Latest news with #BenAyers
The Hill
2 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Housing starts drop to lowest level since pandemic
The number of housing units that started construction in May fell to the lowest level since 2020, as the sector battles headwinds blown by high interest rates. Housing construction dropped 9.8 percent from April to May, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. If construction continued at that pace through the year, there would be 1.25 million units built in 2025, down from a pace of 1.39 million reached in April. The number is down 4.6 percent from a year ago, when the pace was 1.4 million units. 'Housing starts plunged in May as builders step back in 2025 amidst fading demand and rising costs,' Nationwide economist Ben Ayers wrote in a commentary. New building permits were down 2 percent from April. Housing completions were up 5.4 percent on the month but were still down 2.2 percent on the year. The housing sector was jolted by interest rate hikes delivered by the Federal Reserve in response to soaring post-pandemic inflation. While interest rate hikes combat inflation by slowing the pace of borrowing, they can also bolster the price of housing directly by making financing more expensive. Most housing is paid for with debt. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen to an annual increase of 2.4 percent, but shelter inflation is still at 3.9 percent. Housing inflation has lagged headline inflation throughout the post-pandemic period. Rates on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage were at 6.84 percent this week, still way above pre-pandemic rates around 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, housing inventories are at their highest level since November 2019. The U.S. has a huge shortage of affordable housing. The National Association of Home Builders put the shortage at 1.5 million units in 2021 while government mortgage backer Freddie Mac put it at 3.8 million units and the National Association of Realtors estimated it at 5.5 million units. Analysts noted Wednesday that the May drop in starts was concentrated in multifamily construction, which does not bode well for the affordable housing shortage. 'A sharp downward shift in multifamily construction drove the decline in May,' Ben Ayers wrote.
The Star
12-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks rebound as inflation data cools
NEW YORK, June 12 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks ended higher on Thursday, lifted by easing inflation concerns and a surge in Oracle shares, even as trade tensions and corporate headwinds kept investors cautious. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 101.85 points, or 0.24 percent, to 42,967.62. The S&P 500 added 23.02 points, or 0.38 percent, to 6,045.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 46.61 points, or 0.24 percent, to 19,662.49. Eight of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ended in green, with utilities and technology leading the gainers by adding 1.26 percent and 1.01 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, communication services and consumer discretionary led the laggards by losing 0.59 percent and 0.41 percent, respectively. The U.S. producer price index for May rose just 0.1 percent from April, below economist expectations of a 0.2 percent increase, suggesting modest inflationary pressure at the wholesale level, according to data issued on Thursday. On an annual basis, wholesale prices were up 2.6 percent, a slight uptick from April's 2.4 percent, but still aligned with forecasts. Core producer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, also came in softer than expected. "Concerns about widespread increases in producer prices due to tariffs continue to be dissuaded," said Nationwide's Ben Ayers, citing lower fuel costs as a moderating factor. Labor data added to the mixed economic picture, with weekly jobless claims holding steady at 248,000, slightly above forecasts and marking the second consecutive week at the highest level since October. "There are early warning signs in the labor market," said Navy Federal Credit Union's chief economist, Heather Long. "If layoffs worsen this summer, it will heighten fears of a recession and consumer spending pullback." "We still think the primary driver for market direction and to break out to all-time highs would be some resolution for tariffs and how they interlink with the budget and the Fed. And we see a lot of headlines about negotiations or pauses or frameworks, but we still haven't seen a single signed trade deal between the U.S. and its trade partners," said Tom Hainlin, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. In corporate news, Boeing led Dow and S&P 500 decliners, dropping 4.79 percent after an Air India 787-8 crash. Suppliers GE Aerospace and Spirit AeroSystems also slid. Technology stocks saw mixed performance. Microsoft rose 1.32 percent, while Nvidia and Broadcom each added more than 1 percent. Apple edged higher, but Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Tesla slipped. Tesla's 2.23 percent dip came after a four-day winning streak, during which it clawed back losses from last week's Musk-Trump controversy. The day's standout performer was Oracle, which soared 13.31 percent to a record high. The company topped quarterly earnings estimates and projected strong revenue growth, driven by robust demand for cloud and AI infrastructure services.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wholesale Inflation Tamer Than Expected in May
The Producer Price Index showed that wholesale prices rose by 0.1% in May, less than economists expected, while annual wholesale price increases were in line with estimates. A consumer inflation report yesterday also showed prices weren't rising as fast as expected in response to President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Economists did see some signals of increased inflation in the report, especially in rising prices for appliances, computer equipment, machinery, and vehicle are expecting a jump in inflation from President Donald Trump's tariff policies, but once again it failed to show up in the latest pricing data. Prices at the wholesale level came in lower than expected in May. That comes after yesterday's consumer pricing data also failed to reveal an expected jump in inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index (PPI) showed prices rose 0.1% in May from April. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires expected a larger increase of 0.2%. The April reading showed wholesale prices were down 0.2% from the prior month. On an annual basis, wholesale prices in May grew by 2.6%, in line with projections by Wells Fargo economists and an increase from last month's reading of 2.4%. Core wholesale inflation, which takes out volatile food and fuel prices, also increased less than expected in May. "Concerns about widespread increases in producer prices due to tariffs continue to be dissuaded. Cheaper costs for diesel and jet fuel helped to mute the headline gains with total intermediate goods only up modestly in May," Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers wrote. While price pressures continue to remain tame, economists said the report did show signs that inflation is working its way through the system following the implementation of U.S. tariffs. The report noted that prices for machinery and vehicle wholesaling jumped 2.9%, while appliances and computer equipment costs also rose in May. "The softer headline gain for the PPI in May hides much of the underlying cost pressures faced by producers. Tariff impacts are steadily flowing into prices for inputs, especially for metals, which is raising production costs for machinery and vehicles," Ayers added. Read the original article on Investopedia Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Axios
01-05-2025
- Business
- Axios
Iowa's job challenges mount as trade risks loom, economists say
Economists warn that Iowa's labor market is continuing to stagnate. Why it matters: That general trend adds to a looming threat to agriculture from disruptions in international trade. State of play: The state shed another 1,500 non-farm jobs in March, losing nearly 12,000 jobs over the past year, according to the latest seasonally adjusted data from Iowa Workforce Development. The state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.4%, up slightly from 3.3% in February but below the national rate of 4.2% in March. Zoom in: Trade and transportation, education and health care are the only major sectors posting increases in the state so far in 2025. Modest gains in those areas have been offset by losses in professional services and manufacturing, per a review by Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers provided to Axios. What they're saying: The specter of tariff disruptions hangs over the Iowa economy in the coming months, with the agriculture sector likely to be challenged by reduced international demand for U.S. exports of grains and meats, Ayers said. Retaliatory measures from other countries would likely involve reducing imports of agricultural commodities, potentially leading Iowa to face "very large" problems, Iowa State University economist Peter Orazem tells Axios. The other side: The "Liberation Day" tariffs — a term President Trump used to describe his efforts to create more favorable trading terms for the U.S. — will force trading partners to the table and put farmers first, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds said in an April 2 statement.
Yahoo
13-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US wholesale inflation substantially slowed in February
Americans just got some reassurances that inflation was slowing, and not reaccelerating, last month. The Producer Price Index, a wholesale inflation gauge that is being closely watched for tariff-related impacts, showed that price hikes slowed substantially in February. The PPI index was unchanged from January, and rose 3.2% for the 12 months ended in February, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Thursday. That marked a sharp slowdown from January, when prices rose 0.6% and 3.7% for those respective periods. Economists were expecting wholesale-level inflation to cool amid falling energy prices, and that was the case: Energy prices fell 1.2% for the month. Excluding food and energy, categories that tend to be volatile, core PPI fell 0.1% from January (when it sharply rose 0.6%), bringing the annual increase to 3.4%, down from a 3.8% rate the month before. 'After hotter readings in December and January, flat producer prices for February should provide some assurances that inflation isn't taking off again,' Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, wrote in commentary issued Thursday. 'But one month does not make a trend, and the upward pressure for goods costs (even excluding the outsized increase for eggs) is a warning sign that imposed tariffs could drive prices higher in coming months.' The latest Consumer Price Index, released Wednesday, showed annual inflation slowed for the first time in five months. PPI, which measures the average change in prices paid to producers of goods and services, serves as a potential bellwether for retail-level inflation in the months ahead. This index also is being scrutinized to glean insight as to the initial impacts of President Donald Trump's sweeping new and proposed tariffs. Wholesale goods prices rose 0.3% for the month, an increase that was fueled largely by sharp inflation in eggs but offset by falling energy prices. Egg inflation is slowing on the wholesale level, but prices remain significantly higher than last year as a deadly avian flu has devastated flocks and impacted supply. The eggs for fresh use index rose 28.1% on a monthly basis, slowing from 44% in January. On an annual basis, the category is up 136.6%. Excluding food and energy, final demand goods rose 0.4%. 'The fastest increase since January 2023, presumably as tariff effects began to flow into input costs for producers,' Ayers noted. 'With tariffs on steel, aluminum and some products from Mexico and Canada enacted in March, the goods category could jump higher soon.' Increases in wholesale good prices could reflect not just the direct impact from tariffs but also producers raising prices in anticipation of 'trade war fallout,' said Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet's senior economist. 'Businesses, like consumers, don't necessarily wait for direct impact before taking action,' she wrote Thursday. 'For example, if you're fairly confident prices on televisions are going to rise in coming months, you might upgrade now rather than wait. Likewise, businesses may increase inventories and wholesalers may raise prices, all in an effort to beat the real changes to the punch.' She added: 'In this way, tariffs and other inflationary policies can shape the economy before they're even implemented.' Thursday's PPI, like CPI before it, is another data series reflecting 'the calm before the storm,' Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist at RSM US, told CNN in an interview. 'We know that it's going to be passed through,' he said of higher tariffs paid by US importers. 'We know it's going to show up, but it's going to be a multi-month phenomenon, and February was not the month that it was going to happen.'
