Phillies Reaching Crossroads, Must Balance Today And The Future
Coming into this season, the Philadelphia Phillies were pretty sanguine about their prospects for a deep run into the postseason. They were pretty much running back the same outfit that has been in the thick of playoff contention in recent years, making it to the World Series in 2022. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner would again lead the offense, while Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and an emerging Cristopher Sanchez would again front the rotation. Players such as OF Max Kepler and lefty starter Jesus Luzardo would fill notable gaps on either side of the ball. The bullpen, a longstanding club issue, would have a new face at the end of ballgames in Jordan Romano.
Depending on the week, the Phils have looked like the best team in baseball or a complete also-ran. They started off 8-3, lost 10 of their next 15 to drop to .500, then went on a 21-5 tear, and then through Monday's games skidded into a 4-10 slide that landed them at 38-28, in 2nd place in the NL East, 4 1/2 games behind the Mets.
Now fans in many locales would kill for such problems, but the Phillies truly are headed for a crossroads, facing key organizational decisions that will affect the franchise for years. Their nucleus, particularly on the position player side, has gotten old and relatively stale. They're heavily committed to the currently injured Harper, and to SS Turner in terms of dollars and years. Their other offensive star, Schwarber, is a free agent at the end of the season. C J.T. Realmuto, whose bat has stagnated but whose defense remains strong, is also a free agent at the end of the season. RF Nick Castellanos is signed through 2026, and has begun to decline a bit. All five aforementioned players are 32 or older. Their younger regulars, 3B Alec Bohm, 2B Bryson Stott and OFs Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas, haven't developed as expected at the MLB level.
Starting pitching is the club's clear strength. Wheeler is arguably the game's best starter. Sanchez isn't too far behind and is signed long-term on a team-friendly deal. Lefty Ranger Suarez has missed some time this season, but has looked great since his return. He's a free agent at the end of this season. Nola got off to a rough start this season, then hit the injured list with a sprained ankle, and just yesterday his rehab was short-circuited by a rib cage injury.
Then there's Luzardo, whose extremes in performance mirror his team's. After 11 starts, his record stood at 5-0, 2.15, with a 77/19 K/BB ratio in 67 innings. Then he gave up an unfathomable 20 earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in his next two starts, more than doubling his ERA to 4.46.
Plenty of the bullpen's warts were covered up by Jose Alvarado (4-1, 2.70, 7 SV, 25/4 K/BB in 20 IP) before he was suspended for 100 games for using a banned performance-enhancing substance. Under the terms of his suspension, he will not be allowed to pitch in the 2025 postseason. Romano moved back into the closer role since the loss of Alvarado, and has alternated awesome and awful performances - his ERA is an unsightly 7.40 to date.
Bubbling under the major league surface is an exciting minor league system that one way or the other holds the key to the Phillies' future. Do players like SS Aidan Miller, OF Justin Crawford, C Eduardo Tait, RHP Andrew Painter, RHP Mick Abel and 2B Aroon Escobar represent the Phils' future, or will they be dealt to salvage the club's present?
More likely it will be a combination of the two.
This trading deadline has unique, defining traits of its own compared to previous years. In the American League, specifically, there is a heavy imbalance, with buyers far outnumbering sellers. Even in the NL, where the likely playoff field is a bit tighter, only the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies are clear bottom-feeders. It's going to be tough - and expensive - for a club like the Phillies to meet their needs in the trade market. How might the Phils approach the deadline?
- Bullpen - This is the easiest area to identify, and the hardest one to fix. A guy like the Orioles' Felix Bautista could be available, but the price would be outlandish. In addition, the Phils' track record off adding bullpen arms has been abysmal. Relievers run hot and cold - unless you're getting an elite guy like Bautista (and even he hasn't be quite as elite this season), it might be best to stand pat or to make minor deals with minimal prospect cost.
- One More Everyday Bat - The Philly lineup has gotten stale. At this point it doesn't appear that Marsh or Rojas are ever going to hit, and they've got become redundant. Kepler is what he is - make a mistake, and he might make you pay, and that's about it. If the Phils can create a package with non-elite prospects (say, taking at least Painter and Miller off of the table, and likely one or two more), they might be able to score a non-elite, team controlled everyday OF that could add a jolt to their lineup. Marlins' OF Jesus Sanchez is such a player. He missed the beginning of the season with a strained oblique, and is just beginning to round into form. He has always hit the ball extremely hard, and while he is more of a corner outfielder than a CF, he could get the job done defensively in the middle of a much smaller outfield in Philly. I wouldn't give up any of the Phils' very best prospects named above for him, but would put an attractive package together and potentially add an MLB OF to it. Sanchez has three more years of team control including this one.
- Minor Leaguers - I wouldn't move Miller or Painter under any circumstances. Tait is nearly untouchable as well - the transition from Realmuto to him could be a seamless one. Escobar is one of this season's breakout prospects, and will be asked for often. The Phils know him better than anyone, and will know when someone is overpaying. Ditto Abel, who has looked great in early MLB opportunities after stagnating for an extended period in the upper minor leagues. The minor leaguer I think that' they're most likely to move is Crawford, whose speed is clearly ready for the majors, but whose bat might not be.
- Major Leaguers - The Phils could get really frisky and attempt to move some of their pending free agents for more established big leaguers. Moving an elite defensive catcher like Realmuto might be a bridge too far, but I'm certain that Castellanos would available in a deal that brought back a more complete outfielder. Who knows, Stott or Bohm could go in an old-fashioned 'challenge' trade that bring back a comparable player at the same position. Suarez is needed in their rotation right now, and you can never have too much starting pitching, but if Abel and Painter both emerge as reliable big leaguers and Nola comes back strong before the deadline, the lefty could be made available.
So this could go in any number of directions. Bottom line, the Phillies still intend to win in 2025, but they will shortly have to decide whether they need to deal from their future to give themselves their best chance. No doubt, team President Dave Dombrowski and GM Preston Mattingly will be trying to find that middle road where the club contends now and in the foreseeable future.
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