After US enters Iran war, the real-time battle comes down to Trump versus Khamenei
Now that the United States has bombed Iran, the world will now witness a battle between Donald Trump, the most powerful man in the world, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, one of the most powerful men in the Shia Islam world.
Trump has decided to directly involve the US militarily in Iran — behind him he has the most powerful military in history. And he also has in his corner the most powerful military in the Middle East — Israel.
For his part, Khamenei has backing him Iran's Revolutionary Guard, a ruthless military and intelligence machine feared across many parts of the Middle East.
Khamenei can also draw on the various proxies that Iran has established and funded over several years — including Shia militia in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as weakened as some of those now are.
In sheer military power terms, Trump will win this battle — in the short term, at least.
In his address to the US after the strikes, he said "Iran, the bully of the Middle East", must now make peace.
"If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier," he says.
"For 40 years, Iran has been saying, 'Death to America, death to Israel.' They've been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs …
"I decided a long time ago I would not let this happen. It will not continue."
What this attack has indicated, yet again, is that the US and Israel are working hand in glove when it comes to the attack on Iran and the attempt to remake the Middle East.
That was indicated last week. Just before Israel began attacking Iran, Trump claimed that he had warned Israel against such attacks because, he said, these could lead to a "massive conflict".
And US officials were due to meet Iranian officials in Oman — that appeared to lull Iranian military leaders in Tehran into a false sense of security. Leaders of the Revolutionary Guard who may normally work and sleep in bunkers were in fact in their apartments, apparently relaxed with the belief that there would be no Israeli attack at least until after the US-Iranian talks.
But Israel used the element of surprise and struck. Trump described their attack as "excellent" and promised that "there's more to come, a lot more".
What looks very much like a double act of artifice appears to have worked again. Only two days ago, Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt read a statement to the media saying Mr Trump would decide what he would do "within the next two weeks".
Again, that may well have lulled Iran into a false sense of pause. And this time it was the US who used the element of surprise.
The reason Israel wants the attack on Iran now is because they believe Iran is at the weakest it has been for many years — and in that they are correct.
Israel feels confident that it has all of its potential combatants surrounding it covered. It has largely de-fanged Hezbollah — previously regarded by Israel as their most-serious threat.
The Houthis in Yemen may continue to cause problems to shipping, but they have also been largely weakened. They ceased firing under a warning by Trump that they would face fearsome consequences should they continue to target shipping.
Before Israel's year-long attacks in Lebanon, Hezbollah was by far the strongest of Iran's militia. The Revolutionary Guard had personally overseen the transformation of Hezbollah — "the Party of God" — from yet another militia in Lebanon to perhaps the strongest non-state army in the world.
Beginning with the famous explosions of its communications systems, Israel systematically dismantled Hezbollah, including the killing of its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.
Hamas, of course, has also been weakened — amid the rubble of Gaza the number and capability of Hamas is seriously reduced, if not now marginal.
None of this means, however, that the Supreme Leader and his Praetorian guard, the Revolutionary Guard, will put up the white flag.
It is not clear how much resilient firepower the Revolutionary Guard or Hezbollah have.
For Khamenei, this is a fight to the death. He's in hiding, and in fear of his life. For Iran's leader, there is a very good reason to be paranoid — the Israelis would not hesitate to kill him if they can find him.
They have made it clear that if they get the chance they will kill the leaders of their enemies — or, as they sometimes say, the "head of the snake".
We will now see what power the various Iranian proxies have. The Shia militia in Iraq and Syria will be top of the list for possible retaliation.
Likewise, with their backs to the military wall, some of the Shia militia may attempt what they regard as "soft targets" — US and Israeli cultural and community centres around the world.
On a trip to Iran last year with the ABC's Four Corners, it was clear to me that while the supreme leader has the title, the Revolutionary Guard has the real power. They control all security, intelligence and defence organisations and have significant ownership in many key businesses, which helps to fund their activities.
The current challenge to Iran's nuclear program and the bombing by the US ushers in the endgame for the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guard, which keeps him in power.
Together they know that if they do not respond, within Iran they will be seen as weak. They will be seen as having left their country defenceless.
And they will have no credibility.
If they do respond, they risk the full wrath of Donald Trump.
In this real-time battle of raw power, it will come down to Trump versus Khamenei.
And at this stage, Trump has most of the cards and most of the bombs.
As to any stability in the Middle East, that now seems further away than ever.
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7NEWS
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B-2 bombers and ‘bunker buster' bombs used in US strikes on Iran
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AU Financial Review
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Iran's Foreign Ministry has accused the US of betraying diplomacy and 'launching a dangerous war against Iran' after the US attacked three nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic, in alliance with Israel's mission. The ministry made the remarks in a long statement posted Sunday morning. "The world must not forget that it was the United States — during an ongoing diplomatic process — that betrayed diplomacy by supporting the aggressive actions of the genocidal and lawless Israeli regime," the ministry said. "Now, by completing the chain of violations and crimes committed by the Zionist regime, the US has itself launched a dangerous war against Iran." US President Donald Trump has described the strikes on the nuclear sites as a 'spectacular success' and warned Tehran of more devastating attacks if it does not agree to peace. After days of deliberation and long before his self-imposed two-week deadline, Trump's decision to join Israel's military campaign against its major rival Iran represents a major escalation of the conflict and risks opening a new era of instability in the Middle East. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated." Trump said in a televised address. In a speech that lasted just over three minutes, Trump said Iran's future held "either peace or tragedy" and there were many other targets the US military could hit. "If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill," he said. The US reached out to Iran diplomatically on Saturday to say the strikes were all the US planned and it did not aim for regime change, CBS News reported. Trump said US forces struck Iran's three principal nuclear sites: Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. He told Fox News six bunker buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, while 30 Tomahawk missiles were fired against other nuclear sites. No radiation has been released outside the nuclear facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an initial assessment on Sunday. "Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran - including Fordow - the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time," the international watchdog announced early in the morning on the platform X. The agency stated that further assessments of the situation in Iran would be provided as soon as more information becomes available. Hassan Abedini, deputy political head of Iran's state broadcaster, said Iran had evacuated the three sites some time ago. "The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres and there are no materials left there that, if targeted, would cause radiation and be harmful to our compatriots," he told the channel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump on his "bold decision". "History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world's most dangerous regime, the world's most dangerous weapons," Netanyahu said. The strikes came as Israel and Iran have been engaged in more than a week of aerial combat that has resulted in deaths and injuries in both countries. Israel launched the attacks on Iran, saying it wanted to remove any chance of Tehran developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Diplomatic efforts by Western nations to stop the hostilities have been unsuccessful. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Saturday's strikes a "dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge - and a direct threat to international peace and security". Both sides' attacks on energy infrastructure, including by Israel on Iran's South Pars gas field and the risk of a complete shutdown of the OPEC member's oil production, as well as Iran targeting shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, have fuelled fears of a spike in oil prices and impacts on economies worldwide. In recent days, Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans have argued that Trump must receive permission from the US Congress before committing the US military to any combat against Iran. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch, a Republican, said "this war is Israel's war, not our war". Republican representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky simply said "this is not constitutional". Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said it was "absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment". At least 430 people have been killed and 3500 injured in Iran since Israel began its attacks, Iranian state-run Nour News said. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed by Iranian missile attacks and 1272 injured, according to local authorities. Iran's Foreign Ministry has accused the US of betraying diplomacy and 'launching a dangerous war against Iran' after the US attacked three nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic, in alliance with Israel's mission. The ministry made the remarks in a long statement posted Sunday morning. "The world must not forget that it was the United States — during an ongoing diplomatic process — that betrayed diplomacy by supporting the aggressive actions of the genocidal and lawless Israeli regime," the ministry said. "Now, by completing the chain of violations and crimes committed by the Zionist regime, the US has itself launched a dangerous war against Iran." US President Donald Trump has described the strikes on the nuclear sites as a 'spectacular success' and warned Tehran of more devastating attacks if it does not agree to peace. After days of deliberation and long before his self-imposed two-week deadline, Trump's decision to join Israel's military campaign against its major rival Iran represents a major escalation of the conflict and risks opening a new era of instability in the Middle East. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated." Trump said in a televised address. In a speech that lasted just over three minutes, Trump said Iran's future held "either peace or tragedy" and there were many other targets the US military could hit. "If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill," he said. The US reached out to Iran diplomatically on Saturday to say the strikes were all the US planned and it did not aim for regime change, CBS News reported. Trump said US forces struck Iran's three principal nuclear sites: Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. He told Fox News six bunker buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, while 30 Tomahawk missiles were fired against other nuclear sites. No radiation has been released outside the nuclear facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an initial assessment on Sunday. "Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran - including Fordow - the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time," the international watchdog announced early in the morning on the platform X. The agency stated that further assessments of the situation in Iran would be provided as soon as more information becomes available. Hassan Abedini, deputy political head of Iran's state broadcaster, said Iran had evacuated the three sites some time ago. "The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres and there are no materials left there that, if targeted, would cause radiation and be harmful to our compatriots," he told the channel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump on his "bold decision". "History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world's most dangerous regime, the world's most dangerous weapons," Netanyahu said. The strikes came as Israel and Iran have been engaged in more than a week of aerial combat that has resulted in deaths and injuries in both countries. Israel launched the attacks on Iran, saying it wanted to remove any chance of Tehran developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Diplomatic efforts by Western nations to stop the hostilities have been unsuccessful. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Saturday's strikes a "dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge - and a direct threat to international peace and security". Both sides' attacks on energy infrastructure, including by Israel on Iran's South Pars gas field and the risk of a complete shutdown of the OPEC member's oil production, as well as Iran targeting shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, have fuelled fears of a spike in oil prices and impacts on economies worldwide. In recent days, Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans have argued that Trump must receive permission from the US Congress before committing the US military to any combat against Iran. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch, a Republican, said "this war is Israel's war, not our war". Republican representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky simply said "this is not constitutional". Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said it was "absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment". At least 430 people have been killed and 3500 injured in Iran since Israel began its attacks, Iranian state-run Nour News said. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed by Iranian missile attacks and 1272 injured, according to local authorities. Iran's Foreign Ministry has accused the US of betraying diplomacy and 'launching a dangerous war against Iran' after the US attacked three nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic, in alliance with Israel's mission. The ministry made the remarks in a long statement posted Sunday morning. "The world must not forget that it was the United States — during an ongoing diplomatic process — that betrayed diplomacy by supporting the aggressive actions of the genocidal and lawless Israeli regime," the ministry said. "Now, by completing the chain of violations and crimes committed by the Zionist regime, the US has itself launched a dangerous war against Iran." US President Donald Trump has described the strikes on the nuclear sites as a 'spectacular success' and warned Tehran of more devastating attacks if it does not agree to peace. After days of deliberation and long before his self-imposed two-week deadline, Trump's decision to join Israel's military campaign against its major rival Iran represents a major escalation of the conflict and risks opening a new era of instability in the Middle East. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated." Trump said in a televised address. In a speech that lasted just over three minutes, Trump said Iran's future held "either peace or tragedy" and there were many other targets the US military could hit. "If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill," he said. The US reached out to Iran diplomatically on Saturday to say the strikes were all the US planned and it did not aim for regime change, CBS News reported. Trump said US forces struck Iran's three principal nuclear sites: Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. He told Fox News six bunker buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, while 30 Tomahawk missiles were fired against other nuclear sites. No radiation has been released outside the nuclear facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an initial assessment on Sunday. "Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran - including Fordow - the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time," the international watchdog announced early in the morning on the platform X. The agency stated that further assessments of the situation in Iran would be provided as soon as more information becomes available. Hassan Abedini, deputy political head of Iran's state broadcaster, said Iran had evacuated the three sites some time ago. "The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres and there are no materials left there that, if targeted, would cause radiation and be harmful to our compatriots," he told the channel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump on his "bold decision". "History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world's most dangerous regime, the world's most dangerous weapons," Netanyahu said. The strikes came as Israel and Iran have been engaged in more than a week of aerial combat that has resulted in deaths and injuries in both countries. Israel launched the attacks on Iran, saying it wanted to remove any chance of Tehran developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Diplomatic efforts by Western nations to stop the hostilities have been unsuccessful. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Saturday's strikes a "dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge - and a direct threat to international peace and security". Both sides' attacks on energy infrastructure, including by Israel on Iran's South Pars gas field and the risk of a complete shutdown of the OPEC member's oil production, as well as Iran targeting shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, have fuelled fears of a spike in oil prices and impacts on economies worldwide. In recent days, Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans have argued that Trump must receive permission from the US Congress before committing the US military to any combat against Iran. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch, a Republican, said "this war is Israel's war, not our war". Republican representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky simply said "this is not constitutional". Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said it was "absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment". At least 430 people have been killed and 3500 injured in Iran since Israel began its attacks, Iranian state-run Nour News said. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed by Iranian missile attacks and 1272 injured, according to local authorities. Iran's Foreign Ministry has accused the US of betraying diplomacy and 'launching a dangerous war against Iran' after the US attacked three nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic, in alliance with Israel's mission. The ministry made the remarks in a long statement posted Sunday morning. "The world must not forget that it was the United States — during an ongoing diplomatic process — that betrayed diplomacy by supporting the aggressive actions of the genocidal and lawless Israeli regime," the ministry said. "Now, by completing the chain of violations and crimes committed by the Zionist regime, the US has itself launched a dangerous war against Iran." US President Donald Trump has described the strikes on the nuclear sites as a 'spectacular success' and warned Tehran of more devastating attacks if it does not agree to peace. After days of deliberation and long before his self-imposed two-week deadline, Trump's decision to join Israel's military campaign against its major rival Iran represents a major escalation of the conflict and risks opening a new era of instability in the Middle East. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated." Trump said in a televised address. In a speech that lasted just over three minutes, Trump said Iran's future held "either peace or tragedy" and there were many other targets the US military could hit. "If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill," he said. The US reached out to Iran diplomatically on Saturday to say the strikes were all the US planned and it did not aim for regime change, CBS News reported. Trump said US forces struck Iran's three principal nuclear sites: Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. He told Fox News six bunker buster bombs were dropped on Fordow, while 30 Tomahawk missiles were fired against other nuclear sites. No radiation has been released outside the nuclear facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an initial assessment on Sunday. "Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran - including Fordow - the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time," the international watchdog announced early in the morning on the platform X. The agency stated that further assessments of the situation in Iran would be provided as soon as more information becomes available. Hassan Abedini, deputy political head of Iran's state broadcaster, said Iran had evacuated the three sites some time ago. "The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres and there are no materials left there that, if targeted, would cause radiation and be harmful to our compatriots," he told the channel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump on his "bold decision". "History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world's most dangerous regime, the world's most dangerous weapons," Netanyahu said. The strikes came as Israel and Iran have been engaged in more than a week of aerial combat that has resulted in deaths and injuries in both countries. Israel launched the attacks on Iran, saying it wanted to remove any chance of Tehran developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. Diplomatic efforts by Western nations to stop the hostilities have been unsuccessful. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Saturday's strikes a "dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge - and a direct threat to international peace and security". Both sides' attacks on energy infrastructure, including by Israel on Iran's South Pars gas field and the risk of a complete shutdown of the OPEC member's oil production, as well as Iran targeting shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, have fuelled fears of a spike in oil prices and impacts on economies worldwide. In recent days, Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans have argued that Trump must receive permission from the US Congress before committing the US military to any combat against Iran. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch, a Republican, said "this war is Israel's war, not our war". Republican representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky simply said "this is not constitutional". Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said it was "absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment". At least 430 people have been killed and 3500 injured in Iran since Israel began its attacks, Iranian state-run Nour News said. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed by Iranian missile attacks and 1272 injured, according to local authorities.
