Vintz: Cyber has become integral to modern military operations
Steve Vintz, Co-CEO & CFO at Tenable, warns that conflicts like Israel-Iran escalate cyber threats globally, urging companies to boost exposure management to prevent disruptive attacks.
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31 minutes ago
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The week in stocks: Empire, Algoma Steel, and why the case for the trade in war 'keeps getting stronger'
Every weekend, the Financial Post breaks down the most interesting developments in this week's world of investing, from top performers to surprising analyst calls and stocks you should have on your radar. Here's this week's edition. BMO Capital Markets raised its price target for Empire Co. Ltd. (EMP/A) after the grocery chain, which owns such brands as Sobeys, IGA, FreshCo, Foodland and Farm Boy, reported earnings that beat analyst estimates. Earnings per share came in at 74 cents for the quarter ending May 3, beating analysts' estimate of 71 cents. Empire's profits increased 16.1 per cent to $173 million from $149 million in the same quarter a year ago. Tamy Chen, a consumer analyst at BMO, raised her price target to $55 from $53 in late May. 'We are comfortable with our continued assumption for annual gross margin expansion of 20 basis points,' she said in a note. 'For now, we are hesitant to assume further sequential acceleration in same-store sales.' Chen said she would like to see continued improvement in operating costs because that will help drive EPS growth. John Zamparo, an analyst at the Bank of Nova Scotia, raised his target to $62 from $49, while Mark Petrie at CIBC Capital Markets raised his to $59 from $55. The case for the defence trade 'keeps getting stronger' as Israel and Iran continue to trade fire, David Rosenberg, head of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said in a note this week, but that's not the only tailwind. 'Military budgets are expanding sharply worldwide, and industry backlogs and production schedules are in acceleration mode,' he said. For example, the Pentagon's budget is just shy of US$1 trillion, and global military spending last year rose nearly 10 per cent to more than US$2.7 trillion as 36 countries were embroiled in armed conflict. The S&P 500's aerospace and defence index is up almost 30 per cent over the last year. Its members include: General Electric Co. (GE) RTX Corp. (RTX) Boeing Co. (BA) Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) General Dynamics Corp. (GD) Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) L3 Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX) Textron Inc. (TXT) Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII) 'I wish we lived in a peaceful world where we didn't feel compelled to have this top the list of our highest-conviction ideas, but these are the cards we have been dealt, and our job is to help clients make money in a prudent fashion,' Rosenberg said. He said investors who had already committed to the defence sector are reaping the rewards of United States President Donald Trump pushing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to meet their target of spending two per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence. NATO is now discussing raising that target to five per cent of GDP. But Rosenberg said the aerospace and defence trade isn't just about hardware. 'You can't just talk about defence today by discussing F-35 jets and missiles; this is a sector inextricably linked to the burgeoning demand for advanced cybersecurity solutions,' he said. Rosenberg said the defence file has transformed from a cyclical bet into a 'structural growth story' akin to major economic shifts, including the rise of technology in the 1990s and the commodities supercycle of the 2000s. Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) got a boost this week when the federal government announced new measures to help protect Canada's steel industry. 'We believe the newly announced government measures to support the Canadian steel industry are a positive development for Algoma,' James McGarragle, an equity analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, said in a note. Algoma is down 33 per cent this year as Trump's tariff war has hit the manufacturer based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum exports currently sit at 50 per cent after rising earlier this month from an initially implemented 25 per cent levy. The steps Ottawa has taken to assist the industry help, but McGarragle said the major 'catalyst' for the sector and Algoma is a resolution to the trade dispute with the U.S.. RBC has a price target of $8 for Algoma, as does BMO Capital Markets. Analysts at Stifel Canada and Cormark Securities Inc. have price targets of $13 and $16, respectively. Algoma is currently trading at $9.43. The week in stocks: Dollarama still cashing in and silver gets buffed up The week in stocks: Lululemon gets stretched and is Tesla a TACO trade candidate? • Email: gmvsuhanic@ Are you an investor looking for stock ideas and market insight? Sign up for the weekly FP Investor Newsletter here to get the best of the Financial Post's investing news, analysis and expert commentary straight to your inbox. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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an hour ago
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The Weekend: Markets on edge as Trump ponders US involvement in Israel-Iran war
The fighting continued to rage in the Middle East this week as Israel intensified its attack on Iran's nuclear capabilities. As European foreign ministers met with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva in an attempt to end hostilities, investors were on tenterhooks about the possibility of the US becoming directly involved. The threat of American intervention was met with outrage in Tehran, with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying such a move would cause "irreparable damage" President Donald Trump has promised a decision on whether to join the assault on Iran within the next two weeks. On Friday he cast doubt over the European diplomacy effort, declaring: "Europe is not going to be able to help on this one." Oil prices continued to climb as traders weighed the likelihood of Iran attacking its Gulf neighbours' production and export facilities or even closing the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global supply flows. Motorists are likely to feel the pinch at the petrol pump in the coming weeks. Away from the Middle East bloodshed, investors were focused on two crucial central bank rates decisions. Both held no surprises in the end, with the Bank of England holding its key rate at 4.25% and the Federal Reserve standing pat too. BoE governor Andrew Bailey said the world had become 'highly unpredictable' after a decision that was also heavily influenced by stubbornly high inflation. Finally, Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu sketched out his case for "Remaking Liberalism" – also the working title of his forthcoming book – in a speech on Wednesday at the London School of Economics. Acemoglu, the joint winner of of 2024 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, told a packed auditorium that the old version of liberalism was "dead" as the ideas space was being won by those on the right. "I have become convinced over the last decade that liberalism's enormous successes are being overshadowed by some problems," said the MIT professor. Let's take a deeper dive in to some of the main talking points of the last few days. UK consumers braced for petrol price hikes Oil prices have surged over the past week as Iran and Israel continued to attack each other with missile strikes. Concerns are mounting of a disruption to supply, particularly to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a separating Iran and Oman described as an "oil artery". Tom Pugh, a partner at consultancy firm RSM UK, said the main way escalating Middle East tensions would impact UK businesses and the economy "is through higher oil and natural gas prices". "The most immediate impact will be on prices at the pump," Pugh said. "A $10pb rise in oil prices will probably result in a 5p increase in pump prices over the next couple of months." Bank of England holds interest rates at 4.25% amid inflation fears Members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted by 6-3 to keep borrowing costs on hold after cutting them a month ago. The decision had been widely anticipated by markets, particularly following inflation data for May showing prices rising 3.4% — well above the Bank's 2% target. Investors and economists saw little chance of a rate cut, especially with tensions in the Middle East escalating and pushing oil prices higher. Traders are betting there is an 84% chance that policymakers will cut to 4% at the next meeting. Why the UK's AIM is struggling 30 years on Launched on 19 June 1995, AIM was set up to help smaller and high-growth companies get more access to capital. While it has produced a number of successes, it has also had its fair share of failures. These included "cash shell" Langbar International, which claimed to have £370m in bank deposits but collapsed in 2005 after discovering these funds were non-existent. Another high-profile example was the collapse of cafe chain Patisserie Valerie in 2019 on the back of an accounting scandal. Such disasters led to AIM often being described as the "Wild West". Its troubles are far from over, as dozens of companies representing £12.3bn plan to leave the junior market, shrinking AIM is set to shrink by 20%. The oil chokepoint Iran could threaten — but probably won't For decades, strategists have fixated on the channel linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and open waters. The narrow Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's petroleum and seaborne natural gas shipments, making it the world's single most important passageway for fossil fuel. Iranian is once again threatening to block energy shipments through the strait when involved in some kind of conflict. Such a move would roil energy markets, easily pushing crude prices above $100. But it would also be extremely risky for Iran. "It will be one of the central factors as the US considers whether to join Israel in attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities," Dan Marks of the British think tank RUSI said. Nobel laureate calls for a 'working-class liberalism' In a talk that formed part of the LSE Festival: Visions for the Future, professor Daron Acemoglu said that despite its enormous past success, he's become convinced that the old version of liberalism is dead and needs remaking. Delving into the history and the development of the moral and political philosophy that underpins liberalism, he said it has played a crucial role as a force of good, mostly delivered via a democratic state. "This may come as a shock to some of you, but my view is that right now, new ideas are coming not from the liberal side, but they're coming from the anti-liberal, the right," the best-selling joint-author of 2012's Why Nations Fail, told an enthralled audience. Pension credit is a benefit that aims to boost the incomes of the poorest pensioners. The problem is that, despite government efforts to raise awareness, hundreds of thousands of people who could be claiming it aren't. It not only tops up your income but acts as a valuable bridge to further support, including help with council tax and NHS costs. Pensions columnist Helen Morrissey explained: This under-claimed benefit could help boost your pension Before opening a junior ISA for their child, many parents find themselves wondering – perhaps understandably – how they can be sure they will use the money wisely when they turn 18 and assume control of the funds. The good news is a survey by Hargreaves Lansdown strongly suggests such worries are unfounded. Personal finance columnist Sarah Coles has the details: Why you can trust an 18-year old with their junior ISA Find more personal finance gems here The week will start with the focus on S&P's global manufacturing and services PMI. Despite a slight uptick in May, the reading showed the UK manufacturing sector continued to face tough operating conditions. Economists expect anoter very slight increase in June. Tuesday will see two important speeches from central bank chiefs, in the forms of Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde. The focus turns stateside on Thursday with a slew of data ranging from home sales to jobless claims. The UK will release quarterly GDP data on Friday, with economists expecting the rate of growth to slow to 0.3% from the first quarter's 0.7%. On the companies front, investors will be looking at Nike's (NKE) latest results for any commentary on how tariff uncertainty is impacting the sportswear giant. In the tech space, BlackBerry (BB) is due to report, having warned of uncertainty going into the current financial year. Chipmaker Micron (MU) is also set to release its latest earnings off the back of recently announcing increased investment in its US operations. On the London market, the focus will be on Babcock International's (BAB.L) full-year results, with the company's shares having rallied this year on expectations of more government spending on defence. Another FTSE 100 (^FTSE) stock in the spotlight will be distribution company Bunzl, which is due to update on trading, following a challenging start to its financial year. Read more: Stocks to watch next week Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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6 hours ago
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Middle East tensions put investors on alert, weighing worst-case scenarios
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are mulling a host of different market scenarios should the U.S. deepen its involvement in the Middle East conflict, with the potential for ripple effects if energy prices skyrocket. They have honed in on the evolving situation between Israel and Iran, which have exchanged missile strikes, and are closely monitoring whether the U.S. decides to join Israel in its bombing campaign. Potential scenarios could send inflation higher, dampening consumer confidence and lessening the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. This would likely cause an initial selloff in equities and possible safe-haven bid for the dollar. While U.S. crude prices have climbed some 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 has been little changed as of yet, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks. However, if attacks were to take out Iranian oil supply, "that's when the market is going to sit up and take notice," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. "If you get disruption to supply of oil product on the global marketplace, that is not reflected in today's WTI price and that is where things get negative," Hogan said. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on U.S. involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Analysts at Oxford Economics modeled three scenarios, ranging from a de-escalation in the conflict, a complete shutdown in Iranian production, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "each with increasingly large impacts on global oil prices," the firm said in a note. In the most severe case, global oil prices jump to around $130 per barrel, driving U.S. inflation near 6% by the end of this year, Oxford said in the note. "Although the price shock inevitably dampens consumer spending because of the hit to real incomes, the scale of the rise in inflation and concerns about the potential for second-round inflation effects likely ruin any chance of rate cuts in the U.S. this year," Oxford said in the note. OIL IMPACT The biggest market impact from the escalating conflict has been restricted to oil, with oil prices soaring on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near 5-month high of $79.04 on Thursday. The accompanying rise in investors' expectations for further near-term volatility in oil prices has outpaced the rise in volatility expectations for other major asset classes, including stocks and bonds. But other asset classes, including stocks, could still feel the knock-on effects of higher oil prices, especially if there is a larger surge in oil prices if the worst market fears of supply disruptions come true, analysts said. "Geopolitical tensions have been mostly ignored by equities, but they are being factored into oil," Citigroup analysts wrote in a note. "To us, the key for equities from here will come from energy commodity pricing," they said. STOCKS UNPERTURBED U.S. stocks have so far weathered rising Middle East tensions with little sign of panic. A more direct U.S. involvement in the conflict could, however, spook markets, investors said. Financial markets may be in for an initial selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. DOLLAR WOES An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished U.S. exceptionalism. In the event of U.S. direct engagement in the Iran-Israel War, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. "Traders are likely to worry more about the implicit erosion of the terms of trade for Europe, the UK, and Japan, rather than the economic shock to the US, a major oil producer," Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note. But longer-term, the prospect of US-directed 'nation-building' would probably weaken the dollar, he said. "We recall that after the attacks of 9/11, and running through the decade-long US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the USD weakened," Wizman said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
