The political tug-of-war at the center of Trump's Iran decision: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today's edition, Andrea Mitchell breaks down the critical decision facing President Donald Trump on the Israel-Iran conflict. Plus, Lawrence Hurley examines the questions that a major Supreme Court ruling on transgender rights left unanswered.
Programming note: We're taking a break for Juneteenth tomorrow and will be back in your inbox on Friday, June 20.
— Adam Wollner
By Andrea Mitchell
As President Donald Trump considers whether the U.S. will strike Iran — likely the most important decision of his second term, one that could remake the landscape of the Middle East — allies and adversaries are taking sides, both at home and abroad.
'I may do it. I may not do it,' Trump told reporters outside the White House earlier today. 'Nobody knows what I'm going to do.'
The president openly admired the effectiveness of Israel's initial airstrikes against Iran, even though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly launched his strikes to interrupt Trump's nuclear diplomacy with Tehran.
But after being rebuffed in April when he sought Trump's approval for a joint operation against Iran's nuclear program, Netanyahu could be on the verge of persuading an American president to provide the B-2s to deliver the 30,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs capable of penetrating the concrete fortress believed to conceal Tehran's most dangerous stockpile of nearly-weapons-grade uranium, based on new Israeli intelligence. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on MSNBC today that conflicts with a briefing to Congress this week that the U.S. intelligence has not changed: Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon.
Israel's argument is that it's now or never. It has decapitated two of Iran's proxies — Hezbollah and Hamas — and toppled the Assad regime in Syria, and its retaliatory strikes last year eliminated many of Iran's air defenses. Israel's air force could damage Iran's above-ground nuclear sites and missile bases if it struck now, before Iran repairs its defenses, but can't eliminate the nuclear threat without U.S. bombs and bombers to reach the most critical underground facility.
That has created a political tug-of-war for the heart and mind of Trump, who has publicly yearned for the Nobel Prize, seeing himself as a peacemaker who could bring Iran back into the community of non-terrorist nations and avoid another 'forever war.' Fighting that vision is his competing impulse to join Israel in eliminating the nuclear threat once and for all. And Tehran's leaders clearly misjudged how patient Trump would be with their refusal to compromise in the negotiations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin remains on the sidelines, preoccupied with his own war. Jordan's King Abdullah II and French President Emmanuel Macron strongly oppose U.S. involvement. Trump has been consulting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Gulf's most influential leader.
At home, the MAGA base is divided, with Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., leading the hawks and a growing cohort of Republican isolationists — even in Trump's Cabinet — opposed. Most prominently, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard posted a highly produced anti-war video on her official X account, reportedly infuriating her boss.
Critics worry about unintended consequences of military action, repeating former Secretary of State Colin Powell's rueful warning before the U.S. war in Iraq. It's like the Pottery Barn rule: If you break it, you own it.
U.S.-backed regime change has a checkered past — Iran may be no different, by Alexander Smith
Will Israel's airstrikes cause the collapse of the Iranian regime?, by Dan De Luce and Alexander Smith
by Megan Lebowitz
By Lawrence Hurley
The Supreme Court ruling that upheld a Tennessee law banning certain care for transgender youth left various legal questions open, even as other laws aimed at people based on gender identity, including those involving sports and military-service bans, head toward the justices.
That means that even though transgender rights activists face a setback, the ruling does not control how other cases will ultimately turn out.
'This decision casts little if any light on how a majority of justices will analyze or rule on other issues,' said Shannon Minter, a lawyer at the National Center for LGBTQ Rights.
Most notably, the court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, did not address the key issue of whether such laws should automatically be reviewed by courts with a more skeptical eye, an approach known as 'heightened scrutiny.' Practically, that would mean laws about transgender people would have to clear a higher legal bar to be upheld.
The justices skipped answering that question because the court found that Tennessee's law banning gender transition care for minors did not discriminate against transgender people at all.
But other cases are likely to raise that issue more directly, meaning close attention will be paid to what the justices said in the various written opinions, as well as what they did not say.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

NBC News

26 minutes ago

• NBC News

Israel-Iran live updates: Conflict enters 9th day as diplomacy falters

CONFLICT ENTERS 9TH DAY: Iran sent a missile barrage into Israel early this morning, sending millions into bomb shelters but with no reported casualties. Israel continued to strike military sites in Iran. NO BREAKTHROUGHS ON INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY: A summit in Geneva yesterday with Iran's foreign minister and European leaders yielded no signs of a breakthrough. At the United Nations Security Council, Iran and Israel traded insults in a heated but ultimately inconclusive meeting. U.S. POSITION: Trump dismissed the European effort, suggesting that a diplomatic solution would require U.S. involvement. On Thursday, he opened a two-week window for negotiations with Iran, delaying a decision on a U.S. military strike on Iranian nuclear sites. IRAN AND ISRAEL: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that Iran was not sure it could trust the U.S., and that they would not negotiate 'as long as the aggression continues.' The Israeli military chief said yesterday that the country is ready for 'a prolonged campaign' against Iran. NUCLEAR SITE RISKS: The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, said Israel's strikes on Iranian nuclear power sites have caused some radiological leaks. There is no danger to the public for now, he said,'but there is a danger this could still happen.' HUNDREDS KILLED: Israeli strikes have so far killed at least 630 people in Iran, The Associated Press reported, citing a Washington-based human rights group. The Iranian health ministry says more than 2,500 people have been wounded. The death toll in Israel from Iran's retaliatory strikes remains at 24.

Telegraph

44 minutes ago

• Telegraph

Iranian state media use Lego to demonstrate attacks on Israel

Iranian state media has published a video featuring Lego characters launching destructive missile strikes on Israel. The clip, released by a news agency controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard, shows Lego figures of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu speaking to the Devil before a barrage of missiles rains down on Israeli buildings and citizens. A Lego US president is also shown eating a burger while arguing with the Israeli prime minister. The video is the latest attempt at anti-Western propaganda from Tehran and depicts an Israeli flag burning while Lego figures in other Arabic countries celebrate. 'We're the ones who control the game,' a message at the end of the video says, which was published on social media by Fars, Iran's state-backed news agency. The clip has been published as part of an ongoing propaganda battle between Israel and Iran, as both countries attempt to win support from audiences on social media. Just days ago, an official Israeli government account shared a video on X showing Lego Mossad agents, missiles and warplanes blowing up Iran's nuclear facilities. An Israeli government X account said the video was 'presented by artificial intelligence ... clearly showcasing the precise planning and technological capabilities on the Israeli side'. خططوا لطوفان الأقصى وحصدوا طوفان #إيران. شاهد هذا الفيديو عملية #الأسد_الصاعد يقدمها الذكاء الإصطناعي بلا سردية مسموعة لكن بشكل واضح يستعرض فيها التخطيط الدقيق والقدرات التكنولوجية في الجانب الإسرائيلي والاستخبارات الممتازة التي فاجأت نظام الملالي ودمرت بسرعة هائلة اهداف عسكرية… — إسرائيل بالعربية (@IsraelArabic) June 15, 2025 Both Lego-themed videos were set to the theme song of 'Tehran', a popular Israeli television show about Mossad agents trying to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. It is not clear whether AI tools were used to create the videos. Lego has a long-standing anti-war stance. The company's 'product ideas' page, which encourages Lego fans to submit proposals for new sets, bans products related to 'warfare or war vehicles in any modern or present-day situation'. While some of its products feature potentially violent themes, such as the Star Wars universe or fantasy knights, it has steered clear of modern weapons. Opposed to 'glorifying conflicts' The Danish toy company has previously said that its products should 'not be associated with issues that glorify conflicts'. The Lego-inspired videos follow a flood of fake AI images and videos on social media since Israel's first strikes on Iran on June 12. This includes Iranian influencers widely sharing a fake image of a downed Israeli fighter jet, as well as hoax videos depicting bombed-out buildings with the caption 'Doomsday in Tel Aviv'. The Telegraph reported earlier this week that Israel has been targeting Western audiences with adverts on YouTube warning that Europe could be targeted by Iranian nuclear weapons.

The Independent

an hour ago

• The Independent

Iran and Israel continue attacks as diplomatic talks fail

Iran and Israel traded daytime missile attacks on Friday, concluding a week of relentless bombing and escalating tensions. Iran 's foreign minister stated his country would not negotiate with the US as long as Israel continued airstrikes, maintaining Iran 's nuclear program is peaceful. Iranian ballistic missiles struck a building near Haifa, injuring at least 17 people, prompting a warning of revenge from Iran 's religious ruler, Ali Khamenei. Israel reported conducting multiple airstrikes on Iran, targeting industrial sites for missile manufacturing and a research agency linked to potential nuclear device development. Diplomatic talks in Geneva involving Iran, the EU, and the UK showed no breakthrough, with the UK urging Iran to engage in diplomacy with the US within a two-week window.