What next for the SNP? Moving out from under the Branchform shadow
Nicola Sturgeon understandably says she's relieved to no longer be the focus of a police investigation.That feeling will be shared by many in the SNP.This has been a damaging period for the party and one that senior figures accept contributed to its collapse in last year's general election.Ms Sturgeon says she's ready to move on with her life - but will her party be able to do likewise and rebuild its political fortunes?
She described Operation Branchform as a cloud which has been hanging over her for years and that is absolutely the case for her party too.It is still a difficult day - the Crown is pressing ahead with charges of embezzlement against her husband Peter Murrell, a man who was critical to the running of the SNP for 20 years.As chief executive, he played a key role in transforming it into an election-winning machine.But he is not a household name the way Ms Sturgeon is. She's arguably the most famous woman in Scotland, indelibly linked to her party.
Ms Sturgeon resigned in February 2023 and the Branchform investigation unfolded rapidly while Humza Yousaf was trying to get his feet under the table as her successor.It felt as though every time he was lining up an event or a statement to set out his leadership there would be a fresh development in Operation Branchform.That meant the public was largely introduced to Mr Yousaf as the man being doorstepped by reporters, saying things like "of course I'm surprised one of my colleagues has been arrested".The "optics" were also frankly disastrous when it came to a blue police tent being set up outside the home of Mr Murrell and Ms Sturgeon, and officers carrying stacks of boxes out of the party's HQ.The police, incidentally, will forever defend the decision to deploy that famous tent. With the suburban street jammed with photographers and camera crews, they feel they had a duty to shield their sensitive work from view.
In any case, senior figures in the party acknowledge that the investigation was a contributing factor to the huge losses they suffered in the 2024 general election.Mr Yousaf's self-inflicted exit from office, via a row with the Greens, was another. And then there was the UK-wide context of Labour sweeping the Tories from office.But these have also provided the chance for a clean break under John Swinney.He was extremely close politically and personally to Ms Sturgeon. As both SNP leader and first minister, he will hope Thursday's news is a chance to move on.He has already begun to rebuild the SNP's position in the polls, helped by Labour's struggles in adapting to government at Westminster.It has helped that he has not been dogged by daily updates from Operation Branchform the way his predecessor was. Mr Swinney has had a clearer shot at setting the agenda on his own terms.He's now hoping to head into the 2026 Scottish election campaign without constant questions about police inquiries. Ms Sturgeon is not even a candidate.And while being very careful of the legalities, he's also starting to reframe this from something which potentially, allegedly, happened within the SNP to something which potentially, allegedly, happened to it.The SNP has, in its decades in power, proved to be a master of reinvention.From a group happy to do budget deals with the Tories under Alex Salmond, to one allied with lefty Greens under Ms Sturgeon. Mr Swinney will hope he can craft yet another new - post-Sturgeon - identity, in order to retain power next year.
Today was a reminder that, even in an investigation which has been running for four years now, sometimes things unfold very quickly.Just over a week ago Nicola Sturgeon was announcing that she was going to step down from Holyrood next year, closing a 27-year chapter of her life.On Tuesday she released the cover and title of her memoirs, realising her lifelong dream of becoming an author.The fact she can now look ahead to publication day without this investigation hanging over her will be an enormous relief.But there is still a way to go for her estranged husband, and by extension her party.The case against Mr Murrell is going ahead, and remains of huge significance - the allegation of embezzlement by the chief executive of the party of government is obviously a serious one.His marriage to Ms Sturgeon is over, but she will still of course be feeling the impact of this - not least due to the prospect of a potential trial where she could be called as a witness.It remains to be seen where the case goes from here. Mr Murrell has not yet made any plea or declaration, nor would he be expected to at this stage in the legal process.The Crown theoretically has 18 months to move the case along to the next stage, so it is entirely possible this drags out beyond next May's Holyrood election.Ms Sturgeon is keenly looking forward to a new chapter. But it may be months or even years before the book is finally closed on Operation Branchform.
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