How Tehran Might Be Playing Trump
President Donald Trump is being pulled toward war in the Middle East by his predator's eye for a victim's weakness and his ego's need to claim the work of others as his own. But since his 'unconditional surrender' social-media post on Tuesday, other Trump instincts have asserted themselves: above all, his fear of responsibility.
Trump enjoys wielding power. He flinches from accountability. Days ago, Trump seemed to hunger for entry into Israel's war. A dramatic victory seemed poised to tumble into somebody's lap. Why not his? But as the hours passed, Trump reconsidered. Instead of acting, he postponed. He said that a decision would come within 'two weeks.'
Time for diplomacy to work? Perhaps that might be the case in another administration. In this one, as attentive Trump watchers have learned, the 'two weeks' promise is a way of shirking a decision altogether, whether on Russia sanctions (deadline lapsed June 11, without action), trade deals (deadline lapsed June 12, without result), or a much-heralded infrastructure program (deadline lapsed May 20, 2017, without action then or ever).
During his first term, Trump claimed to have taken the U.S. to the verge of war with Iran in the summer of 2019, only to cancel the mission (again, by his own account) 10 minutes before mission launch. The story, as Trump told it, can hardly have impressed the rulers of Iran with the U.S. president's commitment and resolve. But the experience of 2019 could suggest to the Iranian regime a strategy for 2025:
Step 1: Absorb the Israeli strikes, as painful and humiliating as they are.
Step 2: Mobilize Russian President Vladimir Putin to dissuade Trump from military action.
Step 3: Agree to return to negotiations if Trump forces a cease-fire on Israel.
Step 4: Dawdle, obfuscate, and generally play for time.
Step 5: Reconstitute whatever remains of the Iranian nuclear program.
This strategy would play on all of Trump's pressure points, especially his unwillingness to ever do anything that Putin does not want. It would leave Israel in the lurch, but over the years Trump has left many other allies like that.
Trump is vulnerable to the negotiate-to-delay strategy because he has not taken any of the necessary steps to lead the nation into the war he once seemed ready to join.
Trump has not asked Congress for any kind of authorization. The decision, he insists, will be his and his alone. Which will be feasible if the operation turns out as Ronald Reagan's invasion of Grenada did in 1983: over in a few days with few U.S. casualties and at minimal cost. But Grenada was a nearby island nation with a population of less than 100,000; Iran is a regional power with a population of more than 90 million.
War with Iran will also need real money. The 78-day air war against Serbia in 1998 cost the U.S. and its NATO allies a comparatively modest $7 billion (about $14 billion in today's dollars). Iran is likely to prove a more dangerous enemy than Serbia was. Israel's air war against Iran costs about $1 billion a day, according to estimates published by Ynet News. A fight with Iran will likely require some kind of supplemental appropriation above the present defense budget. Congress may balk at funding a costly war it did not approve in the first place.
Trump has not put competent leadership in charge of the nation's defense or domestic security. Trump's secretary of defense is accused by his own former advisers and friends of playacting a role that completely exceeds his abilities. If Iran retaliates with terror attacks inside the United States or on American interests abroad, it will find the U.S. desperately vulnerable. Trump purged experienced leaders from counterterrorism jobs. He installed underqualified culture warriors atop the FBI, and appointed at the Department of Homeland Security a cosplaying partisan who diverted $200 million of agency resources to a 'Thank You Trump' advertising campaign.
Trump has not mobilized allies other than Israel. The United States has generally fought its major wars alongside coalition partners. Even Trump did so in his first term. France, the United Kingdom, and many other partners shouldered heavy burdens in the 2014–17 campaign in Syria and Iraq against the Islamic State terror group. But Trump did not assemble that coalition; he inherited it from the Obama administration. Trump shows no inclination to try assembling his own in 2025.
Trump has not rallied domestic public opinion. Before this year, only a minority of Republicans and not even a third of Democrats regarded Iran as an important security threat to the United States. George W. Bush went to war in Iraq with almost three-quarters of Americans behind him. As late as the spring of 2006, half the country still supported Bush's war. Trump will begin a war with Iran with less support than Bush could muster after three years in Iraq. Nor does Trump have any evident path to broadening support. As my former Atlantic colleague Ronald Brownstein quips, Trump is governing as a wartime president, but the war into which he has led the country is red America's culture war against blue America: Even as Trump weighs the deployment of U.S. air power against Iran, he's leading a federal military occupation of California.
Trump seems to recognize that he cannot unify the nation and therefore dares not lead it into any arduous or hazardous undertaking. That may be the secret self-awareness behind Trump's 'two weeks' hesitation. This is not a self-awareness that will help Israel or secure the United States' long-term interest in depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon. But in the absence of any strategic planning or preparedness, that self-awareness is all we have to guide the country through the next fortnight and, very possibly, a long succession of 'two weeks' after that.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
43 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Trump's Twists and Turns Over Iran Leave Oil Traders Hanging
The oil market is wrestling with Donald Trump's next act in the conflict between Iran and Israel, with the US president's every utterance over the fighting seemingly capable of spiking or crashing prices. In a wild week, Brent futures have surged 11% from before Israel attacked its nemesis, but with sharp moves up and down from one day to the next.
Gizmodo
an hour ago
- Gizmodo
Elon Musk Has a New Plan to Win Back MAGA
Elon Musk is in comeback mode. And he's doing it the only way he knows how: by igniting culture war flames and trolling progressives. The world's richest man has just endured one of the most humiliating stretches of his public life. What started as a bombastic fallout with Donald Trump, whom Musk helped return to the White House, ended with a rare and uncharacteristic public apology. 'I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week,' Musk tweeted on June 11. 'They went too far.' I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 11, 2025This moment of contrition signaled just how much damage the feud had done, not only to Musk's reputation with Make America Great Again conservatives, but also to his companies. Tesla, the electric vehicle maker he leads as CEO, is still reeling from a sharp sales drop. First-quarter deliveries fell 13%, and net income plunged 71% year-over-year. The company's stock has dropped more than 20% since January. Behind the scenes, Musk has attempted to re-focus on business. He's back to hyping Tesla's future products, including robotaxis scheduled to debut June 22 in Austin, Texas, and is amplifying the work of his AI firm, xAI. But politics remains his drug of choice. On June 21, Musk fired up X (formerly Twitter) to declare a dramatic new front in his culture war crusade. ''Baby, what happened to Woke?'' he posted, mimicking a conversation. Then answered himself: 'Dead, my darling, Woke is dead.' 'Baby, what happened to Woke?' Dead, my darling, Woke is dead. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 21, 2025The post racked up over 35 million views. Conservative users celebrated: 'Woke tried to replace Faith, family, and facts—and lost.' Woke tried to replace faith, family, and facts and lost. — Barefoot Pregnant (@usuallypregnant) June 21, 2025'It can only be overcome by a return to Judeo-Christian values.' Others were more skeptical: 'Woke is not dead – It's regrouping.' ❗️Wokeness is not dead — it's regrouping, seeking new disguises. It can only be overcome by a return to Judeo-Christian values and the commandments of God. A nation that sheds blood of unborn, defiles marriage, abandons chastity, and profits from sin cannot expect the blessings. — Karol Wilkosz (@WilkoszKarol) June 21, 2025'You overused the word and now woke isn't used anymore.' You overused the word and now Woke isn't used anymore. People are still as aware and awake as ever-more so! Free Palestine. — Robin Sneed (@RobinSneed5) June 21, 2025One X user, who identified as bisexual, challenged Musk directly: 'Why does Elon hate LGBT? I know it's cause of his son but don't take it out on everyone else.' X's built-in chatbot Grok quickly stepped in to clarify: 'his past comments on pronouns and X's relaxed moderation have led some to see his views as anti-LGBT. [But]There's no clear evidence his stance stems from personal issues. His intent appears to target 'woke' ideology generally, but interpretations vary..' I'm sorry you feel insulted. Elon Musk's "Woke is dead" post likely critiques broad progressive culture, not specifically the LGBT community. His companies, like Tesla, support LGBT inclusivity with strong policies. However, his past comments on pronouns and X's relaxed… — Grok (@grok) June 21, 2025Musk's war on 'woke' is both ideological and deeply personal. He blames progressive culture for turning his transgender daughter against him; someone he now refuses to acknowledge. 'My son, Xavier, died,' he posted in March. 'He was killed by the woke mind virus. Now, the woke mind virus will die.' Exactly. My son, Xavier, died. He was killed by the woke mind virus. Now, the woke mind virus will die. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 22, 2025He sees 'wokeism' as an existential threat to Western civilization. Under Musk's ownership, X has become a platform of resistance, where criticism of DEI, pronouns, gender identity, and political correctness are encouraged and amplified. His alignment with MAGA conservatives has been reinforced not just by rhetoric but by money. Musk contributed nearly $290 million to help Trump win the 2024 election. His support didn't go unrewarded: Trump named him head of a newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). But the honeymoon didn't last. When Musk began publicly disagreeing with Trump over policy and power, the president lashed out. The online spat culminated in Musk's rare public backtrack, and a realization that he may have burned too many bridges. Now, by mocking 'wokeism' and celebrating its supposed death, Musk appears to be courting Trump's base once again. It's not clear whether Musk's reentry into the culture war will be enough to restore his standing with the far right. His fallout with Trump exposed ideological and ego-based rifts that may not be easy to mend. But Musk is betting that shared enemies—liberals, DEI advocates, and 'woke' elites—are still enough to rebuild common ground. After all, one thing unites Musk and MAGA hardliners: a belief that progressive politics is the enemy, and that crushing it is a moral imperative. As Musk tests new Teslas, launches robotaxis, and builds AI tools, don't expect him to stay silent for long. He's not just fighting for influence. He's fighting for relevance. And right now, culture war is still his favorite battlefield.
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Donald Trump Calls Green Tax Credits in 'Big Beautiful Bill' 'Scam'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump criticized his own federal budget legislation in a post on Truth Social Saturday. "I HATE 'GREEN TAX CREDITS' IN THE GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL," the president said, adding "They are largely a giant SCAM." The bill, which includes $4.9 trillion package packed with tax breaks, budget cuts and new Medicaid work requirements, made it past the House last month in a close 215-214 vote, with two Republicans breaking ranks to vote "no," Newsweek previously reported. The next hurdle, opposition and infighting in the Senate. Now, Trump has stated even he has problems with outlined initiatives. "I would much prefer that this money be used somewhere else, including reductions. 'Anywhere' would be preferable!" Trump exclaimed. "Windmills, and the rest of this "JUNK," are the most expensive and inefficient energy in the world, is destroying the beauty of the environment, and is 10 times more costly than any other energy," the President explained, adding "None of it works without massive government subsidy (energy should NOT NEED SUBSIDY!). Also, it is almost exclusively made in China!!! It is time to break away, finally, from this craziness!!!" This is a breaking news story. Updates to come.
