UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer odds, picks and predictions
UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer odds, picks and predictions
In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer meet Saturday at UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main event is expected to start approximately at 11:15 p.m. ET. The early prelims are slated to begin at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+) with the prelims scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+) and the main card set for 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 316: Gastelum vs. Pyfer odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Gastelum (20-9-0) | Pyfer (13-3-0)
Gastelum last fought almost a year ago when he claimed a unanimous-decision victory against Daniel Rodriguez June 22, 2024. It was a nice bounceback for Gastelum as he suffered a submission loss to Sean Brady Dec. 2, 2023. Gastelum is 3-6 in his past 9 fights dating back to April 2019 when he lost a title bout to Israel Adesanya at UFC 236.
Pyfer also hasn't fought since last June when he picked up a Round 1 KO/TKO victory over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 303, rebounding from a unanimous-decision setback to Jack Hermansson in a Fight Night main event in February 2024. Pyfer is 5-1 in his last 6 bouts since July 2022.
The veteran Gastelum heads into this fight as a big underdog. He gives away 4 inches in reach and is 5 years older than Pyfer. The significant strikes landed per minute is basically even with Gastelum at 3.74 and Pyfer at 3.72. Gastelum has a 46.66% significant strikes accuracy percentage, while Pyfer is at 41.95%.
The 28-year-old Pyfer has managed a 1.45 takedown average, while Gastelum checks in at 1.10 in the category. On submission average, Pyfer has a 0.87 mark in the category, while Gastelum has posted just a 0.10 mark in that area.
UFC 316: Gastelum vs. Pyfer odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 a.m. ET.
Fight result (2-way line) : Gastelum +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Pyfer -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
: Gastelum +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Pyfer -400 (bet $400 to win $100) Total Rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over -135 | Under +100)
2.5 Rounds (Over -135 | Under +100) Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -105 | No -130)
UFC 316: Gastelum vs. Pyfer picks and predictions
Backing Pyfer (-400) will cost 4 times the potential return. That's way too much risk for a singular bet. Even if you were to toss the -400 into a multi-leg parlay, it chips away a lot of value from your betslip.
Pyfer is a punching machine and is tremendous in finding ways to get the knockout. On the flip side, Gastelum is on the downside of his career, dropping 6 of the past 9 bouts (as mentioned). While Gastelum hasn't been knocked out in his career, going 6-0 via the method, eating punches at a rapid rate, whether he is knocked out or not, will leave a bad taste in the mouths of the judges.
Backing PYFER BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) at plus-money is a much better value on the 7-way method of victory line.
Play our free daily Pick'em Challenge and win! Play now!
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play, as Gastelum has the chops as a veteran to hang around even if he is eating punches and falling behind on points in the eyes of the judges.
Pyfer should be able to do much more to get in favor of the judges. For distance, that's neither here nor there, however. He can win via KO/TKO, and via submission, but Gastelum's defense is solid, and his veteran leadership will at least help him hang around to let the judges decide. YES (-105): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a good play at near even-money.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Daniel Dobish on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
USA Today
41 minutes ago
- USA Today
Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes prediction, pick, start time for UFC on ABC 8
Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes meet Saturday in the co-main event of UFC on ABC 8 at Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom. Last event: 5-1 UFC main cards, 2025: 57-44-1 Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes UFC Baku preview Fiziev (12-4 MMA, 6-4 UFC) will look to end the roughest stretch of his pro career, as he comes in on a three-fight skid. While the results haven't been on his side, he's been extremely competitive, taking home Fight of the Night bonuses in two fights against Justin Gaethje. The other loss on this run was an unfortunate injury TKO loss against Mateusz Gamrot. Prior to those three fights, Fiziev racked up six straight wins, earning bonuses in five of them. ... Bahamondes (17-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC) has been no stranger to extra checks on fight night. He comes in opposite of Fiziev, running hot on a three-fight winning streak, all by first-round finish. Not only did Bahamondes make quick work of Christo Giagos, Manuel Torres and Jalin Turner, he also earned Performance of the Night bonuses for each finish. Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes UFC Baku expert pick, prediction The co-main event on ABC features a striker's delight at lightweight between Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes. Although this seems like a tough spot for Fiziev, given that he's technically coming off three losses, his recent resume has more to it than meets the eye. Aside from one of his losses coming by injury, Fiziev had a quiet argument for winning his first encounter with Justin Gaethje before being booked for a senseless rematch on short notice with "The Highlight" after an extended layoff due to said injury. To Fiziev's credit, he showed noted efforts of improvement in his last fight with Gaethje from both pacing and grappling perspectives – which could come in handy against Bahamondes. I've been a big fan of Bahamondes and his improvements when it comes to both counterstriking and counter-grappling. That said, I'm not sure he can count on commanding the grappling exchanges with a national champion in combat sambo like Fiziev. I also suspect that Fiziev's speed, bodywork and ability to counter in combination will also provide problems for Bahamondes from a stylistic perspective. It's a dangerous fight for Fiziev, but I'll officially side with him to either stop Bahamondes with a body kick or beat him on the scorecards. Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes UFC Baku odds Despite the oddsmakers initially opening the Azerbaijan representative as the favorite, public money has flipped the betting line, listing Bahamondes -124 and Fiziev +102 via FanDuel. Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes UFC Baku start time, how to watch As the co-main event, Fiziev and Bahamondes are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 5:10 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+.
New York Post
an hour ago
- New York Post
Former ESPN host unleashes scathing Stephen A. Smith attack
Former ESPN host Jason Fitz didn't like Stephen A. Smith's comments about Memphis — and called him out for it. Fitz, who worked on ESPN's digital side and the radio, claimed that Smith is often unprepared during an appearance during an appearance on 92.9 ESPN in Memphis on Tuesday following the 'First Take' host's controversial comments on the Tennessee city. Smith said on the show that while Memphis is a great sports town some NBA starts don't feel safe there., 'But there's an element there where cats like Jimmy Butler and others don't feel it's the safest environment. I'm talking to the local authorities in Memphis,' Smith said. 'You've got to clean some of that stuff up because it's dissuasive to NBA players. They have talked about it. I know. They've told me.' Fitz responded by calling out Smith's preparedness. 'Stephen A. is one of the least prepared people I've ever worked with in my entire career,' Fitz said. 3 Jason Fitz attends the Allstate Party at the Playoff, hosted by ESPN & CFP on January 7, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. Getty Images for ESPN & CFP Fitz mentioned how he often worked 80-hour weeks during his final fall with the network before being laid off in 2023, questioning how Smith would have time to generate informed opinions on Memphis. 'Now, Stephen A. is busier than I ever was. We see him making content 24/7,' Fitz said. 'So, I guess my question to people in Memphis is: how much Memphis do you think he's actually absorbed? And I mean all of it. Memphis culture, Memphis basketball. 3 Stephen A. Smith reports from the sideline during Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Western Conference finals on May 26, 2025 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NBAE via Getty Images 'What the hell does Stephen A. know about the city of Memphis? And the answer to that is only what his friends or his people on his phone, tweet him, or text him. That's all he knows. He is so separated from actual reality. What does he know?' Fitz also claimed that Smith 'eats and breathes stereotypes,' while also saying that he likely has not watched a Grizzlies game in years. 'Stephen A. walks and talks and lives and eats and breathes stereotypes,' Fitz said. 'That's all he knows… Frankly, he has to talk about the city of Memphis because my guy hasn't watched a single Memphis basketball game in probably three years.' 3 Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (22) shoots the ball past Oklahoma City Thunder guard Isaiah Joe (11) during the first half in Game 4 of an NBA first-round playoff series Saturday, April 26, 2025, in Memphis, Tenn. AP 'Stephen A. has a staff and info group that feeds him information so that he can have somewhat informed opinions, and they're usually not because he works too hard to actually watch any games,' added Fitz. Memphis Mayor Paul Young extended Smith an invitation to the city, and the ESPN personality accepted. 'Deeply appreciate your words and the sentiments that came with them,' Smith wrote on X on Thursday. 'Progress is what life is all about and when it comes to Memphis -where some dear friends of mine reside − I wish for nothing less. The people deserve nothing less. 'So with that said, I accept your invitation to come to your city, as your guest. Let's make it happen. I'm looking forward to it.'
San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Bay Area sports calendar, June 20-22
BASEBALL BOXING GOLF MOTOR SPORTS WNBA SATURDAY BASEBALL 9a Detroit at Tampa Bay MLB Net 1p Boston at Giants NBCSBA (680, 104.5) 1p Texas at Pittsburgh FS1 4p N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia Channel 2 Channel 40 4:35p Minors: Glacier Ridge at Ballers (860) 7p Washington at L.A. Dodgers MLB Net 7p Cleveland at A's NBCSCA (960) COLLEGE BASEBALL College World Series 4p Finals, Game 1: Coastal Carolina vs. LSU ESPN ESPNU FOOTBALL Noon Women's NFC Championship: Washington at Texas ESPN2 1p CFL: Ottawa at Calgary CBSSN 4p CFL: Winnipeg at British Columbia CBSSN GOLF HORSE RACING 6a Royal Ascot Channel 11 Channel 3 Channel 8 9:30a America's Day At the Races FS1 MOTOR SPORTS MAJOR LEAGUE RUGBY PREMIER LACROSSE LEAGUE 1p New York at Philadelphia ESPN 4p Boston at Maryland FS1 SOCCER 4p CONCACAF Gold Cup: Curaçao vs. Canada FS1 4:30p NWSL: Bay FC at NJ/NY Gotham Ion 5p USL: Oakland Roots at Birmingham Channel 36 6p FIFA Club World Cup: River Plate vs. Monterrey TBS TruTV 7p CONCACAF Gold Cup: Honduras vs. El Salvador FS1 SOFTBALL VOLLEYBALL WNBA 10a Phoenix at Chicago Channel 7 Channel 10 5p Los Angeles at Minnesota NBA TV SUNDAY BASEBALL 8:30a Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees Roku 10:30a Texas at Pittsburgh MLB Net 1p Boston at Giants NBCSBA (680, 104.5) 1p Cleveland at A's NBCSCA (960) 1:05p Minors: Glacier Ridge at Ballers (860) 1:30p Kansas City at San Diego, joined in progress MLB Net 4p N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia ESPN ESPN2 BASKETBALL 10a BIG3: Baltimore Channel 5 Channel 13 Channel 46 12:30p BIG3: Baltimore Vice COLLEGE WORLD SERIES 11:30a Finals, Game 2: Coastal Carolina vs. LSU Channel 7 Channel 10 ESPNU FOOTBALL 2:30p AF1 playoffs: SW Kansas at Nasville Vice 5p IFL: Arizona at Bay Area Panthers NBCSCA (1050) GOLF HORSE RACING 9:30a America's Day at the Races FS1 11a America's Day at the Races FS2 1p America's Day at the Races FS1 MOTOR SPORTS NBA FINALS 5p Game 7: Indiana at Oklahoma City (if necessary) Channel 7 Channel 10 (1050) PREMIER LACROSSE LEAGUE 9a Utah at Denver Channel 7 Channel 10 SOCCER SOFTBALL VOLLEYBALL WNBA Noon Indiana at Las Vegas ESPN 4p New York at Seattle NBA TV 5:30p Connecticut at Valkyries Channel 44 (95.7)
