Latest news with #BenchmarkMineralsIntelligence
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Global cobalt market seen swinging to deficit from surplus in early 2030s
LONDON (Reuters) -Demand for cobalt will rise faster than supply, allowing the market to reduce the 2024 surplus in coming years and swing to a deficit in the early 2030s, the Cobalt Institute said in a research on Wednesday. In the short term, the future of the cobalt market depends on what the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's top producer of the mineral used to make the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, decides to do after its four-month export ban, imposed in late February. The central African country imposed the ban to tackle the market glut, which saw cobalt prices at a nine-year low at end-February. Since then, prices rose 60% to $16 a lb.,. Excluding the uncertainty regarding the DRC's export ban, global cobalt supply will be rising at a CAGR of 5% in coming years, with the DRC seeing its market share decline from last year's 76% of global primary cobalt supply, as Indonesia ramps up output more quickly. By 2030, the DRC is expected to see a market share of 65%, while Indonesia's share will rise to 22% from 12% in 2024, the Cobalt Institute said in a research, prepared for it by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. Meanwhile, cobalt demand, excluding government stockpiling, is expected to show the growth of 7% CAGR, hitting 400,000 metric tons by the early 2030s mainly due to the EV market expansion. Last year, cobalt consumption reached 222,000 tons. By 2030, EVs will account for 57% of cobalt demand vs 43% in 2024 with other segments of use such as mobile phones, laptops, superalloys, and other industrial sectors seeing slower growth. In 2024, the cobalt market was in a surplus of 36,000 tons, or 15% of demand, up from 25,000 tons in 2023, the report said.
Reuters
14-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Global cobalt market seen swinging to deficit from surplus in early 2030s
LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - Demand for cobalt will rise faster than supply, allowing the market to reduce the 2024 surplus in coming years and swing to a deficit in the early 2030s, the Cobalt Institute said in a research on Wednesday. In the short term, the future of the cobalt market depends on what the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world's top producer of the mineral used to make the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, decides to do after its four-month export ban, imposed in late February. The central African country imposed the ban to tackle the market glut, which saw cobalt prices at a nine-year low at end-February. Since then, prices rose 60% to $16 a lb. , . Excluding the uncertainty regarding the DRC's export ban, global cobalt supply will be rising at a CAGR of 5% in coming years, with the DRC seeing its market share decline from last year's 76% of global primary cobalt supply, as Indonesia ramps up output more quickly. By 2030, the DRC is expected to see a market share of 65%, while Indonesia's share will rise to 22% from 12% in 2024, the Cobalt Institute said in a research, prepared for it by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. Meanwhile, cobalt demand, excluding government stockpiling, is expected to show the growth of 7% CAGR, hitting 400,000 metric tons by the early 2030s mainly due to the EV market expansion. Last year, cobalt consumption reached 222,000 tons. By 2030, EVs will account for 57% of cobalt demand vs 43% in 2024 with other segments of use such as mobile phones, laptops, superalloys, and other industrial sectors seeing slower growth. In 2024, the cobalt market was in a surplus of 36,000 tons, or 15% of demand, up from 25,000 tons in 2023, the report said.
NDTV
02-05-2025
- Business
- NDTV
US, Ukraine May Wait Decade Or More To See Revenue From Minerals Deal
London: The financial payoff from a new minerals deal between Ukraine and the US is likely to take a decade or longer as investors face many hurdles to getting new mines into production in the war-ravaged country. Developing mines that produce strategically important minerals in countries with established mining sectors such as Canada and Australia can take 10 to 20 years, mining consultants said on Thursday. But most mineral deposits in Ukraine have scant data to confirm they are economically viable. Investors may also baulk at funnelling money into a country where infrastructure such as power and transport has been devastated by Russia's three-year-old full-scale invasion and future security is not guaranteed. "If anyone's thinking suddenly all these minerals are going to be flying out of Ukraine, they're dreaming," said Adam Webb, head of minerals at consultancy Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. "The reality is it's going to be difficult for people to justify investing money there when there are options to invest in critical minerals in countries that are not at war." While the financial benefits from the deal are uncertain, officials in Ukraine hailed it as a political breakthrough: They believe it will help shore up US support for Kyiv that has faltered under President Donald Trump. Ukraine needs US support - especially weapons and cash - to withstand Russia's military invasion. On the US side, Trump heavily promoted the deal, especially the access it provides to Ukraine's deposits of rare earth elements which are used in everything from cellphones to cars. So government policy could hasten investment. The US does not produce significant amounts of rare earths and has ramped up a trade war with China, the world's top supplier. The text of the deal signed in Washington showed that revenues for the reconstruction fund would come from royalties, licence fees and production-sharing agreements. The text mentions no financial terms, saying that the two sides still have to hammer out a limited partnership agreement between the US International Development Finance Corp and Ukraine's State Organization Agency on Support for Public-Private Partnership. The text details 55 minerals plus oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons. According to Ukrainian data, the country has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical, including rare earths, lithium and nickel. "The transition from a discovered resource to an economically viable reserve requires significant time and investment, both of which have been constrained, not only since the onset of the war but even prior to it," said Willis Thomas at consultancy CRU. Ukrainian finance ministry data showed that in 2024, the Ukrainian state earned 47.7 billion hryvnias, or around $1 billion, in royalties and other fees related to natural resources exploitation. But the joint fund created under the deal will only get revenue from new licences, permits and production-sharing agreements concluded after the accord comes into force. Slow pace of mining licences Ukraine was slow to issue new natural resources licenses before Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion. From 2012 to 2020, about 20 licences were issued for oil and gas, one for graphite, one for gold, two for manganese and one for copper, according to the Ukrainian geological service. There are 3,482 existing licenses in total. Since the agreement creates a limited partnership, the two countries may be looking at direct government investment in a mining company, analysts said. Chile, the world's biggest copper producer and owner of state mining company Codelco, could be an example they follow, Webb said. Another hurdle is that some potentially lucrative projects are on land occupied by Russia, and the agreement does not include any security guarantees. Washington has said the presence of US interests would deter aggressors. Seven of 24 potential mining projects identified by Benchmark are in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and include lithium, graphite, rare earth elements, nickel and manganese. An official of a small Ukrainian company that holds the licence for the Polokhivske lithium deposit, one of the largest in Europe, told Reuters in February it would be tough to develop without Western security guarantees. "The deal ties the US more closely into Ukraine in that now they've got a bit more of a vested interest in this war coming to an end so that they can develop those assets," Webb said.
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Experts warn US-Ukraine minerals deal may take a decade to deliver returns, Reuters reports
The recently signed U.S.-Ukraine critical minerals agreement is unlikely to deliver significant financial returns for at least a decade, industry experts told Reuters, citing major challenges to mining investment in war-torn Ukraine. The deal, inked April 30, creates an investment fund and grants the United States special access to new projects developing Ukraine's natural resources, such as oil and gas, lithium, graphite, and rare earth elements. "If anyone's thinking suddenly all these minerals are going to be flying out of Ukraine, they're dreaming," Adam Webb, head of minerals at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence consultancy, told Reuters. "It's going to be difficult for people to justify investing money there when there are options to invest in critical minerals in countries that are not at war." While developing mineral deposits typically takes 10 to 20 years in established mining countries like Canada or Australia, Ukraine faces steeper obstacles. Many of its mineral sites have limited geological data, and the full-scale Russian invasion has left key infrastructure, including transport and energy systems, in disrepair. U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been seeking to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, had urged Ukraine to sign the agreement, arguing that the U.S. should gain more from its support to the country, which has depended heavily on American aid since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Despite the uncertainty, Ukrainian officials have touted the deal as a political milestone that could help revive U.S. support under Trump, particularly in the form of weapons and financial assistance. One key omission from the deal is a provision long sought by Kyiv — security guarantees that could help deter future Russian aggression after a ceasefire. The level of investment expected to enter the fund also remains uncertain. Ukraine's pace of issuing new mining licenses has historically been slow, according to Reuters. From 2012 to 2020, just a handful were granted for key resources. Out of 24 potential mining projects identified by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, seven are located in areas currently occupied by Russia. Read also: 'Warm words rather than real investment' — uncertainty surrounds newly-signed U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Japan Times
02-05-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
U.S. and Ukraine may wait decade or more to see revenue from minerals deal
The financial payoff from a new minerals deal between Ukraine and the U.S. is likely to take a decade or longer as investors face many hurdles to getting new mines into production in the war-ravaged country. Developing mines that produce strategically important minerals in countries with established mining sectors such as Canada and Australia can take 10 to 20 years, mining consultants said on Thursday. But most mineral deposits in Ukraine have scant data to confirm they are economically viable. Investors may also balk at funneling money into a country where infrastructure such as power and transport has been devastated by Russia's 3-year-old, full-scale invasion, and future security is not guaranteed. "If anyone's thinking suddenly all these minerals are going to be flying out of Ukraine, they're dreaming," said Adam Webb, head of minerals at consultancy Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. "The reality is, it's going to be difficult for people to justify investing money there when there are options to invest in critical minerals in countries that are not at war." While the financial benefits from the deal are uncertain, officials in Ukraine hailed it as a political breakthrough: They believe it will help shore up U.S. support for Kyiv that has faltered under President Donald Trump. Ukraine needs U.S. support — especially weapons and cash — to withstand Russia's military invasion. On the U.S. side, Trump heavily promoted the deal, especially the access it provides to Ukraine's deposits of rare earth elements used in everything from cellphones to cars. So government policy could hasten investment. The U.S. does not produce significant amounts of rare earths and has ramped up a trade war with China, the world's top supplier. The text of the deal signed in Washington showed that revenues for the reconstruction fund would come from royalties, license fees and production-sharing agreements. The text mentions no financial terms, saying that the two sides still have to hammer out a limited partnership agreement between the U.S. International Development Finance and Ukraine's State Organization Agency on Support for Public-Private Partnership. The text details 55 minerals plus oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons. According to Ukrainian data, the country has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical, including rare earths, lithium and nickel. "The transition from a discovered resource to an economically viable reserve requires significant time and investment, both of which have been constrained, not only since the onset of the war, but even prior to it," said Willis Thomas at consultancy CRU. Ukrainian finance ministry data showed that in 2024, the Ukrainian state earned 47.7 billion hryvnias, or around $1 billion, in royalties and other fees related to natural resources exploitation. But the joint fund created under the deal will only get revenue from new licenses, permits and production-sharing agreements concluded after the accord comes into force. Ukraine was slow to issue new natural resources licenses before Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion. From 2012 to 2020, about 20 licenses were issued for oil and gas, one for graphite, one for gold, two for manganese and one for copper, according to the Ukrainian geological service. There are 3,482 existing licenses in total. Since the agreement creates a limited partnership, the two countries may be looking at direct government investment in a mining company, analysts said. Chile, the world's biggest copper producer and owner of state mining company Codelco, could be an example they follow, Webb said. Another hurdle is that some potentially lucrative projects are on land occupied by Russia, and the agreement does not include any security guarantees. Washington has said the presence of U.S. interests would deter aggressors. Seven of 24 potential mining projects identified by Benchmark are in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and include lithium, graphite, rare earth elements, nickel and manganese. An official of a small Ukrainian company that holds the license for the Polokhivske lithium deposit, one of the largest in Europe, told Reuters in February it would be tough to develop without Western security guarantees. "The deal ties the U.S. more closely into Ukraine in that now they've got a bit more of a vested interest in this war coming to an end so that they can develop those assets," Webb said.
