What Israel's Attack Means for Oil Markets
Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a further surge in oil prices. (Jon Gambrell/Associated Press)
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Associated Press
26 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Octa's oil outlook: Middle East tensions threaten global supply
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 21 June 2025 - Crude oil, which is arguably the world's most important commodity, is on everybody's mind right now. The flared up conflict in the Middle East is increasing risks of a major oil supply shock, potentially pushing the price of 'black gold' into the stratosphere and completely derailing the global economy. In this article, Octa, a global retail broker, shares its expert opinion on the unfolding situation and outlines possible scenarios for the global oil market. Octa Broker As it often happens, the market started to price in the possibility of a new conflict in the Middle East well in advance. On 11 June, oil prices rose more than 4% after reports surfaced that the U.S. was preparing to evacuate its Iraqi embassy due to heightened security concerns in the region. Two days later, Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes, pushing both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the world's two major oil benchmarks, to five-month highs as investors anticipated potential supply disruptions from an open conflict. To this day, the conflict continues without resolution and oil prices remain elevated even as there are some telltale signs that the parties may be willing to negotiate. 'This burgeoning unrest introduces an unprecedented degree of volatility, significantly amplifying the specter of a catastrophic oil supply shock', argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, adding that the conflict between Israel and Iran 'carries ominous potential to propel crude prices to unprecedented levels, thereby unleashing a cascade of detrimental effects that could, in the most dire of scenarios, cause a major global economic crisis'. Indeed, the Middle East in general and Iran in particular play a pivotal role in global energy markets. A substantial portion of the world's crude oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) is produced and exported in this region. Iran itself, despite the existing sanctions on exports, remains an important supplier of oil—notably, for China. Furthermore, a vast number of ships carrying crude oil and LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet vital chokepoint that Iran has repeatedly threatened to close. Should Iran act on this threat and block the strait, the repercussions would be quite severe, likely pushing global crude oil prices well above $100 per barrel, or even higher, due to the significant disruption of supply. Technically, if we look at a broader, long-term picture, WTI crude oil seems to be moving sideways with a minor bearish tilt. On a daily chart (see below), the price still has not escaped from the bearish parallel channel. However, due to the latest geopolitical news, the price has managed to rise above the 200-day moving average (MA) and seems poised to break above the critically important 77.60-78.00 area. 'Breaching the $80 handle should not be difficult if the current situation deteriorates sharply', says Kar Yong Ang. 'Continuing destruction of oil infrastructure in Iran, potential U.S. involvement in the war, countries' unwillingness to negotiate and, above all else, Iran's attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, all of this will have a bullish impact on prices'. Indeed, a break above 80 level, would open the way towards 83.40, 85.20, 87.30, and 90.00 area. Alternatively, in case the hostilities moderate somewhat, other countries—particularly the U.S.—refrain from directly participating in the conflict, and both Israel and Iran express willingness to negotiate, bearish sentiment will immediately kick in. 'I think WTI oil may lose as much as 5 dollars per barrel in the blink of an eye should we see some progress in nuclear negotiations between Europeans and Iranians, which are due to commence in Geneva this Friday', concludes Kar Yong Ang. In this scenario, a break below 71.50 level would allow bears to target 67.80, 64.80 and 61.70. Overall, WTI crude price is now stuck in a broad range between $70 and $80. The move above and below these two levels will essentially indicate if the situation in the region is getting worse or is getting better. The chart below shows potential bullish and bearish targets, marked in green and red, respectively. NYMEX light sweet crude oil (WTI) daily chartSource: TradingView, Octa analysis and calculations ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa
Hamilton Spectator
2 hours ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Superyacht is pulled from the seabed 10 months after sinking off Sicily
ROME (AP) — A British-flagged luxury superyacht that sank off Sicily last year, killing U.K. tech magnate Mike Lynch and six others, partially resurfaced Saturday as salvage recovery crews finalized the complex operation to bring it ashore for further investigation. The white top and blue hull of the 56-meter (184-foot) Bayesian was visible on the surface but was not clear of the sea yet in a holding area of a yellow floating crane barge. 'Pumping out of sea water will continue and it will be lunchtime, following a series of lifting and resting procedures to satisfy the salvage team, before Bayesian is fully and finally out of the water,' said David Wilson, spokesman for TMC Maritime, which is conducting the recovery operation. The Bayesian sank Aug. 19 off Porticello, near Palermo, during a violent storm as Lynch was treating friends to a cruise to celebrate his acquittal two months earlier in the U.S. on fraud charges. Lynch, his daughter and five others died. Fifteen people survived, including the captain and all crew members except the chef. Italian authorities are conducting a full criminal investigation . TMC Maritime said the vessel has been slowly raised from the seabed, 50 meters (165-feet) down, over the past three days to allow the steel lifting straps, slings and harnesses to be secured under the keel. Eight steel lifting straps are being used to support the hull upright and to form part of a steel wire lifting system that began raising the vessel out of the water Saturday. As it is lifted up, sea water is pumped out of the hull. TMC Maritime said the vessel will be held upright, out of the water, for checks and preparations for its final journey. On Sunday, it is anticipated the floating crane platform will move the Bayesian to the Sicilian port of Termini Imerese, where a special steel cradle is waiting for it. The Bayesian is missing its 72-meter (236-foot) mast, which was cut off and left on the seabed for future removal. The mast had to be detached to allow the hull to be brought to a nearly upright position that would allow the craft to be raised. British investigators said in an interim report issued last month that the yacht was knocked over by 'extreme wind' and couldn't recover. The report said the Bayesian had chosen the site where it sank as shelter from forecast thunderstorms. Wind speeds exceeded 70 knots (81 mph) at the time of the sinking and 'violently' knocked the vessel over to a 90-degree angle in under 15 seconds. Lynch, who sold Autonomy, a software maker he founded in 1996, to Hewlett-Packard for $11 billion in 2011 , had been acquitted on fraud charges in June 2024 by a federal court jury in San Francisco. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
San Francisco Chronicle
2 hours ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Superyacht is pulled from the seabed 10 months after sinking off Sicily
ROME (AP) — A British-flagged luxury superyacht that sank off Sicily last year, killing U.K. tech magnate Mike Lynch and six others, partially resurfaced Saturday as salvage recovery crews finalized the complex operation to bring it ashore for further investigation. The white top and blue hull of the 56-meter (184-foot) Bayesian was visible on the surface but was not clear of the sea yet in a holding area of a yellow floating crane barge. 'Pumping out of sea water will continue and it will be lunchtime, following a series of lifting and resting procedures to satisfy the salvage team, before Bayesian is fully and finally out of the water,' said David Wilson, spokesman for TMC Maritime, which is conducting the recovery operation. The Bayesian sank Aug. 19 off Porticello, near Palermo, during a violent storm as Lynch was treating friends to a cruise to celebrate his acquittal two months earlier in the U.S. on fraud charges. Lynch, his daughter and five others died. Fifteen people survived, including the captain and all crew members except the chef. Italian authorities are conducting a full criminal investigation. TMC Maritime said the vessel has been slowly raised from the seabed, 50 meters (165-feet) down, over the past three days to allow the steel lifting straps, slings and harnesses to be secured under the keel. Eight steel lifting straps are being used to support the hull upright and to form part of a steel wire lifting system that began raising the vessel out of the water Saturday. As it is lifted up, sea water is pumped out of the hull. TMC Maritime said the vessel will be held upright, out of the water, for checks and preparations for its final journey. On Sunday, it is anticipated the floating crane platform will move the Bayesian to the Sicilian port of Termini Imerese, where a special steel cradle is waiting for it. The Bayesian is missing its 72-meter (236-foot) mast, which was cut off and left on the seabed for future removal. The mast had to be detached to allow the hull to be brought to a nearly upright position that would allow the craft to be raised. British investigators said in an interim report issued last month that the yacht was knocked over by 'extreme wind' and couldn't recover. The report said the Bayesian had chosen the site where it sank as shelter from forecast thunderstorms. Wind speeds exceeded 70 knots (81 mph) at the time of the sinking and 'violently' knocked the vessel over to a 90-degree angle in under 15 seconds. Lynch, who sold Autonomy, a software maker he founded in 1996, to Hewlett-Packard for $11 billion in 2011, had been acquitted on fraud charges in June 2024 by a federal court jury in San Francisco.
