Unemployment rate remains at 4.1 per cent for three consecutive months as markets continue to favour July cash rate cut
The unemployment rate has remained at 4.1 per cent for three months in a row as it continues to sit near historic lows since the nation came out of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The data is critical for the Reserve Bank of Australia which will closely examine the unemployment rate ahead of its July cash rate decision when it is tipped to deliver mortgage holders more financial relief.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed employment fell by 2,000 during the month but remained up 2.3 per cent compared to May 2024.
The participation rate remained at 67 per cent while the employment to population rate was steady at 64.3 per cent for May.
EY Oceania chief economist Cherelle Murphy told Sky News the data made the case for a July rate cut as it showed Australia's labour market continued to be strong and there was little risk wages would be pushed up at a time when productivity remained low.
'Overall, the RBA will be pretty happy with this,' Ms Murphy said after the data was released.
'The economy really warrants another rate cut and that's because … both business investment and private consumption is running at fairly weak rates at the moment.
'The stance of monetary policy right now is restrictive ... it's actually slowing the economy down and that is not really appropriate for an economy where inflation is back under control and the private sectors not really spending.'
Following the release of the unemployment data, the odds of a rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets in July has dropped 1.5 per cent to 66 per cent.
Sky News' Business Editor Ross Greenwood said the shift was 'marginal' and the markets were 'not surprised' by the consistent unemployment rate.
'The odds are still in favour of the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates when they meet in just a little under a month's time,' Greenwood said.
The RBA has cut rates twice in 2025 and is likely to deliver further cuts beyond the July call.
It will also examine trimmed mean inflation – the middle 70 per cent of price changes in the consumer price index - which fell back into the RBA's 2-3 per cent target band in the March quarter.
This was the first time since 2021 trimmed mean inflation was in the RBA's target band.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Perth Now
a day ago
- Perth Now
State Aussies are leaving in droves
More people are fleeing NSW than any other state in Australia. Population data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics this week shows 28,118 people left NSW in 2024. Western Australia tipped over three million people for the first time as the resource-rich state recorded the highest nationwide growth rate. At the end of 2024, 27.4 million people called Australia home, an increase of 445,900 on the previous year and representative of a 1.7 per cent increase. Commonwealth Bank economist Lucinda Jerogin said population growth had slowed quicker than anticipated on the back of the post-pandemic peak. This sea of blue is not streaming into the State of Origin, instead they are headed for a Melbourne versus Collingwood AFL match. David Crosling / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia 'A slowdown in natural increase continues to place a drag on Australia's population growth,' she said 'Cost-of-living pressures, rising female workforce participation and broader uncertainty are likely driving this downward trend. 'Growth in deaths are outpacing births leading to the decline in natural increase.' The data shows NSW lost more than 28,000 people to net interstate migration, with 112,763 people leaving for elsewhere in the country. Queensland picked up more than 106,000 people from other states for a result of nearly 26,000 fresh faces. Nearly 40,000 Aussies moved to WA for a net increase of about 12,500 people. Australians continue to leave NSW, destined mostly for Queensland but also WA. NewsWire / Dan Peled Credit: News Corp Australia While Queensland and Victoria's total populations grew by 1.9 per cent, WA's grew 2.4 per cent. The population of every state and territory grew by at least 1.1 per cent, except Tasmania, which recorded a 0.3 per cent increase. 'Within Australia, people are continuing to leave NSW, and to a lesser extent Victoria and the smallest jurisdictions, and head into Queensland and WA,' Housing Industry Association economist Tom Devitt said. 'But even the jurisdictions losing residents interstate are absorbing enough overseas arrivals to see their populations expand.' State governments needed to do more to stimulate housing construction, he said. 'Foreign capital is highly liquid. State governments have forced institutional investors into building apartments in other countries,' Mr Devitt said. 'As a consequence, multi-unit construction volumes in Australia have halved, likely costing state governments tax revenue.'
News.com.au
a day ago
- News.com.au
Aussies exit NSW, WA hits 3 million population milestone
More people are fleeing NSW than any other state in Australia. Population data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics this week shows 28,118 people left NSW in 2024. Western Australia tipped over three million people for the first time as the resource-rich state recorded the highest nationwide growth rate. At the end of 2024, 27.4 million people called Australia home, an increase of 445,900 on the previous year and representative of a 1.7 per cent increase. Commonwealth Bank economist Lucinda Jerogin said population growth had slowed quicker than anticipated on the back of the post-pandemic peak. 'A slowdown in natural increase continues to place a drag on Australia's population growth,' she said 'Cost-of-living pressures, rising female workforce participation and broader uncertainty are likely driving this downward trend. 'Growth in deaths are outpacing births leading to the decline in natural increase.' The data shows NSW lost more than 28,000 people to net interstate migration, with 112,763 people leaving for elsewhere in the country. Queensland picked up more than 106,000 people from other states for a result of nearly 26,000 fresh faces. Nearly 40,000 Aussies moved to WA for a net increase of about 12,500 people. While Queensland and Victoria's total populations grew by 1.9 per cent, WA's grew 2.4 per cent. The population of every state and territory grew by at least 1.1 per cent, except Tasmania, which recorded a 0.3 per cent increase. 'Within Australia, people are continuing to leave NSW, and to a lesser extent Victoria and the smallest jurisdictions, and head into Queensland and WA,' Housing Industry Association economist Tom Devitt said. 'But even the jurisdictions losing residents interstate are absorbing enough overseas arrivals to see their populations expand.' State governments needed to do more to stimulate housing construction, he said. 'Foreign capital is highly liquid. State governments have forced institutional investors into building apartments in other countries,' Mr Devitt said. 'As a consequence, multi-unit construction volumes in Australia have halved, likely costing state governments tax revenue.'
West Australian
a day ago
- West Australian
Aussies exit NSW, WA hits 3 million population milestone
More people are fleeing NSW than any other state in Australia. Population data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics this week shows 28,118 people left NSW in 2024. Western Australia tipped over three million people for the first time as the resource-rich state recorded the highest nationwide growth rate. At the end of 2024, 27.4 million people called Australia home, an increase of 445,900 on the previous year and representative of a 1.7 per cent increase. Commonwealth Bank economist Lucinda Jerogin said population growth had slowed quicker than anticipated on the back of the post-pandemic peak. 'A slowdown in natural increase continues to place a drag on Australia's population growth,' she said 'Cost-of-living pressures, rising female workforce participation and broader uncertainty are likely driving this downward trend. 'Growth in deaths are outpacing births leading to the decline in natural increase.' The data shows NSW lost more than 28,000 people to net interstate migration, with 112,763 people leaving for elsewhere in the country. Queensland picked up more than 106,000 people from other states for a result of nearly 26,000 fresh faces. Nearly 40,000 Aussies moved to WA for a net increase of about 12,500 people. While Queensland and Victoria's total populations grew by 1.9 per cent, WA's grew 2.4 per cent. The population of every state and territory grew by at least 1.1 per cent, except Tasmania, which recorded a 0.3 per cent increase. 'Within Australia, people are continuing to leave NSW, and to a lesser extent Victoria and the smallest jurisdictions, and head into Queensland and WA,' Housing Industry Association economist Tom Devitt said. 'But even the jurisdictions losing residents interstate are absorbing enough overseas arrivals to see their populations expand.' State governments needed to do more to stimulate housing construction, he said. 'Foreign capital is highly liquid. State governments have forced institutional investors into building apartments in other countries,' Mr Devitt said. 'As a consequence, multi-unit construction volumes in Australia have halved, likely costing state governments tax revenue.'
