Blue Jackets mailbag, part 2: Merzlikins' future, a possible AHL wave, offer sheets
Nobody expected the Columbus Blue Jackets to be competitive this season, so most watched them challenge for a playoff spot this spring — they were the last team to be eliminated — and counted it at a good sign that a bright future looms.
They have veteran building blocks and a cadre of young players who are already impact NHL players. Now, it's on GM Don Waddell, the coaches and players to get over the hurdle. Nobody will count next season as a success if they don't make the playoffs.
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We asked late last week for your questions, and you did not disappoint. We answered a bunch on Tuesday. We emptied the mailbag today.
The topics are meaty, too. All eyes are on the Blue Jackets' goaltending position, which has been a sore spot for the past three or four seasons. What becomes of Elvis Merzlikins? Is Jet ready for takeoff? Who's next if they need a veteran goalie?
But it didn't stop there. Enjoy these, and thanks again for taking part. (Some questions have been lightly edited for style and clarity.)
Are the Blue Jackets a goalie away from making the playoffs? Or did we overachieve last year? — Andy J.
This is a good question to get us started. There are many ways to go with this. Let me take the second part first. They were better than anybody expected, but I'm not sure they overachieved. There were some (so far) career-best years in there, sure, but nothing that feels as if it can't be replicated. Zach Werenski, Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan … that's a pretty good skill nucleus. And they're all either young or in their primes. To me, it feels like the start of something, not the pinnacle.
To the first part … they likely would have made the playoffs with even slightly better goaltending, but as we've noted many times, it's probably unfair to pin their defensive woes entirely on that position. (I do think they need to change up the net, though.) But are they guaranteed a postseason berth with better goalie play? I would think not. The Eastern Conference is probably going to be tougher next season. Each year is its own animal. Further, the Blue Jackets want to improve at more spots than in goal, because the goal isn't to just make the playoffs. It's to do something once you're there.
How realistic are buyouts? And do you know if Waddell ever did this in Carolina? — Ryan C.
I know what's been said by Waddell. But I find it hard to believe that a contract buyout actually is off the table, especially for Merzlikins. A buyout is not ideal, of course. They'd have to spread out two-thirds of his remaining salary (both years) over the next four seasons, or about $7.5 million total. The worst hit would come in 2026-27, when they'd owe him $2.8 million. But it might be the only remedy. If this is a consideration, Waddell is wise to not air that publicly. You may as well exhaust your efforts to trade him — even with salary retained — because buyouts are a last resort. I haven't even asked about a Damon Severson contract buyout, because there is no way they'd sign up to pay a player over the next 12 seasons. That's Bobby Bonilla territory.
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Merzlikins (and half of his remaining salary retained) and one of the first-round picks (No. 14 or No. 20) to Boston for Jeremy Swayman. Who says no? — Timothy N.
Boston, and quickly. It wasn't a great season for the Bruins or Swayman, and I'm not saying they won't trade him at some point. But for a mid-round pick and Merzlikins? Can't see it even being a consideration, even if the Blue Jackets eat a portion of his contract.
Jet Greaves has spent most of his time in the AHL, despite a few successful call-ups to the NHL. Seems like there's some question with the Blue Jackets about him having sustained success. What gives? — Scott K.
Broad answer: what you're seeing is a prospective NHL goaltender being developed the right way, with guidance and patience. He's spent four years in the AHL and he's only 24 years old. He's also come a long way in that time with his patience and positioning, which is what you want to see. It takes undrafted players longer to have an NHL job carved out for them. It takes 6-foot goalies a while longer to earn trust, too. He has a one-way NHL contract for 2025-26, so he's here now. He's a great story, eh?
Recognizing that Daniil Tarasov has been inconsistent, how did he become persona non grata this season? Was it strictly his play or is there more to the story? — Clem B.
Clearly he did not have the trust of Blue Jackets coach Dean Evason, and I don't think his refusal early in the season to accept a conditioning assignment in AHL Cleveland helped. Neither did Tarasov's struggles, which led them to consider sending him down for a tune-up. It's fair to question Evason's handling of the goaltenders this year. He wasn't around the previous season, obviously, but those who were watching then saw a long stretch when Tarasov played quite well. That kind of opportunity never found him this season. Not saying he would have replicated that, but there were times when it sure felt as if Merzlikins needed a rest.
What would you do to overhaul the goalie situation? — Jack H.
Excuse me, but I'd rather sit back and judge the moves of others. So … I'd either trade Merzlikins in the manner that Patrik Laine was traded last summer — best offer gets him — or I'd buy out the contract. I've always believed that there is a talented goaltender in there, but a change of scenery is needed both for the player and the club, at this point. I'd qualify Tarasov and try to get him through to AHL Cleveland at the end of training camp. If he gets claimed off waivers, that's a risk I'm willing to take. Greaves comes to camp as a lock to be at least the backup to a veteran goalie, but with a chance to make it a timeshare if his play demands it.
Now, this is where it gets tricky. Vitek Vanecek? Jake Allen? Dan Vladar? Alexandar Georgiev? Ilya Samsonov? I would ask goaltending coach Nik Backstrom to make a list of the top UFA candidates and join the marketplace on July 1. If there's not a huge difference between No. 1 through No. 5, I'd wait out the first few days to see if I could get a guy on a two- or three-year deal. That veteran and Greaves would be the 1-2 punch. Keep in mind, they also need an AHL one and two. I'd make sure (or try to) that the anticipated No. 1 in Cleveland has NHL experience.
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What will be the biggest challenge next season? The team was so bonded last season and now there will be new faces on the team. — Julieta H.
Every year is a new challenge, but this is no longer a dressing room without a culture or a foundation, so there may be more carryover in that respect than we're used to. With players such as Boone Jenner, Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan, Erik Gudbranson, Cole Sillinger and Adam Fantilli, the room has a cluster of leaders both young and old. There's a way things are done with this group. They call it a standard. New players find their place within that, which is much healthier than expecting new guys to be the ones who establish that. Last year was special, and that team really did become incredibly close, by their own admission. But the bond they established last season can only benefit them in the future, in my opinion.
How do the young forwards in the system impact offseason plans? Specifically, Luca Del Bel Belluz. Is he viewed as an NHL player next season? — Marshall S.
If Del Bel Belluz makes the same strides this summer as he made last offseason, he'll definitely give them something to think about in training camp. If his play dictates it, he'll be a Blue Jacket. But I don't think he comes to camp with a lineup spot to lose, and that may be different than it's been during previous stretches with this organization. If he comes to camp and earns a spot, he earns a spot. But he'll have to take that job from somebody else, either a player who is here now or one who will be added in the next few weeks. I would not count out Del Bel Belluz, however. I'm not sure what type of player he'll be in the NHL, but he seems destined and driven to get there and stick. He's a very interesting player to keep an eye on over the next couple of seasons. How does he shape his game to find a niche on this club?
Is Waddell known for giving young players an NHL chances, or is he more likely to trade young players for veterans? Thinking of Del Bel Belluz, Pyyhtiä, Brindley, Lindstrom, etc. — Dave E.
There's not a GM in the NHL who is opposed to young players making the roster. It's the lifeblood of a healthy organization. It's also fiscally necessary in the salary-cap era. But the word you used — 'giving' — is not going to happen. It can't be that way for a competitive NHL franchise. Lindstrom is probably at least a year away from being an NHL regular, but we might see him at the end of this coming season when Michigan State's season ends. The others you mentioned are already pros and will have to take a job to get a job. That's how it works.
There are lots of good RFAs this summer. Are you hearing any whispers of an offer sheet? — Ryan L.
Whispers, eh? No whispers, just Waddell acknowledging that it is a tool GMs can use to acquire players. The taboo around offer sheets is now officially gone, I'd say, especially with the success St. Louis had last summer. It can be an expensive way to do business. There is much to consider here, however. The Blue Jackets do not have their second-round pick in 2026. It was sent to Montreal as a sweetener to get them to take full freight on Laine's contract. In order to sign an RFA to an offer sheet, you must have the draft-pick compensation to pay his current team if they choose not to match. And to be clear, it has to be your second-round pick, not just any second-round pick.
Unless the Jackets reacquired that pick from the Canadiens, they could not sign a player to an offer sheet that includes a salary of between $7.02 million and $11.7 million. They could go over that range or under it, but not in that range. Puckpedia has a nifty display of all the price levels and compensation. One last thought: Matthew Knies would be a hell of a fit in Columbus, wouldn't he?
Will Adam Fantilli be signed to a bridge deal or a long-term deal — or will they look at an eight-year deal? — Greg M.
Don't know about eight years, but I'm guessing Waddell would be willing to go long-term with Fantilli, yes. My only hesitation in saying yes to eight years is that the player might be wise to see how high the salary cap goes — and where his game goes — before locking in long-term after his first full season. Thirty goals at 20 years old projects to one heck of a player. Ten-digit guy, right? We'll see where it goes and what makes sense to each party, but I would say, yes, there is a willingness on the part of the club to go long-term.
The organization moved on from some long-term employees this summer. What prompted these changes and why so many changes in so many different areas? — Courtney W.
We sort of knew when Waddell took over that changes were coming. Some happened right away, and others took time. New eyes make for new ideas. I don't get the sense that Waddell is bringing in guys from his previous stops. But it's pretty clear he wanted a new air about the building. Fair or not, that's his call. It is tough for many to see people who have been with the organization from the start get moved along. It's a tough business. I've talked to a couple who said that they feel fortunate to have lasted as long as they did. Good people.
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Are there any players named Luca worth drafting this year? I feel like we need to make it four years in a row, even if it's a seventh-round reach. — Todd G.
Luca Romano, a right-shot center from Kitchener of the Ontario Hockey League. Could see him going in the third round (No. 77 overall) or the fourth (No. 109). Book it.
Do you get the sense that Waddell and the amateur scouts are kicking themselves for passing on Ivan Demidov? — Matthew A.
Why specifically Demidov? My sense is the Blue Jackets are feeling much better about Lindstrom after he was able to get in some games at the end of this season without feeling any issues with his back. He'll take part in development camp and then have a crucial year at Michigan State. We're still years away from being able to evaluate this draft.
Given Aaron Ekblad's heavy usage, physical style and injury history, is that someone we really want to hand a long-term contract? — Jeffrey B.
If you want to sign him as a free agent, it is. I'll be very interested to see how Florida handles its business, with so little time between the end of the Stanley Cup Final and the start of the silly season. It's unclear if Ekblad will even be available. He's a lifelong Panther, so we'll see. But he will be in high demand if he hits the market. Heck of a player.
Could you project Boone Jenner's role next year? On a contender, I think Boone Is a third-line winger. Do you think we'll have enough depth to make that make sense? — Peter S.
Good question. Probably not one that's going to have a definitive answer, even after the summer moves are made, because this game is so fluid. It will be hard for the Blue Jackets to keep Jenner in a strictly third-line capacity until somebody else joins the club who is a really good faceoff guy and an absolutely gladiator for pucks along the wall. Monahan is strong on faceoffs. Jenner is strong. Everybody else is a work in progress.
One thing to look for this summer is that the Blue Jackets want a right-shot center who can help them with faceoffs on that side of the ice. Even if the Jackets add a top-six winger, I'd be reluctant to say that Jenner is a third-line guy. In part because teams tend think more in terms of top-nine now, and the mix of skill on the top three lines can be, for some guys, interchangeable. If there's an injury at center, Jenner could go back there, too. It's hard for coaches to keep a competitive player such as Jenner confined to a role playing just 12 to 14 minutes a game.
(Photo of Elvis Merzlikins: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
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