Recession Risk Looms Over a US Stock Market That Wants to Rally

In financial circles, there's an old adage: 'Don't fight the Fed.' That framing makes it seem like the Federal Reserve dictates and the market falls in line. I'd like to change the saying to: 'Don't fight the bull market,' to reflect the current zeitgeist.
Sure, investors can de-risk tactically — by changing sector and country allocations, for example. But unless they're Warren Buffett, money managers are going to underperform if they try and fight for too long against a market that simply wants to go up. This is more true of stocks today than of bonds. But there too, it's hard to make the case for a severe bear market even as the US government's debt pile swells.

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