Race-by-race tips and previews for Wednesday's meeting at Warwick Farm
Track heavy 9 and rail true.
RACE 1
3. Just Feelin' Lucky is well placed third up after a dominant fresh win at Newcastle when heavily backed before edged out in deeper grade at this track. Right at home in the ground from a low draw, and the 3kg claiming jockey gets her right back in at the weights. 5. Alabama Fox won two straight up to BM64 level before faltering in consecutive and tougher races without a lot of luck on her side. Back in grade from a much lower draw, with the leading rider taking over. 1. Fear No Evil is progressive, having won her first two, and then was beaten less than a length in the Wagga Guineas last start. This is tougher, but she'll roll forward in suitable conditions. 7. Kilkenny is lightly raced, anddestroyed her fillies and mares maiden opposition at Kembla second up, although this is a significant step up. While she's bred to handle heavy going, is still untested. 6. Willie Oppa is an improver over further second up, and clear best of the rest.
How to play it: Just Feelin' Lucky to win.
RACE 2
11. Nazwah is a Capitalist filly from the Peter Snowden stable, and looms as the one to beat behind two progressive trials. Easily won the latest in soft ground with plenty in hand after travelling wide, and presents way above average. Similarly, Exceedance filly 9. Change My Address has her first start for the John Sargent yard behind two eye-catching trials, bolting in the most recent in heavy going. Another debutant, 10. Marinera, from the Bjorn Baker stable, has won both lead-up trials on rain-affected ground and draws the inside. 4. Jet, which went under as an odds-on favourite in open country class on debut, and 6. Master Of The Air, first up for the leading metropolitan stable off a forward heavy-track trial and with a gear change, add value into exotic plays.
How to play it: Nazwah to win.
RACE 3
1. Mansiere is a tough Victorian four-year-old by Brave Smash primed to snap a long wait for a third career win in ground he thrives. Was never far away in deeper races last spring, and while he was well beaten first up in a farcical three-horse race at Warrnambool, the winner is smart having then bolted in in a group 3 feature at Morphettville. The 3kg claim is a big plus in these conditions, and two of his three career wins so far have come on heavy ground. 2. Livin' Thing resumed with a narrow and tough win at Kembla, but shaping under the odds sneaking up in the weights against metro opposition. 7. Big Red Tequila must be included despite a wide draw, having roared home to win her maiden in heavy ground at only her third start. 5. First Person, an improving mare whose best form is all on soft and heavy tracks, and 10. Ready To Rocket, third up and drawn inside, are on the next line and both capable of running into the money.
How to play it: Mansiere to win.
RACE 4
6. Junebug is an improving and sparingly raced on-speed mare that has been in and around the money in some handy provincial races. Gets a timely drop in grade here in a race lacking depth, drawn to get a cosy run and loves these conditions. 1. Black Run looks a big threat getting to this longer trip third up. 3. Up And Under has worked home late in his past couple, and gets a key jockey change third up also over a more suitably longer journey. 8. Kosuke is a hard-fit and provincial-based colt that looks better placed here than his past couple, while 7. Knights Armour was fair to the line through plenty of traffic at huge odds in the Wagga Cup, and more at home on rain-affected ground.
How to play it: Junebug to win.
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