How US strikes on Iran could lead to spiral of crisis
"Attacking Iran is not a Nike commercial — Just Do It," said Middle East expert Aaron David Miller on the US striking Iran's nuclear sites. US President Donald Trump's decision to get into a war with Iran with ruthless strikes not only displays American power, but changes the dynamics in the oil-rich region. It also pushes the US into a "forever war", like it fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, which Trump vowed not to get the country into.advertisementOn Saturday (US time), American forces carried out coordinated airstrikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites in Iran.The US used six B-2 bombers to drop a dozen bunker-buster bombs on the nuclear site in the Fordow, CNN reported, quoting a US official. "A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow," Trump said on Truth Social.
The strikes, the first direct US military involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, will lead to a major escalation.However, like Aaron David Miller said, it isn't just a Nike ad."The most important point of today and every day. Attacking Iran is not a Nike commercial — Just Do It. When America puts its forces in harm's way, it's not just can we do it; but should we; what will it cost and what about day after," Miller, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment and former US State Department analyst, posted on X.advertisementWell, it could very well be a midsummers night's nightmare for the US, as well as the world.1. US ASSERTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AMID CHINA CAUTIONIran had positioned itself as a Shia counterweight to Sunni Saudi Arabia, an American ally, and created a Shia superstate. A militarily crippled Iran will tilt the balance of powers in the Middle East.Both China and Russia warned the US against military intervention in Iran after Israel attacked its nuclear facilities and top military commanders nine days ago.After Trump warned Iran of impending strikes last week, Guo Jiakun, spokesman for the Chinese foreign affairs ministry, said any use of force by the US would be seen as an infringement of Iran's sovereignty and security. Russia's foreign ministry's spokeswoman Maria Zakharova too "particularly warned" the US against military intervention, "which would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences".Though China and Russia are least likely to get directly involved in the war, they might help Iran counter the US, which has faced challenges from their covert help to its opponents in the Middle East.The strikes in Iran, in which the fighter jets flew for 37 hours, covering a distance of 11,400 kilometres, shows the US' intent.advertisementTrump has got the US into a Middle East muddle, and everyone is clear about that. What is also clear is Trump's assertion."Iran, the bully of the Mideast, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater," he said in an address from the White House.2. IRAN WEAKENED BUT MIGHT USE PROXIES TO TARGET USTrump claimed that the strikes were a success, but didn't provide any evidence.Even if its nuclear advancements have been destroyed, Iran remains a threat to the US and Israel. It has threatened to strike back, and shown that by firing a volley of missiles into Tel Aviv."The events [the US strikes] this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences," Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted on X.So, what can Iran do now?"The Iranians are seriously weakened and degraded in their military capabilities. But they have all sorts of asymmetric ways that they can respond... This is not going to end quick," Miller told Reuters.Iran could use its proxy militia, like the Lebanon-based Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels of Yemen, to hit American and Israeli interests in and around the region.advertisement3. IRAN'S DIRECT ATTACK ON US CENTRES IN MIDDLE EASTThe US has thousands of its troops in the Middle East in bases like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iran could make them the target of its retaliation.Though these bases have missile shields, just like Israel's, they might have little time to respond to waves of missiles and swarms of drones given their proximity to Iran, according to an Associated Press analysis.Even with the advantage of geographical distance and sophisticated missile shield, Israel has been unable to shoot down all the missiles from Iran.Eric Lob, assistant professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Florida International University, told Reuters that Iran's next move remained an open question. He suggested that "Iran could hit soft targets of the US and Israel inside and outside the region".If Iran kills any American in its attack, Trump and the US will be sucked into a cycle of escalation, which might not have a clear exit.Trump has already promised that."Any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater that what was witnessed tonight," Trump posted in all-caps on Truth Social after his speech.advertisement4. OIL'S NOT WELL. ALL EYES ON STRAIT OF HORMUZAny crisis in the Middle East has big repercussions for global trade and oil prices. With Iran, the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), involved, crude oil prices had risen.It isn't just Iranian oil, but the crude trade route that passes through the Strait of Hormuz along Iran's southern coast that has experts and traders worried.About 20% of globally traded crude oil and related products move through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a narrow mouth in the Persian Gulf. At its narrowest point, the Gulf of Hormuz is just 33-km wide.An Associated Press analysis said that Iran's fleet of fast-attack boats and naval mines could make the strait impassable.With the US entry into the war, Iran could launch direct attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure.This was a fear RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft expressed while speaking to Reuters last week.Though the US 5th Fleet, stationed in Bahrain, would intervene, even jitters are enough to send oil prices high, and have a bearing on economies across the world.advertisementA Reuters report from June 19 said the Brent crude futures, a measure for global oil prices, ended 3% up at $78.85 a barrel.Any potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint, could see oil prices surging to a crippling $120-$130 per barrel, according to investment banking firm JP Morgan.5. TRUMP'S LEGACY AND THREAT OF IMPEACHMENTThe US getting embroiled in the Iran-Israel war isn't just slippery for oil prices, it's a slippery slope for Trump's legacy too. American leaders have already started calling for Trump's impeachment over the unilateral decision.The man who was eyeing the Nobel Peace Prize just hours ago and had been formally nominated by its lapdog Pakistan has made the US a party to a regional war.Donald Trump's first stint saw him pull out troops from Afghanistan and broker the Abraham Accords, which would have normalised Israel's ties with Arab nations.And now, just six months into his second stint, Trump has got the US into what he branded earlier as "forever wars".Foreign wars and attempts at regime changes haven't had the desired results for most American presidents.Trump's decision to join the war, though cheered by some, comes against the wishes of many Republicans and MAGA loyalists.Already at war at home with his detention and deportations of immigrants, Trump seems to have made himself a fair game for impeachment with the war in Iran."The President's disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers. He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations. It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment," Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Congresswoman from New York, wrote on X.Trump said his proudest legacy would be that of a peacemaker and unifier but has got the US into another war. If the damages to the three nuclear sites and its nuclear programme are significant, Iran's retaliation will be furious. The world would be cautiously watching how it all unfolds.Must Watch
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