US defense official: US ready to defend PH despite growing China military

INDO-PACIFIC COMMAND, Hawaii — China's aggressive actions in the South China Sea, Taiwan and the East China Sea will continue because of its growing military capability and larger fleets of ships, but an attack on Taiwan may not be imminent as some fear, a United States defense official said.
A collective security arrangement in Asia, similar to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Europe, the US official said, will deter any major act of aggression more than bilateral mutual defense treaties.
China, for example, will have to worry about facing military forces from multiple countries because under such a security treaty, "an attack on one is an attack on all," the US official told a small group of journalists from Japan and the Philippines, including from GMA News Online, in an Asian security briefing here at the Indo-Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii.
The US official also said the deployment of the Typhon mid-range missile system and the Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or the NMESIS anti-ship missile, to the northern Philippines was a calculated move aimed at increasing the perceived lethal risks for China so the country will be deterred from launching an attack on Taiwan or in disputed waters like the South China Sea.
Both missile systems involve the launching of missiles from highly mobile trucks in highly secretive areas which could surprise the Chinese military, which is reputed for traditionally having less flexibility in dealing with combat unknowns, said the US official.
"China's approach to war fighting I call very mathematical. They want to note all the variables: who's involved, who's not involved. What bases are available, what bases are not available? What weapons are in play, what aren't in play?" said the official, who has had extensive combat experience and intelligence and agreed to speak on background.
"The more things become unknowns, the harder it is for them to get to a high confidence decision that they've accounted for everything because the Chinese fight according to plans. They don't adapt and adjust particularly well," the official said.
Photo by: Michaela del Callar
He added, "Where we're trying to get to is a whole series of mobile diverse spaces that bring threats to the Chinese in ways that they have to identify them, they have to track movement, they have to find them in the jungle."
"It's finding a couple of missile launchers in northern Luzon. It's a completely different problem and so, we think, in the process of doing that makes conflict less likely. And that's the critical piece," he said.
"We think ultimately, the deployment of Typhon or NMESIS or Japanese hypersonics is a very positive thing towards deterrence and war avoidance."
Asked if the US would deploy more such high-tech weapons to the Philippines, the official said such strategic decisions are mutually made by the two sides.
"If the Philippines government agrees to it, I'd say the answer is yes, if they say no, thanks, then the answer will be, no."
Aggression to continue
China claims the South China Sea virtually in its entirety and has deployed much larger fleets of coast guard, navy and suspected maritime militia ships in the past years to assert that extensive claim against smaller claimant states, which are the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei.
An international arbitration decision in 2016 ruled to invalidate China's territorial claims, but Beijing did not participate in the proceedings initiated by the Philippines and ignored the decision.
President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has developed closer military and defense ties with the US to strengthen the country's external defense, including in the West Philippine Sea, that part of the South China Sea that is nearest to the archipelago.
Chinese Coast Guard, Navy and suspected maritime militia ships have used high-pressure water cannons and dangerous maritime maneuvers to Philippine ships or vessels China has accused of entering its territorial waters illegally.
Japan has a separate territorial dispute with China over a set of islands in the East China Sea.
Continuing trend
Such aggressive actions by China would continue, the US official said in response to a question.
"It's going to be a continuation of all the trends we're currently seeing—pressure in various locations whether it's Taiwan or South China Sea or Senkakus," the official said.
"All of that is going to continue in part because the capability is increasing. There's just more stuff, more coast guard ships, more maritime militia, more things to execute that with," he said.
"The overall Chinese presence in the South China Sea," the official said, "has dramatically increased. It's facilitated by the operational use of their outposts in the Spratly Islands."
US to 'rapidly' respond
When asked how fast the US military can respond if the Philippines comes under an attack, the official said such a decision would be made more by officials in Washington than by the US military, which would execute them.
"I think the best answer is we have made deliberate preparations to respond rapidly to a crisis and maintain the capability of doing that," the American official said.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in a visit to Manila in March reaffirmed the Trump administration's "iron-clad" commitment to its obligations under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, which obliges the allies to help defend one another in case of an external attack.
'May not be imminent'
Regional worries over the prospect of China attacking Taiwan, the island democracy it claims and has threatened to re-annex by force, have escalated after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
The official, however, said such an attack may not be imminent and Russia's destructive invasion of Ukraine may not necessarily embolden China.
"I think the likelihood of a deliberate military operation, a significant operation against Taiwan is pretty remote in the next couple of years," the US official said.
"We get asked a lot and have thought a lot about the idea of did the war in Ukraine accelerate China's plans, and I don't think so. I think what it caused them to do was to soberly look, 'Hey, we're not ready. This is a really hard thing and if we get into it and we goof it up, it's hard to recover from that.'"
China would likely avoid employing massive military force against Taiwan if it eventually decides to launch actions to retake control over the island across the Taiwan Strait, the US official asserted.
"China doesn't want to use military force against Taiwan. It's clear from everything they've said and… that's a really bad idea for a lot of reasons, economically. Politically, reputationally, loss of life, it's not the preferred method. They want to achieve unification," he said. — VDV, GMA Integrated News

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