May American consumer confidence rebounds after five months of decline

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in February. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo
May 27 (UPI) -- The nonprofit research organization The Conference Board announced Tuesday that the confidence of American consumers in regard to current business and labor market conditions is on the rise, but notes a recession could be on the horizon.
According to a press release, the Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased in May by 12.3 points to 98, up from 85.7 in April. Its Present Situation Index, which is based on the assessment of American consumers on current business and labor market conditions, also went up 4.8 points to 135.9.
The Board's Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook of American consumers in relation to business, income and labor market conditions also rose 17.4 points to 72.8. Global Indicators at The Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said that consumer confidence "improved in May after five consecutive months of decline."
However, as per The Conference Board, when the Expectations Index stays below 80, it often signals an imminent recession.
Even so, the data indicates that consumers were more confident about potential job availability and business conditions over the next six months and had increased optimism about future income prospects.
Guichard also said that consumers' outlook on stock prices improved as the market showed a positive direction in May "with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months," an increase from 37.6% in April, "and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline," which is down from 47.2% in April.
"This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal," she added.
The reported cutoff date for the data taken in for these scales was May 19, but around half were received after the May 12 announcement by the Trump administration that it had paused tariffs on Chinese imports.
"The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards," Guichard also explained, but while Expectations Index had risen from April, "their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month."

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Chicago Tribune

33 minutes ago

• Chicago Tribune

Oil flip-flops and shares are mixed after the US strikes Iranian nuclear sites

BANGKOK — Global markets appeared to take the U.S. strike against nuclear targets in Iran in stride as investors watched Monday to see how Iran will react. The price of oil initially jumped more than 2%, fell and then regained about half that much. U.S. stock futures edged lower and share benchmarks in Europe and Asia also were mostly lower. The attacks on three Iranian sites raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran and left questions about what remains of Tehran's nuclear program. It also increased the possibility that Iran might retaliate, potentially disrupting shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which much of the world's crude oil passes. The big unknown is what Iran will do, analysts said. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, was up 1.2% at $77.91 per barrel. U.S. benchmark crude climbed 1.3% to $74.79. The future for the S&P 500 was little changed, while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%. Treasury yields were steady. In Europe, Germany's DAX lost 0.5% to 23,230.54 and the CAC 40 in Paris fell 0.6% to 7,541.25. Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.2% to 8,761.53. Overall, there was no sign of panic. 'I believe what we are thinking is or the thinking is that it is going to be a short conflict. The one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we'll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction,' said Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan. The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets. Closing off the Strait of Hormuz would be technically difficult but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without U.S. Navy escorts. As a major oil producer, Iran may be reluctant to close down the waterway, which is used to transport its own crude, mostly to China. Oil is a major revenue source for the regime. 'The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,' Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary. Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said disrupting traffic through the strait would be 'economic suicide' and would elicit a U.S. response. 'I would encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said. When asked about that at a routine briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters in Beijing that 'China is willing to strengthen communication with Iran and relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation' of the conflict. 'The Persian Gulf and its adjacent waters are important international channels for cargo and energy trade. Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community,' he said. Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co said he expects Iranian leaders to refrain from drastic measures and oil futures to ease back after the initial fears blow over. Disrupting shipping would be ' a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,' Kloza said. Writing in a report, Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed that Tehran leaders would likely hold back. 'They aren't crazy,' he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. 'The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.' Other experts weren't so sure. Countries are not always rational actors and Tehran could lash out for political or emotional reasons, said Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst who has covered oil markets for 45 years. 'If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,' Lipow said. That would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways, he said. Much of East Asia depends on oil imported through the strait. Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.4% while the Kospi in South Korea slipped 0.2%. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% lower, with gains for defense contractors, oil companies and miners helping to make up for broad losses. 'The U.S. strike on Iran certainly is very good for defense equipment,' Newman of Atris Advisory said, noting that both Japan and South Korea have sizable military manufacturing hubs. Australia's S&P/ASX fell 0.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng regained lost ground, climbing 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.7%. In currency dealings, the U.S. dollar rose to 147.82 Japanese yen from 146.66 yen. The euro fell to $1.1464 from $1.1473.

UPI

44 minutes ago

• UPI

Britain, U.S. warn Iran against Strait of Hormuz blockade

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) and Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy (L) at a meeting at NATO Headquarters in Brussels in April. File Photo by NATO/UPI | License Photo June 23 (UPI) -- Britain cautioned Iran Monday that attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz or to strike at American military facilities in the Middle East could lead to escalation, even as Israel continued its strikes on Iran. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said Monday that such actions would be a "catastrophic mistake." "It would be a huge, catastrophic mistake to fire at U.S. bases in the region at this time. We have forces in the region at this time," said Lammy in an interview with BBC Breakfast. The Iranian parliament moved Sunday to approve a measure to close the Strait in response to the American strikes on Iran over the weekend. The strait serves as a critical route for oil being shipped from Persian Gulf countries, but ultimately it will come down to whether Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decides to move forward with such a plan. Close to 30% of the world's seaborne oil shipments are moved through the strait. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also commented Sunday against Iranian interference with movement through the strait. He spoke with Fox News and called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. "I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil," said Rubio, as China is a key oil customer of Iran. "The Persian Gulf and nearby waters are important route for international trade in goods and energy. Keeping the region safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community," Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said in a press conference Monday. "China calls on the international community to step up effort to promote de-escalation of the conflict and prevent the regional turmoil from having a greater impact on global economic growth." Meanwhile, Israel Defense Forces announced Monday on social media that it "struck routes in order to obstruct access" to the Fordow nuclear enrichment site in Iran's Qom province. The IDF also proclaimed it attacked six Iranian airports "across western, central, and eastern Iran, destroying runways, underground hangars, refueling aircraft, F-14, F-5 and AH-1 aircraft." It further alleged the strikes "impaired takeoff capabilities from these airports, as well as the Iranian military's ability to operate its air force from them."

CNBC

an hour ago

• CNBC

Here's the salary Americans say they now need to earn to live comfortably

With higher prices now firmly entrenched, and President Donald Trump's tariffs fueling inflationary concerns, most Americans say they need an income boost to get by, according to a new report. Nearly half, or 45%, of all adults said they would need to make $100,000 or more a year to feel financially secure, Bankrate's financial freedom survey found. Roughly one-quarter, or 26%, said they need to make $150,000 or more. Fewer — 16% — put the bar at over $200,000. By comparison, the median household income in 2023 was a little over $80,000, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Altogether, the share of Americans who said they do not feel completely financially comfortable rose to 77% in 2025, up from 75% in 2024 and 72% in 2023, according to Bankrate's survey, which polled more than 2,200 in May. Here's a look at other stories affecting the financial advisor business. While Americans might have different definitions of what living comfortably entails, being in "a financial sweet spot," often means "you are able to cover your bills and everyday essentials but also have money left over for eating out and vacations," said Bankrate's economic analyst Sarah Foster. However, the recent period of high inflation and economic uncertainty has chipped away at most consumers' buying power, according to Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida. "One major issue is that wages have been stagnant for a large majority of the population over that time, and prices continue to rise," said McClanahan, who also is a member of CNBC's Advisor Council. "Add that to the backdrop of political instability everyone is feeling, and I think that is a perfect formula for people not feeling financially secure." Further, households are also facing surging child-care expenses, ballooning auto loans, high mortgage rates and record rents along with the resumption of student loan payments. But a deterioration of the American dream has been decades in the making, according to Bankrate's Foster. "It starts long before the pandemic," she said. "There has long been this perception that we used to be in this golden age where you could own a home, a car, and get by on a single income — that is a bygone era." A separate survey by Edelman Financial Engines from 2024 had similar findings: 58% of adults said they would need to earn $100,000 on average to not worry about everyday living expenses, and one-quarter said they would need to earn more than $200,000 to feel financially secure. In most cases, feeling financially secure is not based on how much you earn, but rather a commitment to save more than you spend and maintain a well-diversified portfolio, experts often say.