Trouble signs grow for Cornyn in Texas
Sen. John Cornyn's (R-Texas) reelection campaign is facing serious warning signs as new polling shows the state's Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) widening his lead in the Republican Senate primary.
A poll conducted by GOP pollster Robert Blizzard on behalf of the Educational Freedom Institute showed Cornyn trailing Paxton by 22 points among the state's Republican primary voters. The same poll shows Paxton leading among key demographics within the state's GOP primary electorate, including seniors and voters who identified as 'MAGA.'
While Cornyn's campaign has dismissed the findings as biased and as 'silly season' for polling, the findings are the latest in a string of polls showing the longtime incumbent trailing his primary challenger. Texas Republicans say it's another sign that Cornyn needs to ramp up his attacks and spending ahead of February's primary.
'I think those numbers today are going to force Cornyn to go up on air and take a chunk out of Ken Paxton pretty damn soon,' one Republican strategist told The Hill. 'The question is, can he?'
The senator's former campaign manager Brendan Steinhauser noted that Cornyn's team will not hold back in an effort to define Paxton early in the primary.
'I think they're going to have to spend a lot of money early to try and make their case given where we are in the polling right out of the gate,' Steinhauser said.
And Cornyn's campaign has already begun going on offense against Paxton. Last week, the incumbent senator's campaign rolled out four new ads hitting Paxton over money his office gave to several Texas entities, accusing Paxton of 'funding the left.' The spots were part of a five-figure digital ad buy.
Cornyn's allies point out that the primary is in February of next year, which allows ample time to close the gap with Paxton.
'The primary is in nine months,' said Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser to Cornyn's campaign. 'This is going to be a very close race and Sen. Cornyn is fully committed to winning it.'
Mackowiak cited a poll of the race released last week by Texas Southern University as 'the last credible independent poll' of the contest. While that poll showed Paxton holding a nine-point lead in the primary, it also had Cornyn leading hypothetical Democratic candidate Collin Allred by four points and Paxton leading Allred by just two, within the margin of error.
Last month, a Senate Leadership Fund poll showed Cornyn trailing Paxton by 16 points. But in a hypothetical general election poll, Paxton lost by 1 point to Allred.
And even Paxton allies acknowledge it's early in the race.
'Cornyn's folks are right, it is silly season for polling,' said Republican donor Dan Eberhart, who is supporting Paxton. 'But he definitely has an uphill battle.'
A senior Cornyn adviser told The Hill that they didn't expect any movement in the polls until early next year.
'These races don't move much until the end,' the adviser said. 'You'd be wasting money to spend money right now. Cornyn's going to have to spend money though.'
Some Republicans question whether Cornyn will be able to make that case, given the state of the conservative grassroots in Texas. The incumbent senator garnered the wrath of the grassroots in 2022 when he helped lead the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which addressed gun control and school safety, through Congress after the shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde. Cornyn was later booed at the Texas GOP convention that year, and the Collin County GOP voted to censure him.
And in 2023, Cornyn said he believed Trump's 'time has passed him by' in terms of whether he could win another election. Cornyn later endorsed Trump, saying the president 'was right and I was wrong.'
'Holy cow, like how does he ever anticipate climbing back into this in the good graces of a MAGA-led GOP base with those two anchors around his neck?' the unnamed GOP strategist said.
Others note that the latest polling is less about Cornyn and more about Paxton's own popularity with the base, particularly coming out of the latter's impeachment trial in the Texas state House.
Paxton has been a central figure in an ongoing civil war within the Texas Republican Party. In 2023, he was acquitted in 2023 on 16 articles of impeachment amid allegations that he had used the power of his office to aid his friend. The impeachment effort partly led to a campaign by Paxton and his allies in the Lone Star State to purge the legislature of Republicans they saw as disloyal.
Next year's Senate primary is seen as the latest development in that intraparty conflict.
'A lot of Republican grassroots activists and voters like what they see in terms of his leadership at the office of attorney general,' Steinhauser said. 'They see Paxton as someone who is on the right wing of the party and so a lot of the activists are excited about his candidacy.'
'If there was someone else running against Cornyn, maybe even a congressman or a state senator or someone like that, I don't think you would see those numbers,' he continued.
Paxton has painted himself as a victim of the political establishment, in many ways mirroring the strategy Trump deployed in his runs for office.
'I think it's MAGA vs. DC,' Eberhart said. 'Cornyn is a gentler Republican from a past era. Paxton is a fighter and that's what Texas Republicans want.'
Still, it's unclear whether Trump will endorse in the primary. The president is fond of Paxton, but has worked with Cornyn in the Senate.
And even if Trump were to back Cornyn, the internal poll released earlier this week showed Paxton continuing to lead Cornyn. After voters were told to assume Trump would endorse Cornyn, Paxton would attack Cornyn for his past comments on Trump and Paxton would attack Cornyn over working with Democrats on gun safety legislation, Cornyn trailed Paxton 62 percent to 21 percent.
'I wouldn't underestimate [Cornyn],' Steinhauser said, referring to Cornyn. 'He's never lost an election yet in Texas. He still has a lot of loyal voters. I think if Trump stays out of the race, which I think he's going to do, then I think it will tighten up a bit.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
31 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
The Budget Bill Is Creating a Republican Existential Crisis
The Republican budget bill, a $3.7 trillion tax cut packaged with $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, is deeply problematic legislation from almost any perspective — including those of its authors. The Congressional Budget Office has the details about how it will be expensive and ineffectual. But for Republicans, President Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' is creating what amounts to an existential crisis. For half a century, Republicans have been committed to the policy of lower taxes to aid the economy — impervious to any evidence that tax cuts are inefficient and prohibitively expensive. At this point, to walk away from the bill is to abandon their economic raison d'etre.
an hour ago
Support for solar energy, offshore wind falls among Democrats and independents: poll
Americans' support for green energy tax credits and renewable energies like wind and solar power has decreased in recent years, according to a new poll, driven by a softening in support from Democrats and independents. The poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that U.S. adults' support for tax credits for electric vehicles and solar panels has weakened, as well as their enthusiasm for offshore wind farm expansion. While Democrats remain the strongest supporters of these initiatives, the poll reveals signs of growing cynicism within their ranks. The poll results coincide with sweeping changes President Donald Trump's Republican administration is making to regulations related to energy and climate change, including slashing the federal workforce in these departments. And although Democrats and independents have weakened their support for some green energy initiatives, there has not been an increase in support for Trump's energy policies. The poll found only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults — including only 1 in 10 Democrats and about 2 in 10 independents, along with three-quarters of Republicans — approve of the way Trump is handling climate change, which largely tracks with his overall approval rating. About 6 in 10 Democrats, 58%, favor tax credits for purchasing an electric vehicle, down from about 7 in 10 in 2022. Among independents, support declined from 49% in 2022 to 28%. Only one-quarter of Republicans supported this policy in 2022, and that hasn't changed measurably. 'As far as the pollution goes ... the vehicles nowadays put out very little emissions to the air,' said JD Johnson, a 62-year-old Democrat from Meadowview, Virginia, who somewhat opposes tax credits to purchase an electric vehicle. That's partly because he sees the electric vehicle manufacturing process as energy intensive and believes gasoline-powered vehicles have made improvements with the pollutants they emit. The decline in favoring solar panel tax credits was across the board rather than being concentrated among Democrats. 'For solar panels, in all honesty, I don't think they're that efficient yet,' said Glenn Savage, 78, a left-leaning independent from Rock Hill, South Carolina. 'I'd rather see them pour money into research and try to get the solar panels more efficient before they start giving tax breaks to the public. I may be wrong on that, but that's just my thought.' Scientists say transitioning to renewable energies and ditching fossil fuels that release planet-warming emissions are essential to protect the planet. Billions of dollars in project grants for clean technologies awarded during President Joe Biden's Democratic administration have been canceled by the Trump administration, and the offshore wind sector has been stunted by Trump's executive order that paused approvals, permits and loans for wind energy projects. Fewer than half of U.S. adults, 44%, now say that offshore wind farms should be expanded in the U.S., down from 59% in 2022. About half favor expanding solar panel farms, while about two-thirds were in support in 2022. When people are concerned about the economy and their personal finances, environmental issues are sometimes prioritized less, said Talbot Andrews, an assistant professor in the department of government at Cornell University who was not involved in the poll. 'I think it makes people anxious to think about increased taxes or increased spending on environmental issues when the cost of eggs are going through the roof,' Andrews said. Trump has championed the expansion of offshore oil drilling, as well as domestic coal production. Despite a decline in support for expanded renewable energies, the new poll shows that only about one-third of U.S. adults think offshore drilling for oil and natural gas should be expanded in the U.S., and only about one-quarter say this about coal mining. In both cases, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to support expanding these energy sources. Trump has sought to open up national monuments for oil drilling, but more U.S. adults oppose than support auctioning off more public space for oil drilling. Only about one-quarter of U.S. adults favor this, while 4 in 10 are opposed. Republicans are much more likely than independents or Democrats to be in support. The Energy Star program that certifies appliances, such as dishwashers and refrigerators, as energy efficient recently appeared in headlines when the EPA made plans to scrap the program. The blue and white logo is well recognized, and experts say the program has long had bipartisan support until recently. The poll found three-quarters of Democrats support providing consumer rebates for efficient home appliances, compared with 6 in 10 Republicans. Patrick Buck, 54, from Chicago, describes himself as a liberal Republican and is a fan of the consumer rebates for energy-efficient appliances. 'It seems to work in terms of transforming what people have in their houses, because a lot of people have a lot of old appliances and just can't afford new ones,' he said. The poll found only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults are 'extremely' or 'very' confident in the federal government's ability to ensure the safety of their drinking water, the air they breathe and the meat, poultry, fruits and vegetables they buy in grocery stores. About 4 in 10 U.S. adults are 'somewhat' confident in the federal government's ability to ensure the safety of each of these, and about 4 in 10 are 'not very' or 'not at all' confident. The Trump administration has announced plans to roll back rules and policies related to limiting pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, such as rules that limit pollution from power plants and blocking California's efforts to phase out cars that run on gas. The federal government has also cut staff at the Food and Drug Administration, the federal agency tasked with protecting public health and ensuring food supply safety. ___ The AP-NORC poll of 1,158 adults was conducted June 5-9, using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 4 percentage points. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find the AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
an hour ago
What to know about debate over protesters and ICE agents wearing masks amid immigration crackdowns
CHICAGO -- President Donald Trump and his allies have repeatedly called for mask-wearing at protests to be banned and for protesters whose faces are covered to be arrested, with the most recent push following demonstrations in Los Angeles over immigration raids. Legal experts told The Associated Press there are a variety of reasons people may want to cover their faces while protesting, including to protect their health, for religious reasons, to avoid government retaliation, to prevent surveillance and doxing, or to protect themselves from tear gas. With legislative action happening across the U.S., they say it's only a matter of time before the issue returns to the courts. Protesters, meanwhile, have voiced anger over footage of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents covering their faces at immigration raids and masked officers at the Los Angeles protests, calling it a double standard. Here are some things to know about the debate over face masks: At least 18 states and Washington, D.C., have laws that restrict masks and other face coverings in some way, said Elly Page, senior legal adviser with the International Center for Not-For-Profit Law. Since October 2023, at least 16 bills have been introduced in eight states and Congress to restrict masks at protests, according to the center. Many of these laws date back to the 1940s and '50s when many states passed anti-mask laws as a response to the Ku Klux Klan, whose members hid their identities while terrorizing victims. Amid protests against the war in Gaza and the Republican president's immigration policies, Page said there have been attempts to revive these rarely used laws to target protesters, sometimes inconsistently. Trump's calls to arrest protesters for wearing masks came as federal agents were seen donning masks while conducting raids in Los Angeles and other U.S. cities. Democratic lawmakers in California have introduced legislation aiming to stop federal agents and local police officers from wearing face masks amid concerns that ICE agents were attempting to hide their identities and avoid accountability for potential misconduct during high-profile immigration raids. The issue also came up at a congressional hearing on June 12, when Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, criticized ICE agents wearing masks during raids, saying: 'Don't wear masks. Identify who you are.' Republican federal officials have maintained that masks protect agents from doxing. Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin called the California bill 'despicable." Geoffrey Stone, a University of Chicago law professor, said the U.S. Supreme Court has made clear that the right to free speech includes the right to speak out anonymously. But he said how it should apply to protesters wearing masks remains 'an unresolved First Amendment question.' For Stone, that raises a key question: Why should protesters and ICE agents be subject to different rules? 'The government doesn't want them to be targeted because they engaged in their responsibilities as ICE agents,' Stone said. 'But that's the same thing as the argument as to why you want demonstrators to wear masks. They want to wear masks so they can do their 'jobs' of engaging in free speech properly. The same rationale for the officers wearing masks should apply to the protesters.'
