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The Age
17 hours ago
- Business
- The Age
Oil prices have jumped. Do you need to run to the petrol station?
Chalmers has spent the week spruiking his latest plans to boost our living standards – but oil prices have clearly trickled to the front of his mind. This might have consequences for Australians at the petrol bowser, he told ABC Radio on Thursday, but there's also a lot of concern about what it might mean for inflation, and it's a 'dangerous time' for the global economy. But how much of a worry should it really be? Well, first, it's important to remember just how much we rely on oil. In 2022-23, oil was our most important type of fuel, making up nearly 40 per cent of Australia's energy use. That's not even accounting for the other ways we use it: to produce plastics, chemicals, lubricants and the sticky stuff we use to pave roads. Petrol is the single biggest weekly expense for most households, and it affects transport and energy costs for nearly all our businesses. Basically, changes in the price of oil ripple through nearly every crevice of the country. Loading A shortage of oil makes business harder – and in some cases, impossible – to do, strangling the supply of many goods. If Iran decides to shut the Strait of Hormuz – a key shipping route that carries tens of millions of barrels of oil every day – the delays and additional costs of taking longer routes will drive up costs further. Those costs will probably be passed on through higher prices by businesses – and not just those directly dealing the stuff through petrol pumps. The price of oil itself is determined, like most things, by the forces of demand and supply. But it's also affected by expectations of supply and demand. Most of the time, the physical product doesn't even change hands. Instead, the market is largely made up of buyers and sellers who enter into 'futures' contracts, which are legal agreements to buy or sell something (in this case, oil) at a particular price and time in the future. It's a bet of sorts: buyers are hoping the price they lock themselves into will be lower than it will be in the future, and sellers are hoping it will be higher. When Brent Crude Oil and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – two types of oil futures – surged 13 per cent last week, that reflected worries, not just about a short-term dip in supply, but concerns that the conflict could worsen. But even so, the oil market hasn't moved as crazily as we might have expected. As Dr Adi Imsirovic points out, Iran itself only accounts for about 2 per cent of the world's oil supply, shipping most of it to China, and while a sudden drop in Iranian oil exports would usually trigger stronger panic, there's a few factors keeping it in check – for now. Loading First, Iran is part of a big group of oil exporters known as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces about 40 per cent of the world's crude oil. OPEC, because of the huge share of oil it produces, tends to co-ordinate the amount of oil its members supply to the world to keep prices from falling through the floor (and profits from slipping too much). It just so happens that OPEC is in the middle of reversing production cuts it imposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving it with an unusually large spare capacity of roughly 4 million barrels a day – mostly held by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And although there are worries about the Strait of Hormuz being closed, Imsirovic says there are alternative supply routes. That's not to say we won't feel anything here in Australia. The increased risk of wider conflict in the Middle East means oil prices – and especially oil futures – have jumped. And shipping costs have sailed higher, including the cost of insurance for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz which has climbed 60 per cent since the start of the war. Loading We don't import our oil directly from Iran, buying most of it from countries such as South Korea, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore. But the cost of petrol in Australia will probably rise over the next few weeks because Australian fuel prices are pegged to international benchmarks. And because Australia doesn't exist in a vacuum, the slowdown in economies worldwide – from the uncertainty, higher costs and delays – will undoubtedly have a knock-on effect for our economy. Slower growth and higher inflation will challenge the Reserve Bank, which next month must decide which way to take the country's interest rates. If the US central bank's decision this week is anything to go by, the Reserve Bank will probably keep rates on hold to see how things play out. The panic in oil markets has seemed to wear off a little since Israel's attack on Iran, but it will only last so long as the conflict doesn't escalate. There's no crisis in oil markets yet, but your bill at the bowser might come in a little higher over the next few weeks. As long as the global economy is stuck in limbo, don't be surprised if our economy isn't running like a well-oiled machine.
Sydney Morning Herald
17 hours ago
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Oil prices have jumped. Do you need to run to the petrol station?
Chalmers has spent the week spruiking his latest plans to boost our living standards – but oil prices have clearly trickled to the front of his mind. This might have consequences for Australians at the petrol bowser, he told ABC Radio on Thursday, but there's also a lot of concern about what it might mean for inflation, and it's a 'dangerous time' for the global economy. But how much of a worry should it really be? Well, first, it's important to remember just how much we rely on oil. In 2022-23, oil was our most important type of fuel, making up nearly 40 per cent of Australia's energy use. That's not even accounting for the other ways we use it: to produce plastics, chemicals, lubricants and the sticky stuff we use to pave roads. Petrol is the single biggest weekly expense for most households, and it affects transport and energy costs for nearly all our businesses. Basically, changes in the price of oil ripple through nearly every crevice of the country. Loading A shortage of oil makes business harder – and in some cases, impossible – to do, strangling the supply of many goods. If Iran decides to shut the Strait of Hormuz – a key shipping route that carries tens of millions of barrels of oil every day – the delays and additional costs of taking longer routes will drive up costs further. Those costs will probably be passed on through higher prices by businesses – and not just those directly dealing the stuff through petrol pumps. The price of oil itself is determined, like most things, by the forces of demand and supply. But it's also affected by expectations of supply and demand. Most of the time, the physical product doesn't even change hands. Instead, the market is largely made up of buyers and sellers who enter into 'futures' contracts, which are legal agreements to buy or sell something (in this case, oil) at a particular price and time in the future. It's a bet of sorts: buyers are hoping the price they lock themselves into will be lower than it will be in the future, and sellers are hoping it will be higher. When Brent Crude Oil and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – two types of oil futures – surged 13 per cent last week, that reflected worries, not just about a short-term dip in supply, but concerns that the conflict could worsen. But even so, the oil market hasn't moved as crazily as we might have expected. As Dr Adi Imsirovic points out, Iran itself only accounts for about 2 per cent of the world's oil supply, shipping most of it to China, and while a sudden drop in Iranian oil exports would usually trigger stronger panic, there's a few factors keeping it in check – for now. Loading First, Iran is part of a big group of oil exporters known as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces about 40 per cent of the world's crude oil. OPEC, because of the huge share of oil it produces, tends to co-ordinate the amount of oil its members supply to the world to keep prices from falling through the floor (and profits from slipping too much). It just so happens that OPEC is in the middle of reversing production cuts it imposed early in the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving it with an unusually large spare capacity of roughly 4 million barrels a day – mostly held by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And although there are worries about the Strait of Hormuz being closed, Imsirovic says there are alternative supply routes. That's not to say we won't feel anything here in Australia. The increased risk of wider conflict in the Middle East means oil prices – and especially oil futures – have jumped. And shipping costs have sailed higher, including the cost of insurance for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz which has climbed 60 per cent since the start of the war. Loading We don't import our oil directly from Iran, buying most of it from countries such as South Korea, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore. But the cost of petrol in Australia will probably rise over the next few weeks because Australian fuel prices are pegged to international benchmarks. And because Australia doesn't exist in a vacuum, the slowdown in economies worldwide – from the uncertainty, higher costs and delays – will undoubtedly have a knock-on effect for our economy. Slower growth and higher inflation will challenge the Reserve Bank, which next month must decide which way to take the country's interest rates. If the US central bank's decision this week is anything to go by, the Reserve Bank will probably keep rates on hold to see how things play out. The panic in oil markets has seemed to wear off a little since Israel's attack on Iran, but it will only last so long as the conflict doesn't escalate. There's no crisis in oil markets yet, but your bill at the bowser might come in a little higher over the next few weeks. As long as the global economy is stuck in limbo, don't be surprised if our economy isn't running like a well-oiled machine.
The Citizen
2 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Inflation unchanged in May at 2.8% as economists expected
While the inflation rate remained under the bottom band of the Reserve Bank's inflation target, it is not expected to stay there. The inflation rate remained unchanged in May at 2.8% as economists expected, but geopolitical risks could see it drift higher than expected in the months ahead. Statistics South Africa (Statistics SA) announced on Wednesday morning that the inflation rate remained the same as in April, with food prices being the only category that pushed inflation up in May by 0.2% compared to April. Jee-A van der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, says the outcome was in line with their expectations, and they continue to see a mild increase in price inflation heading into the second half of 2025. The main contributors to the inflation rate in May were housing and utilities, which increased by 4.5% and contributed 1.0 percentage point, food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased by 4.8% and contributed 0.9 percentage point and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, which increased by 4.3% and contributed 0.2 percentage point. Statistics SA noted that higher meat prices (+4.4%) were a key driver of prices, with the biggest monthly increase recorded for beef products. Van der Linde points out that South Africa is in the grip of a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which intensified in June and will have an impact on domestic food prices going forward. ALSO READ: Inflation steady in May but food prices still increased Fuel levy offset lower fuel prices in May, keeping inflation at 2.8% 'Elsewhere, the latest data shows that domestic fuel prices declined further in June, but this is likely to be offset by the simultaneous increase in general fuel levies this month. Mid-month fuel prices data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that petrol and diesel are likely to cost more in July after the latest upsurge in international oil prices.' He also notes that international oil prices rallied after Israel's strikes on Iran, with Brent Crude Oil prices briefly hitting $80.0 per barrel before settling around $74 per barrel. 'Due to the flare-up in tensions in the Middle East, we now forecast Brent Crude Oil prices to average $67.8 per barrel in 2025, slightly higher than our previous estimate of $67.3 per barrel. 'While oil supply remains unaffected, further escalation could see Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off around 20% of global supply and potentially driving prices to $120 per barrel. At that point, oil prices would be near the levels recorded when Russia invaded Ukraine and domestic fuel prices shot up to record levels.' However, Van der Linde says the latest inflation data does not alter their updated inflation outlook, and they still forecast inflation will average 3.4% in 2025 compared to 4.4% in 2024. 'Although headline inflation will drift higher throughout the second half of the year due to base effects, the overall outlook remains benign and unchanged from our earlier views, although several risks have emerged recently that could lead to prices increasing faster.' ALSO READ: What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy Risks to inflation outlook worsened over past few days Busisiwe Nkonki and Johannes (Matimba) Khosa, economists at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, also expect inflation to drift upwards in the second half of the year, but still average a muted 3.5% in 2025. However, they say, risks to the inflation outlook have worsened in recent days as the rand weakened, and global oil prices jumped due to the conflict in the Middle East. 'Food prices will increase as the base continues to normalise. However, favourable crop prices resulting from good rainfall, as well as increased livestock slaughtering, will contain the upside. The biggest concern is the rand. 'While the domestic currency has been resilient in recent weeks, it remains vulnerable to unfavourable global economic and geopolitical developments. 'The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) will have to weigh the benign inflation outlook against the potential upside risks emanating from the highly volatile and uncertain global environment. At this stage, we still see room for the Sarb to cut further in July.'
The Citizen
2 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy
The Israel-Iran conflict definitely rattled world markets and might affect the fuel price if it does not stop within the next few days. In a globalised world, what happens on one continent invariably affects the rest of the world, and the conflict between Israel and Iran will probably be no different. Oil prices have become volatile, while investors go for gold as a safe haven, and the rand feels the shock. Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG, says the impact of the conflict between Israel and Iran on global markets, including South Africa, will depend on two key factors. 'Firstly, the scale of the conflict matters. Will it escalate, and will other nations become involved by taking sides? 'If the conflict intensifies beyond what we are currently witnessing, the impact will be far more significant. Secondly, the duration of the conflict also matters. If it is resolved swiftly, the effects on the markets will likely be limited. 'The impact will be felt in two ways. Firstly, through the oil price, and we have already seen an increase since the onset of the conflict. Secondly, through the exchange rate, the rand has already depreciated due to heightened uncertainty, which could lead to inflationary pressure on the local economy and the possibility of interest rates remaining higher for longer.' Blackmore says that given that both oil and the exchange rate affect the impact of the cost of transporting people and goods around the economy, the inflationary impact will be shifted down onto the consumer in the form of higher inflation. The Reserve Bank may then be forced to maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. ALSO READ: Israel vs Iran: Why you may soon have to pay more for petrol in South Africa Israel-Iran conflict already rattled global markets Sanisha Packirisamy, chief economist at Momentum Investments, says the intensifying sectarian conflict between Israel and Iran, driven by Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities and Iran's subsequent missile responses, has indeed rattled global markets. 'Oil prices spiked by more than 10%, with international Brent Crude Oil prices briefly reaching $78 per barrel due to concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital oil corridor for global oil supply. Although prices later stabilised, ongoing tensions could fuel inflation, constraining central banks' flexibility to lower interest rates in 2025, particularly against the backdrop of a protectionist environment marked by higher trade and tariff barriers.' Packirisamy, also points out that equity markets saw initial declines but later recovered as hopes for de-escalation grew, particularly with the US reaffirming its defensive rather than offensive position. 'Safe-haven assets, including gold, US treasuries and the US dollar, gained traction amid rising uncertainty.' ALSO READ: SA economy expected to improve in 2025, but geopolitical risks remain Geopolitical shocks historically have fleeting impact She says historically, geopolitical shocks tend to have fleeting market impact unless they significantly impair economic growth or trigger stagflation. 'Currently, Iran's oil exports remain mostly unaffected, with their domestic markets largely targeted so far. 'OPEC's spare capacity also has the ability to mitigate global oil supply concerns, given that spare capacity could match any shortfall from Iran. However, prolonged conflict or a blockade of the Strait could drive oil prices significantly higher, threatening global economic stability. 'However, blocking the Strait would prevent their own shipments from getting out and could trigger retaliation from other exporters.' Packirisamy also notes that signs of diplomatic efforts, particularly from the US administration, will be critical to watch, given that a de-escalation in the conflict and a lower risk of spilling over into a broader-based regional conflict are necessary for market normalisation. ALSO READ: Policy Uncertainty Index drops sharply due to various local and global risks Volatile oil prices due to Israel-Iran conflict George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, also notes that oil prices are volatile as the conflict continues. He says similar incidents in recent years amounted to a limited exchange, with Iran's response typically sufficient to demonstrate domestic strength without escalating tensions further. So far, he says, this conflict has proved to be more brutal than other recent escalations. 'Even so, it remains a direct exchange of fire between Iran and Israel with minimal disruption to the oil market. 'The US and several Middle Eastern nations, including those that already condemned the attacks, such as the UAE and Saudi, have no interest in a flare-up of tensions in the region, nor do they wish for disruption of global oil markets. Previously, they intervened to calm situations like this. 'Israel has stated that the operation will continue for 'as many days' as it takes to remove the Iranian threat, but hostilities could settle if Middle Eastern countries and the US mediate a resolution.' Brown says the likelihood of Iran taking any action in the Strait of Hormuz, the often-touted disaster scenario for oil markets, appears remote. 'Such action would impact flows for the other Middle East nations, which are aiming to mediate the situation, while inflicting little harm on Israel.' ALSO READ: Weekly economic wrap: Dramatic jumps for gold and oil Oil facilities not primary target in Israel/Iran conflict Iranian oil supply makes up 3.5% of the global supply. However, Brown says Israel's stated aim has been to impede Iran's nuclear program, consistent with the fact that most strikes so far targeted Iranian nuclear and military facilities. 'While oil production facilities remain a potential target for Israel, it has yet to target them directly, quite possibly restrained by the knowledge that pushing oil prices higher would damage its relationship with its allies, such as the US.' Outside of the conflict, Brown points out that other dynamics in the market continue to point to a global market oil surplus continuing to build in the coming months. 'Although oil prices are sensitive to this type of conflict, as in previous similar events, the initial price rise moderated in the following hours. 'If Brent Crude settled at $75 per barrel, it would imply that G7 energy inflation would be a little above 5% over the next year.' Would this lead to broader inflationary pressure? Brown says probably not. 'Our previous research on the relationship between oil prices and inflation suggests that every 10% rise in oil prices adds just 0.1% to core inflation.' ALSO READ: Trump's ultimatum undermines US credibility If US joins, Israel-Iran conflict could push oil price higher Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, warns that tensions are rising in the Middle East, with speculation mounting that the US could soon join the ongoing conflict. 'High-level security meetings and strong public statements have added to the sense of urgency, while both Israel and Iran appear determined to escalate the conflict after several days of hostilities.' She says these developments pushed oil prices higher, as markets brace for the possibility of a broader confrontation. 'Asian stocks have been mixed, while Wall Street closed in the red. Investors are also cautious ahead of a key monetary policy decision from the Fed today. 'Expectations are that rates will remain unchanged, but it is the forward guidance that will play a critical role in market dynamics. The dollar has softened, and emerging market assets are under pressure as traders weigh both geopolitical risks and uncertainty over future US interest rate moves. 'Risk appetite remains subdued as global markets await further clarity.' The rand is under pressure amid risk-off sentiment, trading at R17.98/$, R20.68/€ and R24.17/£, Botes says.
The Citizen
7 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Weekly economic wrap: Dramatic jumps for gold and oil
Missiles and drones raining on Iran from Israel had an immediate effect on the global and local economy, with the prices of oil and gold increasing. Bad news about the South African economy was overshadowed by the end of the week with Israel's attack on Iran that immediately sent the prices of gold and Brent Crude Oil rocketing as investors invested in the safe haven of gold and fears escalated of disruption in oil supply. Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), says the economic story for the week was initially relatively positive, with the overarching narrative that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. 'However, overnight, Israel struck Iran's nuclear facilities and military sites and killed senior commanders in dozens of strikes. While Israel attacked Iran before, this is the first time nuclear facilities were purposefully targeted, with those being 'at the heart' of the operation, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.' She points out that the oil price spiked by more than 4% to a two-month high amid concerns of renewed unrest in the Middle East mid-week, but came off those highs when a risk-off mood returned in global markets. 'This morning, Brent Crude futures jumped by 12% to about $78/barrel. Currency markets settled following an initial knee-jerk reaction after the news of the attack broke. The extent of the retaliation will determine much of the market and global reaction. The US was quick to state it was not involved and warned Iran not to target the US.' ALSO READ: Economic activity picked up for the first time in 8 months in May Dramatic jump for oil and a substantial rally for gold Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, also noted that the price of Brent Crude Oil, the global benchmark for petroleum prices, jumped dramatically to approximately $76 per barrel this morning, its strongest level since February. 'This sharp increase occurred after Israel's surprise military attack on Iran overnight, which created serious concerns about potential oil supply interruptions across the global market. The situation escalated when Israel announced a state of emergency, indicating that Iranian retaliation against Israeli locations could happen soon.' She says this development raised fears about a wider regional war that could affect the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil transport. Botes points out that gold prices experienced a substantial rally, climbing over 1% to surpass $3,440/ounce in the early hours of this morning, nearing all-time highs as investors seek safe haven assets. 'The precious metal's surge directly followed Israel's military action against Iran, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming that the strikes targeted Iran's nuclear facilities while acknowledging Iran's continued ability to respond. 'Beyond the Middle Eastern conflict, gold received additional support from uncertainty surrounding American trade policies. President Trump's threats to implement unilateral tariffs on trading partners created further market anxiety, although US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the current 90-day tariff suspension might be extended.' ALSO READ: Structural reform is silver bullet needed for SA economy to grow – OECD Oil price highest since April, gold jumps 3.2% for the week Busisiwe Nkonki and Isaac Matshego, economists at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, note that Brent Crude Oil is hovering around $72.43 a barrel this morning, its highest level since 3 April, up by 5% since Friday last week. 'Oil prices were already under increasing pressure early in the week on reports that the US-Iran nuclear talks had deadlocked. 'Gold has jumped by 3.2% for the week to $3 418 this morning, while platinum is down by 1.7% overnight after strong investor demand briefly propelled it through $1 300 an ounce on Thursday.' ALSO READ: R26 billion rescue from World Bank: Can the loan save Eskom and Transnet? Rand folds under the pressure of possible war in the Middle East Botes says the rand experienced significant pressure during trade on Thursday and early this morning, coming off its recent highs and resuming a sideways trend. 'The weakness in the rand is largely driven by the rebound in the dollar, while increased geopolitical tension and renewed trade tensions drove flight to safe-haven assets.' Nkonki and Matshego, say the rand dropped sharply overnight, breaking through R18/$ as global risk aversion jumped after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites. 'The assault added to the tensions that simmered early in the week after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear programme with the 60-day deadline stipulated by US President Donald Trump. 'The rand is trading around R17.96/$ this morning, its weakest level since 30 May. It touched R17.69/$ on Tuesday, its highest level since the second week of December, buoyed by investor demand for higher-yielding assets.' The rand was trading at R17.91/$ on Friday afternoon. ALSO READ: Manufacturing output falls sharply and unexpectedly in March Manufacturing production worse than consensus forecast According to Statistics SA, manufacturing production decreased by 6.3% in April, after a downwardly revised 1.2% decrease in March. Nomvelo Moima, economist at the BER, says the headline figure came in worse than the consensus forecast, which anticipated a 4.5% decline in output. Weakness was reported across the board, with nine out of the ten main subsectors contracting. The biggest drags on annual output came from food and beverages (-7.6%), metals and machinery (-6.3%) and motor vehicle parts and accessories (-13%). However, she says, on the positive side, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production increased by a better-than-expected 1.9%, up from a 2.5% decline in March. 'April marked the sixth consecutive annual decline in manufacturing output, consistent with the Absa PMI, which remained in contractionary territory over the same period. 'Therefore, a further decline in May's PMI suggests we could see another month of lacklustre activity in the manufacturing sector.' ALSO READ: Manufacturing experts urge SA to turn more raw materials into products Better start to the year for manufacturing production despite decline Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, Thanda Sithole and Koketso Mano, economists at FNB, say despite the decline, it is nonetheless a moderately better start to the second quarter of 2025, although the persistent annual decline underscores ongoing unfavourable operating conditions and is consistent with their assessment of downside risks to the near-term economic growth outlook. Nkonki and Matshego say the contraction in manufacturing production steepened in April, with output falling by 6.3% from -1.2% in March. 'The sharper drop in output was driven by the increase in public holidays this year compared to 2024. Nonetheless, the sector continues to struggle due to inefficiencies in the logistics network and subdued domestic and global demand. 'These circumstances have led to ample spare capacity, high operating costs and weak commodity prices.' ALSO READ: SA's shrinking mining sector and the policies that brought us here Bigger than expected contraction in mining production Mining activity also revealed a downside surprise compared to the consensus expectation of a -4% decrease. According to Statistics SA, annual mining output plunged by 7.8% in April, down from an upwardly revised 2.5% contraction in March. The biggest drag came from a fall in the production of platinum group metals (-24%) followed by gold (-2.5%) and coal (-1.7%) which both shaved off -0.3% percentage points from the annual figure, while iron ore made the largest positive contribution to output (+5.3%). Moima says on a positive note for quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) dynamics, mining production ticked up by 0.6% month-on-month, after a 3.6% increase in March. Nkonki and Matshego point out that the contraction in mining continued for a sixth consecutive month in April, registering a sharper decline of 7.7% from -2.8% in March. 'More public holidays in April this year, combined with the struggles on the logistics front and subdued commodity prices, contributed to the weakness.' Matikinca-Ngwenya, Mkhwanazi, Sithole and Mano say the contraction in mining production marks the sixth consecutive month of annual decline. 'The outcome was worse than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 4.0% decline and largely reflected the disruptive impact of breakdowns and third-party supply issues affecting platinum group metals.
