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Thailand's economy teeters as political turmoil threatens recovery efforts
Thailand's economy teeters as political turmoil threatens recovery efforts

Reuters

time11 minutes ago

  • Reuters

Thailand's economy teeters as political turmoil threatens recovery efforts

BANGKOK, June 20 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is already on the ropes. Consumption has remained tepid despite a government stimulus programme, few of its economic engines are firing, and uncertainty wrought by U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs means that the Thai economy could grow just over 1% this year. Now, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy faces a fresh challenge: a new round of political chaos that can bring down Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra or her ruling Pheu Thai party. "We are currently in a period of economic downturn, with many issues affecting us," Visit Limlurcha, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, told Reuters. "This could make things even more complicated." The most significant short-term concern is the passage of a 3.78 trillion baht ($115 billion) budget for the 2026 fiscal year, which starts on October 1, that must pass through parliament over the next few months. That process could get stalled if Paetongtarn, who is under siege for her handling of a festering border row with neighbouring Cambodia, dissolves parliament and triggers fresh elections. "If parliament is dissolved before the budget is passed, the process will be delayed significantly," said Prakit Siriwattanaket, managing director of Merchant Partners Asset Management. Thailand's economy has lagged regional peers as it struggles under high household debt and borrowing costs, and sluggish demand from China, which is also a key tourism market. It expanded 2.5% last year, and growth could be further halved this year due to U.S. tariffs, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said last month. Thailand's stock market (.SETI), opens new tab has been the worst performing bourse in Asia so far this year, down 23.4%. Industrial sentiment also hit its lowest in eight months in May, even as consumer confidence dropped to a 27-month low. There is a clear need to press ahead with government spending, which has dropped by over 38% annually during April-May 2025, OCBC economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Jonathan Ng said in a report on Thursday, warning of a "double whammy" for the economy if both government expenditure and exports weaken. Amid the ongoing tumult, Paetongtarn may be able to hang on to her premiership and a coalition led by her Pheu Thai party could retain its majority, albeit in a weaker position compared to its previous grip on the parliament. Such an arrangement will prolong political instability and raise the spectre of street protests, which have been part of previous crises and could hit one of Thailand's key remaining economic engines: tourism. "I'm worried. I don't want the situation to cause people to take to the streets," Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, President of Thai Hotels Association, which represents around 1,000 hospitality establishments, told Reuters. "If they take to the streets, it will hit tourism." Activists - including those who have in the past agitated against Paetongtarn's father, the divisive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra - met on Friday to plan a major protest next week, and demanded the prime minister's resignation. A government lacking full authority may also struggle in ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, which has threatened to impose a 36% tariff rate on imports from Thailand, said Natapon Khamthakrue, an analyst at Yuanta Securities. "The United States certainly would not want to talk to a government without full power or with few votes," he said. Some business chambers and analysts are, nonetheless, holding out hope that a political resolution can be found quickly, minimising damage to the Thai economy, which has been rattled by multiple coups in the last eight decades, including two against governments led by the Shinawatra family. "Although the economy is no stranger to political uncertainty," OCBC's economists said, "the timing could not be more inconvenient considering external headwinds." ($1 = 32.7800 baht)

UK retail sales slump in May after ‘dismal' month for supermarkets
UK retail sales slump in May after ‘dismal' month for supermarkets

South Wales Guardian

time11 minutes ago

  • South Wales Guardian

UK retail sales slump in May after ‘dismal' month for supermarkets

Food shops faced the biggest drop in monthly spending in four years. The Office for National Statistics said the total volume of retail sales fell by 2.7% in May. This compared with a 1.3% rise in April, which was revised up from a previous estimate of 1.2% for the month. May's overall retail sales came in considerably below the 0.7% decline that most economists had been expecting for the month. It was also the biggest monthly fall since December 2023. The ONS said it was a 'dismal' month for supermarkets with food sales falling sharply after a jump in April. ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said: 'Retail sales fell sharply in May with their largest monthly fall since the end of 2023. 'This was mainly due to a dismal month for food retailers, especially supermarkets, following strong sales in April. 'Feedback suggested reduced purchases for alcohol and tobacco with customers choosing to make cutbacks.' The volume of sales in food stores dropped by 5% in May – the largest monthly fall since May 2021. This was mainly because of people buying less in supermarkets, with retailers citing inflation and customers making cutbacks, the ONS said. It comes amid rising food inflation across the UK, with the price of items such as chocolate, coffee, cheese and meat spiking last month. The monthly decline for household goods was 2.5%, and for clothing and footwear shops it was 1.8%. Ms Finselbach added that clothing and homeware stores were reporting reduced footfall in May. Retail sales fell across all sectors in May 2025. This was the largest monthly fall since December 2023. Retail sales volumes have fallen 2.7% in May 2025, following a rise of 1.3% in April 2025 (revised up from 1.2%). Read more ➡️ — Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) June 20, 2025 A drop in demand for DIY items last month came after sunny weather in April boosted home improvement projects. Some electricals sold well in May, which experts linked to strong pre-sales before the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2. Despite May's decline, retail sales volumes rose by 0.8% across the three months to May, compared with the three months to February. Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at research consultancy Retail Economics, said: 'May's retail performance underlines a shift in consumer behaviour, with households putting value at the centre of spending decisions and pulling back on non-essential purchases. 'The cost of living remains the dominant concern for households. 'Households are deferring spending on full-price fashion, big ticket home items and other discretionary goods, instead prioritising travel and experiences into the summer.'

World markets on oil watch as Middle East tensions flare
World markets on oil watch as Middle East tensions flare

Reuters

time15 minutes ago

  • Reuters

World markets on oil watch as Middle East tensions flare

LONDON, June 20(Reuters) - Brent crude oil is up around 20% so far in June, and set for its biggest monthly jump since 2020 as Israel/Iran tensions flare-up. Although relatively contained, the rise has not gone unnoticed just three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices that ramped up global inflation and sparked aggressive interest rate hikes. Here's a look at what rising oil means for world markets. Oil prices have crept rather than surged higher with investors taking comfort from no noticeable interruption to oil flows. Still, pay attention. The premium of first-month Brent crude futures contract to that for delivery six months later this week rose to a six-month high as investors priced in an increased chance of disruptions to Middle East supply . It remained elevated on Friday. Trading at around $77 a barrel , oil is below 2022's $139 high, but is nearing pain points. "If oil goes into the $80-100 range and stays there, that jeopardizes the global economy," said ABN AMRO Solutions CIO Christophe Boucher. "We are just below that threshold." Traders have an eye on shipping, often seen as a key energy bellwether. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran. Disruption here could push oil above $100, analysts say. Blocked shipping routes would compound any supply shock. Though the big oil producing countries that make up OPEC+ have promised an extra 1.2 million barrels a day, none has yet been shipped or delivered, said hedge fund Svelland Capital director, Nadia Martin Wiggen. Blocked shipping routes would mean this expected supply would not come into the international market, she said. She's watching freight rates closely. "So far, freight rates show that China, with the world's biggest spare refining capability, hasn't started panic buying oil on supply concerns," said Wiggen. "Once China starts to buy, freight rates will rise, and world's energy prices will follow." Rising oil prices raise worries because they can lift near-term inflation and hurt economic growth by squeezing consumption. High oil prices work like a tax, say economists, especially for net energy importers such as Japan and Europe as oil is hard to substitute in the short term. Lombard Odier's chief economist Samy Chaar said that sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel would shave 1% off global economic growth and boost inflation by 1%. Unease rose after Israel launched its strike on Iran a week ago. An initial rally in safe-haven bonds soon evaporated as focus turned to the inflationary impact of higher oil. The euro zone five-year, five-year forward, a closely-watched gauge of market inflation expectations, climbed to its highest level in almost a month . "In the United States $75 oil is enough to, if it's sustained, boost our CPI forecast by about half a percent by the year end, to go from 3 to 3.5%," said RBC chief economist Frances Donald. Turkey, India, Pakistan, Morocco and much of eastern Europe where oil is heavily imported are set to be hit hardest by the rise in crude prices. Those that supply it; Gulf countries, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela and to some degree Brazil, Colombia and Mexico should get a boost to their coffers, analysts say. A shift is taking place in the dollar. In recent years the currency has risen when oil rallies, but it has had only limited support from oil's latest rise, with a weekly gain of just 0.4% . Analysts expect the dollar's downward trend to resume, given expectations of limited Middle East risks for now and underlying bearish sentiment. It has weakened around 9% so far this year against other major currencies, hurt by economic uncertainty and concern about the reliability of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner. No doubt, a weaker dollar heals the sting from higher oil, which is priced in dollars. "For oil-importing countries, the dollar's fall offers some relief, easing the impact of soaring oil prices and mitigating wider economic strain," UniCredit said. In the absence of an oil-supply shock, world stocks are happy to stick near all-time highs. "Investors want to look past this until there's a reason to believe this will be a much larger regional conflict," said Osman Ali, Goldman Sach's Asset Management's global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies. Gulf markets sold off on the initial news, then stabilised somewhat, helped by the higher oil prices. U.S. and European energy shares, particularly oil and gas companies have outperformed (.SPNY), opens new tab, (.SXEP), opens new tab, as have defence stocks. (.SXPARO), opens new tab Israeli stocks, (.TA125), opens new tab up 6% in a week, have been the most notable outperformer. Stocks of oil consumers have been the worst hit, airlines stand out.

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