Latest news with #Asym500
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Braces for a $6.5 Trillion Shake-Up -- Will Stocks Break Free Next Week?
A wave of nearly $6.5 trillion in US equity options is about to roll off this Fridaypossibly setting the stage for a new round of stock market turbulence. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other popular names sit at the heart of this quarterly triple witching event, where index options, single-stock options, and ETF contracts all expire at once. While the expiry itself may not trigger a sharp move on the day, the aftermath could look very different. Rocky Fishman, founder of Asym 500, called this one among the largest ever and flagged the potential for markets to finally break free from the tight range theyve traded in since May. Whats held stocks in check? According to Fishman, a wave of defensive trades earlier this year effectively pinned the S&P 500 around current levels. During Aprils tariff-fueled volatility, many investors bought downside protection while selling upside calls near 6,000 betting the index wouldnt get that high. As those trades expire, that ceiling could lift. Its all tied to how dealers hedge. When markets are in a positive gamma regime, as they are now, dealers tend to smooth volatilitybuying when stocks drop and selling into rallies. But once those positions expire, that cushion may disappear. Some strategists are watching closely. Matthew Thompson at Little Harbor Advisors sees these expiry windows as chances to make volatility plays in his ETF strategies. Citigroup analysts Vishal Vivek and Stuart Kaiser note that triple-witching days usually arent much more volatile than regular monthly expiriesbut this one stands out due to sheer size. Citi estimates $5.8 trillion in contracts are expiring, while Fishman includes additional index futures options to arrive at $6.5 trillion. Either way, the hedging flows that follow could be a key driver of what comes next. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Braces for a $6.5 Trillion Shake-Up -- Will Stocks Break Free Next Week?
A wave of nearly $6.5 trillion in US equity options is about to roll off this Fridaypossibly setting the stage for a new round of stock market turbulence. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other popular names sit at the heart of this quarterly triple witching event, where index options, single-stock options, and ETF contracts all expire at once. While the expiry itself may not trigger a sharp move on the day, the aftermath could look very different. Rocky Fishman, founder of Asym 500, called this one among the largest ever and flagged the potential for markets to finally break free from the tight range theyve traded in since May. Whats held stocks in check? According to Fishman, a wave of defensive trades earlier this year effectively pinned the S&P 500 around current levels. During Aprils tariff-fueled volatility, many investors bought downside protection while selling upside calls near 6,000 betting the index wouldnt get that high. As those trades expire, that ceiling could lift. Its all tied to how dealers hedge. When markets are in a positive gamma regime, as they are now, dealers tend to smooth volatilitybuying when stocks drop and selling into rallies. But once those positions expire, that cushion may disappear. Some strategists are watching closely. Matthew Thompson at Little Harbor Advisors sees these expiry windows as chances to make volatility plays in his ETF strategies. Citigroup analysts Vishal Vivek and Stuart Kaiser note that triple-witching days usually arent much more volatile than regular monthly expiriesbut this one stands out due to sheer size. Citi estimates $5.8 trillion in contracts are expiring, while Fishman includes additional index futures options to arrive at $6.5 trillion. Either way, the hedging flows that follow could be a key driver of what comes next. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
A $6.5 Trillion ‘Triple Witching' Heralds Return to Volatility
(Bloomberg) -- Investors are bracing for $6.5 trillion of notional US options expiring on Friday, in a move that could free stocks to swing more wildly than the subdued changes seen in recent weeks. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown How E-Scooters Conquered (Most of) Europe One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing Every quarter, a cluster of different exchange-traded derivatives contracts all terminate on the same day, leading to what is sometimes dubbed a 'triple witching' event by market watchers. The event isn't expected to add additional volatility on Friday itself, but could open a path to more sudden stock market moves next week. Daily gyrations in US stocks have been relatively restrained since early May, a situation helped by the pinning effect of a swath of bearish options trades placed earlier in the year — when the chances of the S&P 500 making a recovery to near-record highs seemed remote, according to Rocky Fishman, the founder of research firm Asym 500 LLC. 'Pinning' refers to the tendency of a stock price to close near the strike of heavily-traded options as the expiration date nears. During the height of tariff-driven volatility in early April, many pessimistic investors bought insurance against a further drop in stocks, funding those positions by capping upside a little beyond the S&P 500's current level of 5,981. 'People might have seen a 6,000 level as something that's really hard to get to as we were dealing with a lot of the tariff drama over the last few months, and therefore sold calls in the 6,000 range as a way of funding protection at various points,' said Fishman, who called Friday's expiry 'one of the largest ever' in a recent note. The way market makers and broker-dealers have to hedge their own books can have major implications and echo back into equity markets. Fishman says dealer hedging could be a contributing factor to the fairly placid state of equity markets since early May, despite turmoil in the Middle East and continued tariff talks. To Fishman, the market is in a state known as positive gamma, which means players can be incentivized to sell into rallies and buy dips. It was different during early April's tariff turmoil, when many intermediaries found themselves having to dump stock into falling markets, and then buy it back as markets rose, exacerbating swings, according to Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors. Thompson pays attention to expiry events like the triple-witching because it can help the equity ETFs he manages alongside his brother Michael take tactical positions in volatility markets. 'We're mostly interested in the dealers and how they have to hedge all of that exposure,' Thompson said in an interview on Wednesday. The quarterly triple-witching days are not usually much more volatile than monthly options expiry events, according to a study by Vishal Vivek and Stuart Kaiser, strategists at Citigroup Inc. Still, Friday's event is 'notable,' the pair wrote recently to clients. There is no standard way to calculate the amount of listed-derivatives due to expire on any one day - it depends which type of asset class and contract one includes in the figure. Citi estimates that Friday will see $5.8 trillion of notional open interest across equities expire, including $4.2 trillion of index options, $708 billion of bets on US ETFs and $819 billion of single stock options. Fishman's larger figure of roughly $6.5 trillion also includes the notional value of options on equity index futures expiring on Friday. Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It How a Tiny Middleman Could Access Two-Factor Login Codes From Tech Giants Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
03-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Zero-Day Options Hits Trading Record on Trump Turmoil, Robinhood Push
(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street's most-popular option trades just got more popular than ever, fueled by Donald Trump's volatility-inducing policy agenda and a push by Robinhood Markets Inc. to expand its product offerings. Cuts to Section 8 Housing Assistance Loom Amid HUD Uncertainty How Upzoning in Cambridge Broke the YIMBY Mold Remembering the Landscape Architect Who Embraced the City NYC Office Buildings See Resurgence as Investors Pile Into Bonds Hong Kong Joins Global Stadium Race With New $4 Billion Sports Park Contracts that expire within 24 hours made up a record 56% of the S&P 500's total options volume last month, according to data compiled by Cboe Global Markets Inc., the exchange that's at the center of the trading boom. Demand for derivatives with zero days to expire, known as 0DTE, has climbed in the new year as unpredictable trade policy from Trump's administration whiplashed the market at a time when the economy is showing signs of weakening. In the first two months, the S&P 500 posted daily reversals of at least 0.5% on eight separate sessions. On Monday, the index rose and fell by that amount before trading flat as of 12:20 p.m. in New York. The turbulence has sparked a new wave of appetite for zero-day options as investors, big or small, flocked to the product as a way to either make quick money or hedge against wild market swings. To cater to the growing demand, online broker Robinhood in January extended its 0DTE line-up to a broader audience. 'The jump in 0DTE volumes is partly a function of higher intraday volatility but mostly a result of expanded access, with Robinhood rolling out index options trading to all its customers,' said Mandy Xu, Cboe Global Markets Inc.'s head of derivatives market intelligence. Last Friday offered a lens into the market dynamic that has emboldened the latest 0DTE demand. The S&P 500 spent most of the session swinging between losses and gains as traders digested a decline in consumer spending and watched a meeting between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy slip into a fiery exchange. Then, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Mexico has proposed matching US tariffs on China while urging Canada to do the same, stocks rebounded, with the S&P 500 ending the day with a 1.6% gain. Amid Friday's gyrations, $1.4 trillion of S&P 500 zero-day contracts changed hands in notional value, just shy of an all-time high reached a week earlier, according to derivatives analytical firm Asym 500. The fresh frenzy has again sparked a debate on Wall Street about its market impact. Derivatives strategists at Bank of America Corp. brushed aside concerns over a repeat of the volatility implosion in 2018, saying the 0DTE ecosystem has stayed balanced. Yet Rocky Fishman, founder of Asym 500, raised the question whether these rapid-fire, turbocharged contracts have played a role in fueling the wild market moves of late. 'We see the growth in 0DTE as a natural response to a rapid market-moving news flow, and wonder if heightened option-buying is adding to intraday volatility,' he said. Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost? The US Is Withdrawing From Global Health at a Dangerous Time Trump's SALT Tax Promise Hinges on an Obscure Loophole Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods Walmart Wants to Be Something for Everyone in a Divided America ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
