Latest news with #2030
Forbes
2 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
The Unstoppable Growth Of Generative AI (AI Outlook Part 1)
The digital creation of an image using Stable Diffusion. When Tirias Research first forecasted global generative AI demand in 2023, we predicted token output would reach an aggressive 20 trillion tokens, such as a letter, word, or punctuation, by the end of 2024. That estimate was soon overwhelmed, as actual usage surged to a staggering 667 trillion tokens. The latest forecast now expects demand to grow 115x by 2030. Disclosure: My company, Tirias Research, has consulted for IBM, Nvidia, and other companies mentioned in this article. Growth drivers The growth in generative AI usage was more explosive than even the most aggressive forecasts could anticipate. Then, a new demand surge began in September 2024 with the release of ChatGPT-o1, the first widely deployed "reasoning" model. Unlike previous generations, it didn't just answer questions, it reasoned through them, generating more thoughtful, logical, and nuanced responses. Reasoning required far more behind-the-scenes "reasoning tokens" per session, resulting in a drastic increase in token generation. In addition, user engagement skyrocketed. By the end of 2024, the time spent generating content via generative and reasoning AI models had grown by more than 22x compared to the previous year. Overview of conditional computing and model sparsity There was also an unprecedented and accelerating rate of innovation. From the introduction of transformers in 2017 to ChatGPT-1 in 2022 and reasoning models in 2024, the innovation timeline continues to accelerate. Advanced model architectures, such as mixture-of-experts (MoE), enable more efficient reasoning while keeping active parameter use low. Open-source models, such as Meta's Llama series, challenge closed-source dominance by offering lighter, faster alternatives that run locally on laptops and smartphones. And optimizations operational efficiencies, such as sparse attention and conditional computing, are resulting in more efficient models like DeepSeek R1 (introduced in 2025), which originally used only 37 billion active parameters per token compared to Llama's 405 billion or over 1 trillion in some closed models. Token demand by the numbers Tirias Research forecasts continued growth in the number of users, visit frequency, time spent, and AI-generated content. Additionally, with agentic APIs rolling out in 2025, AI agents will start autonomously chaining AI models together, forming thoughts, executing tasks, and collaborating with other services. Human prompting will no longer be the sole driver of AI activity once autonomous agents begin to generate usage on their own. As a result, the annual rate of token generation is expected to skyrocket from 677 trillion in 2024 to 2,092 trillion by the end of 2025 and 77,000 trillion (77 quadrillion) by the end of 2030. Generative AI forecast 2024-2030 Simon Solotko, Senior Analyst at Tirias Research, explains: "The AI ecosystem is under unprecedented pressure. Multimodal capability, user demand, and agentic and multimedia workflows are advancing so quickly that even efficiency gains in compute hardware and software won't be enough to offset the surge in demand." A 2028 snapshot of the forecast demonstrates that the use of AI assistants and agents is likely to be concentrated among a small number of providers. However, on the infrastructure side, AI models accessed via APIs are anticipated to drive a wide range of business and consumer applications by enabling AI capabilities for customer-facing service providers. 2028 forecast estimates of service providers token share and the token production infrastructure The industry may consolidate into a natural monopoly similar to Google's dominance in Internet searches. Being the first to market with ChatGPT and wide brand recognition, OpenAI currently dominates the AI market for AI models and token generation. Whether OpenAI retains its lead remains uncertain. Future Trends Larger models will continue to grow in size and complexity, outpacing hardware improvements. The largest models already exceed the memory of any single accelerator, requiring clusters of GPUs and entire racks to process tasks. However, innovations in distillation and efficiency will aid in scaling down to smaller, more targeted models. The introduction of DeepSeek represented a significant leap in model efficiency, resetting the performance baseline. AI Agents will become pervasive. Industry leaders, such as Nvidia's Jensen Huang and IBM's Arvind Krishna, foresee every employee working with multiple AI agents. Some agents will live in machines, others in virtual spaces, and still others in physical robots. AI agents will also begin to collaborate. AI competition will increase. As models mature, differentiation is no longer just about size or speed; it encompasses a broader range of factors. Services are integrating AI models into workflows, APIs, and interactive applications, pushing toward end-to-end task automation and entertainment. At the same time, cost pressures are forcing every player to adopt cutting-edge techniques for faster training, improved inference, and lower computational cost. This competition goes beyond the enterprise; AI is now shaping geopolitics as countries race to innovate. In addition, AI will continue to evolve. By the end of the decade, AI-generated images and video could overtake text as the primary source of AI-generated content and driver of future compute demand. Much of this content may be created on edge devices. Media content generation, combined with autonomous AI agents and machines, will usher in the next wave of AI. Final Thoughts Unlike past technology adoption curves, generative AI doesn't appear to be slowing. Rapid improvements in both capability and efficiency are accelerating demand. As agentic AI expands beyond human usage, the number of "users" of generative AI will multiply exponentially. I will discuss the rising AI demand for images, video, autonomous agents, and autonomous machines, as well as the global infrastructure requirement and total cost of operation (TCO) of generative AI in future articles.
Globe and Mail
6 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 5 Years?
I don't know for sure. That's the answer to many questions I'm asked. It's definitely the answer to where Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) stock will be in five years. However, I think I have a pretty good overall take on where Amazon stock will be in 2030. If I'm right, the outlook looks highly encouraging for Amazon shareholders. Up, up, and away I'll be quite surprised if Amazon's share price isn't significantly higher five years from now. Are we talking about a market cap of $3 trillion? $4 trillion? Even $5 trillion? Maybe, maybe, and maybe. Going back to Amazon's initial public offering in May 1997, there have only been two five-year periods during which the stock didn't deliver strong gains. Both occurred during the dot-com bubble burst in the early 21st century. In most of the other five-year periods in Amazon's history, its share price at least doubled and often skyrocketed threefold or more. As the mutual fund disclosures say, "Past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future results." That's true with Amazon (and any other stock, for that matter). In some ways, it gets increasingly difficult for companies like Amazon to extend their successful track records. Delivering robust growth is harder when your market cap is $2.3 trillion than when it's $100 billion. However, I'm reasonably confident predicting that Amazon will be bigger five years from now. Why? The same culture that was largely responsible for the company's success over the last nearly three decades is still in place today. Amazon's growth drivers I'll go beyond culture as a reason Amazon should grow significantly, though. There are five specific reasons I think Amazon stock will perform well over the next five years. First, I suspect we've only seen the tip of the iceberg of how artificial intelligence (AI) will transform the world. I expect the second half of this decade will be filled with one AI advance after another. Amazon will probably be one of the companies achieving those advances. And it will almost certainly be a big beneficiary of AI progress, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) ranking as the world's largest cloud services provider. Second, there's more room for Amazon to grow in its core e-commerce business than meets the eye. Sure, e-commerce is no longer new -- and Amazon is already the 800-pound gorilla in the market. However, CEO Andy Jassy hit the nail on the head in Amazon's October 2024 quarterly update when he pointed out that his company owned only around 1% of the global retail market. I think Jassy was also correct that a lot more retail will be done online in the next 10 to 20 years than is done now. Third, Amazon is steadily becoming an advertising behemoth. Advertising services revenue soared 19% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, the fastest growth rate of any of Amazon's businesses (including AWS). Fourth, Amazon hasn't stopped looking for new markets to conquer. As a case in point, the company recently launched its first Project Kuiper satellites and plans to start offering satellite internet service to customers later this year. Fifth, Amazon's earnings should grow faster than its revenue (and I expect strong revenue growth). Management has been laser-focused on improving profitability, and those efforts are paying off. I think this trend will continue. As earnings go, so goes a stock price over the long run. A shaky prediction I'd hate to disappoint anyone who was hoping for a prediction about what Amazon's share price and market cap would be five years from now. Here it is: I predict Amazon's share price and market cap will roughly double by 2030 to around $430 (assuming no stock splits) and over $4.5 trillion, respectively. Keep in mind that this is a shaky prediction. The economy could falter. Other companies could outinnovate Amazon. A host of other wild cards could get in the way of my optimistic outlook becoming reality. As I said at the outset, I don't know for sure. No one does. One thing I do know for sure, though, is that I wouldn't bet against Amazon. Should you invest $1,000 in Amazon right now? Before you buy stock in Amazon, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Amazon wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $659,171!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $891,722!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is995% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to172%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025 John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Keith Speights has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Bloomberg
12 hours ago
- Automotive
- Bloomberg
Foreign Automakers' Share in China Is Only Set to Dwindle
The picture for foreign automakers in China doesn't get any rosier with new research from consultant AlixPartners showing local brands' dominance will climb to as high as 76% by 2030 as the market share of Japanese, European and US companies dwindles. And despite persistent competitive pressures, the nation's aggressive car price war is expected to evolve, rather than abate.
Yahoo
19 hours ago
- Automotive
- Yahoo
FleetCheck calls for UK to match EU hydrogen station targets
FleetCheck is urging the UK Government to align with European Union (EU) targets to establish a hydrogen filling station nearly every 200km on major roads by 2030. According to the fleet software specialist, this aims to maximise zero-emission fuel options for vehicle operators, addressing infrastructure gaps that hinder hydrogen adoption. FleetCheck CEO Peter Golding highlighted the issue at a recent hydrogen summit, noting BMW's reluctance to introduce its new fuel cell model to the UK due to inadequate infrastructure. He said: 'We are in a situation where an almost complete absence of infrastructure means we are in danger of being left behind when it comes to hydrogen, even though there seems to be general agreement among fleets that it has a definite role to play in the future.' Golding explained that Hydrogen is seen as a promising option for commercial vehicle operators, where battery electric vehicle adoption faces challenges related to range and payload. Electric van adoption has been slower than anticipated, with operational issues persisting for some fleets. Vauxhall's new hydrogen van, offering a range of approximately 400km and five-minute refuelling, presents a viable zero-emission alternative. However, the lack of refuelling stations limits its practicality unless fleets can afford to bunker fuel. Golding emphasised the need for a balanced government approach promoting diverse zero-emission fuel options. He stated: 'It seems obvious to operators that some fuel choices are more suitable for certain applications, but the UK Government approach appears to be almost entirely centred on battery electric vehicles, simply because they are available here and now. Following recent amendments to the ZEV Mandate, which grant the motor industry additional flexibility, the hydrogen sector stands to gain, potentially attracting investment in infrastructure development. Golding concluded: 'UK fleets should be calling for this to happen." "FleetCheck calls for UK to match EU hydrogen station targets" was originally created and published by Motor Finance Online, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Microsoft Inks Record Carbon Removal Deals as Emissions Rise
Five years ago, Microsoft Corp. set a goal of becoming carbon negative by 2030 and removing all its historic emissions from the atmosphere by 2050. But the company's artificial intelligence investments have made meeting those targets harder —by a lot. Today, Microsoft's total planet-warming impact is 23% higher than it was in 2020 in part because of its vast expansion of emissions-intensive data centers, according to its 2025 sustainability report. Despite its actions, Microsoft says slashing carbon remains a priority. Bloomberg Businessweek spoke with Brian Marrs, the company's senior director of energy and carbon removal, about how the tech giant plans to meet its climate commitments. Like many things involving AI or climate goals, the answer isn't entirely clear. 'It is important to recognize we're at the very beginning of generative AI and what it will look like,' Marrs says. 'Servers and data centers will evolve and do more with less.' The following conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
