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The Hindu
12 hours ago
- Business
- The Hindu
Rupee rises 14 paise to close at 86.59 against U.S. dollar
The Rupee appreciated by 14 paise to close at 86.59 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (June 20, 2025) aided by a fall in global crude oil prices and a weakening greenback. A strong show in the domestic equity markets and FII inflows further supported the local unit, according to forex traders. At the interbank foreign exchange, the Rupee opened at 86.65 against the U.S. dollar and traded in a narrow range of 86.55-86.67 before settling at 86.59 (provisional), up 14 paise. The Rupee had lost 30 paise to close at an over two-month low of 86.73 against the dollar on Thursday (June 19, 2025), logging a combined loss of 69 paise during the past three sessions. "The Rupee eased today (June 20, 2025) but declined a little more than 1% this month so far, with a large portion of its decline occurring after Israel attacked targets in Iran last Friday(June 13, 2025). The attacks also raised concerns about disruption of global oil prices, sending Brent crude oil futures to a five-month peak around $79 per barrel," Maneesh Sharma, AVP-Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said. "The local currency ... was comforted by a dip in oil prices after the White House said President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran war," Mr. Sharma said. Meanwhile, expectation that HDB Financial IPO is likely to witness significant inflows is seen as positive for the Rupee as broad range of 86.20-86.70 may persist during start of the next week, he added. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.30% lower at 98.60. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,046.30 points to settle at 82,408.17, while Nifty surged 319.15 points to 25,112.40. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 2.36% to $76.99 per barrel in futures trade. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth ₹934.62 crore on a net basis on Thursday (June 20, 2025), according to exchange data.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Commodity Radar: MCX crude oil futures cross 200-DMA amid Israel-Iran tension. Can it breach this crucial resistance zone?
Tight inventories and a declining number of operational oil rigs have kept the prices in a positive territory throughout June, so far. Synopsis Crude oil prices are on an upswing amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions, tight inventories, and declining rig counts. Naveen Mathur of Anand Rathi says prices could stay elevated unless tensions ease. With key resistance at Rs 6,300 and global volatility, oil remains bullish despite intermittent profit booking. Amid growing geopolitical unrest between Israel and Iran, oil prices are back in their 70s and concerns over disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and targeted energy infrastructure, combined with declining oil rigs and tepid OPEC supply, are pushing prices higher, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said. He sees that market sentiment remains bullish unless tensions ease significantly. Edited excerpts: ADVERTISEMENT Crude oil futures were trading in the green on Wednesday, notwithstanding some profit booking in the international markets. Crude oil prices have firmed up on Israel-Iran tensions, and there is a view in certain sections that the prices could double to $150 per barrel. The July crude oil futures were trading at Rs 6,324 per bbl on the MCX, gaining Rs 25 or 0.4% over the previous closing. Meanwhile, on the COMEX, crude oil contracts were trading around $74.54 per bbl, declining by $0.30 or 0.40%. Brent oil futures were down by $0.44 or 0.58% and hovering near the $76.01 mark. Commenting on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the geopolitical tensions have once again gripped oil markets, this time driven by the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the potential for supply disruptions, which have acted as a catalyst for oil's dramatic 10% price rise over the last five days. Moreover, tight inventories and a declining number of operational oil rigs have kept the prices in a positive territory throughout June, so far. 'The recent escalation in tensions has added fuel to the rally, with prices up nearly 20% so far this month. There is a heightened risk to Iran's oil output (OPEC's third-largest producer), and potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass—are fueling volatility. The fact that both sides have targeted energy infrastructure is a clear cause for concern, with the key export hub of Kharg Island and oilfields in Iraq potentially at risk. However, the threat to block the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest wild card,' Mathur added. ADVERTISEMENT Mathur highlighted that oil rigs continue to decline and are now at their lowest level in four years. Moreover, despite OPEC's announcement of an aggressive unwinding of production cuts, the actual output increase in May was much lower than expected. 1. Key levels: Resistance & Support ADVERTISEMENT MCX Crude Oil is displaying a bullish trend as it trades above the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at Rs 5,846, though it faces a significant resistance level at Rs 6,100, and a breakout above this could trigger further upside momentum, the Anand Rathi expert resistance levels are seen at 6300, 6460, and 6850, while support is placed at 6011, 5840, and 5700. 2. Moving Averages: A positive crossover of the 21 and 50 Daily Moving Averages reinforces the bullish sentiment. ADVERTISEMENT The MACD indicator continues to trend above the zero line, adding strength to the upward Crude Oil is approaching a crucial zone between $70 and $73, with $68 acting as a strong support level for a potential upside rally towards $75–$78. Additional support levels are identified at $65.90, $64, and $62.40. Also Read: Commodity Radar: Copper gets a Chinese glow. Is it time to mine profits? ADVERTISEMENT (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) Nikita Papers IPO opens on May 27, price band set at Rs 95-104 per share Nikita Papers IPO opens on May 27, price band set at Rs 95-104 per share Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? 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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Commodity Radar: MCX crude oil futures cross 200-DMA amid Israel-Iran tension. Can it breach this crucial resistance zone?
Live Events Tech View 2 things to watch out for Outlook (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Amid growing geopolitical unrest between Israel and Iran, oil prices are back in their 70s and concerns over disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and targeted energy infrastructure, combined with declining oil rigs and tepid OPEC supply, are pushing prices higher, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said. He sees that market sentiment remains bullish unless tensions ease significantly. Edited excerpts:Crude oil futures were trading in the green on Wednesday, notwithstanding some profit booking in the international markets. Crude oil prices have firmed up on Israel-Iran tensions, and there is a view in certain sections that the prices could double to $150 per July crude oil futures were trading at Rs 6,324 per bbl on the MCX, gaining Rs 25 or 0.4% over the previous on the COMEX, crude oil contracts were trading around $74.54 per bbl, declining by $0.30 or 0.40%. Brent oil futures were down by $0.44 or 0.58% and hovering near the $76.01 on the current trends, Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said that the geopolitical tensions have once again gripped oil markets, this time driven by the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the potential for supply disruptions, which have acted as a catalyst for oil's dramatic 10% price rise over the last five tight inventories and a declining number of operational oil rigs have kept the prices in a positive territory throughout June, so far.'The recent escalation in tensions has added fuel to the rally, with prices up nearly 20% so far this month. There is a heightened risk to Iran's oil output (OPEC's third-largest producer), and potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass—are fueling volatility. The fact that both sides have targeted energy infrastructure is a clear cause for concern, with the key export hub of Kharg Island and oilfields in Iraq potentially at risk. However, the threat to block the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest wild card,' Mathur highlighted that oil rigs continue to decline and are now at their lowest level in four despite OPEC's announcement of an aggressive unwinding of production cuts, the actual output increase in May was much lower than Crude Oil is displaying a bullish trend as it trades above the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at Rs 5,846, though it faces a significant resistance level at Rs 6,100, and a breakout above this could trigger further upside momentum, the Anand Rathi expert resistance levels are seen at 6300, 6460, and 6850, while support is placed at 6011, 5840, and 5700.A positive crossover of the 21 and 50 Daily Moving Averages reinforces the bullish MACD indicator continues to trend above the zero line, adding strength to the upward Crude Oil is approaching a crucial zone between $70 and $73, with $68 acting as a strong support level for a potential upside rally towards $75–$78. Additional support levels are identified at $65.90, $64, and $ Read: Commodity Radar: Copper gets a Chinese glow. Is it time to mine profits? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
News18
3 days ago
- Business
- News18
Israel-Iran War: Has Nifty Already Priced In Middle East Tensions? Experts Analyse
Last Updated: Experts believe that while the current escalation has not yet crossed a threshold to warrant a full-blown market correction Israel-Iran Conflict: Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, traded on a subdued note Wednesday amid escalating missile strikes between Iran and Israel, prompting investors to tread cautiously. As of 11:40 AM, the BSE Sensex was down 310 points or 0.38% at 81,272.93, while the NSE Nifty50 slipped 80 points or 0.32% to 24,774.30. Market experts suggest that investors may have already priced in the geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran conflict. Monday's strong market close indicates a shift in investor attention toward domestic growth drivers and corporate fundamentals. Middle East Tensions: Has the Market Priced In the Israel-Iran Conflict? According to Anubhav Sangal, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, the Indian stock market seems to be factoring in a limited conflict scenario rather than a prolonged regional war. 'The market has partially discounted the Israel-Iran conflict, reflecting both vulnerability and resilience. While initial reactions triggered volatility and sectoral churn, the overall discounting remains incomplete and highly conditional," he noted. Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research – Investment Services, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, 'We believe markets have partially priced in the Iran conflict in the sense that it has taken cognisance of the conflicts, but the final outcome is still unknown and hence not priced. Believe markets are still wishful/hopeful of some kind of de-escalation coming in few days and may not have priced for any serious escalation or a potential catastrophic threshold involving US directly for the region." Analysts estimate that crude prices have jumped about 10% so far, and further escalation could push them up another 8–9%. 'Israel's airstrikes on Iran have sparked fears of supply chain disruptions. The market is anxiously watching how Iran will respond. Any retaliation could send prices soaring and push the region into a deeper crisis," said Navneet Damani, Group Senior VP and Head of Commodities Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Gold, meanwhile, has rallied to an all-time high of Rs 1 lakh in the domestic market and is nearing $3,500 per ounce globally, as investors shift towards safe-haven assets amid the growing geopolitical uncertainty. What Should Be Your Trading Strategy? Experts believe that while the current escalation has not yet crossed a threshold to warrant a full-blown market correction, further deterioration could lead to significant downside. Traders are advised to maintain a cautious stance, stay hedged, and keep a close watch on geopolitical developments, as volatility could spike sharply if tensions worsen. Anubhav Sangal of Bonanza recommends investors to treat geopolitical dips as buying opportunities. ' For now, markets are treating geopolitical dips as buying opportunities, supported by India's strong domestic fundamentals and limited direct exposure to the conflict zone," he said.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
How will the surge in crude oil prices affect various sectors?
The latest surge in global prices of crude oil, unless short-lived, may potentially affect profitability of companies in the select sectors that either process it to produce finished products or consume intermediates derived from it. Companies in the sectors including crude oil refining, paints, aviation, automobiles, petrochemicals and fertilisers are expected to be affected by the rapid increase in crude prices whereas those in the business of oil production or upstream companies and companies in the electric vehicles (EV) segment may benefit depending upon the government's policies. Brent crude futures jumped 7per cent to settle at $74.23 per barrel on Friday, after briefly soaring over 13per cent to touch an intraday high of $78.50, as fears of supply disruption due to escalating tension between Israel and Iran rattled energy markets. Since India imports over 85per cent of the crude oil requirement, a sustained rise in oil prices may result in broader inflationary pressures. However, the exact impact hinges on how long prices remain elevated. "It is too early to fully gauge the impact. A prolonged spike could put significant pressure on corporate margins," said Narendra Solanki, fundamental research head, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. He added that if prices retreat soon, the effect on companies will be minimal. "We lift our three-month price target to $72.5, while our view and long term targets remain unchanged at Neutral and $60," said Norbert Rucker, head economics, Julius Baer, in an email quote citing that structural setting of the oil market should remain unscathed. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs): Margin pressure looms Companies such as Indian Oil Corp , BPCL , and HPCL may face shrinking margins. While higher crude oil prices raise refining costs, OMCs may not be able to fully pass on the impact to end users, leading to potential under-recoveries and profit erosion. Oil & Gas Producers: Beneficiaries of the surge Upstream companies such as ONGC and Oil India sell domestically produced crude at prices linked to global benchmarks. While sustained rally in oil prices potentially improve their realisations, the effect on their revenues, and profit margins will depend upon the government's stance. For instance, it levied a windfall tax on profits of oil producers between July 2022 and December 2024 when crude prices rose due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Aviation: Soaring fuel bills Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) or jet fuel, derived from crude, forms over one-third of an airline's operating cost. A rise in crude prices inflates fuel expenses, putting pressure on the bottom lines of carriers. Airlines may respond by increasing fare, but at the risk of dampening demand in a price-sensitive market. Paints: Costs could dull profitability Paint manufacturers like Asian Paints , Berger Paints , and Kansai Nerolac depend on crude derivatives such as solvents and resins, which form nearly 50per cent of total costs. Rising crude prices could force companies to increase retail prices, potentially hurting demand and market growth. Chemicals & Petrochemicals: Feedstock woes Naphtha, ethane, propane, and other crude derivatives are essential feedstocks for producing plastics, synthetic fibres, solvents, and a vast array of chemicals. Raw material cost is nearly half of the total revenues for chemical and petrochemical firms. Companies like Pidilite , SRF , Aarti Industries , and Deepak Nitrite will face a surge in raw material costs if crude prices stay elevated for a longer period. Fertiliser companies: Energy cost overhang The production of nitrogen-based fertilisers, particularly urea and ammonia, depends on natural gas and oil as feedstock. Rising crude often pulls up LNG (liquefied natural gas) prices, making fertiliser production more expensive. This could lead to higher retail prices and a larger subsidy burden for the government. Automobiles: Input costs up, electric vehicles get a boost Automobile manufacturers may witness a rise in costs due to more expensive plastics, rubber, and composites-all derived from petroleum. While this could put pressure on the profit margins of traditional automakers, the surge in fuel prices could enhance the appeal of electric vehicles (EVs), giving the manufacturers of electrics a relative advantage.
