Market Focus Daily: Monday, June 16, 2025
Asian shares prove resilient today; Oil prices rose again as the conflict between Israel and Iran showed no sign of cooling; Gold gets a modest safe haven bid and it's a week packed with central bank meetings.
Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day's market movements and news from Singapore and the region.
Written by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg)
Produced and edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro
Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media
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International Business Times
3 hours ago
- International Business Times
Wall Street Shows Mixed Signals as S&P 500 Down 0.21%, Dow Gains 38 Points as Middle East Tensions Escalate
U.S. stock markets finished Friday with mixed results as traders continued to grapple with new geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and further cycles in oil and currency markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 38.47 points, or 0.1%, to end at 42,210.13. The S&P 500, on the other hand, slipped 0.21%, while the Nasdaq Composite sank more deeply by 0.49%. Investor sentiment took on a cautious tone as President Donald Trump postponed taking military action in the wake of recent flare-ups in the Israel-Iran conflict. Markets began the day on a positive note, but worries about what could unfold over the weekend contributed to choppy trades and late-session declines. Energy prices also signaled the market's unease. Brent crude dropped 2.3 percent to $77.01 a barrel, but it was still up 3.6 percent for the week. U.S. crude futures settled at $74.93, down 0.28%, but still up 2.7% for the week, despite a holiday-thinned session on Thursday. "People are holding back from major moves ahead of the weekend. There's still a lot of risk tied to how the situation unfolds," said Rick Meckler of Cherry Lane Investments. Diplomatic Moves and Geopolitical Risks: The United States forged ahead with targeted sanctions on enterprises tied to Iran's defense industry, a diplomatic strategy from the White House. But analysts warn that with Israel and Iran continuing to trade hostilities, any miscalculation would see the crisis ratchet higher and put vital oil infrastructure at risk. "There's always a chance of an unintended spark in these kinds of conflicts," said John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. European officials called on Tehran to resume negotiations over its nuclear ambitions after a high-level meeting in Geneva ended without progress. European stock markets closed slightly higher, buoyed by optimism from earlier Asian trading sessions. The MSCI World Index was down slightly by 0.01%, while gains in Hong Kong and Seoul helped balance out losses in the other Asian markets. Fed Talk Spotlights Policy The Gap: Federal Reserve officials spoke publicly for the first time since comments by the Fed's chair, Jerome H. Powell, on Wednesday, indicating that the central bank is likely to cut interest rates this year. But he cautioned that inflation, particularly from Trump's trade tariffs, is a risk. A divide among policymakers is also now visible. Governor Christopher Waller insisted to open the door to a rate cut as soon as the next meeting, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin countered that there's no rush to move. Powell, for his part, warned against putting too much stock in forecasts in such a dynamic environment. Waller's dovish take sent bond markets into motion. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries fell 2 basis points to 4.375%. Strong safe-haven demand, which has been soaring in recent weeks because of global tensions, was another factor contributing to the fall. Currency and Commodity Price Movements The dollar was stronger, reaching a three-week high against the yen. A gauge of the dollar against major currencies inched 0.03% higher on the day and 0.6% for the week. The euro was 0.3% firmer at $1.1528. Gold prices were down 0.13% at $3,365.91, set for a weekly decline despite some strength earlier in the week as a safe haven asset.
Business Times
8 hours ago
- Business Times
Trump pledge of quick China magnet flows has yet to materialise
[HONG KONG] Almost 10 days since US President Donald Trump declared a 'done' trade deal with Beijing, US companies remain largely in the dark on when they will receive crucial magnets from China, and whether Washington, in turn, will allow a host of other exports to resume. While there has been a trickle of required permits, many American firms that need Chinese minerals are still waiting on Beijing's approval for shipments, according to sources familiar with the process. China's system is improving but remains cumbersome, they said, contrary to Trump's assurances rare earths would flow 'up front' after a Jun 11 accord struck in London. The delays are holding an array of American industries hostage to the rocky US-China relationship, as some firms wait for magnets and others face restrictions son elling to China. That friction risks derailing a fragile tariff truce clinched by Washington and Beijing in Geneva last month, and triggering fresh rounds of retaliation. Interviews with multiple Western buyers, industry insiders and officials familiar with discussions revealed frustration over vague policies in both countries and lingering confusion about what level of magnet approvals from China would trigger Trump to abandon his tit-for-tat export curbs. 'Even if export approvals accelerate, there are so many unknowns about the licensing regime that it's impossible for companies to have a strong sense of certainty about future supply,' said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Research. 'At a minimum, they need to factor in a real possibility that talks could break down again, and exports will be halted.' In response to China's sluggishness on magnets, Trump last month restricted US firms from exporting chip software, jet engines and a key ingredient to make plastic to China until President Xi Jinping restores rare-earth exports. Companies subject to Washington's curbs have halted billions of US dollars in planned shipments as they wait for players in unrelated sectors to secure permits from Beijing, which could take weeks or even months to process, given the current pace. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Corporate chiefs affected by the export-control spat have sought clarity from the administration on its strategy, according to sources familiar with the matter. The Commerce Department, which administers the rules, has offered few details, they added. Oil industry executives have tried to convince Trump officials that blocking exports of ethane – a gas used to make plastics – is contrary to US national security interests, according to sources familiar with the deliberations. Business leaders have asked for export restrictions to be removed but that's been unsuccessful so far, the sources said. Energy and chemical giant INEOS Group Holdings has one tanker full of ethane waiting to go, while Enterprise Products Partners has three to four cargo ships stuck in limbo, according to a source familiar with the matter. That's particularly galling because China has adequate ethane supplies in reserve and can switch to using naphtha from the Middle East and other regions for much of their production, the sources said. Representatives from the companies did not respond to requests for comment. Industry figures have consistently told the Trump administration the ethane export restrictions are inflicting more pain on US interests than on China, according to the sources. China's Ministry of Commerce, which administers export licenses, has not responded to Bloomberg's questions on how many for rare earths have been granted since the London talks. At a regular briefing in Beijing on Thursday, spokesperson He Yadong said Beijing was 'accelerating' its process and had given the go-ahead to a 'certain number of compliant applications'. Access to rare earths is an issue 'that is going to continue to metastasise until there is resolution,' said Adam Johnson, chief executive officer of Principal Mineral, which invests in US mineral supply chains for industrial defence. 'This is just a spigot that can be turned on and off by China.' China only agreed to grant licenses, if at all, for six months, before companies need to reapply for approvals. Firms doing business in the US and China could see recurring interruptions, unless the Commerce Ministry significantly increases its pace of process applications. Adding an extra layer of jeopardy for US companies, Chinese suppliers to America's military-industrial base are unlikely to get any magnet permits. After Trump imposed sky-high tariffs in April, Beijing put samarium – a metal essential for weapons such as guided missiles, smart bombs and fighter jets – on a dual-use list that specifically prohibits its shipment for military use. Denying such permits could cause ties to further spiral if Trump believes those actions violate the agreement, the terms of which were never publicised in writing by either side. That sticking point went unresolved during roughly 20 hours of negotiations last week in the UK capital, sources familiar with the details said. Complicating the issue, companies often buy magnets from third-party suppliers, which serve both defence and auto firms, according to a person familiar with the matter. That creates a high burden to prove to Chinese authorities a shipment's final destination is a motor not a missile, the source added. Beijing still has not officially spelt out the deal's requirements, nor has Xi publicly signalled his endorsement of it – a step Trump said was necessary. 'The Geneva and London talks made solid progress towards negotiating an eventual comprehensive trade deal with China,' White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. 'The administration continues to monitor China's compliance with the agreement reached at Geneva.' China's Commerce Ministry is working to facilitate more approvals even as it asks for reams of information on how the materials will be used, according to sources familiar with the process. In some cases, companies have been asked to supply data including detailed product designs, one of the sources said. Morris Hammer, who leads the US rare-earth magnet business for South Korean steelmaker Posco Holdings, said Chinese officials have expedited shipments for some major US and European automakers since Trump announced the agreement. China's Advanced Technology & Materials said on Wednesday it had obtained permits for some magnet orders, without specifying for which destinations. The company's customers include European aerospace giant Airbus SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Around half of US suppliers to Toyota Motor, for example, have had export licenses granted, the company said – but they're still waiting for those materials to actually be delivered. It's likely some of the delays are transport-related, one of the sources said. Even with permits coming online, rare-earth materials are still scarce because overseas shipments were halted for two months starting in April, depleting inventories. Trump's agreement 'will allow for rare earths to flow out of the country for a short period of time, but it's not helping the auto industry because they are still talking shutdowns', Hammer said. 'Nobody trusts that this thaw is going to last.' For many automakers, the situation remains unpredictable, forcing some to hunt for alternatives to Chinese supplies. Two days after Trump touted a finalised trade accord in London, Ford Motor chief executive officer Jim Farley described a 'day-to-day' dynamic around rare-earths licenses – which have already forced the company to temporarily shutter one plant. General Motors has emphasised it's on firmer footing in the longer term, because it invested in domestic magnet making back in 2021. The automaker has an exclusive deal to get the products from MP Materials in Texas, with production starting later in the year. It has another deal with eVAC of Germany to get magnets from a South Carolina plant starting in 2026. In the meantime, GM and its suppliers have applied for permits to get magnets from China, a source familiar with the matter said. Scott Keogh, the CEO of Scout Motors – the upstart EV brand of Volkswagen – told Bloomberg Television his company is re-engineering brakes and drive units to reduce the need for rare earths. Scout is building a plant in South Carolina to make fully electric and hybrid SUVs as well as trucks starting in 2027. Until the rare-earth supply line is reopened to Washington's satisfaction, Trump has indicated that the US is likely to keep in place its own export restrictions. Senior US officials have suggested the curbs are about building and using leverage, rather than their official justification: national security. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the measures were used to 'annoy' China into complying with a deal US negotiators thought they'd already reached. Restrictions on sales to China of electronic design automation (EDA) software for chipmaking are emblematic of the standoff. Those EDA tools are used to design everything, from the highest-end processors for the likes of Nvidia and Apple to simple parts, such as power-regulation components. Fully limiting China's access to the best software, made by a trio of Western firms, has been a longtime priority in some Washington national security circles – and would build on years of US measures targeting China's semiconductor prowess. While some senior Trump officials specifically indicated the administration would relax some semiconductor-related curbs if Beijing relents on rare earths, EDA companies still lack details on when, and whether, their China access will be restored, said industry officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly. Even if that happens, there's a worry that heightened geopolitical risks will push Chinese customers to hunt for other suppliers or further develop domestic capabilities. 'The risk is there for the London deal to fall apart,' said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. 'Because rare earths is a very granular issue and mistakes can be made.' BLOOMBERG
AsiaOne
8 hours ago
- AsiaOne
Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defense spending, World News
WASHINGTON - Japan has cancelled a regular high-level meeting with its key ally the United States after the Trump administration demanded it spend more on defence, the Financial Times reported on Friday (June 20). Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had been expected to meet Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defence Minister Gen Nakatani in Washington on July 1 for the annual 2+2 security talks. But Tokyo scrapped the meeting after the US asked Japan to boost defence spending to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product, higher than an earlier request of 3 per cent, the newspaper said, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday that President Donald Trump's government was demanding that its Asian allies, including Japan, spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence. A US official who asked not to be identified told Reuters that Japan had "postponed" the talks in a decision made several weeks ago. The official did not cite a reason. A non-government source familiar with the issue said he had also heard Japan had pulled out of the meeting but not the reason for it doing so. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said she had no comment on the FT report when asked about it at regular briefing. The Pentagon also had no immediate comment. Japan's embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment. The nation's foreign and defence ministries and the Prime Minister's Office did not answer phone calls seeking comment outside business hours on Saturday. [[nid:715497]] The FT said the higher spending demand was made in recent weeks by Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, who has also recently upset another key US ally in the Indo-Pacific by launching a review of a project to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. In March, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that other nations do not decide Japan's defence budget after Colby, in his nomination hearing to be under secretary of defence for policy, called for Tokyo to spend more to counter China. Japan and other US allies have been engaged in difficult trade talks with the United States over President Donald Trump's worldwide tariff offensive. The FT said the decision to cancel the July 1 meeting was also related to Japan's July 20 upper house elections, expected to be a major test for Ishiba's minority coalition government. Japan's move on the 2+2 comes ahead of a meeting of the US-led Nato alliance in Europe next week, at which Trump is expected to press his demand that European allies boost their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP.
