Latest news with #Asteroid2024
The National
18-02-2025
- Science
- The National
Nasa increases chance of ‘city destroyer' asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 to one in 43
Scientists around the world are tracking a newly-discovered asteroid that has been given a one-in-43 chance of striking the Earth in seven years, and Nasa said the odds on could 'continue to rise'. The rock, designated Asteroid 2024 YR4, could hit on December 22, 2032, according to the US space agency. Scientists want to learn more about YR4's trajectory and size, but the asteroid is too faint to observe as it is moving away from Earth right now. It is estimated to be between 40 to 91 metres wide and could, in theory, unleash about 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb that hit the Japanese city of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Jonathan Ward, a fellow with the Royal Astronomical Society, told The National that several factors could influence the asteroid's trajectory, including the Yarkovsky effect, where the asteroid absorbs and radiates enough heat from the Sun that it changes course. 'We won't know anything better about its potential for an impact in 2032 until it comes back by the Earth in 2028. And in fact, we're going to lose it to Earth-based telescopes within the next several weeks,' he said. 'The James Webb Space Telescope will probably still be able to track it from infrared radiation (heat signatures) for a while. But we won't be able to track it all the way around the Sun.' Observations so far also show that the asteroid is a stony type rather than a metal-rich one, which means if it does reach Earth, it could break up in the atmosphere before reaching the ground. But if more detailed observations show it is metal-rich and with the current size estimates, it means the asteroid would create a force equivalent to as much as eight megatons of TNT, hundreds of times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. It could create a crater hundreds of metres wide, with severe destruction in a 10 to 20km radius. A land impact near a populated area could cause mass casualties and infrastructure damage. If the asteroid hits an ocean, it could generate a tsunami that would produce waves tens of metres high near coastal regions. An atmospheric explosion would result in an even stronger blast, potentially causing citywide destruction. Historical asteroid events provide context for what could happen if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth. In 1908, the Tunguska event in Siberia was caused by an asteroid or comet estimated to be 50 to 60 metres in diameter. The explosion flattened more than 2,000 square kilometres of forest. In 2013, the Chelyabinsk meteor, which was 20 metres across, created an airburst that shattered windows across hundreds of kilometres, injuring more than 1,500 people. Khadijah Ahmed, operations manager at the Dubai Astronomy Group, told The National that researchers continue to refine the asteroid's orbit. 'The key issue is that the asteroid's path is still uncertain, and it's moving away from Earth, making it harder to track,' she said. 'We could stop an asteroid like 2024 YR4 if we act early, but we need better tracking, more advanced tech and faster decision-making to be fully prepared.' Nasa had carried out the DART mission in 2022, where it crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid to demonstrate how a space rock's course can be changed in the event of a real threat to Earth. Mr Ward said that mission was the 'best chance we have' in terms of mitigation, however, it would take about three-to-five years to prepare and launch. 'If we can change the course of the asteroid in such a way that its orbital period changes by 10 or 20 minutes, that will be enough for it to miss the Earth,' he said. 'But the problem is we don't know where the asteroid is going to be until 2028. So, that gives us little time to be able to launch a mission and intercept the asteroid directly.' Researchers are now using space-based infrared telescopes, like James Webb and Neowise to monitor the asteroid. Ms Khadijah said that a special space mission, similar to Nasa's upcoming NEO Surveyor, could also provide crucial data by tracking the asteroid in infrared, which is better for detecting dark space rocks. 'A nuclear detonation could be a last-resort option to push the asteroid off course – not blowing it up, just pushing it – but there are many legal and political challenges to using nukes in space,' she said. 'Another option would be laser/ion beams. These are more experimental ideas where lasers or ion beams slowly push the asteroid over time. They require technology that isn't fully developed yet, but in the future, they could offer a precise, non-destructive way to redirect space rocks.' The asteroid is classified as a Level Three threat under the Torino Scale, which is used to assess the risk posed by near-Earth objects like asteroids. Level Three means that the asteroid 'needs monitoring' and that there is a small chance of impact. For perspective, Level eight to 10 was the Chicxulub asteroid, an event that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
Yahoo
13-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Could an asteroid strike Earth? NASA is tracking asteroid that is closing in on our planet
Could an asteroid really strike our planet? In what seems to be the backstory of a doomsday science fiction flick, NASA is tracking an asteroid that has a non-zero chance of striking Earth. Here's what we know about Asteroid 2024 YR4, and when it could possibly hit our planet. The asteroid, according to NASA, is roughly 130 to 300 feet wide, and has a very small chance of impacting Earth on Wednesday, December 22, 2032. NASA notes that an impact from Asteroid 2024 YR4 could be damaging, and that it poses threats to domestic and international security. "It is large enough to cause localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth," read NASA's Asteroid 2024 YR4 website. "And while 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of Earth impact in 2032, it has surpassed the 1% impact probability threshold to warrant formal notification of the object to other U.S. government agencies involved in planetary defense as well as to the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group." While NASA didn't specify how damaging a theoretical Asteroid 2024 YR4 strike could be, global published reports are painting a harrowing picture of what an impact could look like. Although it won't come close to causing the total destruction of all life on Earth, one report estimates Asteroid 2024 YR4 could have an impact radius of 4.54 miles, instantly killing humans, animals and vegetation caught in the radius and miles beyond. Others labeled Asteroid 2024 YR4 as the most dangerous asteroid in the last 20 years. You probably don't need to worry about setting up any underground shelters to avoid Asteroid 2024 YR4 fallout, however. scientists believe the chances of Asteroid 2024 YR4 actually striking our planet will decrease greatly in the coming years. Damon C. Williams is a Philadelphia-based journalist reporting on trending topics across the Mid-Atlantic Region. This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: NASA is tracking an asteroid; could it strike our planet?
Yahoo
08-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Chance of 2032 asteroid strike have increased. Why scientists say not to worry
Astronomers say a newly discovered 196-foot asteroid has a 1-in-43 chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according reporting from The near-earth object was discovered in 2024 and has stirred up conversation on social media because it will make a close pass by Earth — within 60,000 miles, the publication reported. An impact with Earth would cause a massive explosion and impact crater, astronomers say. The asteroid, known as Asteroid 2024 YR4, was first reported to the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27, 2024. At the time, initial estimate said it had a 1.2% chance of striking Earth. The estimate has been increased to a 2.3% chance. Here's everything we know about the asteroid: The asteroid is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide. Data suggests that the asteroid has an elongated shape, while measurements at visible wavelengths suggest it may be stony in composition, according to the Planetary Society. Asteroids orbit around celestial bodies and 2024 YR4 is actually slated to make a pass near earth in 2028 at about 20 times the Earth-Moon distance, according to NASA, so there's no chance of it impacting Earth. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) estimates that Dec. 22, 2032, is the date that 2024 YR4 will pass closest to Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4's current orbit is taking it away from Earth; it's currently about 30 million miles away. Asteroid Hunter David Rankin, who says 'precovered' the asteroid,' found it in data from Catalina Sky Survey. Rankin wasn't surprised about the odds tipping against us, but predicts the chances will fall again. "We still expect that to start falling at some point. People should absolutely not worry about this yet," Rankin told Predicting exactly where an asteroid is likely to end up is pretty difficult. In his interview with Rankin explained that some characteristics of an asteroid's orbit are more confidently confirmed than others. More: Dozens of metro Detroit restaurants have Valentine's Day specials More: Detroit Lions fan from U.P. honored as NFL Fan of the Year When an asteroid like 2024 YR4 is discovered, it is constantly monitored, and predictions are updated as new data becomes available. While scientists may have a pretty good idea of an asteroid's orbit relative to the exact time the data was captured, the slightest deviation could have a profound impact on where exactly the asteroid will be when it eventually passes Earth. Rankin explained that it's 'not possible' to have a perfect idea of the asteroid's position. Instead, scientists 'plot all the possible orbits that fit the given observational arc at any given time.' In other words, Asteroid 2024 YR4's chances of striking Earth will change as more observations are made. 2024 YR4 currently has a 1-in-43 chance of striking Earth in 2032, but astronomers have rushed to put some context around those numbers in hopes to quell any fears. As points out, while the chances of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 have nearly doubled, the chances that it won't haven't halved. This is one of those times when numbers can, in fact, be misleading when presented without context. In statistics, it's more accurate to use numbers to describe small sample sizes because using percentages can create misleading perceptions. For context, 2024 YR4 rates at a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The scale, which ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (a collision is certain and would cause worldwide devastation,) is a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects, USA Today reported. Ratings of 1 on the Torino scale are fairly common among newly discovered asteroids, but follow-up observations have always reduced that rating to 0, according to the Planetary Society. This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Asteroid has a chance of hitting Earth. Why scientists say don't worry
