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Indian Express
09-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Consumers' loss, farmer optimism: In US, trade war sees key groups at odds
April was one of the most important months in the world's economic history, with the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs coming into force on April 2 before being put on pause for 90 days a week later. The threat of the reciprocal tariffs, however, has seemingly had the opposite effect as American companies stocked up ahead of the tariffs' rollout. Data released last week showed that while the US' goods and services trade deficit in April 2025 fell a record 55 per cent from March 2025 to a 19-month low of $61.6 billion, the deficit for the first four months of 2025 was up 66 per cent compared to a year ago. The basis of Trump's reciprocal tariffs was that it would help bring down the US' trade deficit with various countries. Take India, for instance, which enjoyed a total trade surplus of $46.09 billion with the US in 2024. However, India's merchandise trade surplus with the US for the first four months of 2025 increased by 45 per cent to $23.29 billion, with imports from India up 29 per cent according to latest data from the US commerce department. In January-April 2025, the US imported $9.49 billion of advanced technology products from India, up 86 per cent from a year ago. Consumers & farmers American consumers have, for long, been considered the biggest losers in the Trump administration's pursuit of balanced trade. According to non-partisan policy research center The Budget Lab at Yale, American households, on average, are facing a consumption loss of $2,500 in 2025 when prices are measured in 2024 levels. 'The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.3%, a $2,100 loss per household,' The Budget Lab at Yale said. The Budget Lab estimates that Americans are facing an overall average effective tariff rate of 15.6 per cent at present — the highest since 1937 — with segments such as clothing and textiles being affected the most. In the short run, shoe and apparel prices for US consumers are up 31 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively. Despite the pain from tariffs, some in the US are still upbeat; in fact, more so than in several years. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index climbed to a four-year high last month, suggesting improved sentiment among farmers due to a 'much more optimistic view of US agricultural export prospects, combined with a less negative view of tariffs' impact on 2025 farm income than respondents provided in either March or April'. Exports are indeed on American farmers' minds, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins having recently visited Italy as part of her 'aggressive travel agenda to promote American agriculture worldwide'. The trip to Italy follows one to the UK in May 2025, with India, Vietnam, Japan, Peru, and Brazil on Rollins' schedule over the coming months. Shifting views on free trade Rather ironically, even as US and Chinese officials meet in London on Monday to add to the preliminary agreement that was agreed last month, American farmers have over the years grown somewhat skeptical of how beneficial free trade is. As per the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, 18 per cent of producers in May 2025 either disagreed or strongly disagreed when presented with the statement that 'free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries'. Back in December 2020, the corresponding number was just 7 per cent.
Epoch Times
04-06-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
Optimism for American Agriculture Highest in 4 Years: Farmer Survey
Farmer sentiment in the United States jumped in May from the previous month, with producers expressing a more optimistic view of American agriculture trade prospects, Purdue University said in a June 3 The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index hit 158 last month, up by 10 points from April, and has now recorded the highest level since May 2021. The index
Business Times
03-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US farm sentiment at four-year high as Trump seeks trade deals
[CHICAGO] American farmer sentiment jumped to a four-year high, with growers betting on rising crop exports as the Trump administration pushes for more trade deals from Vietnam to Italy. Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins said during a visit to Rome on Tuesday (Jun 3) that she is working to get Europe to buy more US products including wheat and soybeans. That comes after Vietnam announced deals to buy American grain and the US reached a trade truce with China. 'We talked about getting more of our soybeans, more of our wheat, more of great products from America into Italy and of course across the EU,' Rollins said. 'It is time that we move these products and continue to work on the world stage.' US President Donald Trump has pushed an America-first agenda that has hit crop exports. Top commodities buyer China currently has no sales on the books for US corn, soybeans or wheat to be shipped next season. Still, farmers are more optimistic, according to Purdue University and CME Group's Ag Economy Barometer, which surveyed some 400 producers between May 12 to 16, just after the Trump administration announced 'substantial progress' towards a trade deal with China. The index hit a reading of 158, the highest since 2021. A 'skyrocketing' number of farmers expect increased agricultural exports over the next five years, according to the survey. However, only 28 per cent strongly agree that 'free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries' – down from 49 per cent of farmers who agreed with the statement when it was first posed back in November 2020. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The results 'provide additional evidence that producers' views on trade have shifted', according to the barometer. Rollins is schedule to travel to several more countries, including Japan, Brazil, India and Ivory Coast over the next few months. Her agency is also leading a mission to Peru next week in efforts increase exports and address an over US$3 billion trade deficit with the South American country. Rollins touted the US' 'massive' trade deal with the UK that included a quota for American beef and the removal of tariffs on 1.4 billion litres of ethanol. 'We are just at the beginning of these renegotiations,' Rollins said. 'I know we are making progress on China.' BLOOMBERG
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Farmers Press Trump for Biofuels Boost to Counter Tariff Losses
(Bloomberg) -- After losing their biggest export market due to Donald Trump's trade wars, US farmers are now counting on the president's support for biofuels to prevent their next crop from piling up in storage. NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months NY Wins Order Against US Funding Freeze in Congestion Fight NY Congestion Pricing Is Likely to Stay Until Year End During Court Case Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The administration is set to soon unveil a plan for how much crop-based biofuels will be blended into fossil fuels starting next year. A higher mandate, still opposed by some in the oil industry, would create a much needed outlet for crops after tariffs hit China — the top commodities buyer simply has no orders for corn, soybeans or wheat from the next harvest on its books, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 'If we don't get this done, we'll end up with a surplus of soybeans,' Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer who is also president of the American Soybean Association, said of the upcoming biofuels mandate. 'I can store one good crop, I can't store multiple years.' Trump instigated a $28 billion bailout for farmers hurt by the economic standoff with Beijing during his first term. While his administration is considering similar plans again, so far he has only pledged to find domestic markets to compensate for lost sales abroad. Boosting demand at home is a key priority for growers, industry groups and some of the top agricultural commodity traders. That's because overseas sales of soybeans from the next crop are currently running 79% below the average of the past five years, USDA data showed. Corn sales are 49% lower. The US farm economy was already struggling before Trump's trade disputes. Bumper crops globally boosted supplies and sent a Bloomberg gauge of grain prices tumbling more than 40% since a 2022 peak. For Trump and the Republican party, reinforcing the farmer vote ahead of next year's midterm elections will be key. American growers have been a loyal constituency, but some cracks in that support have started to emerge. An AgWeb poll of almost 3,000 farmers earlier this year revealed that 54% were against Trump's use of tariffs as a negotiating strategy. A group of growers from Maryland, Massachusetts, and Mississippi also sued the administration after the USDA canceled grants under a program to install solar panels. The April Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer found that 56% of respondents expect tariffs to have a negative or very negative impact on farm income this year. Still, 70% said the policy will strengthen the US agricultural economy in the long-term. Domestic Demand 'If we're going to get behind this America First policy, let's make sure that we have a great domestic policy strategy,' said Lucas Lentsch, a North Dakota farmer who heads the United Soybean Board. 'Let's make sure we've got good demand here at home.' Creating more markets at home is easier said than done. The US cattle herd is already at the lowest since the 1950s, curbing demand for crops in feed rations. That's leaving farmers reliant on the so-called renewable volume obligation, or RVOs — a rule that's been controversial since being enshrined into law two decades ago to safeguard energy security. Farmers benefit from a higher biofuels mandate, but oil refiners have historically opposed it. Some of that has since changed as Big Oil invested in biofuels in recent years as part of their decarbonization efforts. 'We need a robust RVO to keep US soybeans a profitable business to be in,' said Greg Anderson, who grows the oilseed in Nebraska. Biofuel Mandates Agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., Bunge Global SA and Cargill Inc., as well as trade groups including the Clean Fuels Alliance America want the Environmental Protection Agency to set the RVO at no less than 5.25 billion gallons for biomass-based diesel starting next year, up 60% from 2025 levels. Farm lobby groups and US Midwestern governors also want a mandate for US ethanol of at least the 15 billion gallons currently in place. The American Petroleum Institute is also backing the requests. 'We're certainly doing our job to push administration to help us and help the industry,' Christopher Cuddy, ADM's president of carbohydrate solutions, said at a BMO conference in New York this month. 'The most encouraging piece for me is the fact that we're aligned with the Petroleum Institute, which at least in my time has never happened.' Still, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represents some refiners, is against it. The group argues the US isn't selling enough gasoline to absorb so much ethanol and that there's uncertainty over the amount of feedstock available to produce more renewable diesel and other biomass-based biofuels. The biofuels industry disagrees. Randall Stuewe, chief executive officer of Darling Ingredients Inc., said the previous quotas set under former President Joe Biden were far too low. The company's Diamond Green Diesel venture with Valero Energy Corp. is a top producer of renewable fuels. That led to a number of factory closures. Biodiesel plants in the US produced at just 51% of capacity in the year through April, while facilities that make renewable diesel — a fuel that's chemically identical to its fossil fuel peer — ran at a rate of 72%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence's Project Tracker. 'We used to have more demand than supply, it's now reversed,' said Peter Zonneveld, US president for biofuels producer Neste Oyj. 'Some companies are reducing run rates or shelving their investment plans for renewable fuels,' which will make it harder to curb emissions from heavy-duty industries, he said. 'It's resulting in difficulties for the ag industry too because farmers can't get rid of their soybeans,' Zonneveld said. In a statement to Bloomberg, the EPA said it has already sent its biofuel-blending proposal to the White House and will make it available for public comment once the proposal is signed. The US biofuels program 'supports President Trump's broader economic vision of strengthening American energy independence, growing domestic agricultural markets, and fighting back against unfair trade practices,' the agency said. A higher RVO is a chance to get domestic biofuels back up to normalized run rates of around 80%, said Brett Gibbs, a renewable energy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who estimates the mandate will need to be at least 3.9 billion gallons to bring some facilities back online. Trade Uncertainty It's unclear how the EPA will balance the concerns of some refiners and the agriculture industry. And even as the president announced a truce with China, lowering tariffs for 90 days, uncertainty remains. Sales of next season's crops to Mexico and Japan, the second and third-largest soybean buyers, are lagging well behind historical levels for this time of year. And China continues to snap up supplies from rival Brazil. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has openly hinted at a bailout, and nearly two thirds of farmers in the March Purdue/CME barometer said aid was either likely or very likely. Still, many growers say they want to sell their crops instead of receiving aid. 'As a farmer, I'd rather receive it from the market,' said Philip Good, a Mississippi farmer who's the chair of the United Soybean Board. 'We go back to the domestic markets, and developing domestic uses.' --With assistance from Isis Almeida, Michael Hirtzer and Philip Tabuas. 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