‘If Middle East Is Unstable, World Will Not Be at Peace': How China Views the Israel-Iran War
Iran's friends don't like the war decimating Tehran, but they're not ready to join the fight against Israel and potentially the U.S.
Instead, Russia and now China have urged deescalation, emphasizing the dangerous consequences the escalating conflict could have on the whole world.
'If the Middle East is unstable, the world will not be at peace,' Chinese President Xi Jinping said Thursday. 'If the conflict escalates further, not only will the conflicting parties suffer greater losses, but regional countries will also suffer greatly.'
'The warring parties, especially Israel, should cease fire as soon as possible to prevent a cycle of escalation and resolutely avoid the spillover of the war,' Xi added.
Xi's comments came in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which both leaders called for a ceasefire, according to a readout by China's foreign ministry. Earlier this week, Russia warned that Israel's attacks have brought the world 'millimeters' from nuclear calamity, and Putin urged Trump against attacking Iran, as the President is mulling direct U.S. military engagement in the war that has already killed hundreds in Iran and dozens in Israel.
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Putin and Xi 'strongly condemn Israel's actions, which violate the U.N. Charter and other norms of international law.' Ushakov added that Xi expressed support for Putin's suggestion to mediate the conflict, an offer Trump said he has rejected.
China, like Russia, has also positioned itself as a potential peacebroker, though experts say it's unlikely Israel would accept Beijing as a neutral conciliator, given its past criticisms of Israel and ties with Iran.
Here's what to know about how China has responded so far to the conflict and what it may see is at stake.
Rhetorical but not material support
'Iran doesn't need communiqués or declarations, but concrete help, like anti-aircraft systems or fighter jets,' Andrea Ghiselli, a Chinese foreign policy expert at the University of Exeter, told France 24. But communiqués and declarations are all China is likely to offer, experts tell TIME.
William Figueroa, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Groningen, tells TIME that China's lack of military support should not come as a surprise.
China has historically followed a policy of non-interference, focusing more on domestic issues while aiming to avoid entanglement in protracted foreign conflicts. Earlier this year, China similarly called on both India and Pakistan, the latter being an ' ironclad friend ' of China, to show restraint. And while it has been accused of providing ' very substantial ' support to Russia in its war against Ukraine, China has maintained that it doesn't provide weapons or troops to its neighbor. (Reports suggest, however, that its material support has included lethal systems.)
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that the White House doesn't see 'any signs' of China providing military support to Iran 'at this moment in time.'
Instead, China has offered words. Beijing has been 'harshly critical' of Israel, says Figueroa. In separate calls with his Iranian and Israeli counterparts over the past weekend, after Israel launched an attack on Friday against Iran, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that China 'explicitly condemns Israel's violation of Iran's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.'
It has also publicly advised the U.S. against greater involvement in the conflict.
'The heating up of the Middle East region serves no one's interests,' Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Tuesday. 'To fan up the flames, use threats and exert pressure does not help deescalate the situation and will only aggravate tensions and enlarge the conflict.'
'The international community, especially influential major countries, should uphold a fair position and a responsible attitude to create the necessary conditions for promoting a ceasefire and returning to dialogue and negotiation so as to prevent the regional situation from sliding into the abyss and triggering a greater disaster,' a Chinese state-media editorial declared on Thursday.
China's diplomatic response reflects its priority to 'lower the temperature,' says Figueroa, particularly in tensions with the U.S.
Diplomatic limitations
China has sought to deepen its investments and influence in the Middle East over the years, which has raised the expectations of its regional diplomacy to 'sky high' levels, says Figueroa. But while Beijing touted brokering a historic truce between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, the task before it now is much taller.
Wang, the Chinese foreign minister, said China is 'ready to play a constructive role' in resolving the conflict, according to foreign ministry readouts of his calls with both Iran and Israel, but unlike with Saudi Arabia and Iran, Figueroa says, Israel has expressed no interest in negotiating a resolution. And even if Israel was interested in coming to the table, China is unlikely to be seen as a neutral arbiter given its ties with Iran, criticisms of Israel including over Gaza, and ongoing global power competition with the U.S., Israel's biggest ally.
China has developed strong economic ties with Iran over the years, becoming Iran's largest trading partner and export market, especially for oil—a critical lifeline for Iran as the U.S. has placed severe economic sanctions on the country. Iran joined BRICS, the intergovernmental group China has viewed as an alternative collective of emerging powers to the Western-oriented G7, in 2024; joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Beijing-backed security group, in 2023; and the two countries signed a 25-year cooperative agreement in 2021.
While China has also maintained an economic relationship with Israel—China is Israel's second-biggest trading partner and the two countries have had an 'innovative comprehensive partnership' since 2017—Figueroa says it's 'not close enough to have a serious influence over Israel's actions.'
When asked about the possibility of China acting as a mediator, Israel's Ambassador to Beijing Eli Belotserkovsky told the South China Morning Post on Wednesday, 'at this stage, we are concentrating on the military campaign. This is our main concern at the moment, and we need to see how things will develop.' Still, he added that Israel would 'continue talking to China as [part of] an ongoing process.'
Failure to help bring peace to the Middle East could seriously dampen China's recent efforts to portray itself as an effective global peacebroker, especially after Ukraine already rejected a peace plan Beijing had proposed in 2023. And if Iran's regime falls, Marc Lanteigne, an associate professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway, told France 24, the China-mediated truce with Saudi Arabia would also risk 'going up in smoke.'
'It is hard to predict how the conflict itself might impact [China's diplomatic] efforts,' Figueroa says. 'A wider conflict would undoubtedly complicate Chinese diplomatic efforts, which largely rest on their ability to provide economic development.'
Economic concerns
While the Iran-China trade balance is largely skewed in China's favor— around a third of Iranian trade is with China, but less than 1% of Chinese trade is with Iran —China is heavily dependent on the Middle East's oil.
'China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil,' according to a statement in March by the U.S. State Department, which added: 'The Iranian regime uses the revenue it generates from these sales to finance attacks on U.S. allies, support terrorism around the world, and pursue other destabilizing actions.'
Sara Haghdoosti, executive director of public education and advocacy coalition Win Without War, tells TIME that China 'has a vested interest in seeing the conflict end before Israel strikes more of Iran's oil infrastructure.'
But China is less dependent on Iran itself than on access to the region's reserves. 'The Islamic Republic is a replaceable energy partner,' according to a Bloomberg analysis.
For global oil markets too, changes to Iran's supply alone are unlikely to cause significant price disruptions. 'Even in the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost, they could be replaced by spare capacity from OPEC+ producers,' assessed credit agency Fitch Ratings earlier this week.
Around 20% of the world's oil trade, however, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to close in retaliation if the U.S. joins the war.
'If the United States officially and operationally enters the war in support of the Zionists, it is the legitimate right of Iran in view of pressuring the U.S. and Western countries to disrupt their oil trade's ease of transit,' said Iranian lawmaker Ali Yazdikhah on Thursday, according to state-sponsored Iranian news agency Mehr News.
Doing so would also impact China, for which more than 40% of crude oil imports come from the Middle East.
The conflict's 'greatest impact on China could be on energy imports and supply chain security,' Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, told the South China Morning Post.
'While Beijing will continue to condemn the conflict, it will also seek to balance ties with Israel and the Gulf states and promote stable energy flows,' according to Bloomberg's analysts, especially as surging commodity prices would exacerbate domestic economic growth challenges already hampered by the trade war with the U.S. and an ongoing real estate crisis.
In response to a question about the potential interruption of Iranian oil supplies to China, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated on Tuesday the need to 'ease tensions as soon as possible' in order to 'prevent the region from spiraling into greater turmoil.'
A contained conflict could be good for China
'If a wider conflict breaks out,' Figueroa says, 'the impact on China's economic projects and investments in the region would be significant.' Foreign policy analyst Wesley Alexander Hill noted in a Forbes op-ed that an escalated conflict could force China into a bind between taking 'decisive action' to defend Iran, which might alienate Saudi Arabia, or doing nothing militarily and letting Israeli and potentially U.S. attacks 'continue to degrade Iranian export capacity,' which would leave other regional partners with a 'dim view [of] what Chinese commitment under pressure looks like.'
Still, some analysts have suggested that China—as well as Russia—may be content for now to sit back and let things play out, with their higher priorities clearly elsewhere.
According to Bloomberg Economics analyst Alex Kokcharov, a contained conflict in the Middle East could 'distract Washington from strategic competition with China.'
Added Bloomberg's bureau chief in China, Allen Wan, in a newsletter Friday: 'Should the U.S. once again get tangled up in a war in the Middle East, that'd probably suit China just fine. Beijing and the [People's Liberation Army] would appreciate the chance to squeeze Taiwan tighter.'
'At very least, both powers [Russia and China] are content to watch the U.S. further squander goodwill with gulf Arab partners by backing another destabilizing conflict in the region,' Haghdoosti, the Win Without War executive director, tells TIME. And they, she adds, are likely 'shedding no tears that the U.S. military is currently burning through stocks of difficult-to-replenish missile defense interceptors to shield Israel.'
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
an hour ago
Japan hosts coast guard drills with US and Philippines as sea tensions rise
TOKYO -- Japan's coast guard on Friday held a joint exercise with counterparts from the United States and the Philippines, as the three Pacific nations beef up defense cooperation in the face of China's expanding maritime activities. The exercise came after Japan confirmed that two Chinese aircraft carriers had operated together for the first time in the Pacific in June. Japan and China had blamed each other after Tokyo complained that a Chinese fighter jet from one of the carriers flew dangerously close to Japanese reconnaissance aircraft. Friday's coast guard exercise just off Japan's southern prefecture of Kagoshima involved 350 personnel from the three countries, and was based on a scenario of a collision between vessels at high seas, a fire and crew members falling overboard. , as they expressed concern over Beijing's military maneuvers in the region. Their first joint drills were held in the Philippines in 2023. The coast guard cooperation is part of an effort to secure a 'free and open' Indo-Pacific by promoting mutual understanding and trust, Japan coast guard commander Adm. Yoshio Seguchi told a news conference Wednesday. China routinely sends coast guard vessels, warships and warplanes around disputed East China Sea islands, and recently as far as Guam, a U.S. Pacific territory with military bases. Beijing also sends coast guard vessels in the South China Sea, which it claims virtually in its entirety, clashing frequently with Philippine vessels.
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Chinese Media Issues Trump-Iran Tensions Warning—'Sliding Into the Abyss'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Chinese state media is warning U.S. President Donald Trump to wade carefully into the Iran-Israel conflict, writing in a new editorial that stoked tensions could trigger an aftermath that makes the previous Iraq and Afghanistan wars pale in comparison. Why It Matters White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that Trump, who has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender," is weighing U.S. military involvement in the Middle East over the next two weeks. Indeterminate numbers of casualties have occurred in both Iran and Israel, though Israel's intentions to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities may require U.S. artillery aid in the form of multi-ton bunker buster bombs. What To Know Whether or not the U.S. employs its precision-guided "bunker buster" bombs, the nation's direct involvement in the region "will leave a complicated aftermath that might take it longer than the Iraq War or the Afghanistan War to deal with," reads the editorial by China Daily, an English-language daily newspaper owned by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). "The international community, especially influential major countries, should uphold a fair position and a responsible attitude to create the necessary conditions for promoting a ceasefire and returning to dialogue and negotiation so as to prevent the regional situation from sliding into the abyss and triggering a greater disaster," the editorial published on Friday reads. Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd-L) attends a meeting with Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (not pictured) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 13, 2025. Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd-L) attends a meeting with Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (not pictured) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 13, 2025. TINGSHU WANG/POOL/AFP via Getty Images Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and professor at City College of New York, told Newsweek on Friday that China "has come out squarely" against Israeli attacks and been especially critical of Israel's targeting of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. "Yet it has also offered its services as mediator," Menon said. "In 2023, Beijing brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and has now once again presented itself as a peacemaker. "This, in part, reflects its increasing ambitions to project political influence worldwide but, in this instance, also to highlight a constraint between itself and the Trump administration, which it has painted as bent on increasing the likelihood of a wider conflict. "That said, I would be surprised to see this war end with a China-mediated deal." The editorial also questions whether Israel and/or the U.S. would be "held responsible" for war escalation, or more serious consequences emanating from a potential nuclear leak triggered by bombs. "It is partly through projecting his administration as a peacemaker and accusing his predecessor of being the opposite that Trump won the presidential election in the U.S. in November," the editorial continues. "Yet people's hopes that he can fulfill his promise of ending both the Gaza and Ukraine crises have yet to be fulfilled. "With the Israeli leader relentlessly trying to convince the U.S. that its interests overlap with Israel's in the Middle East, the U.S. president should be clearheaded that the U.S.' direct participation in a conflict between Israel and Iran might prove to be the tail wagging the dog." Chinese President Xi Jinping has expressed deep concern for the unfolding situation, saying during a meeting with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, that escalation is "not in the common interest of the international community." "We oppose any act that infringes upon the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of other countries," Xi said. Also on Thursday, Xi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin specifically about the Middle East conflict. Xi reportedly laid out a four-point proposal with the following intentions: a ceasefire must be an urgent priority; ensuring civilian safety as a top priority; employing dialogue and negotiation as fundamental solutions; and utilizing the "indispensable peacemaking efforts" of the international community, according to Global Times, a daily Chinese tabloid under the CCP's flagship newspaper, People's Daily. Along with the announcement of a dozen cooperation agreements spanning green mining, trade, connectivity, personnel exchanges, and customs, Xi also called on Central Asian countries to deepen cooperation under China's "Belt and Road" infrastructure initiative. What People Are Saying Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project (CGSP): "This conflict—China came out very quickly and did not pretend to try and be a neutral arbiter, did not pretend to be kind of nonpartisan at all. They came out very quickly, backed Iran in this, framed the Israelis as the aggressor, and then also positioned the United States as manipulating all of this, which is par for the course in a lot of these types of incidents." President Donald Trump earlier this week wrote on Truth Social: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a national address, in part: "We warn America of the consequences of engaging in war, because it will suffer severe damage if it decides to do so. War is met with war, bombing with bombing, and strike with strike." What Happens Next Russia has discouraged the U.S. from direct involvement in the Middle East, saying it would spark a wider regional conflict.
Newsweek
2 hours ago
- Newsweek
US Ally Issues Update on China's Double Aircraft Carrier Moves in Pacific
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Chinese military has concluded its unprecedented dual aircraft carrier deployment in the broader western Pacific, as one of the warships was spotted leaving the region, Japan has said. Newsweek has contacted the Chinese defense and foreign ministries for comment by email. Why It Matters The Chinese navy is the world's largest by hull count, enabling the East Asian power to steadily expand its military reach and presence within and beyond the western Pacific, challenging U.S. naval dominance as well as the security of America's allies and partners. Both of China's aircraft carriers in active service—CNS Liaoning and CNS Shandong—have been operating simultaneously in waters east of the First Island Chain, a U.S. maritime defensive line formed by Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, for the first time since June 7. This rare Chinese naval operation, closely monitored by Japan—a U.S. treaty ally—comes as the U.S. redeploys one of its two aircraft carriers, USS Nimitz, to the Middle East from the western Pacific, in response to rising tensions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict. What To Know The Japanese Defense Ministry issued another update on the Chinese dual aircraft carrier deployment on Friday, revealing that the Liaoning and its naval task group returned to the East China Sea from the Philippine Sea after transiting the Miyako Strait that same day. Meanwhile, the Shandong-led naval task group continued operating in waters east of the northern Philippines from Tuesday to Thursday. It remains unclear whether this Chinese flotilla will return to the western side of the First Island Chain by transiting the Luzon Strait. Both waterways—located along the First Island Chain—are key gateways for China's naval operations in the broader western Pacific. The Miyako Strait lies in Japan's southwestern waters, while the Luzon Strait separates Taiwan to the north and the Philippines to the south. With regard to the Chinese aircraft carriers' flight operations involving fighter jets and helicopters, the Liaoning conducted 150 takeoffs and landings from Tuesday to Thursday, while the Shandong executed 120 takeoffs and landings during the same three-day period. The Liaoning, underway in the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea since May 25, has performed a total of 700 aircraft takeoffs and landings. Meanwhile, the Shandong has conducted 350 takeoffs and landings since June 9, according to Japan's Defense Ministry. In total, fighter jets and helicopters from the Chinese aircraft carriers executed over 1,000 takeoffs and landings during this western Pacific deployment, which lasted nearly a month. What People Are Saying Jiang Bin, spokesperson for the Chinese Defense Ministry, said in a statement on June 13: "China's carrier training was conducted in international waters, was not directed at any specific country or target, and fully complied with international law and international practice." Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a press conference on June 10: "Let me reiterate that Chinese naval vessels' activities in those waters are fully consistent with international law and international practices. Our national defense policy is defensive in nature. We hope Japan will view those activities objectively and rationally." Chinese aircraft carriers CNS Liaoning, top, and CNS Shandong, bottom, conduct flight operations with J-15 fighter jets in the western Pacific Ocean in early June 2025. Chinese aircraft carriers CNS Liaoning, top, and CNS Shandong, bottom, conduct flight operations with J-15 fighter jets in the western Pacific Ocean in early June 2025. Chinese military What Happens Next The objectives of this Chinese dual aircraft carrier deployment remain to be seen. It is unclear whether the U.S. will enhance its naval presence in the western Pacific.
