Nifty faces key resistance at 25,200 amid geopolitical tensions
Following Friday's rally, Nifty now faces a crucial test near 25,200. Analysts say a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a further rise toward 25,700–25,900, but also caution that geopolitical uncertainties may continue to inject volatility into the markets. On the downside, support at 24,500 remains crucial with stock-specific action in banks, midcaps, and select names like M&M, BEL, and CAMS offering trading opportunities.
RUCHIT JAIN
VICE PRESIDENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Geopolitical tensions have led to a consolidation phase in Indian markets over the past month. However, this appears to be a time-wise corrective phase within an uptrend, with Nifty holding above its support zone of 24,500– 24,450—a crucial near-term level. The immediate hurdle for the index lies in the 25,200–25,250 range. A breakout above this could propel the index towards 25,500–25,700. On the downside, 24,800 is the immediate support, followed by positional support at 24,450.
Trading strategies for the week:
Traders are advised to focus on stocks that have shown relative strength over the past month. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has given a breakout, signalling a bullish trend. Exchange-related stocks such as MCX, and defence names like BEL, BEML, and BDL are expected to extend their uptrend in the short term.
Agencies
Live Events
PRITESH MEHTA
EVP – INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, YES SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Despite elevated global uncertainty, inter-market signals suggest relative strength for Indian equities. Friday's 300-point rally was a welcome shift, as the market had been struggling to find a trending move. More importantly, the index managed to sustain its gains without cooling off. Our customised Top 10 Nifty index gained momentum after weeks of consolidation, indicating strength in large caps. Our breadth indicator also showed a bullish crossover, with ~58% of index constituents displaying a bullish bias. An ABC breakout, along with a double-top buy signal on the Point & Figure chart, combined with improving breadth, suggests a potential move towards the 25,700 zone.
Trading strategies for the week:
Improved breadth, renewed traction in banks and financials, and support in the Midcap 100 index around its 10-column average all point to further upside. Among sectors, our customised Capital Markets and Defence indices are bouncing from support. BEL, CAMS, and CDSL are showing multiple bullish patterns and could rally 10–14% in the coming weeks. The ratio of IT to Nifty has followed through on a bullish turtle breakout, indicating a potential comeback for select IT stocks.
ARPAN SHAH
HEAD – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, MONARCH NETWORTH CAPITAL
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty has been consolidating within the 24,500–25,200 range for past six weeks, lacking a clear directional trend. Despite absorbing geopolitical shocks, including the India-Pakistan conflict, the market has managed to hold key support levels. Friday's session ended with a strong bullish candlestick formation, indicating that a breakout above 25,200 could trigger short-covering and open upside targets of 25,600–25,900. The banking index, which has been consolidating near its all-time high, is expected to move in line with the benchmark, with upside targets of 57,200–58,000.
Trading strategies for the week:
The midcap index has formed a strong reversal at its breakout level. Traders can consider buying for upside targets of 13,400–13,600. The IT index has been gradually inching up, and offers a favourable risk-reward setup. Investors may accumulate HCL Tech, Kaynes, and R Systems at current levels. PSU bank stocks, including SBI and Bank of Baroda, have seen profit booking post the RBI rate cut and are now near support, both can be added at current prices. Defence stocks, having rallied sharply in the last 3–4 months, now present an unfavourable risk-reward and are best avoided. Among mid- and small-caps, CGCL, Praj Industries, GPIL, and Bharat Rasayan are good accumulation bets at current levels.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hindu
20 minutes ago
- The Hindu
Stock markets tumble in early trade amid worsening tensions in Middle East
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Monday (June 23, 2025) amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 705.65 points to 81,702.52 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 182.85 points to 24,929.55. The U.S. bombed three major nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — in Iran, bringing itself into the Israel-Iran conflict. Israel-Iran conflict LIVE updates "Even though the U.S. bombing of Iran's three nuclear facilities has worsened the crisis in the West Asia, the impact on the market is likely to be limited. Even though the possibility of the closure of Hormuz Strait is a threat, it is important to understand that this has always been only a threat and the Strait had never been closed," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said. From the 30-Sensex firms, Infosys, HCL Tech, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid and Eternal were the biggest laggards. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng were trading lower while Shanghai's SSE Composite index quoted marginally higher. US markets ended mostly lower on Friday. Global oil benchmark Brent crude jumped 1.69 per cent to USD 78.31 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities worth Rs 7,940.70 crore on Friday, according to exchange data. On Friday, the 30-share BSE Sensex surged 1,046.30 points or 1.29 per cent to settle at 82,408.17. The Nifty climbed 319.15 points or 1.29 per cent to 25,112.40.
Hans India
21 minutes ago
- Hans India
Weekly charts suggest positive momentum
The equities rebounded on the weekend and broke the 3-day losing streak. The Nifty gained by 393.80 points or 1.59 per cent. BSE Sensex also gained by 1.59 per cent. The broader market was weak, as the Midcap-100 and Smallcap-100 declined by 0.40 per cent, and 0.98 per cent. On the sectoral front, the Nifty Auto is the top gainer, with a 1.51 per cent increase, followed by IT with a 1.36 per cent rise. The Banknifty and FinNifty advanced by 1.36 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. On the flip side, the Nifty Pharma is down by 1.69 per cent, and Metal fell by 1.30 per cent. The Energy and FMCG declined by 0.39 per cent and 0.19 per cent, respectively. The market breadth is mostly negative. The India VIX is down by 9.33 per cent to 13.67. The FIIs bought Rs3,897.21 crores, and the DIIs bought Rs56,786.30 crores worth of equities in this month. The Nifty has formed strong bull candles on the weekly and daily time frames. Before closing near the pivot, the index oscillated around the 20 DMA. A massive spurt in volumes on Friday indicates renewed buying support. The FIIs bought Rs.7940.70 crore worth of equities on Friday, which supports the volume spurt. The Nifty is still in the consolidation range, but closing near the pivot, indicates a probable breakout. The previous week's low of 24473, which formed on a negative(Israel-Iran War beginning) news. All the recent lows are formed on a negative news flow. The market discounted the war implications. During the consolidation, all the big bull candles were followed by a series of bearish candles. If the index closes above 24222 decisively, with a volume support, it will result in a massive rally. As stated earlier, the undertone is strongly bullish. The worry is... last week's weakness in the broader market. The midcap and smallcaps underperformed, showing poor relative strength and loss of momentum. On a weekly chart, the 10-week average is in a strong uptrend. The RSI is back into the above 60 zone, which is an indication of a strong uptrend. Interestingly, this trend strength is not reflected in the Directional Movement Index. The ADX, +DMI and -DMIs are declining. The daily ADX is also declining. This is an interesting technical development to watch. The India VIX is back to the lower range of 13.67. This volatility index has an inverse relationship with the benchmark index. In the recent past, whenever the VIX declines below 13, it tends to decline from the highs. For the last two weeks, the global markets have also been weak and have failed to sustain the opening gains. The crude oil prices will influence the equity markets. The closure of the Hormuz Strait will impact the oil supplies. Keep an eye on geopolitical events and crude oil movements that can affect the equity market. For a decisive uptrend, the Bulls must close above the 24222 - 307 zone of resistance. If it sustains above this zone for a week, we will test the new high. The new target is at 26800. In any case, the index declines below the 10-week average of 24570, will be negative and will resume the downside. It is better to stay with a positive bias as long as it is in the consolidation range, as the internal strength is strong. The sector rotation is perfectly going on as the traditional defensives are in the limelight. The India Defence stocks are in focus too. As the RBI pushes liquidity in the market, the Banks and financials are also in focus. (The author is partner, Wealocity Analytics, Sebi-registered research analyst, chief mentor, Indus School of Technical Analysis, financial journalist, technical analyst and trainer)
Hans India
21 minutes ago
- Hans India
Middle East flares may weigh down markets
Pumped up by US President Trump's statement about decision of US direct involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict in next two weeks, the strong rally on Friday helped market erase previous few sessions losses to close on optimism. For the week, the BSE Sensex index added 1,289.57 points or 1.58 per cent to finish at 82,408.17, and on the NSE, the Nifty gained 393.8 points or 1.59 per cent to end at 25,112.40. Broader markets underperformed benchmark indices, the BSE Mid-cap Index was down 0.4 per cent and the BSE Small-cap index shed nearly 2 per cent. Sector wise, Nifty Private Bank index rose 1.6 per cent, Nifty Auto index added 1.5 per cent, Nifty Information Technology index rose 1.3 per cent. However, Nifty Media index shed 3 per cent and Nifty Pharma index fell 1.7 per cent, Nifty Metal and PSU Bank indices shed 1.3 per cent each. FIIs snapped four week selling with purchases of equities worth Rs 8,709.60 crore in current week. DIIs continued their buying for ninth straight week with purchases of equities worth Rs 12,635.58 crore. Domestic factors such as a decline in India's wholesale inflation and the RBI's relaxation of lending norms supported the market's upward momentum amid Middle East concerns. The rupee witnessed a sharp fall last week. The fall to 86.60 on the Indian rupee (86.59) has happened much faster than expected. Rise in crude oil prices on the back of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is weighing on the domestic currency. The US Federal Reserve meeting last week largely turned out to be a non-event for the markets. The Fed kept the rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5 per cent. It also retained its forecast for another 50-basis points rate cuts for the rest of the year. However, the central bank had revised its inflation forecast higher. The higher revision has been attributed to the uncertainty prevailing over the impacts of higher tariffs. Weekend factors like US B-2 Bombers making incursions into Iran and with Israel and Iran continuing to exchange missile strikes will cast shadow on markets when markets open in the coming week. Looking ahead, traders may brace for heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Iran has launched a retaliatory wave of missiles toward Israel, hours after U.S. airstrikes targeted its nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan; and Iran's foreign minister stated that Tehran is willing to consider diplomacy only once Israel halts its aggression. Watch carefully the developments because of its impact on international crude oil prices. IPO Corner: After a long time, the primary market is going to see some intense action in a 'energetic week' with 13 (IPOs) hitting the D-Street. The companies will be raising nearly Rs 16,000 crore during the week, with five mainboard public issues up for grabs. The positive broader picture of the equity market, despite near-term concerns led by the Middle East and tariff-driven volatility, appears to be the reason for strong primary market action. Mumbai-based real estate developer Kalpataru is slated to raise Rs 1,590 crore via IPO. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 387 to Rs 414. New Delhi-headquartered EPC company Globe Civil Projects plans to garner Rs 119 crore through IPO. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 67 to Rs 71. Industrial gases provider Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases plans to mop up Rs 852.53 crore via the public issue. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 380 to Rs 400. Electric resistance welded steel pipes and structural tubes maker Sambhv Steel Tubes plans to raise up to Rs 540 crore. However, the biggest public issue of the current year will be from HDB Financial Services with a size of Rs 12,500 crore. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 700 to Rs 740. This remains the most anticipated issue among the pack. The SME segment will also see top action with 7 IPOs opening for subscription. Reports indicate that Tata Capital is closing in on a blockbuster Rs 17,200 crore IPO, after receiving regulatory clearance for its confidential draft prospectus. Expect some shift in fund flows from both retail investors and institutions from secondary market to IPO segment. The fresh wave of equity supply via initial public offerings (IPOs) can be a key risk to Indian stock market. If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting. FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH With the broader indices Nifty and Bank Nifty locked in a tight range, derivative segment witnessed mild bouts of alternate buying and selling in stock futures. Despite ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, indices ended the week on a positive note. In the options market, prominent Call open interest for Nifty was seen at the 25,500 and 25,300 strike, while the notable Put open interest was at the 25,000 and 24,800 strike. For Bank Nifty, the prominent Call open interest was seen at the 57,000 and 56,500 strikes, whereas notable Put open interest was at the 56,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 13.51%, while Put options concluded at 14.06%. The India VIX, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 14.26%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) for the week was 1.06. Nifty is currently trading near its resistance level of 25,200. A breakout above this level could lead to a further move towards 25,500. On the downside, immediate support is placed at the psychological level of 25,000, followed by strong support at 24,800. As long as Nifty holds above 24,800, the market can be considered a buy-on-dips. Watch out for breakout attempts near resistance and potential reversal signs around the key levels. As always, manage risk with discipline and stay anchored to price confirmation. Stocks looking good are Ashok Leyland, BEL, Bharti Airtel, Indus Towers, Trent, Kaynes and Wipro. Stocks looking weak are ATGL, Bluestar, RVNL, Shree Cements, Tata Chemicals, Unominda and Voltas. (The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice- chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
