Wall St Week Ahead: Investors to focus on geopolitics, data
Stock investors remain concerned that higher oil prices could stoke inflation and upset plans for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. — Reuters
NEW YORK: Investors will focus on the Israel-Iran conflict and US economic data releases next week to assess the near-term outlook for stocks, as the S&P 500 hovers just below its February highs.
The S&P 500 has rebounded sharply from its early-April selloff, as tariff-related tensions have eased. However, the US benchmark index appears to be taking a breather at some 2.7% below its February closing high. The index has gone 27 trading sessions since coming within 5% of its February high but has not yet set a new record.
Billed as RM9.73 for the 1st month then RM13.90 thereafters.
RM12.33/month
RM8.63/month
Billed as RM103.60 for the 1st year then RM148 thereafters.
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Malay Mail
an hour ago
- Malay Mail
Tariffs, inflation and a shaky job market: US Federal Reserve split on when to cut rates
WASHINGTON, June 21 — The close split at the US Federal Reserve over whether to keep hedging against inflation risks or move forward faster with rate cuts came through yesterday in the first public comments from policymakers following a decision this week to hold borrowing costs steady for now. Rising tariffs are expected to raise inflation over the rest of the year, with a new Federal Reserve monetary policy report yesterday concluding that higher import taxes had already raised inflation for goods even if headline inflation, including services, remains weaker than expected in recent months. But Fed Governor Christopher Waller yesterday said he felt the inflation risk from tariffs was small, and the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting in July, because recent price increases have been moderate while he sees some worrying signs for the job market such as a high unemployment rate among recent college graduates. 'Any tariff inflation ... I don't think is going to be that big and we should just look through it in terms of setting policy,' Waller said on CNBC's Squawk Box. 'The data the last few months has been showing that trend inflation is looking pretty good ... We could do this as early as July.' 'I'm all in favour of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don't want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate,' Waller said. In a Reuters interview, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin took a more tempered view, arguing that with inflation still above the Fed's 2 per cent target after a multi-year battle to contain it, key tariff debates still unresolved, and the unemployment rate at a low 4.2 per cent, there was no urgency to cut rates. 'Nothing is burning on either side such that it suggests there's a rush to act,' Barkin said. 'I'm not in a mood to ignore a spike in inflation were it to come ... We'll have to see if it comes. 'I'm comfortable with where we are ... Core inflation is still over target. Being modestly restrictive is a good way to address that.' San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly had what may be an in-between view, telling CNBC late yesterday a rate cut in the autumn would be 'more appropriate' than a July move unless the labour market falters. While tariffs could give rise to meaningful inflation, she said, there is 'a lot to be said' for the view that businesses will find ways not to pass higher costs on to their customers, tempering any inflation impact. The Fed should not be preemptive and needs to watch where the data goes, she said, but with data in hand showing both inflation and the job market cooling, 'we cannot wait so long that we forget that the fundamentals of the economy are moving in a direction where an interest rate adjustment might be necessary.' The job market is still solid, she said, but 'we're at a point where additional softening could turn into weakening, which I don't want to see, and we can't allow for that to happen because we're waiting for inflation to pop up just around the corner.' The Fed this week held its policy rate steady in the 4.25 to 4.5 per cent range where it has been since December. The Trump administration says the tariffs will ultimately help the US economy, and the president has demanded the Fed slash rates immediately. New Fed economic projections this week, by contrast, anticipate slower growth and higher inflation. Those projections showed policymakers overall still anticipate rate cuts later in the year, a sign they do feel tariffs will raise prices but not in a persistent way. Opinion, however, was closely divided in what Barkin called a 'bimodal' split, with seven policymakers seeing zero cuts needed this year, and eight anchoring the median at two cuts, which aligns with investors' view of quarter-point reductions at the Fed's September and December meetings. Though none of the three identified their specific rate views, their comments sketched their ongoing debate over how seriously and persistently President Donald Trump's efforts to recast global trade will influence the path of prices, jobs and growth in coming months. In a Wednesday press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on any particular outlook at this point, given how volatile the debate around trade has been and how many key decisions remain outstanding. Powell testifies in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as part of regular semiannual hearings on monetary policy, which in this case follows a week of insults from Trump and demands to cut rates, and nervous chatter on Wall Street about the president's plans for the Fed when Powell departs next May. Powell on Wednesday seemed content to wait for more data before resuming rate cuts. 'For the time being we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,' Powell told reporters. — Reuters
The Sun
3 hours ago
- The Sun
Ringgit expected to stay defensive due to Middle East conflict
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to stay defensive within a tight range next week, as traders and investors will continue to observe the military conflict in the Middle East, said an analyst. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said that the Israel-Iran war continues to take centre stage as the United States is still weighing its options to participate in the conflict. 'White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt indicated that President Donald Trump will make his decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.22 per cent to 98.691 points. 'Apart from that, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for May 2025 will also be released next week. On that note, ringgit could stay within a range of RM4.24 to RM4.25 next week,' he told Bernama. For the week just ended, the ringgit gave up its earlier gains at the beginning of the week as escalating geopolitical concerns spurred demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, the market showed a slight sign of recovery at the end of the week, as some investors took the opportunity to return to emerging currencies due to the latest White House announcement regarding the ongoing Iran-Israel war. The ringgit ended the week easier against the greenback, closing at 4.2505/2565 on Friday from 4.2435/2480 a week earlier. The local note traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. The ringgit rose vis-à-vis the Japanese yen to 2.9245/9289 from 2.9448/9482 at Friday's close, went up against the British pound to 5.7356/7437 from 5.7482/7543 previously, but depreciated versus the euro to 4.9000/9069 from 4.8906/8958 at the end of last week. The ringgit traded mostly higher against ASEAN currencies. The local note declined against the Singapore dollar to 3.3088/3140 on Friday from 3.3077/3118 in the previous week, advanced versus the Indonesian rupiah to 259.2/259.7 from 260.2/260.6 previously, and strengthened versus the Thai baht to 12.9727/9969 from 13.0807/1018 last week. Meanwhile, the ringgit also rose against the Philippine peso at 7.43/7.45 compared to 7.55/7.56 previously.
The Sun
3 hours ago
- The Sun
Ringgit expected to stay defensive
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to stay defensive within a tight range next week, as traders and investors will continue to observe the military conflict in the Middle East, said an analyst. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said that the Israel-Iran war continues to take centre stage as the United States is still weighing its options to participate in the conflict. 'White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt indicated that President Donald Trump will make his decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.22 per cent to 98.691 points. 'Apart from that, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for May 2025 will also be released next week. On that note, ringgit could stay within a range of RM4.24 to RM4.25 next week,' he told Bernama. For the week just ended, the ringgit gave up its earlier gains at the beginning of the week as escalating geopolitical concerns spurred demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, the market showed a slight sign of recovery at the end of the week, as some investors took the opportunity to return to emerging currencies due to the latest White House announcement regarding the ongoing Iran-Israel war. The ringgit ended the week easier against the greenback, closing at 4.2505/2565 on Friday from 4.2435/2480 a week earlier. The local note traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies. The ringgit rose vis-à-vis the Japanese yen to 2.9245/9289 from 2.9448/9482 at Friday's close, went up against the British pound to 5.7356/7437 from 5.7482/7543 previously, but depreciated versus the euro to 4.9000/9069 from 4.8906/8958 at the end of last week. The ringgit traded mostly higher against ASEAN currencies. The local note declined against the Singapore dollar to 3.3088/3140 on Friday from 3.3077/3118 in the previous week, advanced versus the Indonesian rupiah to 259.2/259.7 from 260.2/260.6 previously, and strengthened versus the Thai baht to 12.9727/9969 from 13.0807/1018 last week. Meanwhile, the ringgit also rose against the Philippine peso at 7.43/7.45 compared to 7.55/7.56 previously.
