Latest news with #AndyLipow
Yahoo
18 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices rise after US strikes on Iran with Strait of Hormuz status in focus
Oil futures rose on Sunday night after US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear sites intensified fears of a potential supply shock, amid the threat that Tehran could retaliate by closing a key maritime chokepoint. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, gained as much as 5.7% before paring gains to trade near $79 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures also jumped more than 2% to trade north of $75 per barrel. Oil prices had already posted weekly gains on Friday following the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran more than a week ago. On Sunday, traders weighed possible retaliation moves from Iran, a major oil producer and exporter, following the US's direct involvement. According to state media, Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision on whether to shut the vital waterway — which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows — rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What Wall Street once viewed as a low-probability event is now being treated as a significantly heightened risk. "Should oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz be affected, we could easily see $100 oil," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran war, JPMorgan analysts forecast that under a "severe outcome," a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $120–$130 per barrel. If crude climbs into that range, analysts predict gasoline and diesel prices could rise by as much as $1.25 per gallon. 'Consumers would be looking at a national average gasoline price of around $4.50 per gallon—closer to $6.00 if you're in California,' Lipow said. Other possible retaliatory moves from Iran could include supporting Yemen's Houthi rebels in renewed attacks on commercial shipping. If the conflict escalates and the US or Israel targets Iran's oil export infrastructure, analysts warn that Tehran may retaliate by striking facilities in neighboring countries. 'In other words, 'If we can't export our oil, you can't have yours,'' Lipow said. The key issue isn't just the potential for disruption, but how long it lasts, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Sunday. 'If infrastructure is hit but can be quickly restored, crude may struggle to hold gains,' she said. 'But if Iran's response causes lasting damage or introduces long-term supply risk, we're likely to see a stronger and more sustained move higher.' Last week, JPMorgan analysts noted that since 1967 — aside from the Yom Kippur War in 1973 — none of the 11 major military conflicts involving Israel have had a lasting impact on oil prices. In contrast, events directly involving major regional oil producers — such as the first Gulf War in 1990, the Iraq War in 2003, and the imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018 — have all led to meaningful and sustained moves in oil markets. 'During these episodes, we estimate that oil traded at a $7–$14 per barrel premium to its fair value for an extended period,' wrote JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva and her team. They added that the most significant and lasting price impacts historically come from 'regime changes' in oil-producing countries — whether that be through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts. 'While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity shape the broader market response, these events typically drive substantial oil price spikes, averaging a 76% increase from onset to peak,' Kaneva wrote. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) had raised output in the months leading up to Israel's strike on Iran on June 13. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
9 News
19 hours ago
- Business
- 9 News
Fears oil prices could surge in US after Iran strikes
Your web browser is no longer supported. To improve your experience update it here High oil and petrol prices are a near certainty, experts say. The big question now: how long will the fossil fuels price spike last? Oil prices are expected to rise by about $US5 ($7.72) a barrel when markets open on Sunday night local time, according to experts. An oil tanker is loaded at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia. (Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters/File via CNN) "We are looking at $US80 oil on the open," said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. US oil hasn't closed above $US80 a barrel since January and has largely hovered between $US60 and $US75 a barrel since August 2024. Relatively tame oil prices have lowered petrol prices to below $US3 a gallon (about $1.22 a litre) in many parts of the country, a major source of price relief for inflation-weary consumers. It's unclear if any major spike in oil prices will be sustained for a long period. Oil prices have risen about 10 per cent since Israel's surprise attack on June 13 and then fell on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week deadline on whether to strike Iran. Oil tankers have in the past been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. (AAP) "One shouldn't necessarily assume that just because the price of oil goes up, it's going to stay there. It doesn't," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the accounting firm RSM. The direction oil prices take is likely to depend on whether Iran's parliament decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route that accounts for about 20 per cent of the world's crude oil. On Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country had "a variety of options" when deciding on how to respond to the US attacks; and a prominent adviser to Iran's supreme leader has already called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the Fordow enrichment facility in Iran after the US strikes. (Maxar Technologies) Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former energy adviser to president George W Bush, said that should Iran cut off the world's oil supply by closing the strait, it would risk more military force from the US and its allies. Iran could also attack infrastructure in the Persian Gulf that treated and exported oil and gas. "It's possible they will decide the only thing that can dissuade President Trump is the fear of an oil price spike," he said. "They have to actually create that fear." Appearing on Fox News, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, adding that closing it would do more damage to other economies than the US economy. China buys a third of all oil that comes from the Persian Gulf, while the US buys less than 3 per cent. "I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil," Rubio said. Rubio added that closing the strait would hurt other countries' economies more than the US economy. Meanwhile, American consumers may soon feel a price shock at the pump. "It takes five days or so for stations to pass along the prices they see in one day. If oil markets do surge today and then tomorrow, it could start showing up at the pump in a matter of hours," said Patrick De Haan, vice president of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel tracking platform. According to Lipow, should the Strait of Hormuz be affected, the price of oil could rise to $US100 ($154.50) a barrel, which would raise petrol and diesel prices by about US75 cents a gallon (about 29c a litre) from recent levels. Meanwhile, US trade policies combined with the Israel-Iran conflict "strongly suggest inflation will be moving faster and higher over the next 90 days," according to Brusuelas. Many mainstream economists argue that the low inflation of the spring represents a calm before the summer storm, when they expect prices to rise because of Trump's tariffs. oil Iran War Cost of Living Middle East USA World CONTACT US
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices surge 5% after US strikes on Iran with Strait of Hormuz status in focus
Oil surged more than 5% on Sunday after US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear sites intensified fears of a potential supply shock, amid growing concerns that Tehran could retaliate by closing a key maritime chokepoint. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, surged as much as 5.7% to hover above $81 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures were also expected to rise above $77 per barrel. Crude futures had already posted weekly gains following the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran just over a week ago. On Sunday, traders weighed possible retaliation moves from Iran, a major oil producer and exporter, following the US's direct involvement. According to state media, Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision on whether to shut the vital waterway — which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows — rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What Wall Street once viewed as a low-probability event is now being treated as a significantly heightened risk. "Should oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz be affected, we could easily see $100 oil," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran war, JPMorgan analysts forecast that under a "severe outcome," a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $120–$130 per barrel. If crude climbs into that range, analysts predict gasoline and diesel prices could rise by as much as $1.25 per gallon. 'Consumers would be looking at a national average gasoline price of around $4.50 per gallon—closer to $6.00 if you're in California,' Lipow said. Other possible retaliatory moves from Iran could include supporting Yemen's Houthi rebels in renewed attacks on commercial shipping. If the conflict escalates and the US or Israel targets Iran's oil export infrastructure, analysts warn that Tehran may retaliate by striking export facilities in neighboring countries. 'In other words, 'If we can't export our oil, you can't have yours,'' Lipow said. The key issue isn't just the potential for disruption, but how long it lasts, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Sunday. 'If infrastructure is hit but can be quickly restored, crude may struggle to hold gains,' she said. 'But if Iran's response causes lasting damage or introduces long-term supply risk, we're likely to see a stronger and more sustained move higher.' Last week, JPMorgan analysts noted that since 1967 — aside from the Yom Kippur War in 1973 — none of the 11 major military conflicts involving Israel have had a lasting impact on oil prices. In contrast, events directly involving major regional oil producers — such as the first Gulf War in 1990, the Iraq War in 2003, and the imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018 — have all led to meaningful and sustained moves in oil markets. 'During these episodes, we estimate that oil traded at a $7–$14 per barrel premium to its fair value for an extended period,' wrote JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva and her team. They added that the most significant and lasting price impacts historically come from 'regime changes' in oil-producing countries — whether that be through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts. 'While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity shape the broader market response, these events typically drive substantial oil price spikes, averaging a 76% increase from onset to peak,' Kaneva wrote. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) had raised output in the months leading up to Israel's strike on Iran on June 13. Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
CTV News
a day ago
- Business
- CTV News
America's economy faces a potential war shock: Surging oil prices
The American economy faces the unwelcome prospect of reignited inflation after the United States launched strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran. High oil and gas prices are a near certainty, experts say. The big question now: How long will the fossil fuels price spike last? Oil prices are expected to rise by about $5 per barrel when markets open on Sunday, according to experts. 'We are looking at $80 oil on the open,' said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. U.S. oil hasn't closed above $80 a barrel since January and has largely hovered between $60 and $75 a barrel since August 2024. Relatively tame oil prices have lowered gas prices to below $3 a gallon in many parts of the country, a major source of price relief for inflation-weary consumers. It's unclear if any major spike in oil prices will be sustained for a long period. Oil prices have risen about 10% since Israel's surprise attack on June 13 and then fell on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week deadline on whether to strike Iran. 'One shouldn't necessarily assume that just because the price of oil goes up, it's going to stay there. It doesn't,' said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the accounting firm RSM. The direction oil prices take is likely to depend on whether Iran's parliament decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route that accounts for about 20% of the world's crude oil. On Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country has 'a variety of options' when deciding how to respond to the U.S. attacks and a prominent adviser to Iran's supreme leader has already called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, said that should Iran cut off the world's oil supply by closing the strait it would risk more military force from the United States and its allies. Iran could also attack infrastructure in the Persian Gulf that treats and exports oil and gas. 'It's possible they will decide the only thing that can dissuade President Trump is the fear of an oil price spike,' he said. 'They have to actually create that fear.' Appearing Sunday on Fox News, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, adding that closing it would do more damage to other economies than the U.S. economy. China buys a third of all oil that comes from the Persian Gulf, while the United States buys less than 3%. 'I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said. Rubio added that closing the strait would hurt other countries' economies more than the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, American consumers may soon feel a price shock at the pump. 'It takes five days or so for stations to pass along the prices they see in one day. If oil markets do surge today and then tomorrow, it could start showing up at the pump in a matter of hours,' said Patrick De Haan, vice president of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel tracking platform. According to Lipow, should the Strait of Hormuz be affected, the price of oil could rise to $100 a barrel, which would raise gas and diesel prices by about 75 cents per gallon from recent levels. Meanwhile, U.S. trade policies combined with the war with Iran 'strongly suggest inflation will be moving faster and higher over the next 90 days,' according to Brusuelas. Many mainstream economists argue that the low inflation of the spring represents a calm before the summer storm, when they expect prices to rise because of Trump's tariffs.
CNN
a day ago
- Business
- CNN
America's economy is about to get a war shock: Surging oil prices
The American economy faces the unwelcome prospect of reignited inflation after the United States launched strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran. High oil and gas prices are a near certainty, experts say. The big question now: How long will the fossil fuels price spike last? Oil prices are expected to rise by about $5 per barrel when markets open on Sunday, according to experts. 'We are looking at $80 oil on the open,' said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. US oil hasn't closed above $80 a barrel since January and has largely hovered between $60 and $75 a barrel since August 2024. Relatively tame oil prices have lowered gas prices to below $3 a gallon in many parts of the country, a major source of price relief for inflation-weary consumers. It's unclear if any major spike in oil prices will be sustained for a long period. Oil prices have risen about 10% since Israel's surprise attack on June 13 and then fell on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week deadline on whether to strike Iran. 'One shouldn't necessarily assume that just because the price of oil goes up, it's going to stay there. It doesn't,' said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the accounting firm RSM. The direction oil prices take is likely to depend on whether Iran's parliament decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route that accounts for about 20% of the world's crude oil. On Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country has 'a variety of options' when deciding how to respond to the US attacks and a prominent adviser to Iran's supreme leader has already called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, said that should Iran cut off the world's oil supply by closing the strait it would risk more military force from the United States and its allies. Iran could also attack infrastructure in the Persian Gulf that treats and exports oil and gas. 'It's possible they will decide the only thing that can dissuade President Trump is the fear of an oil price spike,' he said. 'They have to actually create that fear.' Appearing Sunday on Fox News, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, adding that closing it would do more damage to other economies than the US economy. China buys a third of all oil that comes from the Persian Gulf, while the United States buys less than 3%. 'I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said. Rubio added that closing the strait would hurt other countries' economies more than the US economy. Meanwhile, American consumers may soon feel a price shock at the pump. 'It takes five days or so for stations to pass along the prices they see in one day. If oil markets do surge today and then tomorrow, it could start showing up at the pump in a matter of hours,' said Patrick De Haan, vice president of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel tracking platform. According to Lipow, should the Strait of Hormuz be affected, the price of oil could rise to $100 a barrel, which would raise gas and diesel prices by about 75 cents per gallon from recent levels. Meanwhile, US trade policies combined with the war with Iran 'strongly suggest inflation will be moving faster and higher over the next 90 days,' according to Brusuelas. Many mainstream economists argue that the low inflation of the spring represents a calm before the summer storm, when they expect prices to rise because of Trump's tariffs.
