Keeping up with UP: Can BJP penetrate the impregnable fortress of Mukhtar Ansari?

There's a legend about two gangster-turned-politicians of eastern UP. It goes like this: Mukhtar Ansari's deadly rivalry with Brijesh Singh dates back to his college days. He was fond of cricket and once had a tussle with Singh's family during a game. Mukhtar's friend was killed, triggering an unending rivalry in the region.
The region may be on the boil again if the Mau assembly by-polls are held.
I heard the story about the cricket rivalry in 2007, when Mukhtar, his MP brother Afzal Ansari and two other family members were in jail in connection with the Krishnanand Rai murder case. Rai was a close aide of Brijesh Singh and the enmity had led to gang wars and spread to the political arena. Mukhtar Ansari, who mostly remained in jail since 2005, died in prison in March 2024. He had 65 criminal cases lodged against him, including 14 cases of murder. On the other hand, Brijesh Singh was released from jail after 13 years in prison in August, 2022.
Mukhtar Ansari belonged to an illustrious family but entered the world of crime at the age of 15. His grandfather Mukhtar Ahmad Ansari was a freedom fighter who is said to have worked closely with Mahatma Gandhi. A row of photographs in Ansari's house in Yusufpur, Mohammadabad, bear testimony to the illustrious legacy.
Now with the conviction of Ansari's son Abbas in a 2022 hate speech case and the subsequent disqualification of his membership of the UP assembly, there is intense speculation in the state's political circles about the BJP strategising its first ever win from the Muslim-dominated constituency. Abbas had won the seat in 2022 on the ticket of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), then an ally of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and now a partner of the ruling BJP.
Abbas has filed an appeal against the verdict of the MP/MLA court. His uncle Afzal Ansari, an SP MP, is hopeful. 'Yes, the seat has been declared vacant but we are hopeful of justice from the courts as Abbas had said nothing to disturb the communal amity in the area. Along with the appeal, an application has also been filed,' Afzal Ansari said.
Since the first election in Mau in 1957 and until 1996, when Mukhtar won the seat for the first time on the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ticket, nominees from almost all political parties, including the Congress, Communist Party of India (CPI), BSP and Janata Party, have represented the constituency in the assembly except for the BJP though the party's fore-runner, the Bharatiya Jan Sangh, had won the seat in 1967.
Mukhtar won five consecutive elections until 2017 but, in 2022, Mayawati refused to give him the party ticket. His son Abbas Ansari had then won the seat on the SBSP ticket and stands disqualified today though he is hoping for a reprieve from the courts. Discussions have already started in the public domain about the future of the Ansari family and what will happen if Brijesh Singh's nominee enters the fray.
Of the 14 MLAs elected from the Muslim- dominated seat, nine were Muslims. However, the BJP leadership does not fear the community's rejection as the party bagged four Muslim- dominated seats in recent by-polls – Kundarki in Moradabad, Rampur Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha seats, the stronghold of Azam Khan, and Azamgarh, the seat once held by Mulayam Singh Yadav. For each win, they adopted a different strategy.
Asked if the party had started strategising for the Mau seat, BJP's Muslim Morcha president Kunwar Basit Ali said, 'We are also waiting for the court verdict, but the party works round the clock and they always have viable plans.'
Mau is known for its saree industry. Some traders hold Mukhtar responsible for Mau's sufferings and many have closed their shops. There are over 50,000 power looms and 80,000 weavers in the area. In 2007, when Mukhtar was alive, they had said that Mukhtar's 'boys' spread rumours and fanned fear every election by claiming that if he loses, Muslims will face a tough time. What now?
How BJP won Muslim-dominated seats
The BJP had won the Muslim-dominated Kundarki seat after 31 years in November 2024. The BJP's Hindu candidate Ramveer Upadhaya wore a skull cap and had started befriending Muslims much before the elections. He defeated SP nominee Mohammad Rizwan by a huge margin of over 1.28 lakh votes amid allegations of bogus voting. The Muslim vote was divided as upper caste Muslims, mainly Jat, Gujar, Pathan, Syed and Tyagi, mostly businessmen, bought peace for themselves.
Similarly, the BJP wrested the prime Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat from the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the 2022 by-poll. Again, they fielded a Hindu candidate Dinesh Lal Yadav 'Nirahua' who got 3.12 lakh votes, defeating the SP candidate Dharmendra Yadav by about 8000 votes. Playing spoilsport here was the BSP whose Muslim candidate Shah Alam had polled 2.66 lakh votes. The division of votes helped the BJP.
In the June 2022 by-poll, the BJP had also won the Rampur Lok Sabha seat followed by their strategic win in the Rampur assembly seats in December 2022 by-poll. One of the assembly seats of Suar was won by its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal). The BJP had never hoisted its flag on the seat since 1952.

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