
Economic Debate Begins on Impact of ‘Military Keynesianism'
I'm Chris Anstey, an economics editor in Boston. Today we're looking at the economic effects of a ramp up in defense spending. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net. And if you aren't yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here.
The late Richard Nixon was quoted as having said in 1971 that we are all Keynesians now. With governments from Berlin and Tokyo to Washington and New Delhi all planning to lift defense spending, it might now be said we're all military Keynesians.
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Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Vance says U.S. 'not at war with Iran, we're at war with Iran's nuclear program'
WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance said Sunday that the U.S. is not at war with Iran, but with Tehran's nuclear weapons program, and declined to confirm with 100% confidence that the country's nuclear sites had been completely destroyed. During an interview on NBC News' 'Meet the Press,' moderator Kristen Welker asked the vice president whether the U.S. was now at war with Iran after President Donald Trump said the U.S. military had dropped bombs on three Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday. The move marked the first time that the U.S. had directly attacked Iran and prompted concerns about whether attacks could drag the U.S. into a wider war. Hours later, Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel, causing damage in Tel Aviv. Follow along for live coverage 'We're not at war with Iran,' Vance said. 'We're at war with Iran's nuclear program.' Vance also declined to confirm with 100% certainty that Iran's nuclear sites were completely destroyed, saying instead that he believes the U.S. has 'substantially delayed' Iran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon. "Do you have 100% confidence that Iran's nuclear sites were totally destroyed?" Welker asked. 'I'm not going to get into sensitive intelligence about what we've seen on the ground there in Iran, but we've seen a lot, and I feel very confident that we've substantially delayed their development of a nuclear weapon, and that was the goal of this attack," Vance said. He separately said during the interview that the U.S. 'destroyed the Iranian nuclear program,' adding, 'I think we set that program back substantially.' When pressed in a separate interview on ABC News' "This Week" over whether the Fordo facility was damaged or destroyed, Vance declined to draw a distinction. "Severely damaged versus obliterated — I'm not exactly sure what the difference is," Vance said. "What we know is we set their nuclear program back substantially." Trump had said Saturday night that the facilities were 'completely and totally obliterated,' but an Iranian parliament member said on Sunday that Fordo was not seriously damaged in the strike. NBC News cannot independently verify either claim. 'Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,' Trump said in his Saturday-night address to the nation. 'Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace.' Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said during a Sunday morning press briefing that 'Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.' During the same briefing, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine said that "final battle damage will take some time." "But initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction," Caine added. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also said that Iran 'reserves all options' for its response. Trump said in an all-capitalized post to Truth Social on Saturday that 'any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight.' In the hours since the strike, the U.S. has received 'some indirect messages from the Iranians,' Vance said. Asked whether the U.S. would draw a red line if Iran disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a major route, Vance said the move would be 'suicidal' for Iran. 'Their entire economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz. If they want to destroy their own economy and cause disruptions in the world, I think that would be their decision,' he said. 'But why would they do that? I don't think it makes any sense.' The vice president said that the U.S. wants peace with Iran 'in the context of them not having a nuclear weapons program.' He argued that the U.S. did not 'blow up' diplomacy, casting blame instead on Iran for not giving diplomacy 'a real chance.' 'The Iranians are clearly not very good at war. Perhaps they should follow President Trump's lead and give peace a chance,' Vance said. 'If they're serious about it, I guarantee you the President of the United States is too.' The U.S. attack came after Israel launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities earlier this month, prompting Iran to retaliate with strikes against Israel. The two countries have been locked in a military conflict since then. The U.S. initially denied its involvement, but in the days following the initial attacks, the president weighed whether the U.S. should unleash the military to back Israel. U.S. has 'bunker buster' bombs that could penetrate Fordo, which is built inside a mountain — the only country known to have this type of weapon. Support for the president's decision largely fell along party lines. Some Democratic lawmakers — as well as at least two GOP lawmakers — argued that it was unconstitutional for the president to decide to conduct military strikes without Congressional approval, pointing to the Constitution's delegation of power and the War Powers Act. A handful of Democrats argued that Trump's actions were grounds for impeachment. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., brushed off concerns, saying during an interview on "Meet the Press" that Trump was acting within his authority. "Congress can declare war or cut off funding. We can't be the commander-in-chief. You can't have 535 commander-in-chiefs," Graham said, referring to the number of representatives and senators. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., said that the president can act militarily "when there's a clear and imminent threat to U.S. citizens, to the United States, to the homeland." "That wasn't the case here," Kelly said. In the days leading up to the strikes, Trump's MAGA movement allies split over whether the U.S. should get involved militarily against Iran. The disagreement spilled into the open, with the sides criticizing each other on social media. This article was originally published on


Washington Post
35 minutes ago
- Washington Post
11 days in June: Trump's path to 'yes' on bombing Iran
WASHINGTON — For more than a week, President Donald Trump kept the world wondering whether he would join Israel's attacks on Iran in an attempt to decapitate the country's nuclear program. The guessing ended this weekend, when American stealth bombers, fighter jets and a submarine struck with bombs and missiles. Trump's decision marks one of the riskiest foreign policy decisions by a U.S. president in recent memory, potentially plunging the nation back into armed conflict in the Middle East with no clear endgame. Like most of Trump's presidency, the path to military action was unconventional and played out on social media, as he alternatively pledged diplomacy, demanded the evacuation of Tehran, threatened the ayatollah and ultimately announced the U.S. strike. Here's a look at how the last 11 days unfolded, a cascade of events that could reshape a combustible corner of the globe. All dates below are in Eastern time. The first sign that conflict could be on the horizon came when families of U.S. troops began leaving the Middle East. 'They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place, and we'll see what happens,' Trump said as he arrived at the Kennedy Center for opening night of 'Les Misérables,' one of his favorite musicals. It wasn't clear whether Israel was preparing to strike, fulfilling years of threats to attack Iran's nuclear program, or if the movements were a feint to increase pressure for negotiations. The next round of talks between Washington and Tehran was just days away, and Trump was adamant about reaching a diplomatic solution. Behind the scenes, the Israeli military operation was already taking shape. Trump said an attack by Israel 'could very well happen.' But Iran still seemed to be taken by surprise. Around 8 p.m. in Washington, explosions in Tehran killed top military leaders and scientists. Multiple sites connected to Iran's nuclear program were also hit. Israel said 200 warplanes took part in the first wave of attacks. More damage was done with drones that Israeli spies had smuggled into the country, destroying air defenses and missile launchers. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it as a 'targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival.' Although Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes, Israeli leaders claimed it was an imminent threat. Trump posted on social media that 'we remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution,' but his tone would soon change. Iran retaliated against Israel with missiles and drones, many of which were shot down by air defenses. As Trump started his day in Washington, he seemed impressed by Israeli military prowess and his tone became more aggressive toward Iran. 'The United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come - And they know how to use it,' he wrote on social media. But Trump suggested that diplomacy was his first choice, and urged Iran to make a deal. 'Now they have, perhaps, a second chance' to get it done, he said. Trump talked to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the morning, and they discussed the conflict between Israel and Iran. The next round of talks between the U.S. and Iran was canceled. As Israel and Iran continued to trade strikes, Trump attended a military parade in Washington. It was the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army, as well as his 79th birthday. The muscular display of American military might — tanks, troops, paratroopers and a 21-gun salute — played out in the nation's capital as the potential for a new conflict loomed. Trump spent the day talking up his reputation as a peacemaker, encouraging Iran and Israel to 'make a deal' similar to how he had brokered an end to fighting between India and Pakistan. 'Many calls and meetings now taking place,' Trump wrote on social media. 'I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that's OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!' Iran's health ministry said 224 people had been killed by Israeli strikes at this point in the conflict. Reports also emerged that Trump had rejected an Israeli plan to kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei . U.S. officials viewed the idea as dangerously destabilizing. Trump flew to Canada for the annual Group of Seven summit, which gathers the world's most powerful democracies. He would not be there long. Israel claimed it had achieved 'aerial superiority' over Tehran, allowing its warplanes to operate freely in the skies above Iran's capital. One of the strikes hit Iran's state-run television, abruptly stopping a live broadcast. Netanyahu said Israeli strikes set back Iran's nuclear program a 'very, very long time.' However, the extent of the damage was unclear, and U.S. and Israeli officials believed only American planes with specially designed 'bunker buster' bombs had the capability to destroy nuclear sites buried deep underground. After a single day at the G7 summit, the White House abruptly announced that Trump would leave early on a red-eye flight to Washington to meet with his national security team. Trump demanded Iran's 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER' in a post on social media and he told reporters aboard Air Force One that he wanted 'a real end' to the conflict, not just a ceasefire. He expressed frustration with Iranian leaders for failing to reach an agreement. 'They should have done the deal. I told them, 'Do the deal,'' he said. 'So I don't know. I'm not too much in the mood to negotiate.' Trump also brushed off assessments from U.S. spy agencies that Iran hadn't decided to build a nuclear weapon. He insisted they were 'very close.' The sun had not yet risen when Trump arrived at the White House. He took part in a meeting in the Situation Room, but did not appear publicly. With little clarity on next steps, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters that 'I'm here to take questions, not necessarily answer them.' By this point, there was no question that Trump was considering joining Israel's attacks on Iran. 'I may do it, I may not do it,' he said that morning. 'Nobody knows what I'm going to do.' The president spoke to reporters while overseeing the installation of a massive new flagpole on the South Lawn of the White House, toggling back and forth between chatting up construction workers in hard hats and sizing up the Iranian nuclear threat. Later, in the Oval Office, Trump again suggested that the U.S. might get directly involved to thwart Iran's atomic ambitions. 'I'm not looking to fight,' he said. 'But if it's a choice between fighting and having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do.' On Capitol Hill, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers the Pentagon was presenting Trump with military options. It was a federal holiday — Juneteenth — and much of Washington took the hot, steamy day off, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt scheduled a briefing nonetheless. She entered the briefing room to deliver a message from the president: He would decide within two weeks whether to become directly involved in Israel's war on Iran. Trump has long been known to toss out 'two week' deadlines for actions that never materialize, so the statement left people guessing on his next move. Trump convened another meeting of his national security advisers and then flew to his golf club in New Jersey, where he attended a political fundraiser in the evening. He talked to reporters briefly en route, long enough to say his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard , was 'wrong' when she previously said that the U.S. believed Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon. Around midnight, the U.S. military operation began in secret: B-2 stealth bombers taking off from a base in Missouri. They headed east, over the Atlantic Ocean, refueling from airborne tankers along the way. It would take them 18 hours to reach Iran. A decoy flight went west, toward the Pacific. Trump returned to the White House from New Jersey around 6 p.m. Less than an hour later, American ordinance began exploding in Tehran. More than two dozen Tomahawk missiles were fired from a U.S. submarine. Fighter jets scanned for Iranian interceptors. The stealth bombers dropped 14 bunker buster bombs, marking the first time that the 30,000-pound weapon had been used in combat. Trump announced the strikes on social media, saying it was a 'very successful attack and 'NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!' In a brief national address from the White House, the president threatened to attack Iran again if there was any retaliation. 'There will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran,' he said.


Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Bloomberg
Lone Qantas Bear Warns Rally at Risk From $13 Billion Fleet Tab
The last remaining bearish analyst covering Qantas Airways Ltd. is defying the stock's record rally, warning that the airline may yet be undone by a A$20 billion ($13 billion) bill to replace its aging fleet. Morningstar's Angus Hewitt has the only sell rating on Qantas among 16 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. He's watched on this year as shares in the Australian airline blasted through the target prices of his bullish rivals. The stock's 65% surge in the past 12 months makes Qantas the fourth-best performer on the Bloomberg World Airlines index.