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The Hill
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
For Team Trump, winning World War III begins in Iran and ends in Ukraine
Team Trump may be on the verge of understanding that the U.S., NATO and their Pacific allies are being engulfed in a growing global war being waged against them by Russia and China. Initially, Ukraine was the most logical country in this multiregional war for the West to put its first win on the board against the Axis of Evil. But now it has become Iran. For 46 years, Tehran has been waging its own war against the U.S. and its allies, directly and indirectly. President Trump's call on Tuesday for Iran's unconditional surrender was welcome. So too was his brushing off Russian President Vladimir Putin in a brief conversation they held Tuesday. Putin had made an unserious offer to mediate between the U.S., Israel and Iran over Tehran's nuclear weapons program. Trump's response? 'I said, 'Do me a favor, mediate your own'' conflict. Team Moscow clearly was not pleased. Twenty-four hours later, Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement 'call[ing] on Israel to stop targeting Tehran's nuclear sites, arguing the ongoing bombardment could lead to global 'nuclear catastrophe.' Once again, when the Kremlin gets faced with a geo-strategic setback, it resorts to nuclear bluster and fearmongering. The Biden administration — and namely former national security advisor Jake Sullivan — fell for it again and again. Team Trump must not. Trump's stern pushback on Putin was well-timed and much-needed. For although Israel's war plan against Iran is succeeding spectacularly and running ahead of schedule, Israeli civilians are still being intentionally targeted by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Urgency is needed at the White House. Waves of Iranian ballistic barrages are rapidly depleting Israel's supply of Arrow interceptor missiles. The Arrows play a key role in Israel's multitiered air-defense. To date, Iran has launched more than 400 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones at Israel. Civilian casualties are mounting, with 24 killed in Israel and more than 500 wounded. Likewise, U.S. allies in the Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are exposed and vulnerable — especially their port facilities and oil export infrastructure. Approximately 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption — roughly 20 million barrels per day — transits the strategic Straits of Hormuz. On Wednesday, Iran threatened the U.S. that any involvement in its conflict with Israel would trigger an 'all-out war.' U.S. military facilities, remote bases and interests are also exposed in Jordan, Iraq, and throughout the region. As a result, the Pentagon is being forced to move naval assets out of Bahrain. According to a report in Newsweek, 'all forward-deployed U.S. Navy vessels' have departed the 'key port' in the Gulf. The repositioning of military assets is likely an indicator that the President has come to a decision concerning military support for Israel. That the U.S. is being forced to scramble military assets is, at least temporarily, a win for Moscow at Beijing. Yet, Trump is increasingly likely to change that question by ordering offensive operations against Iran. If Team Trump is to ensure that the West begins winning World War III, it is not an option to let Fordo — Iran's key underground nuclear facility, buried deep inside a mountain southwest of Tehran — remain operational. And it appears that Trump will not. The Pentagon has been assembling a vast array of offensive weapons and capabilities in the region. Fighters and air-tankers have been repositioned to Europe and the Middle East over the last several days. Fordo, clearly, is on the White House's radar screen. Likewise, USS Gerald Ford and the USS Nimitz are steaming toward the Mideast to join the USS Carl Vinson already on station. When they arrive, the U.S. will have three powerful carrier groups to take the fight to Iran and defend against any possible retaliation — and, by extension to demonstrate to Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping that red lines will be enforced. Iran likely knows what is coming. Team Trump has largely gone silent. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pointedly refused to divulge to the Senate the exact nature of the options he has presented to the White House. Trump himself has remained coy, warning on Wednesday that , 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean nobody knows what I'm going to do.' Radio silence is never a good thing, and Khamenei appears to know it. His official government X account repeatedly posted warnings on Wednesday aimed at Trump, 'Zionists' and Israel. In one of his early posts, Khamenei defiantly exclaimed, 'It isn't wise to tell the Iranian nation to surrender.' Beijing finally weighed in, too. On Wednesday, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi 'warned that escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran could spiral out of control, urging all sides to prioritize a ceasefire to prevent the region from sliding into an 'abyss.' But it's a bit late for that — regime change and loss of China's investment in Iran may now be on the horizon. Yang hypocritically condemned 'Israel's acts of disregarding international law and international rules.' Of course, he ignored — as Beijing has done since February 2022 — Russia's actual violations of international law in Ukraine, including intentional war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Chances are that Trump understands Iran must be defeated, its nuclear program destroyed. Team Trump likely also understands that it cannot stop there in countering Russia's and China's global war against the collective West and its allies in the Pacific. What remains to be seen after Iran's nuclear threat is eliminated is where Team Trump pivots to next. If it leaves Russia to Europe and focuses exclusively on China — as Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby prefers — that would be a colossal strategic error. As it is, the commander of U.S. Central Command Gen. Michael Kurilla has reportedly been fending off Colby in order to position U.S. assets in the Middle East, to defend Israel and eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat if so ordered. Colby has already repeatedly lobbied to end military aid to Ukraine and focus on the Indo-Pacific — the new 'priority theater.' What Colby fails to understand is the connective tissue of it all. The fights in Ukraine, Iran and potentially Taiwan, and other U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific, are all strategically connected. Defeating Khamenei in Iran and ensuring Putin's defeat in Ukraine are the best way two things Trump can do now to confront a rapidly expanding Chinese threat. This is World War III — not Hollywood's dramatic version of it, but rather war by a thousand cuts. Winning it starts in Iran and ends by winning in Ukraine. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
Sydney Morning Herald
02-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Sydney Morning Herald
After 60 years, even Mick Jagger can finally get some satisfaction
As rock anniversaries go, 60 years is quite the milestone. Consider what the world looked like on June 4, 1965, the day (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction was released by the Rolling Stones: humanity yet to set foot on the moon, communism ruling Eastern Europe, war escalating in Vietnam, and it would be two years until the Beatles released Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction turned the big 2-0 as then UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher stared down striking coalminers in 1985, and space shuttles orbited the planet, Uluru was handed back to traditional owners and MTV took over a generation. On its 40th anniversary, in the wake of September 11, the 'Axis of Evil', Iraq and Afghanistan, we spoke of the song on the internet (that's what we called it then) and wondered how the Rolling Stones' lead singer, Mick Jagger, could still do it. Could still do anything, really. A few years later, we shared clips – originals, live performances, tributes – using these new little phones we kept in our pockets that were 100,000 times more powerful than the computer that landed that spacecraft on the moon a generation earlier. And the world kept on changing, moving, relentlessly pushing forward: Trump, COVID, more Trump. But 60 years on – we're still singing the song and humming that riff.
The Age
02-06-2025
- Entertainment
- The Age
After 60 years, even Mick Jagger can finally get some satisfaction
As rock anniversaries go, 60 years is quite the milestone. Consider what the world looked like on June 4, 1965, the day (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction was released by the Rolling Stones: humanity yet to set foot on the moon, communism ruling Eastern Europe, war escalating in Vietnam, and it would be two years until the Beatles released Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction turned the big 2-0 as then UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher stared down striking coalminers in 1985, and space shuttles orbited the planet, Uluru was handed back to traditional owners and MTV took over a generation. On its 40th anniversary, in the wake of September 11, the 'Axis of Evil', Iraq and Afghanistan, we spoke of the song on the internet (that's what we called it then) and wondered how the Rolling Stones' lead singer, Mick Jagger, could still do it. Could still do anything, really. A few years later, we shared clips – originals, live performances, tributes – using these new little phones we kept in our pockets that were 100,000 times more powerful than the computer that landed that spacecraft on the moon a generation earlier. And the world kept on changing, moving, relentlessly pushing forward: Trump, COVID, more Trump. But 60 years on – we're still singing the song and humming that riff.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Opinion - Trump must not fall for Iran's nuclear shell game
Team Trump has a growing Iranian problem. Tehran's latest purported nuclear offer — a farcical proposal to pause uranium enrichment for a year in exchange for the release of Iranian frozen funds and Washington's recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium for civilian and energy purposes — is an obvious strategic non-starter for both the U.S. and Israel. As Freedom for the Defense of Democracies President Mark Dubowitz posted on X, 'Do [the Iranians] think we're that stupid?' Apparently so. Despite President Trump's assertion that talks between Iran and the U.S. might produce 'good news' this week, it is clear Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is intent on playing him for the fool. Iran has been allowed to play this dangerous nuclear shell game for far too long. It has proven repeatedly that it cannot be trusted, and Israel is done playing Iranian games. The White House must forcefully push back and disabuse Tehran of the notion that Trump can be played or that a slightly revised present-day rehash of the ill-advised Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran is even remotely acceptable. Iran's strategic objective is apparent. Tehran is hell-bent on retaining its uranium enrichment capacity — a rapidly growing capacity that we have repeatedly warned would permit Iran to immediately produce five nuclear weapons within one week and exponentially many more nukes thereafter given Tehran's substantial centrifuge capacity to spin 90 percent weapons-grade highly enriched uranium. Yet Iran's nuclear shell game is becoming even darker. It is no longer simply the ultimate manifestation of Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' war against Israel. Rather, it is now also Tehran's key staying card in Russian President Vladimir Putin's 'Axis of Evil.' To preserve its status in both — especially given Iran's growing strategic standing with Putin as a primary supplier in his 'Arsenals of Evil' — Tehran is desperate to find ways to buy time to thwart any U.S. or Israeli military strikes against its nuclear weapons program. Enter Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. His two-day state visit to Muscat, Oman earlier this week was a multifaceted attempt to do just that. Accompanied by Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, Pezeshkian met with Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the Sultan of Oman, ahead of a proposed sixth round of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Pezeshkian's regional Middle East gambit is to persuade Oman — who is serving as a negotiating mediator between the U.S. and Iran (and negotiated the U.S.-Houthi rebel ceasefire) — to sanction Iran's proposal to freeze uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and U.S. recognition of Tehran's right to enrich uranium going forward. One of Pezeshkian's main regional goals is to obfuscate the issue of uranium enrichment. Earlier, in mid-May, in the lead up to his state visit to Oman, Tehran proposed that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other interested countries in the Persian Gulf region form a nuclear consortium to enrich uranium for commercial purposes. Uranium enriched at levels below 5 percent — the amount required for hospital equipment and medical experiments — would be produced under the supervision of Iranian engineers. Iran's goal is obvious — to obtain the backing and support of fellow Gulf States. Although their interests in procuring low-enriched uranium are legitimate, the Sunni Arab Gulf states are not likely to sign on to Tehran's proposal. First, it would put Doha, Dubai and Riyadh in direct conflict with Washington's zero-enrichment negotiating position. Second, it would potentially put them in Israel's crosshairs, should any Iranian-controlled production facilities be physically located in their countries. Intentionally or no, Israel sent a message to Iran and the Gulf States during Pezeshkian's visit that it was a bad idea when it again struck Houthi targets in Yemen — Oman's neighbor in southwest Arabia. To underscore the point, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forcefully declared that 'Iran is responsible' for aggression against Israel from Yemen. Notably, there was an even darker transregional element to Pezeshkian's meetings in Oman. While he was meeting with the Sultan, Iran was also slated to participate in an 'Axis of Evil' military summit being hosted in Moscow by Sergei Shoigu, the former Russian defense minister. Military and security officials from North Korea and Iran were in attendance. Disconcertingly, the United Arab Emirates was in attendance as well. That meeting in Moscow is a timely reminder that Russia has a vested interest in disrupting any nuclear negotiations between Washington and Iran. It is also working to deter any U.S. military action against Tehran and its nuclear, ballistic missile or drone production facilities spread out throughout the country. Khamenei, presently, is a key supplier of ballistic missiles and drones to Moscow – the importance of which was recently underscored when Iran's parliament recently approved a 20-year strategic partnership with Moscow. Iran is doing its best to leverage its relationship with Putin to safeguard its nuclear ambitions. They are connected in that Trump's Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is negotiating this and the Russian ceasefire deal in Ukraine. That pact, notably, comes on top of a free trade agreement that went into effect in mid-May under the auspices of the Eurasian Economic Union. Israel sees all of this for what it is: a highly dangerous nuclear shell game being played against Jerusalem and Washington by Tehran and Russia. Significantly, it is equally clear that Israel is likely nearing a military strike on Iran's nuclear weapons program as evidenced by Trump's acknowledgement on Wednesday that he asked Netanyahu to wait. The Israeli prime minister is short on patience with Iran these days given its support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels. It is time Team Trump saw this the same way and with the same level of clarity. Tehran, like its Russian ally, is attempting to play him for a fool. The White House needs to send a clear message to Khamenei, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and by extension Putin and his 'Axis of Evil' allies, including China, that Washington is nobody's fool. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan E. Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
29-05-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Trump must not fall for Iran's nuclear shell game
Team Trump has a growing Iranian problem. Tehran's latest purported nuclear offer — a farcical proposal to pause uranium enrichment for a year in exchange for the release of Iranian frozen funds and Washington's recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium for civilian and energy purposes — is an obvious strategic non-starter for both the U.S. and Israel. As Freedom for the Defense of Democracies President Mark Dubowitz posted on X, 'Do [the Iranians] think we're that stupid?' Apparently so. Despite President Trump's assertion that talks between Iran and the U.S. might produce 'good news' this week, it is clear Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is intent on playing him for the fool. Iran has been allowed to play this dangerous nuclear shell game for far too long. It has proven repeatedly that it cannot be trusted, and Israel is done playing Iranian games. The White House must forcefully push back and disabuse Tehran of the notion that Trump can be played or that a slightly revised present-day rehash of the ill-advised Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran is even remotely acceptable. Iran's strategic objective is apparent. Tehran is hell-bent on retaining its uranium enrichment capacity — a rapidly growing capacity that we have repeatedly warned would permit Iran to immediately produce five nuclear weapons within one week and exponentially many more nukes thereafter given Tehran's substantial centrifuge capacity to spin 90 percent weapons-grade highly enriched uranium. Yet Iran's nuclear shell game is becoming even darker. It is no longer simply the ultimate manifestation of Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' war against Israel. Rather, it is now also Tehran's key staying card in Russian President Vladimir Putin's 'Axis of Evil.' To preserve its status in both — especially given Iran's growing strategic standing with Putin as a primary supplier in his 'Arsenals of Evil' — Tehran is desperate to find ways to buy time to thwart any U.S. or Israeli military strikes against its nuclear weapons program. Enter Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. His two-day state visit to Muscat, Oman earlier this week was a multifaceted attempt to do just that. Accompanied by Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, Pezeshkian met with Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the Sultan of Oman, ahead of a proposed sixth round of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Pezeshkian's regional Middle East gambit is to persuade Oman — who is serving as a negotiating mediator between the U.S. and Iran (and negotiated the U.S.-Houthi rebel ceasefire) — to sanction Iran's proposal to freeze uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and U.S. recognition of Tehran's right to enrich uranium going forward. One of Pezeshkian's main regional goals is to obfuscate the issue of uranium enrichment. Earlier, in mid-May, in the lead up to his state visit to Oman, Tehran proposed that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other interested countries in the Persian Gulf region form a nuclear consortium to enrich uranium for commercial purposes. Uranium enriched at levels below 5 percent — the amount required for hospital equipment and medical experiments — would be produced under the supervision of Iranian engineers. Iran's goal is obvious — to obtain the backing and support of fellow Gulf States. Although their interests in procuring low-enriched uranium are legitimate, the Sunni Arab Gulf states are not likely to sign on to Tehran's proposal. First, it would put Doha, Dubai and Riyadh in direct conflict with Washington's zero-enrichment negotiating position. Second, it would potentially put them in Israel's crosshairs, should any Iranian-controlled production facilities be physically located in their countries. Intentionally or no, Israel sent a message to Iran and the Gulf States during Pezeshkian's visit that it was a bad idea when it again struck Houthi targets in Yemen — Oman's neighbor in southwest Arabia. To underscore the point, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forcefully declared that 'Iran is responsible' for aggression against Israel from Yemen. Notably, there was an even darker transregional element to Pezeshkian's meetings in Oman. While he was meeting with the Sultan, Iran was also slated to participate in an 'Axis of Evil' military summit being hosted in Moscow by Sergei Shoigu, the former Russian defense minister. Military and security officials from North Korea and Iran were in attendance. Disconcertingly, the United Arab Emirates was in attendance as well. That meeting in Moscow is a timely reminder that Russia has a vested interest in disrupting any nuclear negotiations between Washington and Iran. It is also working to deter any U.S. military action against Tehran and its nuclear, ballistic missile or drone production facilities spread out throughout the country. Khamenei, presently, is a key supplier of ballistic missiles and drones to Moscow – the importance of which was recently underscored when Iran's parliament recently approved a 20-year strategic partnership with Moscow. Iran is doing its best to leverage its relationship with Putin to safeguard its nuclear ambitions. They are connected in that Trump's Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is negotiating this and the Russian ceasefire deal in Ukraine. That pact, notably, comes on top of a free trade agreement that went into effect in mid-May under the auspices of the Eurasian Economic Union. Israel sees all of this for what it is: a highly dangerous nuclear shell game being played against Jerusalem and Washington by Tehran and Russia. Significantly, it is equally clear that Israel is likely nearing a military strike on Iran's nuclear weapons program as evidenced by Trump's acknowledgement on Wednesday that he asked Netanyahu to wait. The Israeli prime minister is short on patience with Iran these days given its support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels. It is time Team Trump saw this the same way and with the same level of clarity. Tehran, like its Russian ally, is attempting to play him for a fool. The White House needs to send a clear message to Khamenei, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and by extension Putin and his 'Axis of Evil' allies, including China, that Washington is nobody's fool. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan E. Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
