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6 days ago
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Analysis-OPEC+ would struggle to cover major Iranian oil supply disruption
By Ahmad Ghaddar and Seher Dareen LONDON (Reuters) -Oil market participants have switched to dreading a shortage in fuel from focusing on impending oversupply in just two days this week. After Israel attacked Iran and Tehran pledged to retaliate, oil prices jumped as much as 13% to their highest since January as investors price in an increased probability of a major disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Part of the reason for the rapid spike is that spare capacity among OPEC and allies to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran's output, according to analysts and OPEC watchers. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only OPEC+ members capable of quickly boosting output and could pump around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) more, analysts and industry sources said. Iran's production stands at around 3.3 million bpd, and it exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel. There has been no impact on output so far from Israel's attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, nor on exports from the region. But fears that Israel may destroy Iranian oil facilities to deprive it of its main source of revenue have driven oil prices higher. The Brent benchmark last traded up nearly 7% at over $74 on Friday. An attack with a significant impact on Iranian output that required other producers to pump more to plug the gap would leave very little spare capacity to deal with other disruptions - which can happen due to war, natural disasters or accidents. And that with a caveat that Iran does not attack its neighbours in retaliation for Israeli strikes. Iran has in the past threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. The Strait is the exit route from the Middle East Gulf for around 20% of the world's oil supply, including Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Iranian exports. Iran has also previously stated that it would attack other oil suppliers that filled any gap in supplies left due to sanctions or attacks on Iran. "If Iran responds by disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting regional oil infrastructure, or striking U.S. military assets, the market reaction could be much more severe, potentially pushing prices up by $20 per barrel or more," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. CHANGE IN CALCULUS The abrupt change in calculus for oil investors this week comes after months in which output increases from OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have led to investor concern about future oversupply and a potential price crash. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been the driving force behind an acceleration in the group's output increases, in part to punish allies that have pumped more oil than they were supposed to under OPEC+ agreements. The increases have already strained the capacity of some members to produce more, causing them to fall short of their new targets. Even after recent increases, the group still has output curbs in place of about 4.5 million bpd, which were agreed over the past five years to balance supply and demand. But some of that spare oil capacity - the difference between actual output and notional production potential that can be brought online quickly and sustained - exists only on paper. After years of production cuts and reduced oilfield investment following the COVID-19 pandemic, the oilfields and facilities may no longer be able to restart quickly, said analysts and OPEC watchers. Western sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela have also led to decreases in oil investment in those countries. "Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity," J.P. Morgan said in a note. Outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, spare capacity was negligible, said a senior industry source who works with OPEC+ producers. "Saudi are the only ones with real barrels, the rest is paper," the source said. He asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. PAPER BARRELS Saudi oil output is set to rise to above 9.5 million bpd in July, leaving the kingdom with the ability to raise output by another 2.5 million bpd if it decides to. That capacity has been tested, however, only once in the last decade and only for one month in 2020 when Saudi Arabia and Russia fell out and pumped at will in a fight for market share. Saudi Arabia has also stopped investing in expanding its spare capacity beyond 12 million bpd as the kingdom diverted resources to other projects. Russia, the second largest producer inside OPEC+, claims it can pump above 12 million bpd. JP Morgan estimates, however, that Moscow can only ramp up output by 250,000 bpd to 9.5 million bpd over the next three months and will struggle to raise output further due to sanctions. The UAE says its maximum oil production capacity is 4.85 million bpd, and told OPEC that its production of crude alone in April stood at just over 2.9 million bpd, a figure largely endorsed by OPEC's secondary sources. The International Energy Agency, however, estimated the country's crude production at about 3.3 million bpd in April, and says the UAE has the capacity to raise that by a further 1 million bpd. BNP Paribas sees UAE output even higher at 3.5-4.0 million bpd. "I think spare capacity is significantly lower than what's often quoted," said BNP analyst Aldo Spanjer. The difference in ability to raise production has already created tensions inside OPEC+. Saudi Arabia favours unwinding cuts of about 800,000 bpd by the end of October, sources have told Reuters. At their last meeting, Russia along with Oman and Algeria expressed support for pausing a hike for July. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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13-06-2025
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Analysis-OPEC+ would struggle to cover major Iranian oil supply disruption
By Ahmad Ghaddar and Seher Dareen LONDON (Reuters) -Oil market participants have switched to dreading a shortage in fuel from focusing on impending oversupply in just two days this week. After Israel attacked Iran and Tehran pledged to retaliate, oil prices jumped as much as 13% to their highest since January as investors price in an increased probability of a major disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Part of the reason for the rapid spike is that spare capacity among OPEC and allies to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran's output, according to analysts and OPEC watchers. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only OPEC+ members capable of quickly boosting output and could pump around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) more, analysts and industry sources said. Iran's production stands at around 3.3 million bpd, and it exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel. There has been no impact on output so far from Israel's attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, nor on exports from the region. But fears that Israel may destroy Iranian oil facilities to deprive it of its main source of revenue have driven oil prices higher. The Brent benchmark last traded up nearly 7% at over $74 on Friday. An attack with a significant impact on Iranian output that required other producers to pump more to plug the gap would leave very little spare capacity to deal with other disruptions - which can happen due to war, natural disasters or accidents. And that with a caveat that Iran does not attack its neighbours in retaliation for Israeli strikes. Iran has in the past threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. The Strait is the exit route from the Middle East Gulf for around 20% of the world's oil supply, including Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Iranian exports. Iran has also previously stated that it would attack other oil suppliers that filled any gap in supplies left due to sanctions or attacks on Iran. "If Iran responds by disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting regional oil infrastructure, or striking U.S. military assets, the market reaction could be much more severe, potentially pushing prices up by $20 per barrel or more," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. CHANGE IN CALCULUS The abrupt change in calculus for oil investors this week comes after months in which output increases from OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have led to investor concern about future oversupply and a potential price crash. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been the driving force behind an acceleration in the group's output increases, in part to punish allies that have pumped more oil than they were supposed to under OPEC+ agreements. The increases have already strained the capacity of some members to produce more, causing them to fall short of their new targets. Even after recent increases, the group still has output curbs in place of about 4.5 million bpd, which were agreed over the past five years to balance supply and demand. But some of that spare oil capacity - the difference between actual output and notional production potential that can be brought online quickly and sustained - exists only on paper. After years of production cuts and reduced oilfield investment following the COVID-19 pandemic, the oilfields and facilities may no longer be able to restart quickly, said analysts and OPEC watchers. Western sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela have also led to decreases in oil investment in those countries. "Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity," J.P. Morgan said in a note. Outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, spare capacity was negligible, said a senior industry source who works with OPEC+ producers. "Saudi are the only ones with real barrels, the rest is paper," the source said. He asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. PAPER BARRELS Saudi oil output is set to rise to above 9.5 million bpd in July, leaving the kingdom with the ability to raise output by another 2.5 million bpd if it decides to. That capacity has been tested, however, only once in the last decade and only for one month in 2020 when Saudi Arabia and Russia fell out and pumped at will in a fight for market share. Saudi Arabia has also stopped investing in expanding its spare capacity beyond 12 million bpd as the kingdom diverted resources to other projects. Russia, the second largest producer inside OPEC+, claims it can pump above 12 million bpd. JP Morgan estimates, however, that Moscow can only ramp up output by 250,000 bpd to 9.5 million bpd over the next three months and will struggle to raise output further due to sanctions. The UAE says its maximum oil production capacity is 4.85 million bpd, and told OPEC that its production of crude alone in April stood at just over 2.9 million bpd, a figure largely endorsed by OPEC's secondary sources. The International Energy Agency, however, estimated the country's crude production at about 3.3 million bpd in April, and says the UAE has the capacity to raise that by a further 1 million bpd. BNP Paribas sees UAE output even higher at 3.5-4.0 million bpd. "I think spare capacity is significantly lower than what's often quoted," said BNP analyst Aldo Spanjer. The difference in ability to raise production has already created tensions inside OPEC+. Saudi Arabia favours unwinding cuts of about 800,000 bpd by the end of October, sources have told Reuters. At their last meeting, Russia along with Oman and Algeria expressed support for pausing a hike for July. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-OPEC+ would struggle to cover major Iranian oil supply disruption
By Ahmad Ghaddar and Seher Dareen LONDON (Reuters) -Oil market participants have switched to dreading a shortage in fuel from focusing on impending oversupply in just two days this week. After Israel attacked Iran and Tehran pledged to retaliate, oil prices jumped as much as 13% to their highest since January as investors price in an increased probability of a major disruption in Middle East oil supplies. Part of the reason for the rapid spike is that spare capacity among OPEC and allies to pump more oil to offset any disruption is roughly equivalent to Iran's output, according to analysts and OPEC watchers. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only OPEC+ members capable of quickly boosting output and could pump around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) more, analysts and industry sources said. Iran's production stands at around 3.3 million bpd, and it exports over 2 million bpd of oil and fuel. There has been no impact on output so far from Israel's attacks on Iran's oil and gas infrastructure, nor on exports from the region. But fears that Israel may destroy Iranian oil facilities to deprive it of its main source of revenue have driven oil prices higher. The Brent benchmark last traded up nearly 7% at over $74 on Friday. An attack with a significant impact on Iranian output that required other producers to pump more to plug the gap would leave very little spare capacity to deal with other disruptions - which can happen due to war, natural disasters or accidents. And that with a caveat that Iran does not attack its neighbours in retaliation for Israeli strikes. Iran has in the past threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. The Strait is the exit route from the Middle East Gulf for around 20% of the world's oil supply, including Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Iranian exports. Iran has also previously stated that it would attack other oil suppliers that filled any gap in supplies left due to sanctions or attacks on Iran. "If Iran responds by disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, targeting regional oil infrastructure, or striking U.S. military assets, the market reaction could be much more severe, potentially pushing prices up by $20 per barrel or more," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. CHANGE IN CALCULUS The abrupt change in calculus for oil investors this week comes after months in which output increases from OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have led to investor concern about future oversupply and a potential price crash. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has been the driving force behind an acceleration in the group's output increases, in part to punish allies that have pumped more oil than they were supposed to under OPEC+ agreements. The increases have already strained the capacity of some members to produce more, causing them to fall short of their new targets. Even after recent increases, the group still has output curbs in place of about 4.5 million bpd, which were agreed over the past five years to balance supply and demand. But some of that spare oil capacity - the difference between actual output and notional production potential that can be brought online quickly and sustained - exists only on paper. After years of production cuts and reduced oilfield investment following the COVID-19 pandemic, the oilfields and facilities may no longer be able to restart quickly, said analysts and OPEC watchers. Western sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela have also led to decreases in oil investment in those countries. "Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity," J.P. Morgan said in a note. Outside of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, spare capacity was negligible, said a senior industry source who works with OPEC+ producers. "Saudi are the only ones with real barrels, the rest is paper," the source said. He asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. PAPER BARRELS Saudi oil output is set to rise to above 9.5 million bpd in July, leaving the kingdom with the ability to raise output by another 2.5 million bpd if it decides to. That capacity has been tested, however, only once in the last decade and only for one month in 2020 when Saudi Arabia and Russia fell out and pumped at will in a fight for market share. Saudi Arabia has also stopped investing in expanding its spare capacity beyond 12 million bpd as the kingdom diverted resources to other projects. Russia, the second largest producer inside OPEC+, claims it can pump above 12 million bpd. JP Morgan estimates, however, that Moscow can only ramp up output by 250,000 bpd to 9.5 million bpd over the next three months and will struggle to raise output further due to sanctions. The UAE says its maximum oil production capacity is 4.85 million bpd, and told OPEC that its production of crude alone in April stood at just over 2.9 million bpd, a figure largely endorsed by OPEC's secondary sources. The International Energy Agency, however, estimated the country's crude production at about 3.3 million bpd in April, and says the UAE has the capacity to raise that by a further 1 million bpd. BNP Paribas sees UAE output even higher at 3.5-4.0 million bpd. "I think spare capacity is significantly lower than what's often quoted," said BNP analyst Aldo Spanjer. The difference in ability to raise production has already created tensions inside OPEC+. Saudi Arabia favours unwinding cuts of about 800,000 bpd by the end of October, sources have told Reuters. At their last meeting, Russia along with Oman and Algeria expressed support for pausing a hike for July.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
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IEA says it stands ready to tap emergency oil stocks, OPEC sees no need
By Ahmad Ghaddar (Reuters) -The West's energy watchdog said on Friday it was ready to release oil stocks should the market experience shortages following Israel's attack on Iran, drawing criticism from rival OPEC which said the statement would only create fear in the market. The International Energy Agency, representing oil consumers, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, representing some of the world's top oil producers, have in recent years clashed on global oil demand trajectories and the pace of the energy transition. The IEA's head Fatih Birol said that while the oil market was well supplied, the agency would be ready to act if needed, adding that the agency's oil security system held 1.2 billion barrels of oil in strategic and emergency reserves. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais criticised Birol's statement, saying it "raises false alarms and projects a sense of market fear through repeating the unnecessary need to potentially use oil emergency stocks". He said there were no developments in supply or market dynamics that "warrant unnecessary measures". Oil prices jumped sharply after Israel launched a barrage of strikes across Iran on Friday, saying it had attacked nuclear facilities and missile factories and killed a swathe of military commanders in what could be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran building an atomic weapon. Oil prices were trading 7% higher, their biggest daily spike since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The United States and its allies, in coordination with the IEA, last tapped emergency oil stocks in early 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a decision that OPEC heavily criticised at the time. While Israel has stopped short of targeting Iran's energy facilities, market participants are wary the situation may escalate further leading to damage to energy infrastructure in Iran or its neighbours, as well as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In September 2019, Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen launched a drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil processing plant, knocking 5.7 million bpd of Saudi oil production offline and sending the oil market into a frenzy. Iran's diplomatic relations with its Gulf neighbours Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have improved significantly since that attack, though there are still some concerns in the region of a repeat of the Abqaiq scenario. "Oil has already spiked ... and its ultimate landing point will likely hinge on whether Iran revives the 2019 playbook and targets tankers, pipelines, and key energy facilities across the region," RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft said in a note following the Israeli attack. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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01-06-2025
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OPEC+ oil producers stick to their guns with another big hike for July
By Alex Lawler, Olesya Astakhova and Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -The world's largest group of oil producers, OPEC+, stuck to its guns on Saturday with another big increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July as it looks to wrestle back market share and punish over-producers. Having spent years curbing production - more than 5 million barrels a day (bpd) or 5% of world demand - eight OPEC+ countries made an modest output increase in April before tripling it for May, June and now July. They are spurring production despite the extra supply weighing on crude prices as group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia seek to win back market share as well as punish over-producing allies such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. "Today's decision only goes to show that market share is on top of the agenda. If price will not get you the revenues you want, they are hoping that volume will," said analyst Harry Tchilinguirian of Onyx Captal eight countries held an online meeting on Saturday to set July production. The also discussed other options, an OPEC+ delegate said. On Friday, sources familiar with OPEC+ talks had said they could discuss an even larger hike. In a statement OPEC+ cited a "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as its reasoning for the July increase. OPEC+ pumps about half of the world's oil and includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia. Its increased supply is weighing on crude prices, squeezing all producers, but some more than others, including a key group of rivals - U.S. shale producers, analysts say. "Three strikes from OPEC+, and none were softballs. May warned, June confirmed, and July fires a shot across the bow," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official. Since April, the OPEC+ eight have now made or announced increases totalling 1.37 million bpd, or 62% of the 2.2 million bpd they aim to add back to the market. Higher summer oil demand favours increasing output at this time, OPEC+ officials including Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak have said. "The oil market remains tight indicating it can absorb additional barrels, as the effective increase should be smaller as several of the eight countries are overproducing, and demand is seasonally rising," said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. Algeria was among a small number of nations that requested a pause in the output hikes on Saturday, a source familiar with the matter said. Oil prices fell to a four-year low in April, slipping below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ said it was tripling its output hike in May and as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs raised concerns about global economic weakness. Prices closed just below $63 on Friday. Global oil demand is expected to grow by an average of 775,000 bpd in 2025, according to a Reuters poll of analysts published on Friday, while the International Energy Agency in its latest outlook saw an increase of 740,000 bpd. Besides the 2.2 million bpd cut that the eight members started to unwind in April, OPEC+ has two other layers of cuts that are expected to remain in place until the end of 2026.
