Iranian Exiles Watch Israel's Attacks With Joy Tainted by Fear

BERLIN—Expatriates flock to the Hedayat bookstore, a hub of Iranian culture on Berlin's busy Kantstrasse, to sample saffron lemonade and sticky pistachio cake, read Persian poetry and criticize the Islamic Republic.
But Israel's strikes on the regime and its nuclear program have driven a wedge into Germany's 300,000-strong Iranian community, exposing a spectrum of hopes and fears for Iran's future.

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CBS News

6 hours ago

• CBS News

Diplomacy's "last shot" to de-escalate Israel-Iran conflict

Diplomacy will have a "last shot" within the next two weeks to bring the Israel-Iran conflict to an end, according to one American and one European diplomatic official, a window set by President Trump this week as he decides whether to involve the U.S. in Israel's offensive against Iran. Those efforts were underway Friday as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with European foreign ministers in Geneva in the face of Israel's ongoing bombing campaign and the U.S. military buildup in the region. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and the top European Union diplomat, Kaja Kallas, attended the Geneva meeting with Aragchi. Lammy had met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff at the White House Thursday. The Geneva meeting lasted nearly four hours — twice as long as scheduled — and afterward, Barrot indicated there would be further talks and told reporters "the problem of Iran's nuclear program cannot be solved by military means" alone. Lammy said, "We were clear: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon." Araghchi, too, spoke after the meeting and said Iran supported continuing discussions. "Iran is ready to consider diplomacy once again," he said, adding, "I stress that Iran's defense capabilities are not negotiable. (But) I express our readiness to meet again in the near future." Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei remains the ultimate decision-maker, and it's not yet clear whether the ongoing Israeli airstrikes and impending threat of U.S. involvement will move him any closer toward a diplomatic off ramp than when Witkoff last offered a proposal a few weeks ago. The U.S. offer, which is still on the table, would have allowed Iran to have a civilian nuclear program if it agreed not to enrich uranium on its soil. Instead, Iran would be able to purchase enriched fuel from other countries. One suggestion involved an Omani idea to establish a regional consortium that would allow enrichment for civilian purposes under monitoring by the IAEA and U.S. Khamenei, 86, is thought to still be battling cancer and is in hiding from the Israeli strikes. He has not responded to overtures from multiple countries seeking to help de-escalate the conflict. It's not entirely clear how functional the Iranian government is at this moment. Internet connectivity and international calls into Iran are difficult to complete, according to sources in the region. Cyber attacks have paralyzed the banking system, and as of Thursday, multiple diplomats acknowledged factors like these have made it more difficult to arrange in-person talks with Aragchi. The ongoing Israeli assault may also make Khamenei fearful about communicating, given concerns about avoiding signals intelligence intercepts that could be used to target him, one diplomatic source suggested. Anything Aragchi discusses with the West will ultimately need the supreme leader's approval, and U.S. expectations for a breakthrough during this meeting are low. But it's a start. It remains to be seen if the conversation in Geneva produced some indication of whether Iran is still open to direct talks with the U.S. — not just the European nations — which is what Witkoff has also been trying to initiate through his own personal outreach, one U.S. official said. Turkey and Oman, as well as European countries including Italy and Norway, have offered to host direct or indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, if Tehran were to choose that path, according to two European diplomatic sources. The Italian foreign minister said Rubio told him Thursday that the U.S. is ready for direct negotiations with Iranian counterparts, and a French diplomat also said Rubio had also conveyed the same message to Barrot. The French foreign minister and secretary of state are expected to speak again after the Geneva consultations. Mr. Trump has expressed frustration in recent weeks that although Iran has come to the negotiating table, its leaders have shown no willingness to actually negotiate. Iran offered no response for two weeks to Witkoff's most recent U.S. proposal and neither declined nor accepted its terms, a U.S. official familiar with the efforts told CBS News. Instead, Iranian leaders issued press statements, but negotiators did not directly engage on the specifics or discuss the terms of the offer. That lack of substantive engagement raised doubts from the Trump administration about whether Iran was engaging in good-faith negotiations or simply running out the clock. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly questioned whether Iran's leaders were playing with Mr. Trump and used that uncertainty to justify his unilateral decision to launch military strikes. Multiple U.S. and foreign diplomats indicated that Mr. Trump did not bless the strikes or explicitly tell Netanyahu he should proceed with them. Diplomatic sources acknowledge that Iran's leaders may also be wondering about the degree of coordination between the U.S. and Israel and may also be uncertain about whether the U.S.-initiated diplomacy was a ruse to justify the use of military force that Netanyahu has long advocated. But one U.S. official maintained that Mr. Trump's interest in diplomacy was genuine, as is his aversion to drawing the U.S. military into a Mideast war — especially without a clear sense of what would come next, should the Iranian regime collapse. U.S. and European diplomats confirmed that there are confidential conversations about who would lead Iran next, whether the nuclear sites and material can be secured, and the potential environmental and health fallout for regional allies from military strikes on nuclear facilities. In the meantime, the president still has the option of choosing to use military force including the potential of using for the first time in history the MOP or massive ordnance penetrator, a 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb, to destroy the underground nuclear facilities at Fordo. In theory, Mr. Trump maintains the ability to launch a strike while he's out of town at his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Friday and Saturday, sources said. A secure suite is set up before he arrives at any out-of-town location, and he also has access to secure communications that would allow him to give an order while en route. While at his Florida golf resort, Mar-a-Lago, he ordered a strike on Syria in 2017, and on an Iranian general in 2020. In the meantime, the U.S. intelligence assessment remains that Khamenei has not ordered the resumption of the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003. But Iran has accumulated a quantity of enriched nuclear fuel that could potentially be matched with an advanced missile or a more rudimentary weapon in short order if the supreme leader ordered it. It remains an open question whether bombing Fordo would trigger Iran's leaders to sprint toward creating a bomb or end the program altogether. and contributed to this report.

Yahoo

7 hours ago

• Yahoo

World Waits As Trump Mulls Direct Military Action Against Iran

As the Israel-Iran war enters its seventh day, U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly edging closer to getting directly involved in the fight. Trump has approved plans to attack Iran, but has yet to give the final order, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday afternoon. You can catch up on our coverage of Israel's Operation Rising Lion, designed to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons and dismantle its long-range weapons capabilities, here. Trump 'told senior aides late Tuesday that he approved of attack plans for Iran, but was holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program,' the publication stated, citing three people familiar with the deliberations. WSJ: President Trump has approved attack plans for Iran, but he is holding off on giving the final order to see if Iran will abandon its nuclear program — Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) June 18, 2025 There's another reported reason why Trump has yet to give the order. He is worried about what would happen if the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs – America's most powerful conventional munition – on Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear facility, but failed to destroy it, Axios reported. 'Pentagon officials told Trump they're confident' that the MOPs would work…but it's not clear Trump was totally convinced,' Axios noted. As we have discussed many times in the past, even the mighty MOP might not be able to completely obliterate Iran's deeply buried and heavily protected nuclear facilities like Fordow. So far, the only aircraft certified to drop MOPs is the U.S. Air Force B-2A Spirit stealth bomber. Israel lacks the means strike Iran's deepest installations and is considering alternative ways of destroying the Fordow nuclear facility should Trump not order an attack. 'Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter hinted in recent interviews that the Israel Defense Forces have options beyond just airstrikes,' Axios explained. 'One could be a risky commando raid. Israeli special forces conducted such an operation last September, albeit on a smaller scale, when they destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria by planting and detonating explosives.' Trump pressed aides on whether the bunker-buster plan to bomb Iran's Fordow nuclear facility will work. Pentagon officials told him they were confident it would. @MarcACaputo and I write for @axioshttps:// — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 18, 2025 The War Zone for years has highlighted that Israel would likely be left to a high-risk ground operation if it were to attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear program without the help of U.S. airpower. I have been detailing exactly this reality for many years. Very risky operation, but it has literally the biggest stakes. Access is key and Israel has heavily degraded Iranian air defenses (not totally), but what happens on the ground is another story and, of course getting out. — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) June 19, 2025 On Wednesday, Trump went public with his thinking, saying he won't really know until the last minute whether he will pull the trigger. 'I have ideas on what to do but I haven't made a final—I like to make the final decision one second before it's due,' he told reporters Wednesday. As we reported earlier on Wednesday, Trump has been more coy about whether he will attack Iran. 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do.' Trump stated. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Gen. Michael Kurilla met with Trump and presented him with military options regarding Iran, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday. Kurilla himself supports joining Israeli strikes JUST IN: CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla met with Trump and presented military options on Iran. Kurilla supports a strike and is deeply familiar with both U.S. and Israeli plans. Sources say Trump would prefer a deal he calls a "surrender," but since that's unlikely, the… — GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) June 18, 2025 Today, 12 U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters landed at Lakenheath Air Base in England, reportedly bound for Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. It's the latest plus-up of U.S. forces that have seen an increase in Navy and Air Force assets. So far, however, the U.S. has only provided defensive support to Israel. American ground, sea, and air-based systems have been helping, albeit in a limited way, shoot down some of the hundreds of ballistic missiles and roughly 1,000 drones Iran has fired. To date, Iran has launched more than 400 ballistic missiles, with just over 20 hitting urban areas, causing casualties and extensive damage, according to a post on X by Times of Israel reporter Emanue Fabian. About two dozen people have been killed and more than 500 wounded. Iran has launched over 400 ballistic missiles and some 1,000 drones at Israel since the start of the conflict on Friday, according to fresh data from the the ballistic missiles, just over 20 impacted urban areas in Israel, causing casualties and extensive damage. 24… — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 18, 2025 Still, the number of casualties is far lower than Israeli officials anticipated, Fabian noted. To defend against these missiles, Israel, with some help from the U.S., has been shooting at them. Israel's interception rate is 90%, with 30 of 370 Iranian missiles impacting Israel as of June 17, the Wall Street Journal reported. You can see the Raptors landing at Lakenheath in the following video made by a plane spotter there. Low-resolution satellite imagery posted on social media seems to indicate that the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is nearly empty. The base is home to a diverse array of aircraft, including a rotating mix of bombers, fighters, refuelers, surveillance aircraft, helicopters, and other airframes. Earlier in the day, we contacted U.S. officials for comment, but they declined. Previously, the Navy moved assets out of Bahrain ahead of any possible Iranian attack. Very interesting: Low-res satellite images show Qatar's Al-Udeid Air Base nearly empty, with aircraft parking areas cleared.U.S., UK, and Qatari jets appear to have been relocated over fears of possible Iranian strikes. — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 18, 2025 Meanwhile, Israel and Iran continue to attack each other. The IDF said it repelled the most recent Iranian missile barrage while launching several more airstrikes. 'The IDF completed a series of strikes in Tehran: Over 20 military targets including nuclear weapons development project sites, and missile production sites belonging to the Iranian regime in the area of Tehran were targeted,' IDF claimed on Telegram. 'Over the past hours, 60 IAF fighter jets, with the precise direction of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, struck over 20 military targets in Tehran.' Israel's nearly complete air dominance has not only allowed its fighters freedom of action, but it has also enabled its aerial refueling jets to move farther east. This has providing fighters more gas to sustain longer operations and to lug much harder-hitting direct attack munitions to strike larger and more heavily fortified targets. So far, the IAF said it has conducted more than 600 aerial refuelings. That's a critical capability, considering Israel has struck targets 1,400 miles away. 600+ Aerial Refuelings in Middle Eastern SkiesSince the beginning of Operation Rising Lion, IAF fighter jets have struck Iranian regime targets deep in by aerial refuelers flying dozens of sorties, over 600 mid-air refuelings have been conducted to date.… — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 18, 2025 Iran's state-run television channel was reportedly hacked, and instead of broadcasting its normal fare, it played anti-regime and pro-revolution messaging. The satellite signal for Iran's state-run television channel has reportedly been hacked, with all channels now playing anti-regime messaging and videos which call for freedom and revolution against the regime inside Iran. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 18, 2025 The U.S. Embassy in Israel has authorized some American diplomats and family members to leave and are now being flown out of the country by the U.S. military, two State Department officials familiar with the matter told ABC News. 'Given the ongoing situation and as part of the Embassy's authorized departure status, Mission personnel have begun departing Israel through a variety of means,' a State Department spokesperson said. The US earlier today evacuated some embassy personnel and family members from Israel on a US military aircraft, sources tell @jmhansler @kylieatwood @OrenCNN — Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) June 18, 2025 As Trump weighs his options, 'the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain plan to hold nuclear talks with their Iranian counterpart on Friday in Geneva,' a German diplomatic source told Reuters. 'The ministers will first meet with the European Union's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, at Germany's permanent mission in Geneva before holding a joint meeting with the Iranian foreign minister, the source said.' In a message on X, Wall Street Journal reporter Laurence Normaan said 'the U.S. is in the picture' in these negotiations. I am told by a source, as @ReutersIran who scooped this said, that the U.S. is in the picture. This is not a purely E3/EU initiative. — laurence norman (@laurnorman) June 18, 2025 This is a developing story. Stay with The War Zone for updates. Contact the author: howard@

Yahoo

7 hours ago

• Yahoo

This is the ‘beginning of the end' for Iran's supreme leader. But what comes next?

In his many years as Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei has gained a reputation for political caution; deep conservatism; and absolute ruthlessness. But above all, he is stubborn. Faced with the killing of numerous members of his military high command, the destruction of swathes of the Islamic Republic's treasured nuclear program and with enemy jets operating freely over his capital, he responded to Donald Trump's demand for surrender this week by declaring: 'The Iranian nation will stand firmly against any imposed war, just as it always has.' 'The Iranian nation also firmly stands against any imposed peace. The Iranian nation will not capitulate to anyone in the face of coercion,' the 86-year-old cleric went on. It is fighting talk. But many believe it is at odds with reality. 'It is becoming clearer every day that this is the beginning of the end of the regime in Tehran,' says Lina Khatib, visiting scholar with the Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative. 'My crystal ball does not tell me how long it will take. But I do not see how the Islamic Republic – as it has been [for] over more than five decades – can survive this war.' Of course, it is not inevitable that Khamenei will fall. But the decisive moment may come sooner rather than later. Trump on Thursday gave Khamenei a two-week deadline to make a deal to end its nuclear programme and defuse the crisis. At the end of the fortnight, the US president will make a decision about 'whether or not to go' – in other words, to send American bombers to join the Israeli assault. Any such move would tip the scales of the conflict even more dramatically against Iran. But what would happen next? Could American bombs provide the shock to ignite a revolution, led by ordinary Iranians fed up with the corruption, mismanagement and repression that has marked the rule of the Ayatollahs? Or could the supreme leader face an internal coup by insiders determined to hold on to power? Might he even fall victim to the strongmen of his own Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who control the bulk of the military and much of the economy? Would his downfall be followed by democracy, military dictatorship, or anarchy? Or might Iranians rally to the flag, unexpectedly giving the Islamic Republic a new lease of legitimacy? 'That is the $10 billion question, and it's clearly at the forefront of everybody's minds,' says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. 'Unless the Israelis are going to put boots on the ground in Iran, a country that has 90 million people and is geographically huge, what will likely ensue is changes within the system at a faster pace, and I think that's what they're trying to push for.' 'They know very well that they cannot engage in regime change, but they're trying to unscrew the bolts and see how the dominoes fall.' It has been reported that Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei on the first night of the war. The US president has since said he knows exactly where the supreme leader is – and in a less than subtle threat to reconsider the Israeli assassination plan, said he was safe 'for now.' On Thursday, Israel Katz, the Israeli defence minister, said Khamenei 'can no longer be allowed to exist' after an Iranian attack struck a hospital in Beersheba, injuring dozens of people. Israeli officials seem to believe the supreme leader's removal might spark an uprising that would bring down the entire Islamic Republic, effectively unwinding the 1979 revolution that brought it to power. Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly called on Iranian citizens to do just that. 'We are also clearing the path for you to achieve your objective – which is freedom', he said in an address (in English) addressed to Iranians after the first wave of strikes killed top leaders. 'Now is the opportunity for you to stand up,' he added. That did not go down well even among most opposition-minded Iranians, many of whom have expressed fury at the Israeli bombing of central Tehran. That said, should Khameini be killed, people may well take to the streets, says Maryam Mazrooei, an exiled artist and photojournalist. 'But one of the main problems for the opposition is that there is no leader. The Islamic Republic has got rid of whoever could be leader now – everybody,' Mazrooei says. The regime tolerates a reformist wing. But over the past decade and a half, regime authorities have systematically jailed, exiled, or killed critics demanding fundamental changes to the Islamic Republic. And now, the disgruntled Iranians, who a revolution would rely on, are currently literally running for their lives. Many have fled Tehran for the relative safety of family homes in the provinces following a series of airstrikes on residential parts of the capital – and Israeli warnings that more are to come. Credit: IRINN And even if revolutionaries take to the streets, the uprising would likely meet stern and bloody resistance. The apparatus of repression that the government has used to suppress previous uprisings remains in place. The IRGC, police, and Basij militia have spent the past few years preparing to crush what they anticipate will be an enormous anti-regime uprising when Khamenei eventually dies. Their raison d'etre is to provide regime continuity. To imagine they would simply vanish or lose their power with Khamenei's assassination is a dangerous simplification. That is not to say a revolution can be ruled out, or that the security services might not split or melt away, as often happens in such moments. But it would almost certainly be violent, and the chance of success is slim. And as Mazrooei notes, there is no Iranian Nelson Mandela or Alexei Navalny behind whom an opposition movement might rally. Maryam Rajavi, the leader of the self-proclaimed National Council of Resistance of Iran, is almost universally despised inside the country. Reza Pahlavi Shah, the exiled crown prince, enjoys the support of a small but fanatical monarchist movement and has offered to act as a figurehead for a democratic some non-monarchists have begun to think of him as the best figurehead on offer. But he is not the most adept politician. He infuriated many this week with an interview appearing to defend the Israeli bombing campaign rather than condemning strikes on Iranian civilians. 'He will emerge bruised and battered by supporting Israel's attack on Iran,' says Dr Vakil. 'The fact that he is calling on Iranians to rise up at a time of a war is tone deaf, and the fact that he is not looking out for Iranians, for civilians, considering the trauma of this experience for the people that are living through it, is reflective of the daylight between his potential leadership and the facts on the ground in Iran.' 'If the Israelis kill the supreme leader, the system will evolve, either constitutionally or through change from within. They're not going to be flying in their leader of choice from the diaspora,' she adds. The Iranian regime is already geared up for a transition of power. Ali Khamenei is elderly and ill. The question of succession already dominates Iranian politics, and several prominent figures are thought to see themselves as candidates to replace him. Before the war, the most likely successor was thought to be Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader's 55 year old son. Like his father, he studied theology in the Holy City of Qom, so he meets the constitutional requirement for clerical training. He is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, giving him revolutionary credibility. And most importantly, he has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, meaning he has the backing of the men with guns. One IRGC member told The Telegraph last year that the corps 'top commanders are speaking very highly of him'. Another said plans had already been made to crush any opposition to his succession. Assuming he is still alive, that the Islamic Republic's constitutional mechanism continues to work, and that enough of his allies in the IRGC have escaped Israeli bombs, he is probably still best placed to succeed his father. Others might take the opportunity for a less constitutional route to power. The Israelis have achieved deep intelligence penetration of the Iranian command structures. Rumours are already flying around Iranian internet users about generals supposedly working for Mossad, or being spirited into Israel just before the bombs hit. But it does not take an Israeli conspiracy to make a coup. It is possible to imagine a delegation of senior Army or IRGC officers, fed up with the old man's intransigence and desperate to make peace, paying a visit to Khamenei and telling him gently that his time is up. 'This has been my prognosis for a while: that either when Khamenei dies or before he dies, some group of people will effectively do some sort of a coup inside the Islamic Republic and come to power,' says Arash Azizi, an Iranian historian. One key candidate was Ali Shamkhani, a key security advisor to Mr Khamenei who was reported killed in the first wave of Israeli strikes, but who was then revealed to have survived the bomb sent for him. His unlikely resurrection is already fuelling the rumour mill. 'He is the head of a really financial, political, military empire. He is really one of those people who has actual power with his person and his network, which is not the case with a lot of others,' says Azizi. 'I think he's in hospital and I think his leg has been amputated. So he is probably not in a very good condition to lead a coup, but you know, he is, he is the kind of guy who could do it.' Like most power brokers in Iran, Shamkhani has close ties to the IRGC – he was an admiral in its naval wing for many years. He also runs his own media empire. Another potential player is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament, former mayor of Tehran, and one-time IRGC air force commander who has made no secret of his presidential ambitions. 'He is very bad at hiding his ambitions to be a sort of strong man,' says Azizi. He has, however, failed in several bids for the presidency. Shamkhani and Ghalibaf represent a class of cynical, ambitious, and wealthy officials who Azizi believes are likely to shape Iran's future. They are defined by immense wealth, ties to the security services, and a pragmatic approach to ideology that reflects the general public's disillusionment with the Islamic Republic's revolutionary creed. But neither of those men are qualified to be a supreme leader – that role is reserved for Islamic scholars – so to seize power they might have to upend the Islamic Republic's Constitution. The exact result – a puppet supreme leader, a formal military dictatorship led by the IRGC, or something else – makes little difference to the bottom line. The IRGC – or at least the factions of the sprawling organisation closest to the winning strong man – would retain and tighten its grip on economic, political, and military power. In the interests of regime survival and personal enrichment, they might give up the nuclear program and usher in a period of relative liberalisation, just as Nikita Khrushchev did away with the worst repressions of Stalin. That would suit Israel – but not the millions of Iranians yearning to see the back of the corrupt and violent gang who have ruled them for so long. And of course, there is no guarantee they would change course. There are plenty of people who believe Khamanei's mistake was not to rush to a bomb earlier. That said, rumours are now swirling about a kind of national-unity government with a more reformist bent. That theory centres on Hassan Rouhani, a former president and security advisor who is the nearest thing the regime has to a centrist. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who negotiated the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, the US and a number of other world powers, and Ali Larijani, a former speaker of parliament, have also been mentioned. That is a lineup that might conceivably end the nuclear program, give up on militarisation and the forever war with Israel, and institute some domestic reform. 'Rouhani is the leader of what you can call a centrist, pragmatic camp. He's Iran's Deng Xiaoping,' says Azizi. 'The problem is, of course, he is a mullah, not a guy with guns. He's not an IRGC guy. The question is, can he, as a political leader, put together enough of a coalition that includes some of the people with the money and guns?' There is of course, another, much darker possibility. If Khamenei falls, but no faction can secure the succession, the country could fall into a period of anarchy – possibly even civil war. Pummelled by Israeli airstrikes, crippled by enduring sanctions, and riven by ethnic, religious, and regional divisions (Persians make up roughly half of the country's population, with about a quarter Azeri or Turkic people, including Khamenei, and the remainder comprised of Balochs, Kurds, Arabs, Jews Assyrians, and Armenians), Iran would effectively be crippled. That might suit Netanyahu perfectly well. A failed state cannot, after all, run an ambitious national project such as a nuclear weapons program. Nor would it be able to continue to project influence across the Middle East by other means. But for those who call Iran home, that would be the worst possible outcome. The truth, say both Dr Khatib and Dr Vakil, is that all bets are off. Iran is facing a moment of incredible volatility. The most likely successor may be someone no one has heard of, and the most likely course of events is one that no one can predict. Those wild cards include the ranks of political prisoners held in Tehran's infamous Evin prison, who would no doubt welcome Khamenei's fall. Even, they appear gloomy about what might follow, however. 'I know that some segments of the people are happy with the [Israeli] attacks, because they see it as the only way to change the failed clerical government,' Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister and vocal critic of Khamenei, wrote on his Telegram channel from behind bars this week. 'But even assuming that the war leads to such an outcome, Iran will be left in ruins, where, most likely, statelessness and chaos will prevail – if the country is not torn apart.'