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Miami Herald
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Are Murder Rates Plummeting Under Donald Trump? What We Know
Homicide rates in the United States have dropped by an average of 20 percent since 2024, with record-low numbers of murders being recorded across the country, according to a crime data analyst. Co-Founder of AH Datalytics, Jeff Asher, found that as of early May 2025, murders have fallen by 31.6 percent in Baltimore, 34.5 percent in St. Louis, 36.8 percent in Cleveland, 63 percent in Denver, 30.6 percent in New Orleans, 26.8 percent in New York, and 23.7 percent in Chicago. The White House is taking credit for this fall. However, this reduction in homicides is part of a larger trend. In June 2024, homicide rates were down nearly 20 percent from 2023, and in 2023, homicide rates dropped by 13 percent from 2022. Asher told Newsweek: "I think that it would be hard to give credit towards administration action, given that it really just a continuation of trends [and continuing on] momentum from things that were happening before." Homicide rates skyrocketed during the pandemic, and are now falling to lower than pre-pandemic levels, signaling a positive move away from the lingering impacts of COVID-19 on American society. In 2020, during President Donald Trump's first term, the U.S. saw the fastest spike in murders in recorded history, with cities seeing an average rise in homicides of 30 percent, per the Brookings Institution. More than 24,000 Americans died by homicide in the U.S. in 2020. These numbers remained high in 2021 and 2022. Data analysis by the Brookings Institution found that homicide spikes occurred alongside spikes in unemployment in low-income areas, pointing to how a significant rise in people out of work could lead to higher crime rates. Since then, homicide rates have been falling year on year. If rates continue to fall this year, then 2025 could see the lowest murder rate ever recorded in the U.S. As of mid-2025, the lowest recorded murder rate was in 2014. In a post to Bluesky, Asher said: "It's still not clear how much it'll hold up for the rest of the year, but the drop in murder so far in 2025 is remarkable." Asher told Newsweek that federal funding of community resources and construction can lead to a reduction in crime rates. In general, he is skeptical of the impact that any federal government can have on murder rates. He added that, given the newness of the Trump administration to office, it is difficult to determine what impact it may have had on current homicide rates. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Daily Signal: "American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law." Jeff Asher told Newsweek: "I think it's generally beyond the scope of any piece of legislation or any piece of federal action that tends to be a major driver [in homicide rates]." If homicide rates continue to fall, 2025 could see the lowest murder rate in recorded history. Related Articles Trump's Second-Term Agenda Faces Early Test In New Jersey PrimariesDonald Trump Speaks About Elon Musk's Drug UseLA's Only Elected Republican Reacts to National Guard Troops, ICE RaidsCalifornia Republican: Gavin Newsom Should 'Absolutely Not' Be Arrested 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
New York Post
03-06-2025
- Business
- New York Post
White House celebrates plummeting murder rates as levels dip below pre-COVID numbers
WASHINGTON — Nationwide murder rates are on course to plummet for the third year in a row, with one prominent analyst saying that 2025 could see the lowest number of per capita killings on record. 'Since President Trump took office, murder rates have plummeted across the entire United States,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement on Tuesday. 'American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law.' Advertisement According to the FBI, 2014 saw the lowest murder rate dating back to 1960 — with 4.46 killings per 100,000 Americans. In 2023, the most recent year for which FBI statistics are available, the murder rate dropped to 5.75 per 100,000 from a recent high of 6.83 per 100,000 in 2020, a year that saw the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as widespread racial unrest. In 2024, according to the Real-Time Crime Index — a database maintained by AH Datalytics which compiles reports from more than 400 local agencies — the homicide rate dipped again, to 4.97 per 100,000, below the official FBI rate in both 2018 (5.15) and 2019 (5.17). Advertisement In the first three months of this year, the real time index shows, the number of murders has dropped by a further 21.6% from the same period in 2024. '[I]t's fairly clear that a decline in the direction we're currently seeing would safely give 2025 the title of lowest US murder rate ever recorded,' independent analyst Jeff Asher wrote in a May 12 Substack post. 5 Line graph from AH Datalytics showing reported murders nationwide from 2018-2025. Real-Time Crime Index 5 White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., the United States, on May 29, 2025. Xinhua/Shutterstock Advertisement Trump took office vowing to crack down on crime — especially crime committed by illegal migrants — and celebrate law enforcement officials for putting wrongdoers behind bars. In April, officials lined the White House lawn with 100 mugshots of deported illegal aliens, along with lists of the crimes they were accused of committing. 'Good policy fosters good outcomes,' FBI spokesperson Ben Williamson said Tuesday. 'Under this administration's leadership, our federal law enforcement teams are receiving the tools and support they need to crush violent crime and keep the American people safe, and that's exactly what they're doing. We have much more to do, but let good cops be cops, and the results will follow.' The nationwide decline is being reflected in some of America's largest cities. Advertisement In New York, year-to-date murder rates have dropped 28.2%. The local stats show the city's 112 murders in the first five months of this year reflect a 34.1% drop from the same point in 2023, a 41.4% dip from 2010 — and an eye-popping 85.7% drop from this point in 1993. 5 Trump has stressed that the administration will be tough on crime. Andrew Leyden/NurPhoto/Shutterstock 5 Police at the scene where two men were shot inside the Canal Street NQRW subway station at Broadway in New York, NY around 1 a.m. on January 28, 2023. Christopher Sadowski 5 A woman and a man were found shot to death near or inside 1347 Jefferson Avenue in Bushwick around 7:45 AM on February 11, 2025. Gregory P. Mango Philadelphia, which consistently ranks as among the deadliest cities in America, reported a 14.7% dip in year-to-date murder numbers. The pattern is repeating in Chicago (23% decline year-to-date), Baltimore (24%) and New Orleans (25%).
