Mospi mulls frequent expenditure surveys to track consumption patterns

The last base year revision for these key macro-economic indicators undertaken by MoSPI kicked in from January 2015
New Delhi
Listen to This Article
In a bid to better track changing consumption patterns, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi) is considering more frequent household consumption expenditure surveys (HCES) and base-year revisions for the consumer price index (CPI), sources told Business Standard.
'Consumption patterns in the country are rapidly changing, with growing incomes and diversification in consumer products. To better capture them, it is important to conduct HCES more frequently. We are considering having HCES every three years and a revision in the CPI base year every four years. Things are still at a preliminary stage because the base revision exercise is still

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Business Standard

an hour ago

• Business Standard

All-India consumer price inflation for agricultural labourers softens further to 2.84% in Apr-25

The All-India Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (CPI-AL) and Rural Labourers (CPI-RL) (Base: 1986-87=100) decreased by 2 points and 1 point for the month of May 2025, to stand at 1305 and 1319 points, respectively. The year-on-year inflation rates based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL for May 2025 were recorded at 2.84% and 2.97%, respectively, down sharply compared to 7.00% and 7.02% in May 2024. The corresponding figures for April 2025 stood at 3.48% for CPI-AL and 3.53% for CPI-RL.

Time of India

2 hours ago

• Time of India

World markets on oil watch as Middle East tensions flare

Brent crude oil is up around 20 per cent so far in June, and set for its biggest monthly jump since 2020 as Israel/Iran tensions flare-up. Although relatively contained, the rise has not gone unnoticed just three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices that ramped up global inflation and sparked aggressive interest rate hikes. Here's a look at what rising oil means for world markets. How high? Oil prices have crept rather than surged higher with investors taking comfort from no noticeable interruption to oil flows. Still, pay attention. The premium of first-month Brent crude futures contract to that for delivery six months later this week rose to a six-month high as investors priced in an increased chance of disruptions to Middle East supply . It remained elevated on Friday. Trading at around $77 a barrel, oil is below 2022's $139 high, but is nearing pain points. "If oil goes into the $80-100 range and stays there, that jeopardizes the global economy," said ABN AMRO Solutions CIO Christophe Boucher. "We are just below that threshold." Supply shock? Traders have an eye on shipping, often seen as a key energy bellwether. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran. Disruption here could push oil above $100, analysts say. Blocked shipping routes would compound any supply shock. Though the big oil producing countries that make up OPEC+ have promised an extra 1.2 million barrels a day, none has yet been shipped or delivered, said hedge fund Svelland Capital director, Nadia Martin Wiggen. Blocked shipping routes would mean this expected supply would not come into the international market, she said. She's watching freight rates closely. "So far, freight rates show that China, with the world's biggest spare refining capability, hasn't started panic buying oil on supply concerns," said Wiggen. "Once China starts to buy, freight rates will rise, and world's energy prices will follow." No oil, no growth Rising oil prices raise worries because they can lift near-term inflation and hurt economic growth by squeezing consumption. High oil prices work like a tax, say economists, especially for net energy importers such as Japan and Europe as oil is hard to substitute in the short term. Lombard Odier's chief economist Samy Chaar said that sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel would shave 1 per cent off global economic growth and boost inflation by 1 per cent. Unease rose after Israel launched its strike on Iran a week ago. An initial rally in safe-haven bonds soon evaporated as focus turned to the inflationary impact of higher oil. The euro zone five-year, five-year forward, a closely-watched gauge of market inflation expectations, climbed to its highest level in almost a month. "In the United States $75 oil is enough to, if it's sustained, boost our CPI forecast by about half a percent by the year end, to go from 3 to 3.5 per cent," said RBC chief economist Frances Donald. Turkey, India, Pakistan, Morocco and much of eastern Europe where oil is heavily imported are set to be hit hardest by the rise in crude prices. Those that supply it; Gulf countries, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela and to some degree Brazil, Colombia and Mexico should get a boost to their coffers, analysts say. Oh king dollar A shift is taking place in the dollar. In recent years the currency has risen when oil rallies, but it has had only limited support from oil's latest rise, with a weekly gain of just 0.4 per cent. Analysts expect the dollar's downward trend to resume, given expectations of limited Middle East risks for now and underlying bearish sentiment. It has weakened around 9 per cent so far this year against other major currencies, hurt by economic uncertainty and concern about the reliability of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner. No doubt, a weaker dollar heals the sting from higher oil, which is priced in dollars. "For oil-importing countries, the dollar's fall offers some relief, easing the impact of soaring oil prices and mitigating wider economic strain," UniCredit said. Complacent stock? In the absence of an oil-supply shock, world stocks are happy to stick near all-time highs. "Investors want to look past this until there's a reason to believe this will be a much larger regional conflict," said Osman Ali, Goldman Sach's Asset Management's global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies. Gulf markets sold off on the initial news, then stabilised somewhat, helped by the higher oil prices. U.S. and European energy shares, particularly oil and gas companies have outperformed , as have defence stocks. Israeli stocks, up 6 per cent in a week, have been the most notable outperformer. Stocks of oil consumers have been the worst hit, airlines stand out.

Mint

6 hours ago

• Mint

Indian stock market: Israel-Iran war to India-US trade deal— 5 factors that hold keys to trend reversal on Dalal Street

The Indian stock market has been rangebound for almost a month amid heightened geopolitical tensions, Trump's tariff-related uncertainties and stretched valuations. While the benchmark Nifty 50 is up about 1 per cent for June so far, it has stayed in the range of 24,470 to 25,200, failing to hold and extend gains. The domestic market is torn between contrasting triggers, keeping it range-bound. Key macro tailwinds exist on the domestic front. India's GDP is expected to rise about 6-6.5 per cent in FY26, while inflation could fall below 4 per cent. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, after the June policy meeting, lowered the CPI (consumer price index)-based inflation estimates for FY26 to 3.7 per cent from 4 per cent projected earlier while maintaining the real GDP growth estimates at 6.5 per cent for the year. The World Bank expects the Indian economy to grow at 6.3 per cent in FY26. With over 6 per cent growth, India would be the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Moreover, the World Bank expects the Indian economy to grow slightly faster, at 6.5 per cent in FY27 and 6.7 per cent in FY28. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdown and uncertainty about US President Donald Trump's tariff policies are the key headwinds for the domestic market. Even though domestic consumption remains the dominating theme for the Indian economy, the domestic market cannot completely remain immune to global developments. Let's take a look at five key factors that hold the keys to trend reversal on Dalal Street: The end of the Israel-Iran war could significantly influence market sentiment globally. The Indian stock market may break out on the upside after the two warring countries agree to resolve their issues through talks. "The Nifty, which has been trading within the 24,500-25,000 range for about a month now, is likely to remain within this range in the near term. The upper side of the range will be broken only on news of de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict or an abrupt end to the war," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. Experts at Kotak Institutional Equities believe that the Iran-Israel conflict has raised concerns about India's hitherto solid macroeconomic position and highlighted the higher geopolitical risks in the new world order. "The emergence and escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict may have negative consequences for the Indian economy and market, especially as the rich valuations of the Indian market, sectors and stocks leave very little scope for any negative developments," said Kotak. Experts point out that the Indian stock market has maintained its uptrend despite geopolitical instability. A relief on this front can propel the market to new highs. 'Geopolitical tensions increasingly appear to be the new normal. It began with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, over two years ago, followed by the Israel-Hamas war. In between, there were flare-ups between India and Pakistan, and now tensions are escalating between Israel and Iran. Yet, despite these global headwinds, the Indian stock market has continued its upward trajectory. In a more stable geopolitical environment, the market may soar to unprecedented highs,' said Jaspreet Singh Arora, Chief Investment Officer at Equentis Wealth Advisory Services. The US-India trade deal will also be a key factor for the domestic market. India hopes that both countries will finalise a trade deal before Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' kick in on July 9. "Before the end of July, a trade deal between India and the US should be finalised. The negotiations are on. Many major nations are expected to finalise their deals by the end of next month. This would be a major trigger for the markets," said Arora. US Fed meeting: Rate cuts unlikely; can Powell's hawkish tone upset trend reversal buzz in Indian stock market? (This is a developing story. Please check back for fresh updates.) Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.