrey, according to a Wednesday press release. Ardrey will remain with the company to ensure an orderly transition until the end of that month. The Fort Wayne-Indiana-based company, which has launched a national search for Ardrey's replacement, appointed another Coach veteran, Ian Bickley, to a newly created position of executive chairman — which is 'expected to be a temporary role during the CEO transition' — effective July 7. The leadership shakeup comes as the fashion brand looks to stem growing losses and shore up declining sales. Vera Bradley on Wednesday also reported a net loss from continuing operations of $18.3 million for its fiscal first quarter ended May 3, compared to a net loss of $7.6 million in the prior year period. Citing its executive and board changes, as well as 'significant uncertainty surrounding the consumer environment,' Vera Bradley also suspended forward guidance 'to allow the new team time to provide input on future strategic and financial expectations,' according to its earnings report. Layding is replacing Michael Schwindle, who stepped down from his position also effective Thursday, according to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Schwindle is set to remain as an employee through June 30 to help with a smooth transition, according to the filing. Prior to joining Vera Bradley, Layding most recently served as finance chief for venture-backed edtech company Noodle, according to his LinkedIn profile. His previous experience also includes serving as CFO for print packaging supplier Rohrer Corporation and in various CFO roles for luxury retailer Coach. He began his career at Procter & Gamble. As CFO for the company, Layding, 54, will receive an annual base salary of $475,000, and will be eligible for a short-term incentive award representing 65% of his base, according to the filing. Upon his employment, he will also receive a long-term incentive grant valued at $525,000, and a cash payment of $150,000. Additionally, for the company's fiscal 2026, he will receive a long-term incentive grant valued at $500,000, the company said. Layding has 'a strong track record of driving operational transformation and rapidly scaling businesses in both the public and private domain,' incoming executive chair Bickley said Wednesday during the company's Q1 2026 earnings call, according to a transcript. 'I have previously worked with Marty and look forward to the significant contribution he can make to improving performance and accelerating the pace of change.' The two executives had overlapping tenures at Coach, with Bickley logging a 25-year career at the brand, including an 11-year stint as its president of Coach International beginning in 2006, according to his LinkedIn profile. Layding, meanwhile, joined the company in 2012 as a division vice president, before assuming roles including CFO of its international business group, CFO, North America, and global CFO before departing in 2018. Vera Bradley's reconstituted leadership team will 'focus on refining our strategy while driving operational efficiencies and cost savings to improve profitability and performance,' Bickley said Wednesday during the earnings call. The company's board 'believes we must accelerate our transformation and improve our results,' he said. Separately Robert Hall, the company's current board chair, will step down from his seat to serve as a director, Vera Bradley said; the retailer has also created a new Strategy and Transformation Committee to 'work closely with incoming leadership in shaping the company's strategic direction and future growth initiatives,' according to the Wednesday release. Vera Bradley declined to comment beyond its press release. Recommended Reading UPS CFO set to depart, citing health Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

IBM's Apptio targets ‘AI sprawl' in latest FinOps rollout
IBM's Apptio targets ‘AI sprawl' in latest FinOps rollout

Yahoo

time13-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

IBM's Apptio targets ‘AI sprawl' in latest FinOps rollout

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Apptio, an IBM company, has expanded its technology business management suite with a new tool designed to help organizations control their artificial intelligence spending, according to a recent announcement. The 'AI TCO [Total Cost of Ownership] and Usage' tool enables enterprises to continuously monitor AI initiatives across their full lifecycle, providing visibility into not only costs and usage, but also return on investment considerations, the company said. 'This new solution helps to bring in all the different components that contribute to AI total cost of ownership, including your labor, infrastructure and software stack costs,' Jenny Fong, vice president of product marketing at Apptio, said in an interview. 'This is really going to help organizations get ahead of AI sprawl.' Apptio's new tool, announced June 5, joins an expanding portfolio of technology business management and FinOps offerings. In its latest rollout, the company also introduced a product designed to provide companies with a mix of both traditional on-premises and cloud-based software resources gain visibility into financial impacts of application migrations. The Hybrid IT TCO Impact tool provides a 'dedicated financial view into application migrations, tracking cost shifts and ROI across the hybrid IT landscape,' according to a press release. Global IT spending is expected to total $5.61 trillion in 2025, a 9.8% increase compared with 2024, Gartner projected in January. However, President Donald Trump's tariff announcements have since injected uncertainty into the IT market, according to IDC analysts. In a Boston Consulting Group survey conducted in April, 44% of IT leaders said their organization had deferred discretionary tech projects in the wake of the president's tariff announcements, according to results released last month. 'The one bright spot in IT leaders' plans is their ongoing commitment to AI,' BCG said in a report on the findings. 'Despite the current uncertainty, fully half say that they plan to expand their supplier base for this key technology in the near term.' While AI investment has become a strategic priority in recent years, CEOs say that only 25% of such initiatives have delivered the expected ROI, according to a May IBM report. Sixty-four percent of surveyed chief executives acknowledged that the risk of falling behind drives investment in some technologies before they have a clear understanding of the value they bring to the organization. Apptio's AI TCO product can assist organizations with evaluating whether AI initiatives are incurring costs without corresponding business value or usage, according to Fong. She said it can also help provide visibility into whether some business units are consuming AI resources more than others, or whether a team is paying for a new AI application that has not been reviewed by IT or one that duplicates a tool that is already being used elsewhere in the organization. Prior to the latest rollout, Apptio customers could track technology and cloud costs at a high level, but with the recent surge in AI adoption and usage, the company saw greater need for a dedicated tool to not only track AI costs but correlate them with business outcomes, ROI and adoption, Fong said. 'It's about addressing a pervasive and growing concern for most organizations in a simple, straightforward manner that saves the time, effort and resources it would take to build this themselves,' she said. Recommended Reading IBM's Apptio unit 'refines' AI tool, eyes early 2025 rollout

Ex-Real Brokerage CFO alleges pregnancy discrimination in suit
Ex-Real Brokerage CFO alleges pregnancy discrimination in suit

Yahoo

time12-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Ex-Real Brokerage CFO alleges pregnancy discrimination in suit

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. The former finance chief of Miami-based Real Brokerage alleges she was discriminated against based on her gender and pregnancy status, and ultimately fired to 'clear the way for her less qualified and unencumbered male successor,' according to the complaint filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York Tuesday. Michelle Ressler disclosed her pregnancy to her former employer in January 2024, and was fired for cause and 'pretextual' reasons in April, the filing states. While Real Brokerage said an internal audit had revealed Ressler had improperly charged eight personal expenses totaling $17,440 to a company bank card, the suit asserts that $15,946 of those charges, which were related to airfare, were an 'oversight' that she offered to repay, and that $1,493 in entertainment expenses were business-related. The suit also states that charges were not the reason for her firing. Instead, she asserted the company 'needed to manufacture a reason that it could spin as misconduct and, relatedly, sell to the board to mask the company's discriminatory and retaliatory decision to remove its high-performing CFO.' Real Brokerage declined to comment. On April 24, one day after the suit asserts Ressler was terminated, the online real estate brokerage tapped Ravi Jani to become its CFO, effective immediately. Jani, who joined the company as vice president of investor relations and FP&A in 2023, previously held investment analyst roles at the hedge fund Citadel and began his career in investment banking at Bank of America and Moelis and Company, the release states. Within weeks of disclosing Ressler was pregnant, the suit alleges the company reassigned her core business units to other staff who 'did not have babies,' suggested she could not be an effective CFO and a mother and waged a 'steady campaign to sideline her and ultimately oust her.' Ressler, 40, is a first-time mother who arrived at the company in 2020 when it had just $16 million in annual revenue, with the suit asserting she helped scale the company and its annual revenue to over $1.3 billion in annual revenue. 'Under her leadership, in less than five years, the Company grew from a fledgling startup to a major player in the real estate technology sector,' the suit states. But, 'rather than reward Ms. Ressler for her unwavering dedication and hard work, defendants decided to get rid of her because she started a family and dared to challenge the company's questionable and potentially unlawful conduct.' Ressler is seeking relief that includes a declaration that the acts and practices violate the Family and Medical Leave Act as well as back pay and compensation for future lost wages and benefits. Recommended Reading Gain biotech CFO aims past burn to budget for growth Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Inflation cools more than predicted as companies draw down inventories
Inflation cools more than predicted as companies draw down inventories

Yahoo

time12-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Inflation cools more than predicted as companies draw down inventories

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Inflation eased more than forecast last month as companies drew down inventories that they stockpiled before the imposition of tariffs rather than pass on price increases to consumers. The consumer price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in May and 2.8% over a 12-month period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. The 12-month figure matches the rate in March and April and is the lowest annual gain in four years. 'Great numbers,' Conference Board Senior U.S. Economist Yelena Shulyatyeva said during a webcast, adding 'where are all the tariffs?' Still, prices rose for some tariff-sensitive goods such as appliances, and prices for apparel, vehicles and other goods will probably increase and peak during the third quarter as companies reduce pre-tariff inventories, she said. Slowing inflation and signs of labor market stability reinforce the wait-and-see stance of the Federal Reserve as it forgoes policy changes and assesses the impact from the highest U.S. tariffs since the 1930s, economists said. 'One more month where inflation just didn't show up,' Global X Head of Investment Strategy Scott Helfstein said, while cautioning that 'tariffs remain a risk.' 'The Fed should feel comfortable with these numbers,' he said Wednesday in an email. Policymakers will probably leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting on June 18 and end 2025 having made two quarter-point cuts, Helfstein said. Traders in interest rate futures see a 79% chance that the central bank will trim the main interest rate by at least 0.5 percentage point by the end of this year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. They set the odds of a reduction next week at virtually zero. An easing in global trade tensions may reduce inflation risks, according to economists. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. and China, the world's largest economies, completed negotiations on a trade agreement, although it remains subject to final approval by Trump and China President Xi Jinping. Under the proposed deal, the U.S. would levy a 55% tariff on imports from China, Trump said. Meanwhile, China would maintain 10% import duties, a figure in line with the rate the countries in May agreed to set during a 90-day reprieve on far higher tariffs. The proposed agreement also includes concessions by China related to the export of magnets and rare earths, according to Trump. In exchange, the U.S. will walk back threats to revoke visas for students from China, among other provisions. 'The marked reduction in tariffs on Chinese products, along with numerous changes in other levies, suggest that the president is flexible in his plans and thus the final duties will probably be less severe than those announced on April 2,' Mike Moran, an economist at Haver Analytics, said Tuesday in a note included in a Wolters Kluwer survey of economists. The surveyed economists predicted, in a median estimate, that the CPI will rise 3% this year. The prices of commodities excluding food and energy did not change last month, in part because of a decline in the prices for apparel and both new and used cars, according to the BLS data. While food prices rose 0.3% in May, energy prices fell 1%, largely because of a 2.6% pullback in gasoline prices. A 0.3% gain in shelter prices 'was the primary factor' behind the monthly gain in CPI, the BLS said. Recommended Reading Consumer spending falls, highlighting fading confidence Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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