Trump's playbook: Pressure, provocation, and pageantry — Abbi Kanthasamy
JUNE 19 — Trump's foreign policy isn't subtle. It's not crafted in think tanks or hashed out in backchannel negotiations. It's performative. It's loud. It's often dangerous.
Here's what South-east Asia can expect:
More sanctions: Trump will reimpose — and expand — sanctions on Iranian oil. China, India, and Malaysia could get hit with secondary sanctions if they continue buying.
Green light for Israel: Expect US backing for Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. If Iran retaliates, the US is in — willingly or not.
Maritime mayhem: The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil flows, could be closed. Iranian naval mines, Us carriers, missile exchanges — the works.
No patience for Asean neutrality: Trump won't tolerate fence-sitting. Countries trading with Iran or hedging with China might find themselves on the wrong side of a tweet — or a tariff.
According to the author, US President Donald Trump doesn't do multilateralism. He does ultimatums. And in this volatile new order, fence-sitters risk getting gored. — Reuters pic
Malacca, not Manhattan, will feel the heat
While Western analysts debate Pentagon strategy and Gulf troop deployments, here's what they're missing: South-east Asia will be the economic shock absorber of this conflict.
1. Oil shock therapy
Oil markets are already on edge. Brent crude is flirting with three-digit territory again. If war breaks out, US$150/barrel (RM640) isn't a fantasy — it's a floor.
Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines — all oil importers — will see inflation soar. Subsidies will balloon. Currencies will shiver. Central banks will be forced into impossible corners: hike rates and kill growth, or print money and kill stability.
2. Shipping reroutes = Chaos
With the Red Sea unsafe, global trade will reroute. The Strait of Malacca becomes the new Suez. Ports in Singapore, Penang, Klang, and Batam will choke with redirected container traffic. Expect congestion, insurance hikes, and shipping delays. Expect chaos.
3. Geopolitical headaches
China, Iran's top oil customer, will push back hard against Trump's sanctions. Asean, caught in the middle, will be squeezed — diplomatically, economically, and militarily. This is not the time to have no plan.
Can Asean afford to be a spectator?
For decades, Asean has survived by not picking sides. But Trump's return might blow neutrality out of the water.
Do you trade with Iran? Prepare for sanctions.
Do you buy American weapons? Prepare for scrutiny.
Do you hedge with China? Prepare for pressure.
Trump doesn't do multilateralism. He does ultimatums. And in this volatile new order, fence-sitters risk getting gored.
So what now?
Trump may not want a full-blown war. But that's not the point. History rarely asks for permission. One wrong move in Hormuz, one Israeli miscalculation, one Iranian overreaction — and suddenly we're not talking about hypotheticals anymore. We're talking about US$12 nasi lemak and 20 per cent interest rates.
It's time South-east Asia woke up. This isn't just an American problem. It's not even just a Middle Eastern problem. It's a global crisis in the making — with the potential to leave Asean gasping for air between supply shocks, security dilemmas, and diplomatic traps.
In Trump's world, the strong make the rules. The rest dodge the fallout.
Brace yourselves. The elephants are dancing again. And the grass — that's us — has never looked more fragile.
* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
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