Why Siddaramaiah is still in driver's seat amid setbacks – caste survey to stampede
One month after the Congress government in Karnataka marked its second anniversary, a key question doing the rounds in the political circles is whether Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's hold on power has diminished in the wake of a series of setbacks, such as the Bengaluru stampede incident and the cancellation of the state caste survey.
An analysis of the political situation and various developments, however, indicate that Siddaramaiah still remains a dominant political force that neither his party Congress nor the Opposition could ignore.
An astute politician and OBC stalwart, Siddaramaiah has taken several steps to firewall himself from the repercussions of some recent setbacks.
On June 12, the Siddaramaiah Cabinet decided to junk the caste survey which was conducted in 2015 during the previous term of the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government to gauge the social, economic and educational situation of various communities in the state, especially the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The survey, which was only unveiled at the Cabinet meeting on April 11 this year, was seen as a key to deliver social justice – the main plank of the Congress as well as Siddaramaiah in the state.
The June 12 Cabinet decision came following the Congress high command's direction to the Siddaramaiah dispensation to re-enumerate the castes on account of objections from many caste groups. 'We will do whatever the high command says. It is not my decision. It is not the decision of the Cabinet. It is not the decision of our government. It is a decision of the high command. They have told us to go for re-enumeration,' Siddaramaiah said after the meeting called by the Congress top brass in Delhi on June 10.
The CM later attributed the Cabinet move scrapping the caste survey to a provision in the Karnataka State Commission for Backward Classes Act, 1995, which mandates a fresh survey of backward castes after every 10 years.
While the cancellation of one of the CM's main social justice projects was seen as a setback, it was also considered a 'reprieve' for him since Siddaramaiah had himself, in his first tenure, considered the caste survey a political hot potato that could damage the Congress's fortunes in the state.
'The recent decision of the BJP-led Centre to include a caste count within the purview of the population Census provided the first reprieve for Siddaramaiah over rejecting the 2015 caste survey,' a state government official said. 'It gave an opportunity to the Congress to buy time on the caste survey,' the official said.
The Congress central leadership's direction to the Siddaramaiah government to go for a fresh caste count came amid growing tensions among several groups in Karnataka — including the dominant Lingayats and Vokkaligas, and even sections of the OBCs — over the findings of lower numbers for them in the 2015 survey.
'In a state where the promise of social justice has long formed the ideological glue of the Congress party, the recent handling of internal reservations and the caste survey report has been nothing short of a political disaster. What could have been a moment of progressive reform has instead devolved into factionalism, mistrust, and caste polarisation,' a Congress leader said prior to the June 12 Cabinet decision.
Among the primary sources of angst over the caste survey report among Congress leaders was its findings about an increase in numbers and backwardness of two communities that are considered to be Siddaramaiah's core vote base — the OBC Kuruba group to which Siddaramaiah belongs and the Muslim community.
'Siddaramaiah, known for his AHINDA (minorities, backwards and Dalits) platform, has been accused of skewing the recommendations of the caste survey report to disproportionately favour his own Kuruba community. The proposed 12% reservation for Kurubas without a clear and evidence-based rationale has enraged other OBC groups,' a Congress leader said. 'Nowhere in the public domain has the government clarified the metrics or socio-economic criteria used to justify this move. This blatant caste favouritism has fractured the larger OBC solidarity.'
After the cancellation of the 2015 caste survey, Siddaramaiah himself said, 'Both the dominant and the weak communities have expressed objections to the survey report.'
A silver lining for Siddaramaiah amid the caste survey fiasco is the point that several Karnataka CMs had in the past rejected reports of the Backward Classes Commissions due to objections from various dominant and backward communities.
'The opposition to the caste surveys in Karnataka is not new. It has been done since the 1960s with the Naganagouda Commission, Havanur Commission, Venkataswamy Commission and the O Chinnappa Reddy Commission being opposed. Every survey has been opposed by the dominant communities is what we have seen,' Congress leader B K Hariprasad, who belongs to the OBC Billava group, said about the rejection of the 2015 survey.
However, Siddaramaiah still appears to have managed to consolidate his own base through the leakage of the 2015 caste survey report.
'Siddaramaiah has now cemented his position as the main leader of the Kuruba and Muslim communities in Karnataka, who are spread across every Assembly constituency and together make up nearly 20% of the state's population,' said an observer. 'Siddaramaiah who already had the support of a majority of 135 Congress MLAs has now strengthened his position further since all MLAs are dependent on the support of Kurubas and Muslims at the constituency level.'
Apart from the Backward Commission's recommendation for a significant hike in quotas for Kurubas and Muslims in the 2015 survey, Siddaramaiah is also seen to have established a hold on these communities by 'favouring' them in various decisions and government postings.
Earlier this year, the Karnataka government passed a legislation to provide 4% reservation for Muslims in government contracts with a value of up to Rs 2 crore. The law has been rejected twice by the Governor and is still awaiting implementation.
On June 19, the Siddaramaiah Cabinet also decided to increase the quota for Muslims in state housing projects from 10% to 15%. 'Muslims have been found to be among the highest homeless communities,' state law minister H K Patil said. The move is perceived as another bid for consolidation of Muslim support for Siddaramaiah besides sending out a signal about the Congress's support for the minorities — not just to Karnataka but also to poll-bound states like Bihar.
Siddaramaiah suffered another blow on June 4 when 11 people were killed in a stampede during a celebration by the fans of the Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) club at the M Chinnaswamy Cricket Stadium in Bengaluru over its first-ever IPL title win.
The stampede occurred even as Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM D K Shivakumar were holding a felicitation event for the RCB at the Vidhana Soudha, the government headquarters. There have been accusations of the stampede being caused due to administrative and systemic failures involving even the top echelons of the government.
To tackle the row, Siddaramaiah suspended five police officers, including the then Bengaluru police commissioner, and ordered two separate judicial inquiries (apart from the police probe) into the incident.
The decision to suspend senior IPS officer B Dayananda, who had largely served a two-year stint as a tough Bengaluru police commissioner without any blemish, over the stampede dented the police morale, but it did not have any political bearing on the CM or the Congress.
'I have acted on the basis of prima facie evidence of dereliction of duty by police officers… What is the action that BJP and JDS have been demanding? They wanted a judicial inquiry. We have constituted a judicial inquiry. All those who have committed mistakes, we have acted against them. What mistake has the government committed?' Siddaramaiah asked.
He also said the stampede deaths hurt the Congress government. 'This incident should not have happened. After I became the Chief Minister, no such incidents had occurred. It has happened due to the mistakes of the officials, is what is prima facie evident. We have taken action. I have been hurt by the incident. The whole government is hurt by the incident,' he said.
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