Bulls will look to use raw power to take down Leinster in URC final
The South African podcaster Harry Jones recently posted a video to social media detailing the country's rugby philosophy.
A fan, whom Jones labels the Potchefstroom Poet, lays it out for those who have not been initiated in the ways of the 'Bok: 'We f**k them up in front, easy. We make our first-time tackles. And then, we spread the ball. Easy.
No nuance in how the Bulls can sack Croke Park this week: back to brutal basics.
~ the Potchefstroom Poet
— Harry Jones (@haribaldijones)
'Rugby is not hard.'
Libations may have influenced this particular bard when dumbing down the rugby DNA of an entire nation. But he isn't wrong.
READ MORE
Twice in the last four years, Jake White and his Bulls have faced Leinster in URC knockout games. Twice they have ended Leo Cullen and friends' seasons. The secret sauce? See our lairy lyricist.
The Bulls laid siege to Leinster's forward pack in a way which has become stereotypical of South African sides. The Irish province couldn't cope. Should the Bulls revert to type? If they do, are Leinster better equipped to deal with the onslaught?
Against the Sharks last week, the Bulls did not just rely on set-piece, forward dominance and an astute kicking game
Let's start by succeeding where our muse failed; putting some statistical meat on the bones of the Bulls' success. They fall into the South African blueprint of looking to play without the ball, kicking aplenty and being ruthlessly efficient when they do earn opportunities to strike.
In last year's semi-final at Loftus Versfeld, the Bulls made 112 carries to Leinster's 131. They kicked 42 times in open play, Leinster 37. The South African side's kick-to-pass ratio was 1:3. Leinster's was 1:5. The kicking game worked, the Bulls earning 59 per cent of the game's territory. Just 34 per cent of their possession came in their own half.
Despite the deficiency in attacking volume, the Bulls made almost the same number of metres post-contact as Leinster (231 vs 236) while working more line breaks (eight vs six).
The identity of those doing the attacking damage is telling. For most sides, the 'best' runners, those who make the most metres, are found in the back three. They often have acres of space to run back kicks against faraway defensive lines.
Not the Bulls. In that 2024 semi-final, their top metre-maker was number eight Cameron Hanekom. Their outhalf, Johan Goosen, was number two. Third was another backrow, Elrigh Louw. The most effective back three player was wing Devon Williams, the team's fourth best metre-maker. He made less than half the yardage of Hanekom (39 metres vs 83). By contrast, Leinster's top four carriers that day were James Lowe, Jimmy O'Brien, Jamie Osborne and Caelan Doris.
The Bulls do spread the ball, as our poet suggested, but only after the big boys do the main damage up front. They have the lowest figure in the URC for number of phases which travel beyond the second receiver (6.1 per cent).
The one area not yet referenced is the set-piece. Unsurprisingly, the Bulls love a scrum. Videos of their frontrow battle with the Sharks last week have gone viral. They have historically targeted Leinster's dead ball platform. With good reason. This year, 68.3 per cent of the province's tries have come from set-piece, joint highest in the URC.
Next week final will be a good one.
But I worry about is the lack of reward for strong scrums in the comp. Bulls will definitely be strong against Leinster next week in the scrum & if they don't get rewarded, could affect the outcome of the game
— Scoop 🐻 ☕️ (@Rugby_Scoop)
In 2024, the Bulls held Leinster to a 67 per cent scrum success rate. In 2022, the lineout was the problem, Leinster ending with a success rate of 78 per cent.
In that 2022 upset at the RDS, unsurprisingly the Bulls outkicked Leinster 31-25. Less predictable was Leinster still earning 70 per cent of territory while only holding 48 per cent of possession. Then, Leinster's profligacy was more of an issue than where the game was played. They coughed up possession 18 times (compared to 13 in 2024). True to form, though, the Bulls' best runner at the RDS was their number eight, Elrigh Louw. Leinster's was Jimmy O'Brien.
Here's where things get interesting. Against the Sharks last week, the Bulls did not just rely on set-piece, forward dominance and an astute kicking game. They still kicked plenty (once for every 2.9 passes, more often than their victory over Leinster last year) and let the opposition dominate the ball.
Yet they also threw 13 offloads. Four of their top five metre-makers were backs, with wing Sebastian de Klerk leading the way. They also scored an ambitious try off a de Klerk cross-kick.
What has just happened 😱
Vodacom
— BKT United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial)
The smart money is for these flourishes to remain precisely that, rather than the dominant gameplan. Can Leinster counteract?
They back themselves against anyone when it comes to the strength of the forward pack. In that semi-final defeat last year, Leinster made more dominant tackles (and by default had a better dominant tackle percentage) than a South African side which values strong defence above all else.
More recently, Leinster's dominant tackle (9.6 per game) and carry (37.4 per cent) rate leave them mid-table in the global professional rankings this season. The attacking figure is better than the Bulls, the defensive figure worse.
Should the Bulls revert to type? If they do, are Leinster better equipped to deal with the onslaught?
These stats do include all Leinster games this year, including earlier URC run-outs with weaker XVs. It remains to be seen, though, how strong Leinster will be on Saturday: Caelan Doris is already out, while Josh van der Flier, Tadhg Furlong, Garry Ringrose and Hugo Keenan all remain doubts.
Set-piece wise, Leinster are once again middle of the global pack for this season's lineout (83.5 per cent) and scrum (90.2) success rates. The Bulls beat them at both. It remains to be seen if Leinster's improved total of scrum penalties this year - 54, eight behind the Bulls on 62 - represents enough of an uptick.
Historical figures give us a fairly solid idea of how the Bulls think they can beat Leinster. More recent numbers present one or two kernels of comfort for Leinster. Other figures could be used to draw a more negative conclusion.
As always with damned stats - which have a propensity to lie - we'll have to wait until the game itself to see which argument is proved right.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Times
an hour ago
- Irish Times
Dublin win over Limerick may be the greatest upset in championship history
Predictably, X was aflame from Saturday evening on, with hurling fans from Leinster revelling in a side from their province beating one from Munster – and hurling fans from Munster (outside Limerick ) not shy about rubbing it in either. Kilkenny's four-time All-Ireland winner Paul Murphy probably said it best when he tweeted: 'That is one of the greatest victories I've ever seen! Commiserations to Limerick but this day belongs to Dublin! Incredible!!!!' That is one of the greatest victories I've ever seen! Commiserations to Limerick but this day belongs to Dublin! Incredible!!!! — Paul Murphy (@PaulMurphykk) As for where the win ranks, it may be the greatest upset in the history of the championship. Some will point to Antrim's victory over Offaly in the 1989 All-Ireland semi-final but the Ulster side had beaten Offaly twice in that year's National League and were given a reasonable chance by the press ('Antrim on the brink – Grafters ready to pounce on unsuspecting giants' read the headline in the Irish Press on the day before that game). Dublin were available at odds of 16/1 with one bookmaker, and not a single columnist or pundit called the upset. READ MORE 'Limerick always come back. They're seldom surprised, rarely ambushed and they'll roll on tomorrow,' was Donal Óg Cusack's prediction – and it was hard to blame him. On RTÉ television, former Dublin hurler Liam Rushe put the result in context: 'To think this morning I was at training and people were asking me would we cover the 12-point handicap.' McShane will soon be back, just not for Tyrone Cathal McShane (29) has linked up with Strabane Athletic. Photograph: Andrew Paton/Inpho Cathal McShane, the 2019 All-Star and 2021 All-Ireland SFC medallist, who opted out of the Tyrone panel back in May having actually started their championship opener, will soon be back in action – but in a different code. McShane (29) has linked up with Strabane Athletic, who will play in the third-tier Premier Intermediate league for the first time in 2025/26 after gaining promotion from the Ballymena & Provincial Football League. 'Cathal will add to the already strong team of forwards at the club,' Strabane Athletic said in a social media post, with McShane adding: 'I'm delighted to be signing with Strabane Athletic, a club I've played with in the past and always kept a close eye on, it was brilliant to see the recent success, a real credit to everyone involved.' 'From a personal note I'm really excited to get back playing and do whatever it takes to help drive the club forward and to reach the heights it's capable of,' McShane said. Five years ago, McShane was offered a two-year contract with Australian Football League side Adelaide Crows but turned it down to focus on his Tyrone career. Unlucky for Derry, 13 Division 1 teams proves too many Donegal's Oisín Gallen scores a point despite the efforts of Louth's Tommy Durnin and Dan Corcoran. Photograph: Lorcan Doherty/Inpho Derry , as manager Paddy Tally pointed out after their group stage exit, have played 13 matches this season and all were against Division 1 sides. That seems particularly tough when one considers Louth's run , which ended on Sunday at the hands of Donegal in Ballybofey. The Wee County were in Division 2 of the National League, so naturally didn't play any top-flight opposition there. In the Leinster Championship, which they won, they defeated Division 3 sides Laois and Kildare before seeing off Meath , who were third in Division 2, in the final. [ Football prelims had a whiff of predictability, but it's anyone's guess from here to the final Opens in new window ] Louth's All-Ireland journey saw them take on Monaghan , Down and Roscommon , all of whom played Division 2 football this Spring, with Donegal the first Division 1 side they met all year. Another example came with Cavan versus Kerry – the match was the Breffnimen's fifth in this championship against Division 1 opponents while the Kingdom are through to the quarter-finals without having faced any. The 'Donegal Piper' The Donegal Piper is a permanent fixture at the county's matches. Photograph: Bryan Keane/Inpho At half-time in the Donegal and Louth game, 'the Donegal Piper' made an appearance, with footage of him chatting with GAA+ pundits Pádraig O'Hora and Michael Meehan. The 'famous' Donegal Piper was going around hyping up the crowd shouting 'Up Donegal', host Gráinne McElwain explained. The unnamed piper is, of course, Christy Murray, a native of Raphoe and a permanent fixture at the county's matches. Murray, who wears full green and gold garb to matches, retired earlier this year after many years teaching music to children. 'It was around the 2000 period when Donegal were starting to go well, I started off and I didn't have the uniform at that stage. It was just the pipes and a bandanna; I was almost like Rambo,' Murray told Donegal Live. Word of Mouth 'What a finish by Galway because a lot of their leaders [are absent] – Shane Walsh is not on the pitch, [Cillian] McDaid is not on the pitch, [John] Maher is not on the pitch, Paul Conroy is not on the pitch and [Damien] Comer.' Peter Canavan, on RTÉ radio, was impressed with how Galway closed it out against Down. By the Numbers: 188 Senior appearances Michael Murphy has made for Donegal.
The Irish Sun
10 hours ago
- The Irish Sun
‘We were on a little boat with oars' – Ger Brennan admits Donegal storm sank Louth's summer
GER BRENNAN knew Louth would need a bigger boat when Donegal smelt blood in Ballybofey. The 2 Donegal sailed past Leinster champions Louth on Sunday afternoon 2 Louth manager Ger Brennan admitted his side were no match for the Ulster men But A devastating spell of 1-7 on the bounce blew Louth out of the water as Ciarán Thompson marked his 50th championship appearance with his first championship goal and hometown hero Oisín Gallen fired 0-5. Two-pointers from Michael Langan and Michael Murphy along with Peter Lynch's black card left the Wee County clinging for life before they gradually sunk out of the championship. And Brennan admits the high of winning their first Leinster title in 68 years caught up with them as they lost three out of their next four games to bow out. READ MORE ON GAA He said: 'It was a perfect storm. Unfortunately, we were the ones on the little boat with the oars. We couldn't survive it. Donegal just steamed through on a cruise liner and punished us for every error. 'Credit to them, very efficient, and they're a superb team. Second half, just the tempo, intensity, just upped it everywhere. 'Unfortunately, despite our best efforts, a great bunch of fellas, we just weren't able to live with it. 'In terms of a quick reflection as a management and a group of players, I think the winning of a Leinster final after 68 years, going into the All-Ireland Series took more of us than we realised.' Most read in GAA Football Louth were right in the game at the break thanks to 0-4 from the brilliant Burns and some poor shooting from the hosts. Donegal fired five wides and saw three shots drop short in the opening 35 alone, as their efficiency in front of goal let them down badly in a game of chess in the Ballybofey heat. 'Just in time for Father's Day' - Dublin GAA legends welcome the birth of precious baby daughter Defensive tactics prevailed early on as Brendan McCole put the shackles on Sam Mulroy, and Donal McKenny did the same to Murphy at the other end. But despite Donegal's poor shooting, Conor O'Donnell's goal was the difference right after Dara McDonnell's super score made it 0-6 apiece. Murphy rose highest to flick on Shaun Patton's bullet restart to Gallen, and Ciaran Moore's fist pass played the Carndonagh man clean through to smash home. It was harsh on a Louth team asking serious questions despite falling 0-5 to 0-1 behind on 17 minutes. Peadar Mogan, O'Donnell, Murphy, Oisín Gallen and the brilliant Finbarr Roarty all scored before Gallen fired a sitter wide when Michael Langan played him clean through. The next three scores read Burns, Burns, Burns as Donegal fell into Louth's burning ring of fire and Ryan McHugh and Thompson added to the misses at the river end. Gallen ended a 14-minute wait for a score to banish his missed goal chance, but Louth kept coming at them as McDonnell's boomer levelled it. With 32 minutes on the clock, Murphy made his mark when he got a hand to Patton's kick-out and Moore read O'Donnell's run to perfection for him to lash home. Burns had the final say of the half with his fourth from play, before a different Donegal emerged. Hugh McFadden began to lord the skies when he replaced Jason McGee, and his team-mates all moved up a gear to power home. Roarty, Mogan, Eoghan Bán Gallagher and Moore ran at their opponents constantly as Thompson and Murphy began to pull the strings inside. Gallen and Langan fired over before McFadden won the next kick-out for Murphy's epic two-pointer. It opened up a six-point gap before their second goal when Gallen fed Thompson and he lashed home from distance to make it 2-11 to 0-9. Louth were all at sea as Lynch was black carded for a late hit on Murphy and the relentless hosts kept turning the screw. Langan boomed over another two-pointer as Conor O'Donnell, Gallen, Daire Ó Baoill and Shane O'Donnell followed suit to finish the devastating 1-7 flurry as McGuinness rolled in the cavalry from the bench. Mulroy thought he had scored on the double at the other end, but Patton got a hand to it to reduce it to one as they failed to stay in the game. Donegal skipper Paddy McBrearty failed to score, but created the next 0-3 for Niall O'Donnell, Ó Baoill and the brilliant Caolan McColgan before McFadden completed the rout on the hooter. And McGuinness beamed as 12 of his players hit the mark to fire them back to Croker against Monaghan or Meath this weekend. He said: 'In terms of the team, it's very important now that we dial-in very quickly to the next challenge which is going to be Monaghan or Meath and we wait for that draw to come and then we can start the ball rolling again for another week. 'Very happy, very happy obviously, one game more than we wanted but at the same time we're happy to take the game. 'Obviously loads and bits of pieces to work on as well, particularly in the first half in terms of decision making and stuff. 'We were clinical and done a good job to get over the line and get over the line with 20 minutes to spare basically and give us a chance to get some players on the pitch as well that have been doing well in training. 'Odhran McFadden-Ferry has been doing well in training, Niall O'Donnell coming back into it again. Daire Ó Baoill I thought was very very good when he went on and Patrick when he went on as well, and I think Patrick might have had three assists. 'Whenever we got beat against Tyrone we knew we'd be in this situation potentially and we were targeting these three weekends. So we're delighted we have an opportunity at the third game now.' DONEGAL 2-22 LOUTH 0-12 DONEGAL: S Patton, F Roarty 0-2, B McCole, P Mogan 0-1; R McHugh, EB Gallagher, C Moore; J McGee, M Langan 0-3, 1tp; C McColgan 0-1, C Thompson 1-0, S O'Donnell 0-1; C O'Donnell 1-2, M Murphy 0-3, 1f, 1 tp, O Gallen 0-5. Subs: H McFadden 0-1 for McGee HT; D Ó Baoill 0-2 for McHugh 49; P McBrearty for Murphy 51, N O'Donnell 0-1 for C O'Donnell 54, O McFadden-Ferry for Gallagher 54 LOUTH: N McDonnell; D Nally, D Campbell, D McKenny; E Carolan, P Lynch 0-1, C Lennon 0-1; T Durnin, D McDonnell 0-1; C McKeever, C Downey 0-1, D Corcoran; P Matthews 0-1, S Mulroy 0-3, 1f, R Burns 0-4. Subs: C Grimes for Carolan HT; S Callaghan for Durnin 48, R Walsh for Matthews 51, C McArdle for Lennon 53, C Byrne for Burns 57 REFEREE: B Cassidy (Derry)
Irish Times
11 hours ago
- Irish Times
Football prelims had a whiff of predictability, but it's anyone's guess from here to the final
Eight teams left, seven games to decide the summer's football . The weekend was like Willy Wonka's Everlasting Gobstopper machine, rocking and groaning and steaming away, only for the result to somehow be both underwhelming and exciting at the same time. The four teams that were supposed to win their preliminary quarter-finals got the job done. The quarter-final octet is who you said it would be. Kerry , Dublin , Galway and Donegal expelled varying levels of sweat in their toiling. After Kerry (easily) and the Dubs (doggedly) disposed of Cavan and Cork on Saturday, Sunday saw Donegal (in a stroll) and Galway (in a dogfight) get past Louth and Down. The Monday morning draw will decide things from here, if it hasn't happened by the time you read this. The only thing we know for sure is that Armagh will play Kerry. Whatever next weekend throws up, the games will have a job on their hands living up to Galway's win over Down in Newry . Pádraic Joyce's side came through by 2-26 to 3-21, capping a run of three games in four weeks on the road against Ulster teams without defeat. However ready the other seven teams are for Croke Park next week, nobody will feel more battle-hardened. READ MORE Galway manager Pádraic Joyce with his Down counterpart, Conor Laverty, after Sunday's absorbing All-Ireland SFC preliminary quarter-final at Páirc Esler. Photograph: James Lawlor/Inpho 'A lot of aspects we'd be really happy with,' Joyce said afterwards. 'Obviously a lot of aspects we wouldn't be happy with and the amount of scores we conceded. But it was that kind of game anyway; it was going to be open. We couldn't have it every way. Happy to get out of here with the win, to be honest. 'People are saying we don't play for 70 minutes. I think we got a good performance there for the full 70 minutes overall. You're never going to get things your own way. There was two [teams] knocked out yesterday and two knocked out today, so we're down to the last eight. That's where we're at. 'We know where we are, we're happy enough to be there. We've work to do and we just can't perform like that next week, whoever we are playing in the quarter-finals. If we concede that kind of score, we're going to be in trouble.' That they did was as much a function of Down's attitude as any shortcoming on Galway's part. Carried on the back of a stunning display from Odhran Murdock, Conor Laverty's team contributed to another stunning game. They will play in Division Three next year but they're no third-tier team. 'I would have a vision of where I want Down to go,' Laverty said afterwards. 'We don't talk about winning Sam Maguires; we talk about [how] we want to get to the top bracket of teams. I think the top six teams in Ireland . . . probably even maybe top eight at the moment, could all feel that they could win Sam Maguire.' That's where this thing is at. Of the eight teams remaining, six have been in the last four finals. Monaghan and Meath are the odd pair out but neither will feel any foreboding at whoever comes out of the draw. QF Draw — Stats and Solos (@StatsAndSolos) Donegal were the last men in, on the back of a 2-22 to 0-12 win over Louth in Ballybofey. Oisin Gallen found his form after a rocky start to the championship and they were able to call Michael Murphy and Ryan McHugh ashore long before the end to save them for next weekend. Ciarán Thompson celebrates a goal during Donegal's comprehensive All-Ireland SFC preliminary quarter-final win against Louth in Ballybofey, Co Donegal. Photograph: Lorcan Doherty/Inpho But when it comes right down to it, Donegal have already lost to Tyrone, they've been taken to the last minute of extra-time by Armagh and they only had a kick of a ball to spare over Monaghan. They're no big bad wolf. Nobody is. 'We had a lot of mistakes in the first half,' Jim McGuinness told GAA+ afterwards. 'We made a lot of mistakes, we made it difficult for ourselves at times, dropped an awful lot of balls short. Once you start doing that it becomes like basketball, you're up and down the pitch and playing under fatigue. So we've a good few things to look at and work on but obviously very, very happy to get over the line. 'It's been the case since the first throw-in of the first game of the league, everybody's been saying how competitive Division One was. It was incredibly competitive and everybody could beat everybody on a given day. 'Obviously the way Down have progressed through the championship, the way Monaghan have progressed, how Meath have progressed – they're playing like Division One teams. So it's very, very competitive. We know that. But at the same time, we just wanted to be in that draw and we're where we want to be.' Same as all the others.
