How Autonomous VTOL Aircraft Can Be The Next Transformative Technology
Matthew Graczyk is CEO of PteroDynamics Inc., an innovation leader in autonomous VTOL aircraft systems.
Some technologies, like smartphones, have a transformative impact on entire sectors of the economy and our everyday lives. Advances in autonomous unmanned aerial systems (UAS), or drones, are driving the rapidly emerging advanced air mobility sector to the precipice of such a transformation.
While drones on the battlefield and the promise of air taxis have dominated the headlines, many people fail to understand the extent to which the technology and design of the drone—such as autonomous vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft—will prove to be a major catalyst for innovation and transformation.
As with any big change, before a new technology is embraced, it is often met with apprehension and resistance. The wave of drone sightings over New Jersey in 2024 highlights public concerns and the work ahead for government agencies worldwide to ensure UAS aircraft are safe, accepted and profitable for operators.
What will it take for advanced air mobility to take off? History offers a window into the future. By examining some commonalities between revolutionary technologies that have spurred broader economic and societal transformation, we can better imagine the transformative impact of today's advances in autonomous VTOL aircraft.
What Transformative Technologies Have In Common
Transformative technologies like the locomotive, jet engine or helicopter are innovation catalysts that fuel future economic and societal value. They solve problems in new ways and spawn novel solutions, ideas and entirely new business models. Here's what transformative technologies have in common:
• They remove friction and solve problems more efficiently. Ride-hailing platforms exemplify this by offering simple, personalized transportation solutions.
• They become ubiquitous in our everyday lives. Over 2 billion people worldwide will use ride-hailing services in 2029, and global revenue is expected to top $175 billion in 2025.
• They have an expansive downstream impact on economic growth. Transformative technologies are catalysts. Silicon chip technology led to new, creative solutions, businesses and expansive economic growth that the industry pioneers probably could only have imagined.
We are at an inflection point with advanced air mobility technology, and new generations of VTOL UAS aircraft will likely be transformative. Advanced designs combine the efficiency, payload-to-weight capacity, speed and range of fixed-wing aircraft with a helicopter's use-case flexibility and vertical takeoff and landing capabilities. They can take off from just about any location (no runway needed) and fly autonomously to deliver cargo to remote regions with little or no infrastructure, even in harsh weather and difficult environments, including to ships underway at sea.
Traditional VTOL designs—including helicopters—struggle to complete these difficult missions efficiently and economically because of the complexity of these aircraft and the inherent trade-offs between VTOL functionality and range, speed and endurance.
Continued advancements in autonomous VTOL UAS design will unlock new markets that are otherwise difficult and costly to serve with traditional manned airplanes, helicopters and boats, benefitting sectors like maritime logistics, public safety, energy and defense.
What Makes Contemporary VTOL Designs Transformative
Although the industry is still in the early stages of evolution, the latest VTOL drone designs and supporting technologies signal that the criteria for transformative technology will likely soon be met.
Automating the delivery of high-value payloads to hard-to-reach locations removes friction, reduces costs and frees capital resources. Pulling humans out of the loop allows personnel to focus on other high-value jobs and can exponentially reduce safety risks.
A great example is U.S. Navy maritime critical repair cargo delivery and resupply missions. Today, Navy MH-60 helicopters and V-22 tilt-rotor aircraft fly missions to ensure warships have what they need for combat readiness. Data from Navy Sealift Command Casualty Reports show that 90% of these parts weigh less than 50 pounds. Costs associated with the crew, maintenance, and wear and tear add up quickly on these complex and expensive aircraft.
In my role at PteroDynamics, which is working with the Navy on its Blue Water UAS (BWUAS) program to address these costs and inefficiencies, I've observed how smaller autonomous VTOL aircraft are being tested to reduce reliance on costly manned systems for critical resupply missions.
New economic growth and business models are emblematic of transformative technologies. According to a report by PwC, drones completed 5 million deliveries to consumers in 2024, moving $251 million in goods. Within a decade, the number of B2C deliveries is projected to soar to 808 million, and the value of goods shipped by drones is expected to top $65 billion.
Beyond supply chains, high-value missions that are difficult and expensive to undertake with manned helicopters, planes and boats stand to benefit from VTOL UAS technology as well. The offshore oil and gas industry spent $3.29 billion on helicopter services in 2024. With greater endurance and range and a substantially lower cost, new autonomous UAS could handle more jobs, from scheduled and ad hoc deliveries to surveying, pipeline inspection and monitoring. Other sectors may benefit from new capabilities that have yet to be imagined.
Turning Vision Into Reality
Transformative technologies are innovation incubators with far-reaching impacts. For autonomous VTOL UAS aircraft to achieve transformative status like the jet engine, they must deliver economic value and a clear path to profitability for operators.
Success means teaming with customers and operators on solutions that move the needle on business economics and offer pathways to entirely new business models. Being pragmatic is a good starting point to build compounding success. A litmus test we use is whether the mission involves time-sensitive delivery of important cargo to hard-to-reach destinations with no runways, which would otherwise be expensive or resource-intensive to accomplish. These are tough missions, and there is no substitute for close collaboration with customers.
With new catalyst technologies, it is typically the end users who find creative new ways to leverage it. My view is that customers know their business best and will discover how to use autonomous VTOL aircraft in ways we can't imagine. Letting operators tinker and experiment is very important. As they push the envelope, it is important to meet new performance requirements, creating a virtuous cycle of innovation.
Finally, progress and public acceptance move in evolutionary steps in a regulated industry like aviation, even if the underlying technology is revolutionary. History demonstrates a clear way forward working with government regulators that make guidelines and ensure safety. Commercial aviation took off in the United States in the 1930s when the government invested in air mail service and established formal regulatory oversight in the 1920s.
Our industry must embrace—not resist—collaboration with international regulatory bodies like the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Safety Administration (EASA) to modernize rules and ensure safe operation of autonomous UAS aircraft for operators and the public.
Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only community for world-class CIOs, CTOs and technology executives. Do I qualify?
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You should consult with a licensed professional for advice concerning your specific situation.
