Gold price outlook: MCX gold rate falls to ₹99,000 per 10 grams amid Israel-Iran war. What should be trading strategy?
Gold prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) ended flat on Friday, tracking a muted trend in the international bullion prices, after US President Donald Trump delayed a decision on entering the Israel-Iran war.
MCX gold rate ended marginally lower by ₹ 13, or 0.01%, at ₹ 99,096 per 10 grams on Friday. During the session, gold prices hit an intraday high of ₹ 99,198, and touched a low of ₹ 98,431 level. For the week, MCX gold price declined over 1%.
MCX silver prices gained ₹ 51, or 0.05%, to close at ₹ 1,06,275 per kg. Silver rates hit an intraday high of ₹ 1,06,695, and a low of ₹ 1,05,053.
In the global markets, spot gold prices fell 0.2% to $3,365.51 an ounce, while the index was down 1.8% for the week. US gold futures shed 0.7% to $3,385.50. Spot silver prices fell 1.1% to $35.98 per ounce, and were down 0.9% for the week.
'Gold prices dropped as investors balanced expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts against escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A firm US dollar and elevated bond yields continue to pressure gold,' said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.
President Trump is expected to decide within the next two weeks whether the United States will intervene in the ongoing Israel-Iran air conflict, the White House stated on Thursday. Gold, traditionally regarded as a safe-haven asset, often gains during periods of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, US Fed policymakers project a total of 50 basis points rate cuts for 2025. However, they have slightly moderated the trajectory of easing, now expecting just one 25-basis-point cut in both 2026 and 2027. A high interest rate environment tends to weigh on gold prices, as the metal does not offer any yield.
'While Fed Governor Christopher Waller opened the door to potential rate cuts as early as July, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious, data-driven stance. This divergence has created uncertainty, limiting gold's upside even amid geopolitical stress,' Trivedi said.
Next week, focus will remain on the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly any signs of US military involvement. Moreover, Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress will also be on investors' radar along with a slew of macroeconomic data that will influence the gold prices.
'While geopolitical tensions support gold in the short term, markets may remain reactive and headline-driven. Investors will look for any shift toward a more dovish or hawkish tone, especially in light of recent mixed comments from Fed officials,' said Jigar Trivedi.
Additionally, any sustained strength in the greenback could keep bullion prices under pressure, despite safe-haven flows, he added.
'MCX Gold August futures find immediate support near ₹ 97,000 per 10 grams. With macro headwinds in play, we maintain a sell-on-rise strategy, especially around technical resistance zones,' said Trivedi.
Gold prices remain caught between opposing forces: geopolitical risks providing support, and robust US data along with Fed policy uncertainty capping gains. Trivedi advises traders to stay cautious ahead of key economic events, with the potential for breakout or consolidation depending on how these narratives unfold.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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