Indus Water Treaty: India needs a dynamic approach that centres Kashmir, balances concerns
While the Indus Waters Treaty has survived three India-Pakistan wars, the pattern of interaction between the two countries on sharing the waters of the Indus Basin has been conflictual rather than cooperative.
Post- Operation Sindoor, it is pertinent how India recalibrates the link between water and terrorism.
Some claim India has weaponised the Indus Waters Treaty by putting it in 'abeyance', an action that can have regional ramifications. There are also claims that India will now expedite projects on both the western and eastern rivers of the Indus system and that putting the treaty in abeyance can be seen as a political signal rather than legally enforceable action.
Rivers, however, can be actors with agency and not mere pawns in a bargaining game. Climate change, water scarcity, deteriorating quality of the springs that feed the basin and melting glaciers are significantly overlooked in the Indus Waters Treaty.
The treaty perhaps needs to take these factors into account for its future survival. However, its survival itself may now be in doubt.
Pakistan depends on the Indus system for almost 80% of its total irrigation water requirement. No legal groundwater framework binds India and Pakistan and this has impacted nutrition security in both Indian and Pakistani Punjab.
Up to now, India undertook projects permitted by the treaty, using water to which it was legally entitled. After the Pahalgam attack, India can claim that it is not accountable to Pakistan for any project it initiates in the Indus Basin. This will create uncertainties for Pakistan.
Post-Pahalgam, the fast-tracking of five hydel projects in Jammu and Kashmir has raised concerns about the securitisation of rivers and the neglect of environmental clearances, potentially harming the geological landscape and disrupting the hydrological regime.
These projects are: the 800-megawatt Bursar, 260-MW Dulhasti II, 1856-MW Swalkote, 240-MW Uri Stage II, and 930-MW Kirthai II. Uri II faced delays due to objections from Pakistan in 2010.
Putting the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance also highlights New Delhi's frustration with several run-of-the-river projects: Kishanganga, Baglihar, Ratle, and Tulbul, which were stalled in the past by Pakistan.
With the Treaty on hold, India also does not have to share hydrological data or flood information with Pakistan and can withhold critical details regarding exceptional reservoir discharges and flood flows.
Pakistan has responded to Indian action by announcing that it will target any structures built on the Indus River that violate the treaty.
Will these actions lead to conflict escalation? Two scenarios emerge.
First, in the face of Pakistan's refusal to admit to and curtail terrorism directed at it, India might scale up the conflict, and develop a legal case for the material breach citing past practices of Pakistan where the Dispute Resolution Mechanism was not respected. This was done in January 2023. Second, if the situation escalates, New Delhi can spin the narrative to leverage the situation, claiming that the treaty in its current form is unacceptable and needs modification.
However, will India succeed and will Pakistan relent?
First, Pakistan's politics is dominated by the Army. Its Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, also known as Hafiz-e-Quran (someone who has memorised the entire Islamic holy book), has of late been emphasising Pakistan's Islamic identity on both international and domestic fronts. His statements leave little room for improved relations at least for now.
Second, Kashmir is often described by Pakistan as its jugular vein, referring to its strategic importance as the country's weakest point, as also the source of its water and a Muslim-majority region, which it believes should have been a part of its territory after the Partition. Any renegotiating of the Indus Waters Treaty would disrupt this narrative and weaken it by admitting India's right over J&K and the use of its rivers.
Third, acknowledging a link between water and terrorism challenges Pakistan's portrayal as a victim of terrorism and its distinction between 'good' and 'bad' terrorists. Any effort by Pakistan to moderate its stance would suggest that it has previously supported terrorism in India, a claim it has publicly rejected.
Given the complexity of the challenges, a more dynamic solution is needed.
A networked response that weaves geo-strategy with geo-ecology could offer an alternate perspective. A networked approach addresses geological sensibilities, aiming to position the ecosystem as a hub for the engagement of various actors. Local people and communities become important nodes in this engagement, where knowledge systems and interests can create new configurations.
Scientific data and affected ecosystems can also be considered allies in this framework. Geological sensibilities suggest that nature has agency and should be recognised.
India's primary objective should be establishing a holistic set of actions to shape the Indus system, while also combating terrorism and ecological degradation.
Rivers significantly influence the environmental landscape of the Himalayas and are not merely resources to be exploited. Recognising this, one needs to take note of the geological and ecological fault lines of the Indus Basin.
The Indus Basin is prone to significant seismic risks affecting water infrastructure, including dams, barrages, and the Indus system. It also experiences considerable sediment erosion, which can influence hydrological regimes and groundwater quality, which may be disrupted if surface water infrastructure does not consider groundwater aquifers.
An adaptive strategy that views the Indus Basin as a network of rivers, sediments, wetlands, aquifers and biodiversity must be prioritised. The ecosystem should serve as the hub for gathering information, where the Kashmiri voice and agency are equally important.
Thus, positioning Kashmir as the central stakeholder, while balancing ecological, national security and local development needs, is essential.
Critical steps may include reviving traditional knowledge, understanding disaster risk exposure, and addressing the vulnerabilities of horticulturalists and fishing communities.
Contrary to the logic of weaponisation and securitisation, discussions around water governance reforms on the eastern and western rivers of the Indus Basin are also needed. Problematising the current nature-politics divide is important.
In the long run, this will help address complex problems in a non-linear manner, rather than relying on coercive tactics, which may offer tactical advantage but risk alienating moderate voices over time.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
27 minutes ago
- Time of India
Delhi raises a toast to Grand Duke Henri of Luxembourg
Ambassador of Luxembourg Peggy Frantzen with chief guest Tanmaya Lal, Secretary (West), MEA A gathering of diplomats and friends of the Embassy of Luxembourg came together at The Imperial, New Delhi, to celebrate the National Day of Luxembourg. The evening was filled with stimulating conversations and camaraderie over fine food and drinks. Celebrated to mark the official birthday of the Grand Duke of Luxembourg, the National Day reception began on a ceremonial note with the playing of the national anthems of both nations. Relationship of steel In her welcome address, Ambassador Peggy Frantzen said, "The National Day celebrations of 2025 are special, as it is the last one under the current head of state, Grand Duke Henri. This year also marks the completion of his 25 years of reign." Adding, she said, "I hope more people get to know about the friendly and amicable long-time relationship between India and Luxembourg. Cultural ties are evolving, with many artists travelling to showcase their talents, thereby strengthening people-to-people links. Our cooperation in the steel sector started over a 100 years ago and remains an important link and strong base of the India-Luxembourg relationship." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Giao dịch vàng CFDs với sàn môi giới tin cậy IC Markets Tìm hiểu thêm Undo Ambassador of European Union Hervé Delphin and Ambassador of Ireland Kevin Kelly Tanmaya Lal, Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs, who was the chief guest, said, "We send our warmest greetings to His Royal Highness and the people of Luxembourg. From the steel sector, which has been a core strength for a long time, our relationship with Luxembourg has expanded in investment and manufacturing in the fields of IT, fintech, and space. Culturally, with a large population of Indians in Luxembourg, many Indian festivals are celebrated there enthusiastically. " German Ambassador Philipp Ackermann and Swiss Ambassador Maya Tissafi Both the Ambassador and the chief guest remembered the late modernist artist Amarnath Sehgal, who played a pivotal role in cementing the artistic linkages and "promoting cultural understanding" between the two countries. VN Dalmia with the Ambassador of Japan ONO Keiichi As guests mingled, conversations ranged from art and culture to outer space, with many talking about the traditional savoury pie, Rieslingspaschtéit, that was served to the guests. Traditional rieslingspaschtéit and one of Amarnath Sehgal's sculptors On a lighter note, the Ambassador said that she is thankful that this summer in Delhi was a bearable one. "Compared to last summer, it was better this year. I am glad I can go out more and enjoy my walks in Lodhi Garden." Ukrainian Ambassador Dr. Oleksandr Polishchuk and Ambassador of Estonia Marje Luup
United News of India
41 minutes ago
- United News of India
PM Modi receives call from Iran President; calls for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy
New Delhi, June 22 (UNI) Amid the US joining the Israeli attacks on Iran, Prime Minister Narendra Modi today received a call from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian who briefed him on the current situation. PM Modi, while expressing concern at the escalation, called for immediate de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward for restoration of regional peace and security. In a post on X, the PM said: 'Spoke with President of Iran @drpezeshkian. 'We discussed in detail about the current situation. 'Expressed deep concern at the recent escalations. Reiterated our call for immediate de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward and for early restoration of regional peace, security and stability.' A readout of the call, said that PM Modi 'received a telephone call from the President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian today'. "President Pezeshkian briefed PM in detail and shared his perspective on the current situation in the region, especially the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. "PM expressed India's deep concern at the recent escalations. PM conveyed that India was on the side of peace and humanity. In this context, PM emphasised the need for immediate de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward. He reiterated India's support for early restoration of regional peace, security and stability. 'Prime Minister thanked President Pezeshkian for the continued support being extended for safe return and repatriation of the Indian community. The two leaders reiterated shared commitment to continue to work for strengthening bilateral cooperation in different areas including trade and economic cooperation, Science & Technology and people-to-people ties. 'They agreed to remain in touch.' The call between the two leaders came as US President Donald Trump said he had 'obliterated' Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes overnight, joining an Israeli assault in a major new escalation of conflict in the Middle East, even as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran termed the US attack a grave violation of international law that would have 'everlasting consequences'. 'Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest and people,' wrote Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in a social media post, noting that the Israeli and US attacks on Iran came despite ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran. UNI RN
Time of India
41 minutes ago
- Time of India
Third language row: Some are playing politics, says Shinde
Mumbai: Four days after a govt resolution (GR) said Hindi will not be mandatory as the third language for state board Marathi- and English-medium schools from Classes 1-5, deputy CM Eknath Shinde on Sunday said some were indulging in politics over the issue despite clarifications from CM Devendra Fadnavis and education minister Dada Bhuse. He asserted that students can learn a language of their choice. As per the GR, students are free to choose any Indian language as the third language, but in-class learning will be offered only if there are at least 20 students, else those classes will be held online. Shinde said for local body polls, Mahayuti parties will fight together, as they did in LS and assembly polls. He said he maintains good ties with MNS chief Raj Thackeray and there was nothing political about it. Shinde rebutted claims that the Marathi Rangbhoomi Dalan (Marathi theatre hub) project announced by the MVA govt in 2021 has been "secretly cancelled". —Chaitanya Marpakwar
