Global LNG Suppliers Wager That China's Demand Slump Is Fleeting
Global gas giants are betting the current lull in Chinese demand is temporary, and that the country will underpin their multibillion-dollar investments for years to come.
China's gas imports have fallen in 2025, a decline centered on seaborne shipments of liquefied natural gas that slumped 22% through April from the previous year. Demand for LNG — the fuel carried in super-chilled tankers — is headed for its first annual drop since the height of the pandemic, just as new export projects are slated to come online, led by the shale gas fields of the US.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Wall Street Journal
2 hours ago
- Wall Street Journal
Foreign Students Help Make America Great
The competition for economic supremacy between the U.S. and China is compounded by the view that American trade policy is unbalanced. This has led to some confusion—and perhaps some forgetfulness—about the value of international students to U.S. dominance. President Trump has often expressed support for international students, most recently saying that he has 'always been in favor of students coming in from other countries.' His administration, however, is serving up policy that could restrict the entry of talented immigrants who would become catalysts for American innovation.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Trump Pledge of Quick China Magnet Flows Has Yet to Materialize
(Bloomberg) -- Almost 10 days since President Donald Trump declared a 'done' trade deal with Beijing, US companies remain largely in the dark on when they'll receive crucial magnets from China — and whether Washington, in turn, will allow a host of other exports to resume. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown While there has been a trickle of required permits, many American firms that need Chinese minerals are still waiting on Beijing's approval for shipments, according to people familiar with the process. China's system is improving but remains cumbersome, they said, contrary to Trump's assurances rare earths would flow 'up front' after a June 11 accord struck in London. The delays are holding an array of American industries hostage to the rocky US-China relationship, as some firms wait for magnets and others face restrictions selling to China. That friction risks derailing a fragile tariff truce clinched by Washington and Beijing in Geneva last month, and triggering fresh rounds of retaliation. Interviews with multiple Western buyers, industry insiders and officials familiar with discussions revealed frustration over vague policies in both countries and lingering confusion about what level of magnet approvals from China would trigger Trump to abandon his tit-for-tat export curbs. 'Even if export approvals accelerate, there are so many unknowns about the licensing regime that it's impossible for companies to have a strong sense of certainty about future supply,' said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Research. 'At a minimum, they need to factor in a real possibility that talks could break down again, and exports will be halted.' In response to China's sluggishness on magnets, Trump last month restricted US firms from exporting chip software, jet engines and a key ingredient to make plastic to China until President Xi Jinping restores rare-earth exports. Companies subject to Washington's curbs have halted billions of dollars in planned shipments as they wait for players in unrelated sectors to secure permits from Beijing, which could take weeks or even months to process, given the current pace. Corporate chiefs affected by the export-control spat have sought clarity from the administration on its strategy, according to people familiar with the matter. The Commerce Department — which administers the rules — has offered few details, they added. Oil industry executives have tried to convince Trump officials that blocking exports of ethane — a gas used to make plastics — is contrary to US national security interests, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Business leaders have asked for export restrictions to be removed but that's been unsuccessful so far, the people said. Energy and chemical giant INEOS Group Holdings SA has one tanker full of ethane waiting to go, while Enterprise Products Partners has three to four cargo ships stuck in limbo, according to a person familiar with the matter. That's particularly galling because China has adequate ethane supplies in reserve and can switch to using naphtha from the Middle East and other regions for much of their production, the people said. Representatives from the companies did not respond to requests for comment. Industry figures have consistently told the Trump administration the ethane export restrictions are inflicting more pain on US interests than on China, according to the people. China's Ministry of Commerce, which administers export licenses, hasn't responded to Bloomberg's questions on how many for rare earths have been granted since the London talks. At a regular briefing in Beijing on Thursday, spokesperson He Yadong said Beijing was 'accelerating' its process and had given the go-ahead to a 'certain number of compliant applications.' Access to rare earths is an issue 'that is going to continue to metastasize until there is resolution,' said Adam Johnson, chief executive officer of Principal Mineral, which invests in US mineral supply chains for industrial defense. 'This is just a spigot that can be turned on and off by China.' China only agreed to grant licenses — if at all — for six months, before companies need to reapply for approvals. Firms doing business in the US and China could see recurring interruptions, unless the Commerce Ministry significantly increases its pace of process applications. Adding an extra layer of jeopardy for US companies, Chinese suppliers to America's military-industrial base are unlikely to get any magnet permits. After Trump imposed sky-high tariffs in April, Beijing put samarium — a metal essential for weapons such as guided missiles, smart bombs and fighter jets — on a dual-use list that specifically prohibits its shipment for military use. Denying such permits could cause ties to further spiral if Trump believes those actions violate the agreement, the terms of which were never publicized in writing by either side. That sticking point went unresolved during roughly 20 hours of negotiations last week in the UK capital, people familiar with the details said. Complicating the issue, companies often buy magnets from third-party suppliers, which serve both defense and auto firms, according to a person familiar with the matter. That creates a high burden to prove to Chinese authorities a shipment's final destination is a motor not a missile, the person added. Beijing still hasn't officially spelled out the deal's requirements, nor has Xi publicly signaled his endorsement of it — a step Trump said was necessary. 'The Geneva and London talks made solid progress towards negotiating an eventual comprehensive trade deal with China,' White House spokesman Kush Desai said. 'The administration continues to monitor China's compliance with the agreement reached at Geneva.' China's Commerce Ministry is working to facilitate more approvals even as it asks for reams of information on how the materials will be used, according to people familiar with the process. In some cases, companies have been asked to supply data including detailed product designs, one of the people said. Morris Hammer, who leads the US rare-earth magnet business for South Korean steelmaker Posco Holdings Inc., said Chinese officials have expedited shipments for some major US and European automakers since Trump announced the agreement. China's Advanced Technology & Materials said Wednesday it had obtained permits for some magnet orders, without specifying for which destinations. The company's customers include European aerospace giant Airbus SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Around half of US suppliers to Toyota Motor Corp., for example, have had export licenses granted, the company said – but they're still waiting for those materials to actually be delivered. It's likely some of the delays are transport-related, one of the people said. Even with permits coming online, rare-earth materials are still scarce because overseas shipments were halted for two months starting in April, depleting inventories. Trump's agreement 'will allow for rare earths to flow out of the country for a short period of time, but it's not helping the auto industry because they're still talking shutdowns,' Hammer said. 'Nobody trusts that this thaw is going to last.' For many automakers, the situation remains unpredictable – forcing some to hunt for alternatives to Chinese supplies. Two days after Trump touted a finalized trade accord in London, Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley described a 'day-to-day' dynamic around rare-earths licenses – which have already forced the company to temporarily shutter one plant. General Motors Co. has emphasized it's on firmer footing in the longer term, because it invested in domestic magnet making back in 2021. The automaker has an exclusive deal to get the products from MP Materials Corp. in Texas, with production starting later in the year. It has another deal with eVAC of Germany to get magnets from a South Carolina plant starting in 2026. In the meantime, GM and its suppliers have applied for permits to get magnets from China, a person familiar with the matter said. Scott Keogh, the CEO of Scout Motors — the upstart EV brand of Volkswagen AG — told Bloomberg Television his company is re—engineering brakes and drive units to reduce the need for rare earths. Scout is building a plant in South Carolina to make fully electric and hybrid SUVs as well as trucks starting in 2027. Until the rare-earth supply line is re-opened to Washington's satisfaction, Trump has indicated that the US is likely to keep in place its own export restrictions. Senior US officials have suggested the curbs are about building and using leverage, rather than their official justification: national security. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the measures were used to 'annoy' China into complying with a deal US negotiators thought they'd already reached. Restrictions on sales to China of electronic design automation software for chipmaking are emblematic of the standoff. Those EDA tools are used to design everything, from the highest-end processors for the likes of Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. to simple parts, such as power-regulation components. Fully limiting China's access to the best software, made by a trio of Western firms, has been a longtime priority in some Washington national security circles — and would build on years of US measures targeting China's semiconductor prowess. While some senior Trump officials specifically indicated the administration would relax some semiconductor-related curbs if Beijing relents on rare earths, EDA companies still lack details on when, and whether, their China access will be restored, said industry officials who requested anonymity to speak candidly. Even if that happens, there's worry that heightened geopolitical risks will push Chinese customers to hunt for other suppliers or further develop domestic capabilities. 'The risk is there for the London deal to fall apart,' said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. 'Because rare earths is a very granular issue and mistakes can be made.' --With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy, David Welch, Lucille Liu, James Mayger, Jing Li, Joe Ryan and Nicholas Lua. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From Merck's Q1 Earnings Call
Merck's first quarter results drew a positive market reaction, reflecting operational resilience despite a 1.6% year-over-year revenue decline. Management identified continued strength in the oncology portfolio, especially KEYTRUDA and Welireg, alongside growth from new product launches like WinRevair and Cafaxib, as pivotal to performance. CEO Rob Davis cited 'increasing contributions from our newer commercialized medicines and vaccines and continued advancement of our pipeline.' Merck also managed through significant declines in Gardasil sales in China, emphasizing that underlying global demand outside China remained robust. Is now the time to buy MRK? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $15.53 billion vs analyst estimates of $15.29 billion (1.6% year-on-year decline, 1.6% beat) Adjusted EPS: $2.22 vs analyst estimates of $2.14 (3.8% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $7.72 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.88 billion (49.7% margin, 12.2% beat) The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $64.85 billion at the midpoint Operating Margin: 37.8%, up from 35.7% in the same quarter last year Constant Currency Revenue rose 1% year on year (12% in the same quarter last year) Market Capitalization: $199.1 billion While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention. Geoff Meacham (Citi): Asked how Merck plans to offset tariff headwinds. CEO Rob Davis explained supply chain restructuring and inventory management, emphasizing moves to 'U.S. for U.S.' manufacturing over price increases. Tim Anderson (Bank of America): Inquired about providing long-term guidance beyond KEYTRUDA's patent expiry. Davis reiterated confidence in the pipeline's potential but signaled no immediate plans for detailed long-term projections. Luisa Hector (Berenberg): Questioned the impact of FDA and HHS changes on vaccine approvals. Dr. Dean Li stated that near-term regulatory timelines remain on track, with no delays observed despite agency personnel transitions. Steve Scala (TD Cowen): Sought clarification on Gardasil's global growth outlook and long-term targets. CFO Caroline Litchfield noted the end of Japan's catch-up program and ongoing China headwinds, confirming the previous $11 billion Gardasil target has been withdrawn. Akash Tewari (Jefferies): Asked about the severity and impact of potential new tariffs. Davis declined to speculate on tariff rates but stressed Merck's preparedness through operational and manufacturing adjustments. In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will watch for (1) key data releases from late-phase clinical trials, especially in oncology and cardiovascular programs, (2) the impact of supply chain moves and tariff mitigation on cost structure, and (3) trends in Gardasil and other vaccine uptake outside China. Developments around regulatory filings and ACIP recommendations for vaccines will also be important markers to assess execution and pipeline momentum. Merck currently trades at $79.48, in line with $78.70 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it's free). The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump's presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025. While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we're homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver's seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025). Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Sign in to access your portfolio
