Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to cross the coast. How does it compare to past storms?
As ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred looks likely to cross the coast, authorities remain concerned about heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.
It is expected to make landfall in Queensland on Saturday as a tropical low.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, over the years, at least 20 cyclones have approached within 300km of south-east Queensland and northern NSW.
Only a few have made landfall, but history shows that cyclones, and even ex-cyclones, have the potential to wreak havoc in this corner of the country.
Dr Stephen Turton, an adjunct professor at Central Queensland University who has studied tropical cyclones for more than 30 years, said events in 1954 and 1974 caused extensive damage, in large part because of extensive rainfall and flooding.
Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email
Griffith University environmental historian, Dr Margaret Cook, said cyclones and tropical lows could cause 'cascading disasters', leading to flooding and other impacts, such as health problems and electricity outages.
In the aftermath of such storms, governments have tried to learn and better prepare for the future.
Here's what has happened in the past – and how Alfred compares.
An unnamed cyclone that crossed the coast at Coolangatta on 20 February 1954 brought such devastation it was dubbed 'the Great Gold Coast Cyclone'.
That was before the Bureau of Meteorology instituted its cyclone naming policy. It was also before the use of satellites, Turton said, which made the event difficult to confirm as a 'true tropical cyclone'. Regardless, it caused a lot of damage.
At least 26 people died and the cyclone caused widespread flooding and structural damage from Bundaberg to Grafton.
Springbrook, about an hour's drive inland from Coolangatta, recorded 900mm of rain in the 24-hours before the cyclone hit land, according to an account in the journal Climate Dynamics.
Boats were reported in treetops at Beachmere, as the cyclone crossed the coast, bringing storm surges of 6.4 metres to Moreton Bay. About 200 metres of the Byron Bay jetty was swept away, taking with it the town's entire fishing fleet.
One of the worst hit areas was near Cudgen, a small coastal town in New South Wales, where houses were 'blown apart and trees more than 1 metre in diameter were twisted out of the ground'.
Flooding triggered by the cyclone swept across the northern rivers region, particularly affecting Lismore, Casino, Kyogle and Murwillumbah.
The Courier Mail reported the first clear message from Lismore just after 5pm, after extreme rainfall caused record flood levels of 12.11 metres.
'It has been a night of horror. We need help,' said a message broadcast on radio station 2LM. 'More than 2,000 people are homeless. More than 1,000 are sheltering on high ground. We need 1,000 blankets tonight.' From Kyogle, later revealed as a 'scene of devastation', there was no word.
Turton said while ex-tropical cyclone Alfred would bring heavy rainfall to similar areas, the human context today was totally different. 'The Gold Coast in 1954 was nothing like it is today,' he said, adding that back then the area was made up mostly of smaller towns populated with beach shacks.
Cook, who specialises in climate-related disasters, said Dinah, a category three tropical cyclone which remained off the coast (making landfall at K'gari and then heading back out to sea) still did significant damage to the Gold Coast, which was by then starting to resemble the Surfers Paradise of today.
Storm surges almost completely washed away the sand on the beaches. Waves crashed over the embankments and undermined the esplanade, causing parts to collapse, she said. Some buildings toppled into the sea.
'It was a really big problem because they were worried about the tourism industry,' she said. 'The beaches were off limits for a long time because there was just no sand.'
Houses 'were unroofed' at Bundaberg, Maryborough and along the Sunshine and Gold Coasts; the sea wall at Nudgee was destroyed, and homes were flooded with 0.66 metres of seawater. Data from the Insurance Council of Australia shows insurance losses were equivalent to $4.68bn.
'Storm surges also affected the Gold Coast and water lapped the decking of the Jubilee Bridge, which is about 1.5 metres above highest astronomical tide.'
Cook said a series of cyclones hit a similar strip of coastline in 1974, beginning with Wanda, a category one cyclone that caused the 'second biggest recorded floods since colonisation'.
The ground was already wet and saturated when Wanda arrived on 24 January, crossing the coast at Maryborough, about 250km north of Brisbane. More than 500mm of rainfall fell on Brisbane within 24-hours, triggering the city's worst floods since 1893.
Sixteen people were killed in Brisbane and Ipswich. Thousands of homes were inundated; 56 in Brisbane were completely destroyed, and 41 were washed away in Ipswich, according to the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience.
Tom Mortlock, head of climate analytics for the Asia-Pacific at financial services group Aon and an adjunct fellow in the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW, said Alfred was a reminder that tropical cyclones had the potential to track this far south, as Dinah had done.
He said, Wanda, which followed a similar path to Alfred, was a good benchmark for what could occur, he said.
'The difference then was that there wasn't as much infrastructure and people as there are nowadays,' Mortlock said. The full impact and costs associated with Alfred won't be known for some time, but he expects it could be a 'multi-billion dollar event in terms of insured losses'.
Ex-tropical cyclone Zoe followed just six weeks after Cyclone Wanda, crossing the coast at Coolangatta on 12 March 1974, then curving back out to sea.
Wind damage from Zoe was limited, but flooding was extensive, and caused hundreds of evacuations in northern NSW, according to the bureau. It also caused landslides and severe erosion of Gold Coast beaches.
The big legacy of the 1974 floods was the formation of Queensland's State Emergency Service, Cook said, replacing what had previously been, something more akin to a 'Dad's army'.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Guardian
2 days ago
- The Guardian
Burst of warm weather predicted for Australia's east before cold front brings wet and windy conditions in week ahead
Australia's eastern states will get a burst of warmer weather over the next few days, ahead of an approaching cold front and northerly winds that will bring wet and wintry weather across the southern parts of the country. After a cold start on Saturday, which saw a number of locations through inland New South Wales experience their coldest June morning in years, temperatures in the south-eastern states will start to warm on Sunday. 'We've got a burst of warmer conditions that are forecast,' said Sarah Scully, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology. 'We're forecasting 22C for Adelaide tomorrow, which is 7C above the June average. That warmer air will shift in eastwards, reaching Melbourne on Monday [which is] forecasting 19C and Sydney for Monday and Tuesday, forecasting 21C for both of those days.' Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email But this warm reprieve will be followed by a cold front and northerly winds pushing across the country, reaching South Australia on Monday afternoon and crossing Victoria on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to bring with it the potential for showers, storms and winds, with moderate rainfall expected as the front pushes up the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range of eastern Victoria and NSW. Weather warnings may come into effect due to winds in the week ahead. 'There is another system that's [forecast to move] through on Wednesday that will reinvigorate the winds, with the wind warning potentially extending into the NSW ranges and even parts of the Illawarra and the Sydney district as well,' Scully said. 'The heaviest rainfall totals will be about the eastern ranges of Victoria and the south-east ranges of New South Wales … and the exposed coasts may also see some moderate rainfall totals. 'That includes the coastal parts of south-east South Australia, and also Western Victoria as well as eastern and western Tasmania.' Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion Drought-affected parts of south-east South Australia and western Victoria should receive some rainfall, but the moderate rainfall totals are likely to be confined to coastal locations, Scully said. In a boost to an already stellar ski season opening, snowfall is expected on the eastern ranges in Victoria and the snowfields of NSW beginning on Tuesday, with the potential to receive between 30cm to 60cm of snow by the end of the cold front. Multiple weather warnings are in place for Western Australia. A strong cold front is currently crossing the state, bringing scattered showers, rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds to the southern half of WA. 'There is a severe weather warning current for the south-west coast and southern coast for damaging winds,' Scully said. 'So that really includes places like Margaret River all the way around, including Esperance up towards Israelite Bay.'
Daily Mail
4 days ago
- Daily Mail
Sydney, Melbourne weather: How cold it will get as high-pressure system strikes
A powerful high-pressure system parked over southeastern Australia has triggered a week of icy temperatures, just ahead of the year's shortest and darkest day of the year. Clear skies have spread across New South Wales and Victoria, with the system expected to keep clouds away into the weekend. While the days are sunny and mild, the nights have turned bitterly cold, leading to widespread frost and sub-zero temperatures. The Bureau of Meteorology's Jonathon How explained the system can cause cool mornings. 'We've got high pressure sitting on top of us which basically means sinking air, sinking air generally clears skies, number one,' he told Daily Mail Australia. 'Number two, it brings dry air down to the surface and that can mean cold nights.' Dry air, which contains less water vapor, traps less heat, allowing temperatures to plunge overnight. On Thursday morning, regions along the Great Dividing Range - from Victoria to Queensland - recorded temperatures below -4C. Marrangaroo, west of Lithgow in NSW, saw the coldest reading at a bone-chilling -7.7C. Frosts are forecast to continue across NSW, Victoria, Tasmania's highlands, eastern South Australia, and parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, including Roma and Alice Springs. The cold snap is expected to ease slightly over the weekend as the high-pressure system begins to move offshore. 'Overnight temperatures will gradually start to climb again and it won't be as icy,' Mr How said. Sydney's overnight lows could rise from 6C to 13C by late next week, thanks to a front bringing warmer northerly winds. The timing coincides with the winter solstice on Saturday, marking the darkest and shortest day of the year. 'You've got long nights and the longer the darkness the more that heat can leave the Earth's surface,' he said. 'And you've got less daytime to warm it up again. So we've really been approaching the coldest time of the year.' Hobart will see the least daylight of all capital cities - just nine hours and one minute. Sydney will get 9 hours and 54 minutes, while Darwin, being furthest north, will enjoy 11 hours and 24 minutes. Meanwhile, in the west, Perth braces for wet and windy weather as another cold front rolls in from the ocean, bringing rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Canberra Friday: Morning frost. Mostly sunny. Min -5C. Max 13C. Saturday: Morning frost. Sunny. Min -4C. Max 15C. Sunday: Morning frost. Mostly sunny. Min -4C. Max 14C. Sydney Friday: Mostly sunny. Min 6C. Max 17C. Saturday: Sunny. Min 7C. Max 18C. Sunday: Sunny. Min 8C. Max 19C. Brisbane Friday: Partly cloudy. Min 13C. Max 23C. Saturday: Partly cloudy. Min 14C. Max 23C. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Min 15C. Max 24C. Melbourne Friday: Sunny. Min 6C. Max 16C. Saturday: Sunny. Min 5C. Max 16C. Sunday: Sunny. Min 6C. Max 16C. Hobart Friday: Partly cloudy. Min 8C. Max 17C. Saturday: Mostly sunny. Min 7C. Max 17C. Sunday: Mostly sunny. Min 7C. Max 15C. Adelaide Friday: Sunny. Min 9C. Max 19C. Saturday: Sunny. Min 9C. Max 19C. Sunday: Shower or two. Min 10C. Max 22C. Darwin Friday: Sunny. Min 20C. Max 31C. Saturday: Mostly sunny. Min 21C. Max 31C. Sunday: Mostly sunny. Min 20C. Max 30C. Perth Friday: Rain increasing. Min 13C. Max 21C. Saturday: Showers. Min 8C. Max 17C. Sunday: Showers. Min 9C. Max 19C.
The Guardian
16-06-2025
- The Guardian
Big chill to continue across south-eastern Australia as outback towns plunge to record lows
Nippy weather was expected to continue across south-eastern Australia, after a cooler than usual start to June and record-setting cold in some outback towns. Cooler temperatures, gusty winds, showers and alpine snow were forecast for the south-east into Tuesday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Qian Zhou, with alpine snow expected in Victoria, Tasmania, and south-eastern New South Wales. Rainfall was expected for south-west Western Australia from Tuesday. But conditions were unlikely to be as chilly as last week, Zhou said, given the second week of June had reached minimum temperatures more than 2C below average across most of the country, and up to 10C below average in parts. Forecasts for the capitals on Tuesday included Canberra with a minimum of 0C and high of 12C, and Hobart with a minimum of 5C and maximum of 13C. From a minimum of 8C, Sydney would hit a sunny 18C. A top of 14 was forecast for Melbourne, with a minimum 9C. Adelaide could expect a minimum of 10C and maximum 16C. Brisbane would be cloudy with a minimum of 12C and maximum of 21C. And the bureau said there would be showers in Perth, with a minimum 10C and maximum 21C. Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton's Clear Air column as a free newsletter Central Queensland experienced a 'particularly cold day' on Thursday, with minimum temperatures up to 12C below average, Zhou said. Clear skies during the night allowed more heat to be released from the surface, along with consistent southerly winds bringing the colder air from the south. Winton airport recorded 0C on 12 June, she said, which was the lowest June temperature on record for the outback Queensland town. The town's previous coldest June temperature was 0.4C on 23 June 2019. On the same day, the station at Gayndah airport – 320km north-west of Brisbane – recorded -1.1C, eclipsing its previous record of 0C on 22 June 2004. Mount Isa minimums were sitting at 5C below average for June so far, the mining town's coolest on record, according to the bureau. Ski fields were pleased with conditions being cold enough for snow. Most received about 50 to 70cm of snowfall over the King's Birthday long weekend, according to Weatherzone. A further 10 to 15cm was expected this week by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Sign up to Clear Air Australia Adam Morton brings you incisive analysis about the politics and impact of the climate crisis after newsletter promotion 'It's been a dream start,' said Lani Banerjee, the environment manager for Vail Resorts Australia, which manages Perisher in NSW and Falls Creek and Mount Hotham in Victoria. 'We couldn't be happier with the start we've had … which kicked off with an early-season snowstorm and very cold temperatures ideal for snowmaking,' she said. So far, 65cm of natural snow had fallen at Perisher, 77cm at Hotham and 78cm at Falls Creek. 'We now have a solid base, and our guests have been having the time of their lives out on the slopes.' Mount Buller in Victoria had recorded 37cm of snow so far, with a good chance of more falling on Tuesday, a spokesperson said, before clearing conditions midweek that meant 'blue sky ski days into the weekend'. 'Mount Buller has been recording snowfall and depths consistently for over 45 years and conditions are currently tracking strongly for early winter – in our top 10 of seasons to date.' Despite the wintry and cold conditions in the south-east, the bureau's long range forecast still anticipated above average maximum and minimum temperatures for much of the country in June to September, Zhou said. 'That doesn't mean every day will be warmer than average, we can still get some cold periods.' Australia, on average, has warmed up by 1.51C since national records began in 1910.
