Australia warned it could 'never replicate' at risk AUKUS deal as Anthony Albanese prepares for crucial talks with Donald Trump

A foreign policy expert has warned Australia and the United Kingdom could "never replicate" AUKUS without support from the United States ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's crucial meeting with President Donald Trump.
Concerns about President Trump's approach to AUKUS were raised to new heights following the announcement last week his administration was launching a review into the the trilateral pact.
Set to be led by AUKUS sceptic Elbridge Colby, the review has stoked fears the US could walk away from the agreement in what would come as a huge blow to Australia's defence and strategic plan.
Mr Albanese is now facing significant pressure to convince President Trump of AUKUS' value, with many analysts expecting the US leader will pressure his Australian counterpart on defence spending when the two meet on the sidelines of the G7 on Wednesday.
British Foreign Policy Group senior research and programs manager Eliza Keogh warned there was a "real possibility" President Trump would pull out of the pact, with the Australian and UK governments now jointly scrambling to keep the deal alive.
"AUKUS offers clear strategic advantages for the US - from regional proximity to China, to access to Australian facilities for docking and servicing - and there is a possibility the review could just be the Trump administration increasing pressure on Australia to boost its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP," she told Skynews.com.au.
"Nevertheless, there is a real possibility the US could withdraw from AUKUS, particularly with AUKUS sceptic Elbridge Colby leading the review.
"The Trump administration's tendency to prioritise short-term political calculations over strategic foresight means that it may opt to withdraw from AUKUS, despite its long-term focus on countering the rise of China, as short term interests - predominantly keeping US-built submarines at home - will win out."
Several analysts and observers have highlighted flagging US submarine manufacturing as a potential dealbreaker, with the nation at risk of missing its goal to increase the size of its fleet to 66 vessels by 2049.
Debate over the provision of Virginia class submarines to Australia - a stop-gap measure to ensure Australia remains well equipped while AUKUS vessels are constructed - has raged for almost two years and has drawn scrutiny from both Democrats and Republicans.
Some have suggested President Trump may demand Australia increase the $3 billion it will send to the US to help offset production costs for the submarines in order to ensure the deal remains on tract, although Mr Albanese ruled out that possibility in 2023 and appears unlikely to change course.
Instead, the Prime Minister is expected to emphasise the in-kind benefits AUKUS provides the US during his sit down with President Trump, while also pointing to Labor's $57 billion boost to defence spending over the next decade.
According to Ms Keogh, highlighting Australia's role in deterring Chinese ambitions in the Indo-Pacific is likely to be another effective tactic given the US' desire to see "partners stepping up in the region".
She also offered a more radical solution, which, while likely to appease President Trump, could also leave Australia dependent on the US until the first AUKUS vessels come online in the 2030s.
"If they are looking to placate Trump, UK and Australian negotiators could look to renegotiate parts of the deal, including offering to loan submarines back to the US if necessary," Ms Keogh said.
It remains to be seen what, if any concessions, Mr Albanese makes to the US President, but the foreign policy expert warned it would be impossible to replace AUKUS should Australia and the UK fail to maintain American support.
"The UK and Australia have already agreed to negotiate a bilateral AUKUS treaty, but this could never replicate the scale and weight of the trilateral agreement," Ms Keogh said.
Publicly both nations have sought to downplay the risk of US withdrawal, with Britain's Labour government highlighting the fact it held a similar review after it came to power.
However, Ms Keogh explained officials were privately "very nervous" about how the Trump administration would proceed.
The UK has made a flurry of announcements, including a pointed commitment to boost its own submarine production in coming years, as it attempts to demonstrate it is serious about raising its defence spend.
Meanwhile, the Australian government has taken a different approach, pushing back against US calls to increase spending and insisting its current strategic plans are adequate.
This has prompted intense criticism from a number of leading defence experts, who warn Australia is both weaker and less capable then in previous decades while also at risk of jeopardising its relationship with its most significant defence partner.

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