Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7 Predictions: Odds, expert picks, recent stats, trends and best bets for June 22
On Sunday, June 22, the Indiana Pacers (50-32) and Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are all set to square off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
Indiana evened up the series with a 108-91 win to give us the best two words in sports: Game 7. The 17-point win over OKC reached leads of 26 and more in the third and fourth quarters as the Pacers controlled the entirety of the game outside the first few minutes.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the game in scoring with 21 points, while Obi Toppin totaled 20 for Indiana. No starter played more than 32 minutes for either team, so we should see both squads rested in Game 7.
Six different Pacers scored double-figures in Game 6, including TJ McConnell who added 12 points, 9 assists, and 6 rebounds to his Finals resume. For OKC, only Jalen Williams (16) and SGA (21) scored more than 11 points for the Thunder. The Pacers forced SGA in a career-high 8 turnovers in Game 6 and the Thunder shot 8-of-30 from three (26.7%), so it'll be interesting to see how that carries over into a home Game 7 with mounting pressure.
We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Pacers vs. Thunder live
Date: Sunday, June 22, 2025
Time: 8:00PM EST
Site: Paycom Center
City: Oklahoma City, OK
Network/Streaming: ESPN / ABC
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Game odds for Pacers vs. Thunder
The latest odds as of Saturday:
Odds: Pacers (+235), Thunder (-285)
Spread: Thunder -7.5
Over/Under: 214.5 points
That gives the Pacers an implied team point total of 103.5, and the Thunder 110.5.
Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports' Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!
Expert picks & predictions for Sunday's Pacers vs. Thunder game
'One Under, among many, that I like for Game 7 is a fade on Isaiah Hartenstein. Hartenstein's PRA prop is at 13.5 (+100) or 14.5 (-115), depending where you are playing and I think it's a hair too high.
Hartenstein hit 14 PRA in garbage time of Game 6 and was benched at the half in favor of Alex Caruso, which didn't last long. Hartenstein hasn't fit the tempo of this series and his offensive scoring ability may be a liability as four or fewer points in four of six games isn't encouraging. Go Under on the big fella.
If you want value on either the Thunder ML or Pacers ML, then you should look at betting on the MVP market. For OKC, most will say Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-205) has the award locked up if the Thunder win, but I put my money on Jalen Williams at +2700 and +600 during Games 5 and 6, and I still like the position and current value at +1000 to +1100.
For the Pacers, the pick is Pascal Siakam at +370. I played Siakam at +900 after Game 4 and think he is a shoo-in for the MVP if Indiana wins Game 7. Tyrese Haliburton's odds have dropped to +1100, but it's obvious that his calf injury has kept him limited during the series, while that has not been the case for Siakam.'
'Tyrese Haliburton finished with 14 points, 5 assists and 2 steals in 23 minutes while nursing a calf injury to energize the Pacers to the Game 6 win. It's obvious that Haliburton is giving it his all and he would die on the court for this team. If he gets 30 minutes or so in Game 7, it's hard for me not to see Hali going for 15-plus points. '
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today's Pacers & Thunder game:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Indiana Pacers at +7.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 214.5.
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions pagefrom NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today's calendar!
Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Pacers vs. Thunder on Sunday
If Oklahoma City closes as a favorite of -7.5 or higher, the Thunder will be the largest Game 7 favorites since the 1966 Boston Celtics (-8 vs Lakers).
The three largest Game 7 favorites in history, -6.5, -8 and -9 — all failed to cover winning by four or fewer points to go 0-3 ATS, but 3-0 on the ML.
The last four NBA Finals Game 7's went Under the total dating back to 2005.
No team in a Game 7 of the NBA Finals has scored 100 or more points in the past 25 years.
The Thunder are 1-0 in Game 7's this postseason, beating the Nuggets in OKC, 125-93.
The Pacers are 1-0 in. Game 7's this postseason, beating the Knicks in Indiana, 125-108.
Pascal Siakam is 5-1 to the Over on his assists prop
TJ McConnell is 6-0 to the Over on his points, assists and points + assists props
Lu Dort is 3-0 to the Over 0.5 assists at home in the Finals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 31, 34, and 38 points at home in the Finals
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
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