Ex-Harvard Professor Says His AI Can Predict The Next War: "I Want to Prevent, Not Destroy"

As global tensions rise and conflicts between nations escalate-whether on the battlefield or in cyberspace-many experts and even mystics warn of a looming world war. Yet, this era is not only marked by conflicts but also by rapid technological advancement, especially in AI and machine learning. Amid this dual reality, Arvid Bell, cofounder of Anadyr Horizon, introduces a hopeful concept: "peace tech". He claims his software is designed not to fight wars, but to prevent them.
"I want to simulate what breaks the world. I don't want to break the world," Arvid Bell said.
According to The Business Insider, the former Harvard political scientist begins by noting that Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine had come as a surprise to many political scientists. But his AI software, he says, could predict it.
The world witnesses a surge in global conflict, with alarming developments in Israel-Iran, India-Pakistan, Gaza, and Ukraine. These conflicts have resulted in significant loss of life, highlighting the need for innovative solutions like AI to anticipate and mitigate humanity's destructive tendencies amid rising tensions.
Anadyr Horizon's North Star software uses AI to simulate world leaders' behaviour in various scenarios, predicting their reactions to stimuli like economic sanctions. These "digital twins" can mimic leaders' personalities, even accounting for factors like sleep deprivation, to forecast potential conflicts and prevent wars.
According to Business Insider, he hopes North Star's predictive capabilities will help diplomats and politicians make better decisions about how to negotiate during times of conflict and even prevent wars. Anadyr is a reference to the code name the USSR used for its deployment of ballistic missiles and warfighters to the western coasts of Cuba in October 1962. If President John F. Kennedy had a tool like North Star to preempt the Cuban Missile Crisis, Bell posits, instead of having 13 days to respond, he might have had six months. "We are reclaiming this name to say, 'OK, the next Operation Anadyr, we will detect early,'" he says.

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